983 resultados para Accident risk forecasting.


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This study focuses on using the partial least squares (PLS) path modelling technique in archival auditing research by replicating the data and research questions from prior bank audit fee studies. PLS path modelling allows for inter-correlations among audit fee determinants by establishing latent constructs and multiple relationship paths in one simultaneous PLS path model. Endogeneity concerns about auditor choice can also be addressed with PLS path modelling. With a sample of US bank holding companies for the period 2003-2009, we examine the associations among on-balance sheet financial risks, off-balance sheet risks and audit fees, and also address the pervasive client size effect, and the effect of the self-selection of auditors. The results endorse the dominating effect of size on audit fees, both directly and indirectly via its impacts on other audit fee determinants. By simultaneously considering the self-selection of auditors, we still find audit fee premiums on Big N auditors, which is the second important factor on audit fee determination. On-balance-sheet financial risk measures in terms of capital adequacy, loan composition, earnings and asset quality performance have positive impacts on audit fees. After allowing for the positive influence of on-balance sheet financial risks and entity size on off-balance sheet risk, the off-balance sheet risk measure, SECRISK, is still positively associated with bank audit fees, both before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The consistent results from this study compared with prior literature provide supporting evidence and enhance confidence on the application of this new research technique in archival accounting studies.

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This study focuses on using the partial least squares (PLS) path modelling methodology in archival auditing research by replicating the data and research questions from prior bank audit fee studies. PLS path modelling allows for inter-correlations among audit fee determinants by establishing latent constructs and multiple relationship paths in one simultaneous PLS path model. Endogeneity concerns about auditor choice can also be addressed with PLS path modelling. With a sample of US bank holding companies for the period 2003-2009, we examine the associations among on-balance sheet financial risks, off-balance sheet risks and audit fees, and also address the pervasive client size effect, and the effect of the self-selection of auditors. The results endorse the dominating effect of size on audit fees, both directly and indirectly via its impacts on other audit fee determinants. By simultaneously considering the self-selection of auditors, we still find audit fee premiums on Big N auditors, which is the second important factor on audit fee determination. On-balance-sheet financial risk measures in terms of capital adequacy, loan composition, earnings and asset quality performance have positive impacts on audit fees. After allowing for the positive influence of on-balance sheet financial risks and entity size on off-balance sheet risk, the off-balance sheet risk measure, SECRISK, is still positively associated with bank audit fees, both before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The consistent results from this study compared with prior literature provide supporting evidence and enhance confidence on the application of this new research technique in archival accounting studies.

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Sleep disruption strongly influences daytime functioning; resultant sleepiness is recognised as a contributing risk-factor for individuals performing critical and dangerous tasks. While the relationship between sleep and sleepiness has been heavily investigated in the vulnerable sub-populations of shift workers and patients with sleep disorders, postpartum women have been comparatively overlooked. Thirty-three healthy, postpartum women recorded every episode of sleep and wake each day during postpartum weeks 6, 12 and 18. Although repeated measures analysis revealed there was no significant difference in the amount of nocturnal sleep and frequency of night-time wakings, there was a significant reduction in sleep disruption, due to fewer minutes of wake after sleep onset. Subjective sleepiness was measured each day using the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale; at the two earlier time points this was significantly correlated with sleep quality but not to sleep quantity. Epworth Sleepiness Scores significantly reduced over time; however, during week 18 over 50% of participants were still experiencing excessive daytime sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Score ≥12). Results have implications for health care providers and policy makers. Health care providers designing interventions to address sleepiness in new mothers should take into account the dynamic changes to sleep and sleepiness during this initial postpartum period. Policy makers developing regulations for parental leave entitlements should take into consideration the high prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness experienced by new mothers, ensuring enough opportunity for daytime sleepiness to diminish to a manageable level prior to reengagement in the workforce.

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This study reports on the utilisation of the Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to examine the self-reported driving behaviours of a large sample of Australian fleet drivers (N = 3414). Surveys were completed by employees before they commenced a one day safety workshop intervention. Factor analysis techniques identified a three factor solution similar to previous research, which was comprised of: (a) errors, (b) highway-code violations and (c) aggressive driving violations. Two items traditionally related with highway-code violations were found to be associated with aggressive driving behaviours among the current sample. Multivariate analyses revealed that exposure to the road, errors and self-reported offences predicted crashes at work in the last 12 months, while gender, highway violations and crashes predicted offences incurred while at work. Importantly, those who received more fines at work were at an increased risk of crashing the work vehicle. However, overall, the DBQ demonstrated limited efficacy at predicting these two outcomes. This paper outlines the major findings of the study in regards to identifying and predicting aberrant driving behaviours and also highlights implications regarding the future utilisation of the DBQ within fleet settings.

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Young drivers are the group of drivers most likely to crash. There are a number of factors that contribute to the high crash risk experienced by these drivers. While some of these factors are intrinsic to the young driver, such as their age, gender or driving skill, others relate to social factors and when and how often they drive. This article reviews the factors that affect the risk of young drivers crashing to enable a fuller understanding of why this risk is so high in order to assist in developing effective countermeasures.

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Objectives: Driver sleepiness contributes substantially to road crash incidents. Simulator and on-road studies clearly reveal an impairing effect from sleepiness for driving ability. However, drivers might not appreciate the dangerousness of driving while sleepy and this could translate to their on-road driving behaviours. This study sought to determine drivers’ on-road experiences of sleepiness, their sleep habits, and personal awareness of the signs of sleepiness. Methods: Participants were a random selection of 92 drivers travelling on a major highway in the state of Queensland, Australia, who were stopped by Police as part of routine drink driving operations. Participants completed a brief questionnaire that included: demographic details, awareness and on-road experiences of sleepy driving, and sleep habits. A modified version of the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) was used to assess subjective sleepiness during the last 15 minutes of driving. Results: Participants rating of subjective sleepiness was quite low with 90% reporting at or below 3 on the KSS. Participants were reasonably aware of the signs of sleepiness; with a number of these correlated with on-road experiences. The participants sleep debt correlated with their alertness (r = -.30) and the hours spent driving (r = .38). Conclusions: These results suggest that drivers had moderate or substantial experience of driving when sleepy and many were aware of the signs of sleepiness. As many of the participants reported driving long distances after suboptimal sleep durations, it is possible that their risk perception of the dangerousness of sleepy driving maybe erroneous.

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OBJECTIVES: To determine risk factors for herpes simplex 2 (HSV2) infection in women in a polygynous rural Gambian population. METHODS: Data from women who participated in a cross-sectional survey of reproductive health were matched to their own and, for women who had been or were married (ever-married), their spouses' data collected in a cross-sectional survey of fertility interests, including information on marital histories. RESULTS: Data were available on 150 never-married and 525 ever-married women. HSV2 prevalence was 16% amongst never-married women and 36% amongst ever-married women. For ever-married women, their own personal characteristics (age, ethnicity and genital cutting status) and events from their husbands' marriage history were important determinants of HSV2 infection. Women whose husbands married for the first time over age 35 were at greater risk than women whose husbands married by age 24 [odds ratio (OR) 2.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-6.10]. Women whose husband reported interest in a new marriage were more likely to be HSV2 positive (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.18-3.09). Women whose husbands were currently monogamous but had had previous marriages (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.30-5.88) and women in currently polygynous marriages (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.66-5.01) were three times as likely to be HSV2 positive as women who were their husband's only wife ever. CONCLUSION: Much transmission of HSV2 in this setting occurs within marriage where opportunity for personal protection is limited. High levels of transmission within marriage may undermine the impact of sexual behaviour change programmes aiming to reduce HSV2 and HIV incidence and complicate their evaluation.

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The contamination of electrical insulators is one of the major contributors to the risk of operation outages in electrical substations, especially in coastal zones with high salinity levels and atmospheric pollution. By using the measurement of leakage-currents, which is one of the main indicators of contamination in insulators, this work seeks to the determine the correlation with climatic variables, such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, solar irradiance, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed and direction. The results obtained provide an input to the behaviour of the leakage current under atmospheric conditions that are particular to the Caribbean coast of Colombia. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients and principal component analysis are utilised to determine the significant relationships among the different variables under consideration. The necessary information for the study was obtained via historical databases of both atmospheric variables and the leakage current measured in over a period of one year in a 220-kV potential transformer insulator. We identified the influencing factors of temperature, humidity, radiation, wind speed and direction on the magnitude of the leakage current as the most relevant.

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This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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Purpose Is eccentric hamstring strength and between limb imbalance in eccentric strength, measured during the Nordic hamstring exercise, a risk factor for hamstring strain injury (HSI)? Methods Elite Australian footballers (n=210) from five different teams participated. Eccentric hamstring strength during the Nordic was taken at the commencement and conclusion of preseason training and in season. Injury history and demographic data were also collected. Reports on prospectively occurring HSIs were completed by team medical staff. Relative risk (RR) was determined for univariate data and logistic regression was employed for multivariate data. Results Twenty-eight HSIs were recorded. Eccentric hamstring strength below 256N at the start of preseason and 279N at the end of preseason increased risk of future HSI 2.7 (relative risk, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.5; p = 0.006) and 4.3 fold (relative risk, 4.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 11.0; p = 0.002) respectively. Between limb imbalance in strength of greater than 10% did not increase the risk of future HSI. Univariate analysis did not reveal a significantly greater relative risk for future HSI in athletes who had sustained a lower limb injury of any kind within the last 12 months. Logistic regression revealed interactions between both athlete age and history of HSI with eccentric hamstring strength, whereby the likelihood of future HSI in older athletes or athletes with a history of HSI was reduced if an athlete had high levels of eccentric strength. Conclusion Low levels of eccentric hamstring strength increased the risk of future HSI. Interaction effects suggest that the additional risk of future HSI associated with advancing age or previous injury was mitigated by higher levels of eccentric hamstring strength.

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Poor mine water management can lead to corporate, environmental and social risks. These risks become more pronounced as mining operations move into areas of water scarcity and/or increase climatic variability while also managing increased demand, lower ore grades and increased strip ratios. Therefore, it is vital that mine sites better understand these risks in order to implement management practices to address them. Systems models provide an effective approach to understand complex networks, particularly across multiple scales. Previous work has represented mine water interactions using systems model on a mine site scale. Here, we expand on that work by present an integrated tool that uses a systems modeling approach to represent mine water interactions on a site and regional scale and then analyses the risks associated with events stemming from those interactions. A case study is presented to represent three indicative corporate, environmental and social risks associated with a mine site that exists in a water scarce region. The tool is generic and flexible, and can be used in many scenarios to provide significant potential utility to the mining industry.

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Unsafe road behaviors, violence and alcohol use, are primary contributors to adolescent injury. Research suggests that adolescents look out for their friends and engage in protective behavior to reduce others' risk-taking and that school connectedness is associated with reduced injury-risks. This study examined the role of school connectedness in willingness to protect and prevent friends from involvement in alcohol use, fights and unlicensed driving. Surveys were completed at two time points, six months apart, by 545 13-14 year olds from seven Australian high schools. Females were significantly more likely than males to report willingness to protect their friends. School connectedness significantly and positively predicted willingness to protect across all three injury-risk behaviors, after accounting for sex and own involvement in injury-risk behaviors. School connectedness may therefore be an important factor to target in school-based prevention programs, both to reduce adolescents' own injury-risk behavior and to increase injury prevention among friends.

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Adolescent drivers are over-represented in distraction-related motor vehicle crashes. There are a number of potential reasons for such elevated risk with driving inexperience, high adoption of communication technology, increased peer involvement and tendency to take risks, rendering young drivers particularly vulnerable. Major legislative efforts in Graduated Licensing Systems that include passenger restrictions have shown positive effects. Restrictions on cell phone use are also being introduced however enforcement of such regulations is challenging. This paper argues that such contextual, legislative interventions are an essential prevention strategy however there is an unfilled need to introduce behavior change programs that may target adolescents, parents and friends. A theoretical framework is applied in which risk and protective factors are identified from research within community and jurisdiction contexts. In the literature on distraction social context and normative influences are the key elements used to inform program design for adolescent drivers with parental monitoring informing interventions targeting parents. Following from this assessment of the message content assessment, the design of strategies to deliver the messages are reviewed. In the current literature, school-based programs, simulations and web-delivered programs have been evaluated with supplementary strategies delivered by physicians and parents. Such developments are still at an early stage of development and ultimately will need controlled implementation and evaluation studies. There is of course, no likely single approach to prevent adolescent driver distraction and complementary approaches such as the further development of technological interventions to manage phone use are needed. Implications and Contributions The paper describes the intervention design process alongside key research in young driver distraction including selecting target behavior, audience, theoretically-derived strategies and delivery strategies. Currently graduated driver licensing and technology use and acceptance and parent-adolescent and adolescent-peer interactions are opportunities for further research and exploration.

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Purpose: Young adults regularly experience restricted sleep due to a range of social, educational and vocational commitments. Evidence suggests that extended periods of sleep deprivation negatively impact affective and inhibitory control mechanisms leading to behavioural consequences such as increased emotional reactivity and impulsive behaviour. It is less clear whether acute periods of restricted sleep produce the same behavioural consequences. Methods: Nineteen young adults (m = 8, f = 12) with habitual late bed-time (after 22:30 h) and wake-time (after 06:30 h) completed a range of objective and subjective measures assessing sleepiness (Psychomotor Vigilance Task, Karolinska Sleepiness Scale), inhibitory control (Emotional Go/No-go Task and a Balloon Analog Risk Task) and affect (Positive and Negative Affective Schedule). Testing was counterbalanced across participants, and occurred on two occasions once following restricted sleep and once following habitual sleep one week apart. Results: Compared to habitual sleep, sleep restriction produced significantly slower performance on the Psychomotor Vigilance Task, and higher subjective ratings of sleepiness on the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale. Sleep restriction also caused a significant decrease in positive affect, but no change in negative affect on the Affective Schedule. Inhibitory control efficiency was significantly differentiated, with participants showing an increase in risk taking on the Balloon Analog Risk Task, but there was no evidence of increased reactivity to negative stimuli on the Emotional Go/No-go task. Conclusions: Results suggest that even acute periods of sleep loss may cause deficits in affective experiences and increase impulsive and potentially high risk behaviour in young adults.

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Extensive research has highlighted the positive and exponential relationship between vehicle speed and crash risk and severity. Speed enforcement policies and practices throughout the world have developed dramatically as new technology becomes available, however speeding remains a pervasive problem internationally that significantly contributes to road trauma. This paper adopted a three-pronged approach to review speed enforcement policies and practices by: (i) describing and comparing policies and practices adopted in a cross-section of international jurisdictions; (ii) reviewing the available empirical evidence evaluating the effectiveness of various approaches, and; (iii) providing recommendations for the optimisation speed enforcement. The review shows the enforcement strategies adopted in various countries differ both in terms of the approaches used and how they are specifically applied. The literature review suggests strong and consistent evidence that police speed enforcement, in particular speed cameras, can be an effective tool for reducing vehicle speeds and subsequent traffic crashes. Drawing from this evidence, recommendations for best practice are proposed, including the specific instances in which various speed enforcement approaches typically produce the greatest road safety benefits, and perhaps most importantly, that speed enforcement programs must utilise a variety of strategies tailored to specific situations, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach.