Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Inter-comparison and performance evaluation of chemistry transport models over Indian region

Aerosol loading over the South Asian region has the potential to affect the monsoon rainfall, Himalayan glaciers and regional air-quality, with implications for the billions in this region. While field campaigns and network observations provide primary data, they tend to be location/season specific. Numerical models are useful to regionalize such location-specific data. Studies have shown that numerical models underestimate the aerosol scenario over the Indian region, mainly due to shortcomings related to meteorology and the emission inventories used. In this context, we have evaluated the performance of two such chemistry-transport models: WRF-Chem and SPRINTARS over an India-centric domain. The models differ in many aspects including physical domain, horizontal resolution, meteorological forcing and so on etc. Despite these differences, both the models simulated similar spatial patterns of Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration, (with a spatial correlation of 0.9 with each other), and a reasonable estimates of its concentration, though both of them under-estimated vis-a-vis the observations. While the emissions are lower (higher) in SPRINTARS (WRF-Chem), overestimation of wind parameters in WRF-Chem caused the concentration to be similar in both models. Additionally, we quantified the under-estimations of anthropogenic BC emissions in the inventories used these two models and three other widely used emission inventories. Our analysis indicates that all these emission inventories underestimate the emissions of BC over India by a factor that ranges from 1.5 to 2.9. We have also studied the model simulations of aerosol optical depth over the Indian region. The models differ significantly in simulations of AOD, with WRF-Chem having a better agreement with satellite observations of AOD as far as the spatial pattern is concerned. It is important to note that in addition to BC, dust can also contribute significantly to AOD. The models differ in simulations of the spatial pattern of mineral dust over the Indian region. We find that both meteorological forcing and emission formulation contribute to these differences. Since AOD is column integrated parameter, description of vertical profiles in both models, especially since elevated aerosol layers are often observed over Indian region, could be also a contributing factor. Additionally, differences in the prescription of the optical properties of BC between the models appear to affect the AOD simulations. We also compared simulation of sea-salt concentration in the two models and found that WRF-Chem underestimated its concentration vis-a-vis SPRINTARS. The differences in near-surface oceanic wind speeds appear to be the main source of this difference. In-spite of these differences, we note that there are similarities in their simulation of spatial patterns of various aerosol species (with each other and with observations) and hence models could be valuable tools for aerosol-related studies over the Indian region. Better estimation of emission inventories could improve aerosol-related simulations. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computationally efficient models for simulation of non-ideal DC-DC converters operating in continuous and discontinuous conduction modes

This paper discusses dynamic modeling of non-isolated DC-DC converters (buck, boost and buck-boost) under continuous and discontinuous modes of operation. Three types of models are presented for each converter, namely, switching model, average model and harmonic model. These models include significant non-idealities of the converters. The switching model gives the instantaneous currents and voltages of the converter. The average model provides the ripple-free currents and voltages, averaged over a switching cycle. The harmonic model gives the peak to peak values of ripple in currents and voltages. The validity of all these models is established by comparing the simulation results with the experimental results from laboratory prototypes, at different steady state and transient conditions. Simulation based on a combination of average and harmonic models is shown to provide all relevant information as obtained from the switching model, while consuming less computation time than the latter.

A Review of Theories and Models of Design

This paper intends to provide an overview of the rich legacy of models and theories that have emerged in the last fifty years of the relatively young discipline of design research, and identifies some of the major areas of further research. It addresses the following questions: What are the major theories and models of design? How are design theory and model defined, and what is their purpose? What are the criteria they must satisfy to be considered a design theory or model? How should a theory or model of design be evaluated or validated? What are the major directions for further research?

Fuzzy Approach to Rank Global Climate Models

Eleven coupled model intercomparison project 3 based global climate models are evaluated for the case study of Upper Malaprabha catchment, India for precipitation rate. Correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square deviation, and skill score are considered as performance indicators for evaluation in fuzzy environment and assumed to have equal impact on the global climate models. Fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution is used to rank global climate models. Top three positions are occupied by MIROC3, GFDL2.1 and GISS with relative closeness of 0.7867, 0.7070, and 0.7068. IPSL-CM4, NCAR-PCMI occupied the tenth and eleventh positions with relative closeness of 0.4959 and 0.4562.

Experimental solubilities of two lipid derivatives in supercritical carbon dioxide and new correlations based on activity coefficient models

The solubilities of two lipid derivatives, geranyl butyrate and 10-undecen-1-ol, in SCCO2 (supercritical carbon dioxide) were measured at different operating conditions of temperature (308.15 to 333.15 K) and pressure (10 to 18 MPa). The solubilities (in mole fraction) ranged from 2.1 x 10(-3) to 23.2 x 10(-3) for geranyl butyrate and 2.2 x 10(-3) to 25.0 x 10(-3) for 10-undecen-1-ol, respectively. The solubility data showed a retrograde behavior in the pressure and temperature range investigated. Various combinations of association and solution theory along with different activity coefficient models were developed. The experimental data for the solubilities of 21 liquid solutes along with geranyl butyrate and 10-undecen-1-ol were correlated using both the newly derived models and the existing models. The average deviation of the correlation of the new models was below 15%.

Joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics: Evaluation of constraints from global tomography models

With the advances in technology, seismological theory, and data acquisition, a number of high-resolution seismic tomography models have been published. However, discrepancies between tomography models often arise from different theoretical treatments of seismic wave propagation, different inversion strategies, and different data sets. Using a fixed velocity-to-density scaling and a fixed radial viscosity profile, we compute global mantle flow models associated with the different tomography models and test the impact of these for explaining surface geophysical observations (geoid, dynamic topography, stress, and strain rates). We use the joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics approach of Ghosh and Holt (2012) to compute the full lithosphere stresses, except that we use HC for the mantle circulation model, which accounts for the primary flow-coupling features associated with density-driven mantle flow. Our results show that the seismic tomography models of S40RTS and SAW642AN provide a better match with surface observables on a global scale than other models tested. Both of these tomography models have important similarities, including upwellings located in Pacific, Eastern Africa, Iceland, and mid-ocean ridges in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean and downwelling flows mainly located beneath the Andes, the Middle East, and central and Southeast Asia.

Bulk Randall-Sundrum models, electroweak precision tests, and the 125 GeV Higgs

We present up-to-date electroweak fits of various Randall-Sundrum (RS) models. We consider the bulk RS, deformed RS, and the custodial RS models. For the bulk RS case we find the lightest Kaluza-Klein (KK) mode of the gauge boson to be similar to 8 TeV, while for the custodial case it is similar to 3 TeV. The deformed model is the least fine-tuned of all which can give a good fit for KK masses < 2 TeV depending on the choice of the model parameters. We also comment on the fine-tuning in each case.

Comparison of the Dynamic Response of a Saturated Soil Between Two Models

By comparing the dynamic responses of saturated soil to Biot's and Yamamoto's models, the properties of the two models have be pointed out. First of all, an analysis has been made for energy loss of each model from the basic equations. Then the damping of elastic waves in coarse sand and fine sand with loading frequency and soil's parameters have been calculated and the representation of viscous friction and Coulomb friction in the two models has been concluded. Finally, the variations of loading wave damping and stress phase angles with water depth and soil's parameters have been obtained as loading waves range in ocean waves.

Comparison of existing poroelastic models for wave damping in a porous seabed

Mechanism of wave-seabed interaction has been extensively studied by coastal geotechnical engineers in recent years. Numerous poro-elastic models have been proposed to investigate the mechanism of wave propagation on a seabed in the past. The existing poro-elastic models include drained model, consolidation model, Coulomb-damping model, and full dynamic model. However, to date, the difference between the existing models is unclear. In this paper, the fully dynamic poro-elastic model for the wave-seabed interaction will be derived first. Then, the existing models will be reduced from the proposed fully dynamic model. Based on the numerical comparisons, the applicable range of each model is also clarified for the engineering practice.

The role of androgens in fetal growth: observational study in two genetic models of disordered androgen signalling.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the role of androgens on birth weight in genetic models of altered androgen signalling. SETTING: Cambridge Disorders of Sex Development (DSD) database and the Swedish national screening programme for congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH). PATIENTS: (1) 29 girls with XY karyotype and mutation positive complete androgen insensitivity syndrome (CAIS); (2) 43 girls and 30 boys with genotype confirmed CAH. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Birth weight, birth weight-for-gestational-age (birth weight standard deviation score (SDS)) calculated by comparison with national references. RESULTS: Mean birth weight SDS in CAIS XY infants was higher than the reference for girls (mean, 95% CI: 0.4, 0.1 to 0.7; p=0.02) and was similar to the national reference for boys (0.1, -0.2 to 0.4). Birth weight SDS in CAH girls was similar to the national reference for girls (0.0, -0.2 to 0.2) and did not vary by severity of gene mutation. Birth weight SDS in CAH boys was also similar to the national reference for boys (0.2, -0.2 to 0.6). CONCLUSION: CAIS XY infants have a birth weight distribution similar to normal male infants and birth weight is not increased in infants with CAH. Alterations in androgen signalling have little impact on birth weight. Sex dimorphism in birth size is unrelated to prenatal androgen exposure.

Orientation-based Continuum Damage Models for Rocks

A general formulation of the Helmholtz free energy used in thermodynamics of damage process of rocks is derived within a multi-scale framework. Such a physically-based thermodynamic state potential has a hybrid, discrete/continuum, nature in the sense tha