Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Specificity of Carvalhotingis visenda (Hemiptera: Tingidae) as a biological control agent for cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae) in Australia

Biological control is considered the most suitable management option for cat's claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati, a major environmental weed in coastal and sub-coastal areas of Queensland and New South Wales, Australia. The potential host range of the leaf-sucking bug, Carvalhotingis visenda (Hemiptera: Tingidae) was evaluated on the basis of nymphal survival and development, adult feeding and survival, and oviposition preference using choice and no-choice tests involving 38 plant species in 10 families. In no-choice tests, although adults survived on a few of the non-target plants, no eggs were laid on any of the non-target plants. In no-choice condition, the tingid oviposits and completes nymphal development only on M. unguis-cati. There was also no visible feeding damage on any of the non-target plants. In choice tests, adults showed distinct preference for M. unguis-cati, and the preference level increased over time as the tingids moved away from the non-target plants. At the end of the trial no adults were evident on any of the non-target plants. Host specificity tests confirm that the tingid is a highly host specific biocontrol agent, and does not pose risk to any non-target plants in Australia. This agent has been approved for field release by the relevant regulatory authorities in Australia.

A systematic approach to biological control agent exploration and prioritisation for prickly acacia (Acacia nilotica ssp. indica)

Agent selection for prickly acacia has been largely dictated by logistics and host specificity. Given that detailed ecological information is available on this species in Australia, we propose that it is possible to select agents based on agent efficacy and desired impact on prickly acacia demography. We propose to use the 'plant genotype' and 'climatic' similarities as filters to identify areas for future agent exploration; and plant response to herbivory and field host range as 'predictive' filters for agent prioritisation. Adopting such a systematic method that incorporates knowledge from plant population ecology and plant-herbivore interactions makes agent selection decisions explicit and allow more rigorous evaluations of agent performance and better understanding of success and failure of agents in weed biological control.

Temporal patterns in incidence and abundance of Aconophora compressa (Hemiptera: Membracidae), a biological control agent for Lantana camara, on target and nontarget plants

The membracid Aconophora compressa Walker, a biological control agent released in 1995 to control Lantana camara (Verbenaceae) in Australia, has since been collected on several nontarget plant species. Our survey suggests that sustained populations of A. compressa are found only on the introduced nontarget ornamental Citharexylum spinosum (Verbenaceae) and the target weed L. camara. It is found on other nontarget plant species only when populations on C. spinosum and L. camara are high, suggesting that the presence of populations on nontarget species may be a spill-over effect. Some of the incidence and abundance on nontarget plants could have been anticipated from host specificity studies done on this agent before release, whereas others could not. This raises important issues about predicting risks posed by weed biological control agents and the need for long-term postintroduction monitoring on nontarget species.

Review of approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of weed biological control agents

We review key issues, available approaches and analyses to encourage and assist practitioners to develop sound plans to evaluate the effectiveness of weed biological control agents at various phases throughout a program. Assessing the effectiveness of prospective agents before release assists the selection process, while post-release evaluation aims to determine the extent that agents are alleviating the ecological, social and economic impacts of the weeds. Information gathered on weed impacts prior to the initiation of a biological control program is necessary to provide baseline data and devise performance targets against which the program can subsequently be evaluated. Detailed data on weed populations, associated plant communities and, in some instances ecosystem processes collected at representative sites in the introduced range several years before the release of agents can be compared with similar data collected later to assess agent effectiveness. Laboratory, glasshouse and field studies are typically used to assess agent effectiveness. While some approaches used for field studies may be influenced by confounding factors, manipulative experiments where agents are excluded (or included) using chemicals or cages are more robust but time-consuming and expensive to implement. Demographic modeling and benefit–cost analyses are increasingly being used to complement other studies. There is an obvious need for more investment in long-term post-release evaluation of agent effectiveness to rigorously document outcomes of biological control programs.

The host range of Isturgia deeraria, an insect considered for the biological control of Acacia nilotica in Australia

The geometrid caterpillar Isturgia deerraria was imported from Kenya into quarantine facilities in Australia as a potential biological control agent for prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica subsp. indica (Benth.) Brenan (family Mimosaceae). The insect was then tested on 30 plant species presented to neonate larvae as a no-choice cut foliage test and 13 plant species presented as a no-choice potted plant test. In these tests the insect was able to complete its life cycle on 13 native Acacia spp. and also on Acacia farnesiana and the exotic ornamental Delonix regia (family Caesalpiniaceae). The tests supported field observations that the insect has a host range spanning many leguminous species and as such the insect could not be considered for release in Australia.

Teledermatology: Its use in the detection and management of actinic keratosis

Teledermatology can profoundly improve access to medical services for those who may have limited access to dermatology due to workforce shortages, distance to providers, or limitations in their mobility. Two common ways of teledermatology are differentiated: life synchronous, where patient and doctor communicate directly, or store and forward asynchronous methods, where the patient and doctor provide and assess the medical information independently. Teledermatology has been tested for its safety, feasibility and accuracy for a number of dermatological conditions, including the early detection of skin cancer and is usually safe, feasible and accurate. Studies reported somewhat better results for synchronous than asynchronous methods, possibly because of loss of information if no direct patient doctor contact is feasible. However asynchronous methods are easier to organize, require less sophisticated technology and are more widely accessible, and are more convenient for both patients and doctors. No study to date focused solely on teledermatology of actinic keratosis, but such lesions are typically found during teledermatology examinations for other main target lesions. In studies where such results were reported, actinic keratoses seemed to be readily identifiable for teledermatologists and adequate management and treatment can be suggested within remote consultations.

Use of CLIMEX modelling to identify prospective areas for exploration to find new biological control agents for prickly acacia

Selection of biocontrol agents that are adapted to the climates in areas of intended release demands a thorough analysis of the climates of the source and release sites. We present a case study that demonstrates how use of the CLIMEX software can improve decision making in relation to the identification of prospective areas for exploration for agents to control the woody weed, prickly acacia Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in the arid areas of north Queensland.

Studies on the rust Prospodium tuberculatum, a new classical biological control agent released against the invasive alien weed Lantana camara in Australia. 2. Host range

A strain of the rust Prospodium tuberculatum from Brazil was screened as a potential biocontrol agent against 40 Australian Lantana camara forms and 52 closely related, non-target plant species. Results under glasshouse conditions showed that the Brazilian rust strain is pathogenic to only two flower colour forms: pink and pink-edged red. Macro- and microsymptoms were recorded using 11 assessment categories and four susceptibility ratings. No macrosymptoms were observed on any of the non-target plants.

Estimating cell diffusivity and cell proliferation rate by interpreting IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay data using the Fisher-Kolmogorov model

Background: Standard methods for quantifying IncuCyte ZOOM™ assays involve measurements that quantify how rapidly the initially-vacant area becomes re-colonised with cells as a function of time. Unfortunately, these measurements give no insight into the details of the cellular-level mechanisms acting to close the initially-vacant area. We provide an alternative method enabling us to quantify the role of cell motility and cell proliferation separately. To achieve this we calibrate standard data available from IncuCyte ZOOM™ images to the solution of the Fisher-Kolmogorov model. Results: The Fisher-Kolmogorov model is a reaction-diffusion equation that has been used to describe collective cell spreading driven by cell migration, characterised by a cell diffusivity, D, and carrying capacity limited proliferation with proliferation rate, λ, and carrying capacity density, K. By analysing temporal changes in cell density in several subregions located well-behind the initial position of the leading edge we estimate λ and K. Given these estimates, we then apply automatic leading edge detection algorithms to the images produced by the IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay and match this data with a numerical solution of the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation to provide an estimate of D. We demonstrate this method by applying it to interpret a suite of IncuCyte ZOOM™ assays using PC-3 prostate cancer cells and obtain estimates of D, λ and K. Comparing estimates of D, λ and K for a control assay with estimates of D, λ and K for assays where epidermal growth factor (EGF) is applied in varying concentrations confirms that EGF enhances the rate of scratch closure and that this stimulation is driven by an increase in D and λ, whereas K is relatively unaffected by EGF. Conclusions: Our approach for estimating D, λ and K from an IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay provides more detail about cellular-level behaviour than standard methods for analysing these assays. In particular, our approach can be used to quantify the balance of cell migration and cell proliferation and, as we demonstrate, allow us to quantify how the addition of growth factors affects these processes individually.

Clinging on: a review on the biological control of cat’s claw creeper

Cat's claw creeper, a native of South America and an escaped ornamental, is a serious environmental weed in Australia, South Africa and also several other countries. This paper reviews the efforts made over the last decade to bring about its biological control. The paper describes the weed status of cat's claw creeper in both Australia and South Africa. These two countries have cooperated in developing biocontrol projects and insect agents have now been released in both countries. These insects and other potential agents are described and suggestions made for the future direction of the projects.

Special Issue on Spatial Moment Techniques for Modelling Biological Processes

Over the last two decades, there has been an increasing awareness of, and interest in, the use of spatial moment techniques to provide insight into a range of biological and ecological processes. Models that incorporate spatial moments can be viewed as extensions of mean-field models. These mean-field models often consist of systems of classical ordinary differential equations and partial differential equations, whose derivation, at some point, hinges on the simplifying assumption that individuals in the underlying stochastic process encounter each other at a rate that is proportional to the average abundance of individuals. This assumption has several implications, the most striking of which is that mean-field models essentially neglect any impact of the spatial structure of individuals in the system. Moment dynamics models extend traditional mean-field descriptions by accounting for the dynamics of pairs, triples and higher n-tuples of individuals. This means that moment dynamics models can, to some extent, account for how the spatial structure affects the dynamics of the system in question.

Development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms.

The recent 8th Australasian plant virology workshop in Rotorua, New Zealand, discussed the development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms. Key points of discussion included: (i) the purpose of such a database; (ii) who would benefit from the information in a database; (iii) the scope of a database and its associated collections; (iv) database information and format; and (v) potential funding of such a database. From the workshop and further research, we conclude that the preservation and verification of specimens within the collections and the development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms is essential. Such a collection will help to fulfil statutory requirements in New Zealand and assist in fulfilling international obligations under the International Plant Protection Convention. Sustaining such a database will assist New Zealand virologists and statutory bodies to undertake scientifically sound research. Establishing reliable records and an interactive database will help to ensure accurate and timely diagnoses of diseases caused by plant viruses and virus-like organisms. Detection of new incursions and their diagnosis will be further enhanced by the use of such reference collections and their associated database. Connecting and associating this information to similar overseas databases would assist international collaborations and allow access to the latest taxonomic and diagnostic resources. Associated scientists working in the areas of plant breeding, export phytosanitary assurance and in the area of the conservation estate would also benefit from access to verified specimens of plant viruses and virus-like organisms. We conclude that funding of a New Zealand database of virus and virus-like organisms and its associated collections should be based partly on Crown funds, as it is a nationally significant biological resource.