Saving and Re-building Lives: an Analysis of the Determinants of Disaster Relief

We analyse both theoretically and empirically, the factors that influence the amount of humanitarian aid which countries receive when they are struck by natural disasters. Our investigation particularly distinguishes between immediate disaster relief which helps the survival of victims and long term humanitarian aid given towards reconstruction and rehabilitation. The theoretical model is able to make predictions as well as explain some of the peculiarities in the empirical results. The empirical analysis, making use of some useful data sources, show that both short and long term humanitarian aid increase with number of people killed, financial loss and level of corruption, while GDP per capita has no effect. Number of people affected had no effect on short term aid, but significantly increased long term aid. Both types of aid increased if the natural disaster was an earthquake, tsunami or drought. In addition, short term aid increases in response to a flood while long term aid increases in response to storms.

Structured RNAs in the ENCODE selected regions of the human genome.

Functional RNA structures play an important role both in the context of noncoding RNA transcripts as well as regulatory elements in mRNAs. Here we present a computational study to detect functional RNA structures within the ENCODE regions of the human genome. Since structural RNAs in general lack characteristic signals in primary sequence, comparative approaches evaluating evolutionary conservation of structures are most promising. We have used three recently introduced programs based on either phylogenetic-stochastic context-free grammar (EvoFold) or energy directed folding (RNAz and AlifoldZ), yielding several thousand candidate structures (corresponding to approximately 2.7% of the ENCODE regions). EvoFold has its highest sensitivity in highly conserved and relatively AU-rich regions, while RNAz favors slightly GC-rich regions, resulting in a relatively small overlap between methods. Comparison with the GENCODE annotation points to functional RNAs in all genomic contexts, with a slightly increased density in 3'-UTRs. While we estimate a significant false discovery rate of approximately 50%-70% many of the predictions can be further substantiated by additional criteria: 248 loci are predicted by both RNAz and EvoFold, and an additional 239 RNAz or EvoFold predictions are supported by the (more stringent) AlifoldZ algorithm. Five hundred seventy RNAz structure predictions fall into regions that show signs of selection pressure also on the sequence level (i.e., conserved elements). More than 700 predictions overlap with noncoding transcripts detected by oligonucleotide tiling arrays. One hundred seventy-five selected candidates were tested by RT-PCR in six tissues, and expression could be verified in 43 cases (24.6%).

Rebellion against Reason? A Study of Expressive Choice and Strikes

In this paper we challenge the conventional view that strikes are caused by asymmetric information regarding rm profitability such that union members are uninformed. Instead, we build an expressive model of strikes where the perception of unfairness provides the expressive benefi t of voting for a strike. The model predicts that larger union size increases both wage offers and the incidence of strikes. Furthermore, while asymmetric information is still important in causing strikes, we find that it is the employer who is not fully informed about the level of emotionality within the union, thereby contributing to strike incidence. An empirical test using UK data provides support for the predictions. In particular, union size has a positive effect on the incidence of strikes and other industrial actions even when asymmetric information regarding profitability is controlled for.

Rebellion against Reason? A Study of Expressive Choice and Strikes

In this paper we challenge the conventional view that strikes are caused by asymmetric information regarding firm protability such that union members are uninformed. Instead, we build an expressive model of strikes where the perception of unfairness provides the expressive benefit of voting for a strike. The model predicts that larger union size increases both wage offers and the incidence of strikes. Furthermore, while asymmetric information is still important in causing strikes, we find that it is the employer who is not fully informed about the level of emotionality within the union, thereby contributing to strike incidence. An empirical test using UK data provides support for the predictions. In particular, union size has a positive effect on the incidence of strikes and other industrial actions even when asymmetric information regarding protability is controlled for.

Market Competition and Lower Tier Incentives

The relationship between competition and performance-related pay has been analyzed in single-principal-single-agent models. While this approach yields good predictions for managerial pay schemes, the predictions fail to apply for employees at lower tiers of a firm's hierarchy. In this paper, a principal-multi-agent model of incentive pay is developed which makes it possible to analyze the effect of changes in the competitiveness of markets on lower tier incentive payment schemes. The results explain why the payment schemes of agents located at low and mid tiers are less sensitive to changes in competition when aggregated firm data is used. Journal of Economic Literature classiffication numbers: D82, J21, L13, L22. Keywords: Cournot Competition, Contract Delegation, Moral Hazard, Entry, Market Size, Wage Cost.

Scheduled Service Versus Personal Transportation: The Role of Distance

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship be- tween frequency of scheduled transportation services and their substitutability with personal transportation (using distance as a proxy). We study the interaction between a monopoly firm providing a high-speed scheduled service and private transportation (i.e., car). Interestingly, the carrier chooses to increase the frequency of service on longer routes when competing with personal transportation because by providing higher frequency (at extra cost) it can also charge higher fares which can boost its profits. However, in line with the results of earlier studies, frequency decreases for longer flights when driving is not a viable option. An empirical application of our analysis to the European airline industry confirms the predictions of our theoretical model. Keywords: short-haul routes; long-haul routes; flight frequency; distance JEL Classification Numbers: L13; L2; L93

Mecanismes de reacció de sistemes catalítics amb èmfasi en carbens de Fischer i quantificació de l'aromaticitat en petites molècules inorgàniques cícliques i planes.

El tema principal del treball és sobre l'estudi teòric de l'estructura i reactivitat en carbens de Fischer de la forma (CO)5Cr=C(X)R (X= OH, NH2, OMe, NMe2 i R= CHCH2 i Ph). Particularment, el nostre interès va sorgir del tipus de reaccions de cicloadicció que donen lloc a la síntesi de productes naturals i fàrmacs de gran valor afegit. Hem estudiat els mecanismes de reacció dels casos més comuns de cicloanul•lació: la reacció de benzanul•lació de Dötz i ciclopentanulacions que es troben en competència amb el primer cas, derivats de l'inserció de acetilè i fenilacetilè. En l'últim pas de les reaccions que comporten la formació d'un sistema de més d'un anell, hi tenim una migració del complex metàl•lic de crom d'un extrem a un altre anomenat com rearranjament haptotròpic. Aleshores, hem investigat sobre els mecanismes de migració haptotròpica de Cr(CO)3 sobre hidrocarburs aromàtics policíclics analitzant l'efecte de la mida i la curvatura del sistema així com la complexació d'un segon fragment metàl•lic a la manera de coordinació als anells. D'una altre banda, vam estudiar l'aromaticitat en 54 cúmuls cíclics de molecules inorgàniques mitjançant metodologia desenvolupada al nostre grup de recerca i altres. Vam proposar la tècnica del scan-NICS com nova mesura quantitativa d'aromaticitat i reportar l'escassa correlació entre els distints índexs d'aromaticitat a la literatura. Finalment, com resultat de col•laboracions en estades de recerca, he desenvolupat propostes de mecanismes de reacció en sistemes catalítics de isonitrils i fosfinetà-amides i en dímers de gassos nobles.

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Developing a predictive understanding of subsurface flow and transport is complicated by the disparity of scales across which controlling hydrological properties and processes span. Conventional techniques for characterizing hydrogeological properties (such as pumping, slug, and flowmeter tests) typically rely on borehole access to the subsurface. Because their spatial extent is commonly limited to the vicinity near the wellbores, these methods often cannot provide sufficient information to describe key controls on subsurface flow and transport. The field of hydrogeophysics has evolved in recent years to explore the potential that geophysical methods hold for improving the quantification of subsurface properties and processes relevant for hydrological investigations. This chapter is intended to familiarize hydrogeologists and water-resource professionals with the state of the art as well as existing challenges associated with hydrogeophysics. We provide a review of the key components of hydrogeophysical studies, which include: geophysical methods commonly used for shallow subsurface characterization; petrophysical relationships used to link the geophysical properties to hydrological properties and state variables; and estimation or inversion methods used to integrate hydrological and geophysical measurements in a consistent manner. We demonstrate the use of these different geophysical methods, petrophysical relationships, and estimation approaches through several field-scale case studies. Among other applications, the case studies illustrate the use of hydrogeophysical approaches to quantify subsurface architecture that influence flow (such as hydrostratigraphy and preferential pathways); delineate anomalous subsurface fluid bodies (such as contaminant plumes); monitor hydrological processes (such as infiltration, freshwater-seawater interface dynamics, and flow through fractures); and estimate hydrological properties (such as hydraulic conductivity) and state variables (such as water content). The case studies have been chosen to illustrate how hydrogeophysical approaches can yield insights about complex subsurface hydrological processes, provide input that improves flow and transport predictions, and provide quantitative information over field-relevant spatial scales. The chapter concludes by describing existing hydrogeophysical challenges and associated research needs. In particular, we identify the area of quantitative watershed hydrogeophysics as a frontier area, where significant effort is required to advance the estimation of hydrological properties and processes (and their uncertainties) over spatial scales relevant to the management of water resources and contaminants.

Mafia in the ballot box

We study the impact of organized crime on electoral competition. Assuming that the mafia is able to bring votes to the supported party in exchange of money, we show that (i) the strongest party is willing to pay the highest price to secure mafia services; (ii) the volume of electoral trade with the mafia increases with political competition and with the efficiency of the mafia. Studying in detail parliamentary elections in Sicily for the period 1946- 1992, we document the significant support given by the Sicilian Mafia to the Christian Democratic party, starting at least from the 1970s. This is consistent with our theoretical predictions, as political competition became much tighter during the 1970s and the Sicilian mafia experienced an extensive centralization process towards the end of the 1960s, which increased substantially its control of the territory. We also provide evidence that in exchange for its electoral support the mafia got economic advantages for its activities in the construction industry.

Macroeconomics: Science or Faith Based Discipline?

Whether or not macroeconomics is a science depends on the scientific nature of macroeconomic theories and how the discipline responds when the empirical evidence fails to match the underlying assumptions and predictions of the theories. By way of an example, four conditions for macroeconomics to be a science are developed and used to examine the 'modern' theories of the Phillips curve. It is found that while the discipline in general maintains one condition it routinely violates the other three. This suggests the macroeconomics discipline has some way to go before it can call itself a 'pure science.'

Overtime Working and Contract Efficiency

We present a wage-hours contract designed to minimize costly turnover given investments in specific training combined with firm and worker information asymmetries. It may be optimal for the parties to work ‘long hours’ remunerated at premium rates for guaranteed overtime hours. Based on British plant and machine operatives, we test three predictions. First, trained workers with longer tenure are more likely to work overtime. Second, hourly overtime pay exceeds the value of marginal product while the basic hourly wage is less than the value of marginal product. Third, the basic hourly wage is negatively related to the overtime premium.

The Effects of Experience on Preference Uncertainty: Theory and Empirics for Public and Quasi-Public Environmental Goods

This paper develop and estimates a model of demand estimation for environmental public goods which allows for consumers to learn about their preferences through consumption experiences. We develop a theoretical model of Bayesian updating, perform comparative statics over the model, and show how the theoretical model can be consistently incorporated into a reduced form econometric model. We then estimate the model using data collected for two environmental goods. We find that the predictions of the theoretical exercise that additional experience makes consumers more certain over their preferences in both mean and variance are supported in each case.

An Empirical Examination of the R&D Boundaries of the Firm - A Problem-Solving Perspective

We consider, both theoretically and empirically, how different organization modes are aligned to govern the efficient solving of technological problems. The data set is a sample from the Chinese consumer electronics industry. Following mainly the problem solving perspective (PSP) within the knowledge based view (KBV), we develop and test several PSP and KBV hypotheses, in conjunction with competing transaction cost economics (TCE) alternatives, in an examination of the determinants of the R&D organization mode. The results show that a firm’s existing knowledge base is the single most important explanatory variable. Problem complexity and decomposability are also found to be important, consistent with the theoretical predictions of the PSP, but it is suggested that these two dimensions need to be treated as separate variables. TCE hypotheses also receive some support, but the estimation results seem more supportive of the PSP and the KBV than the TCE.

Dominance Solvable Games with Multiple Payoff Criteria.

Two logically distinct and permissive extensions of iterative weak dominance are introduced for games with possibly vector-valued payoffs. The first, iterative partial dominance, builds on an easy-to check condition but may lead to solutions that do not include any (generalized) Nash equilibria. However, the second and intuitively more demanding extension, iterative essential dominance, is shown to be an equilibrium refinement. The latter result includes Moulin’s (1979) classic theorem as a special case when all players’ payoffs are real-valued. Therefore, essential dominance solvability can be a useful solution concept for making sharper predictions in multicriteria games that feature a plethora of equilibria.

Prognostication after cardiac arrest and hypothermia: a prospective study.

Current American Academy of Neurology (AAN) guidelines for outcome prediction in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest (CA) have been validated before the therapeutic hypothermia era (TH). We undertook this study to verify the prognostic value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in the TH setting. A total of 111 consecutive comatose survivors of CA treated with TH were prospectively studied over a 3-year period. Neurological examination, electroencephalography (EEG), and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) were performed immediately after TH, at normothermia and off sedation. Neurological recovery was assessed at 3 to 6 months, using Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). Three clinical variables, assessed within 72 hours after CA, showed higher false-positive mortality predictions as compared with the AAN guidelines: incomplete brainstem reflexes recovery (4% vs 0%), myoclonus (7% vs 0%), and absent motor response to pain (24% vs 0%). Furthermore, unreactive EEG background was incompatible with good long-term neurological recovery (CPC 1-2) and strongly associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio for death, 15.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.3-71.9). The presence of at least 2 independent predictors out of 4 (incomplete brainstem reflexes, myoclonus, unreactive EEG, and absent cortical SSEP) accurately predicted poor long-term neurological recovery (positive predictive value = 1.00); EEG reactivity significantly improved the prognostication. Our data show that TH may modify outcome prediction after CA, implying that some clinical features should be interpreted with more caution in this setting as compared with the AAN guidelines. EEG background reactivity is useful in determining the prognosis after CA treated with TH.