Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Combining the rational and relational perspectives of electronic trading

Many organisations make extensive use of electronic linkages to facilitate their trading exchanges with partners such as suppliers, distributors and customers. This research explores how the use of inter-organisational systems (IOS) both affects, and is affected by, the relationships between trading partners. In doing this, it brings together two existing but distinct perspectives and literatures; the rational view informed by IOS research, and the behavioural or relationship perspective embodied in inter-organisational relationships (IOR) literature. The research was undertaken in the European paper industry by means of six dyadic case studies. The dyads studied covered both traditional electronic data interchange systems and newer e-marketplace environments. A framework was derived from existing literature that integrates the two perspectives of interest. The framework was used to analyse the case studies undertaken and enabled the inter-relationship between IOS use and IOR to be explained.

Statistical classification of road pavements using near field vehicle rolling noise measurements

Low noise surfaces have been increasingly considered as a viable and cost-effective alternative to acoustical barriers. However, road planners and administrators frequently lack information on the correlation between the type of road surface and the resulting noise emission profile. To address this problem, a method to identify and classify different types of road pavements was developed, whereby near field road noise is analyzed using statistical learning methods. The vehicle rolling sound signal near the tires and close to the road surface was acquired by two microphones in a special arrangement which implements the Close-Proximity method. A set of features, characterizing the properties of the road pavement, was extracted from the corresponding sound profiles. A feature selection method was used to automatically select those that are most relevant in predicting the type of pavement, while reducing the computational cost. A set of different types of road pavement segments were tested and the performance of the classifier was evaluated. Results of pavement classification performed during a road journey are presented on a map, together with geographical data. This procedure leads to a considerable improvement in the quality of road pavement noise data, thereby increasing the accuracy of road traffic noise prediction models.

Adaptive deblocking filter for transform domain Wyner-Ziv video coding

Wyner-Ziv (WZ) video coding is a particular case of distributed video coding, the recent video coding paradigm based on the Slepian-Wolf and Wyner-Ziv theorems that exploits the source correlation at the decoder and not at the encoder as in predictive video coding. Although many improvements have been done over the last years, the performance of the state-of-the-art WZ video codecs still did not reach the performance of state-of-the-art predictive video codecs, especially for high and complex motion video content. This is also true in terms of subjective image quality mainly because of a considerable amount of blocking artefacts present in the decoded WZ video frames. This paper proposes an adaptive deblocking filter to improve both the subjective and objective qualities of the WZ frames in a transform domain WZ video codec. The proposed filter is an adaptation of the advanced deblocking filter defined in the H.264/AVC (advanced video coding) standard to a WZ video codec. The results obtained confirm the subjective quality improvement and objective quality gains that can go up to 0.63 dB in the overall for sequences with high motion content when large group of pictures are used.

Statistical motion learning for improved transform domain Wyner-Ziv video coding

Wyner - Ziv (WZ) video coding is a particular case of distributed video coding (DVC), the recent video coding paradigm based on the Slepian - Wolf and Wyner - Ziv theorems which exploits the source temporal correlation at the decoder and not at the encoder as in predictive video coding. Although some progress has been made in the last years, WZ video coding is still far from the compression performance of predictive video coding, especially for high and complex motion contents. The WZ video codec adopted in this study is based on a transform domain WZ video coding architecture with feedback channel-driven rate control, whose modules have been improved with some recent coding tools. This study proposes a novel motion learning approach to successively improve the rate-distortion (RD) performance of the WZ video codec as the decoding proceeds, making use of the already decoded transform bands to improve the decoding process for the remaining transform bands. The results obtained reveal gains up to 2.3 dB in the RD curves against the performance for the same codec without the proposed motion learning approach for high motion sequences and long group of pictures (GOP) sizes.

Propriedades psicométricas da versão portuguesa do Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire na miocardiopatia dilatada com insuficiência cardíaca congestiva

Vários estudos demonstraram que os doentes com insuficiência cardíaca congestiva (ICC) têm um compromisso da qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde (QVRS), tendo esta, nos últimos anos, vindo a tornar-se um endpoint primário quando se analisa o impacto do tratamento de situações crónicas como a ICC. Objectivos: Avaliar as propriedades psicométricas da versão portuguesa de um novo instrumento específico para medir a QVRS na ICC em doentes hospitalizados: o Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). População e Métodos: O KCCQ foi aplicado a uma amostra consecutiva de 193 doentes internados por ICC. Destes, 105 repetiram esta avaliação 3 meses após admissão hospitalar, não havendo eventos ocorridos durante este período de tempo. A idade era 64,4± 12,4 anos (entre 21 e 88), com 72,5% a pertencer ao sexo masculino, sendo a ICC de etiologia isquémica em 42%. Resultados: Esta versão do KCCQ foi sujeita a validação estatística semelhante à americana com a avaliação da fidelidade e validade. A fidelidade foi avaliada pela consistência interna dos domínios e dos somatórios, apresentando valores Alpha de Cronbach idênticos nos vários domínios e somatórios ( =0,50 a =0,94). A validade foi analisada pela convergência, pela sensibilidade às diferenças entre grupos e pela sensibilidade à alteração da condição clínica. Avaliou-se a validade convergente de todos os domínios relacionados com funcionalidade, pela relação verificada entre estes e uma medida de funcionalidade, a classificação da New York Heart Association (NYHA), tendo-se verificado correlações significativas (p<0,01), como medida para avaliar a funcionalidade em doentes com ICC. Efectuou-se uma análise de variância entre o domínio limitação física, os somatórios e as classes da NYHA, tendo-se encontrado diferenças estatisticamente significativas (F=23,4; F=36,4; F=37,4; p=0,0001), na capacidade de descriminação da gravidade da condição clínica. Foi realizada uma segunda avaliação em 105 doentes na consulta do 3º mês após a intervenção clínica, tendo-se observado alterações significativas nas médias dos domínios avaliados entre o internamento e a consulta (diferenças de 14,9 a 30,6 numa escala de 0-100), indicando que os domínios avaliados são sensíveis à mudança da condição clínica. A correlação interdimensões da qualidade de vida que compõe este instrumento é moderada, sugerindo dimensões independentes, apoiando a sua estrutura multifactorial e a adequabilidade desta medida para a sua avaliação. Conclusão: O KCCQ é um instrumento válido, sensível à mudança e específico para medir a QVRS numa população portuguesa com miocardiopatia dilatada e ICC. ABSTRACT - Several studies have shown that patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) have a compromised health-related quality of life (HRQL), and this, in recent years, has become a primary endpoint when considering the impact of treatment of chronic conditions such as CHF. Objectives: To evaluate the psychometric properties of the Portuguese version of a new specific instrument to measure HRQL in patients hospitalized for CHF: the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). Methods: The KCCQ was applied to a sample of 193 consecutive patients hospitalized for CHF. Of these, 105 repeated the assessment 3 months after admission, with no events during this period. Mean age was 64.4±12.4 years (21-88), and 72.5% were 72.5% male. CHF was of ischemic etiology in 42% of cases. Results: This version of the KCCQ was subjected to statistical validation, with assessment of reliability and validity, similar to the American version. Reliability was assessed by the internal consistency of the domains and summary scores, which showed similar values of Cronbach alpha (0.50-0.94). Validity was assessed by convergence, sensitivity to differences between groups and sensitivity to changes in clinical condition. We evaluated the convergent validity of all domains related to functionality, through the relationship between them and a measure of functionality, the New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification. Significant correlations were found (p<0.01) for this measure of functionality in patients with CHF. Analysis of variance between the physical limitation domain, the summary scores and NYHA class was performed and statistically significant differences were found (F=23.4; F=36.4; F=37.4, p=0.0001) in the ability to discriminate severity of clinical condition. A second evaluation was performed on 105 patients at the 3-month follow-up outpatient appointment, and significant changes were observed in the mean scores of the domains assessed between hospital admission and the clinic appointment (differences from 14.9 to 30.6 on a scale of 0-100), indicating that the domains assessed are sensitive to changes in clinical condition. The correlation between dimensions of quality of life in the KCCQ is moderate, suggesting that the dimensions are independent, supporting the multifactorial nature of HRQL and the suitability of this measure for its evaluation. Conclusion: The KCCQ is a valid instrument, sensitive to change and a specific measure of HRQL in a population with dilated cardiomyopathy and CHF.