Big data: a normal accident waiting to happen?

Widespread commercial use of the internet has significantly increased the volume and scope of data being collected by organisations. ‘Big data’ has emerged as a term to encapsulate both the technical and commercial aspects of this growing data collection activity. To date, much of the discussion of big data has centred upon its transformational potential for innovation and efficiency, yet there has been less reflection on its wider implications beyond commercial value creation. This paper builds upon normal accident theory (NAT) to analyse the broader ethical implications of big data. It argues that the strategies behind big data require organisational systems that leave them vulnerable to normal accidents, that is to say some form of accident or disaster that is both unanticipated and inevitable. Whilst NAT has previously focused on the consequences of physical accidents, this paper suggests a new form of system accident that we label data accidents. These have distinct, less tangible and more complex characteristics and raise significant questions over the role of individual privacy in a ‘data society’. The paper concludes by considering the ways in which the risks of such data accidents might be managed or mitigated.

'Nature concocts & expels': the agents and processes of recovery from disease in Early Modern England

The ‘golden saying’ in early modern medicine was ‘Nature is the healer of disease’. This article uncovers the meaning and significance of this forgotten axiom by investigating perceptions of the agents and physiological processes of recovery from illness in England, c.1580-1720. Drawing on sources such as medical texts and diaries, it shows that doctors and laypeople attributed recovery to three agents – God, Nature, and the practitioner. While scholars are familiar with the roles of providence and medicine, the vital agency of Nature has been overlooked. In theory, the agents operated in a hierarchy: Nature was ‘God’s instrument’, and the physician, ‘Nature’s servant’; but in practice the power balance was more ambivalent. Nature was depicted both as a housewife who cooked and cleaned the humours, and as a warrior, who defeated the disease. Through exploring these complex dynamics, the article sheds fresh light on concepts of gender, disease, and bodies.

Chemotherapeutic agents and gene expression in cardiac myocytes

It is becoming apparent that anti-cancer chemotherapies are increasingly associated with cardiac dysfunction or even congestive heart failure (Minotti et al., 2004; Eliott, 2006; Suter et al., 2004; Ren, 2005). Our data suggest that one of the contributing factors to the cardiotoxicitiy of these drugs may be the activation of the AhR-response (including the increased expression of Cyp1a1) and/or other detoxification program in cardiac myocytes themselves. The induction of such responses may have secondary effects (e.g. to increase the level of intracellular oxidative stress), which may influence the contractility or even survival of cardiac myocytes. Furthermore, the specific response of cardiac myocytes, both with respect to the metabolizing enzymes and the export channels, potentially differs from other cells (e.g. we failed to detect any increase in expression of other “classical” AhR-responsive genes, Ugt1a1 and Ugt1a6). This could account for, for example, the observation that doxoribicinol (the 13-hydroxy form of doxorubicin) accumulates in cardiac myocytes but not in hepatocytes (Del Tacca et al., 1985; Olson et al., 1988). Given the vulnerability of the heart and the almost irreparable damage that can be done by severe oxidative stress, further studies would seem to be merited specifically on the effects of chemotherapeutic agents on cardiac myocytes.

Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation

Lack of access to insurance exacerbates the impact of climate variability on smallholder famers in Africa. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, weather index insurance (WII) pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. In principle, WII could be provided to farmers throughout Africa. There are two data-related hurdles to this. First, most farmers do not live close enough to a rain gauge with sufficiently long record of observations. Second, mismatches between weather indices and yield may expose farmers to uncompensated losses, and insurers to unfair payouts – a phenomenon known as basis risk. In essence, basis risk results from complexities in the progression from meteorological drought (rainfall deficit) to agricultural drought (low soil moisture). In this study, we use a land-surface model to describe the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought. We demonstrate that spatial and temporal aggregation of rainfall results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a reduction in basis risk. We then use an advanced statistical method to show how optimal aggregation of satellite-based rainfall estimates can reduce basis risk, enabling remotely sensed data to be utilized robustly for WII.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

Synthesis and biological analysis of novel glycoside derivatives of L-AEP, as targeted antibacterial agents

To develop targeted methods for treating bacterial infections, the feasibility of using glycoside derivatives of the antibacterial compound L-R-aminoethylphosphonic acid (L-AEP) has been investigated. These derivatives are hypothesized to be taken up by bacterial cells via carbohydrate uptake mechanisms, and then hydrolysed in situ by bacterial borne glycosidase enzymes, to selectively afford L-AEP. Therefore the synthesis and analysis of ten glycoside derivatives of L-AEP, for selective targeting of specific bacteria, is reported. The ability of these derivatives to inhibit the growth of a panel of Gram-negative bacteria in two different media is discussed. β-Glycosides (12a) and (12b) that contained L-AEP linked to glucose or galactose via a carbamate linkage inhibited growth of a range of organisms with the best MICs being <0.75 mg/ml; for most species the inhibition was closely related to the hydrolysis of the equivalent chromogenic glycosides. This suggests that for (12a) and (12b), release of L-AEP was indeed dependent upon the presence of the respective glycosidase enzyme.

Tensile bond strength of cast commercially pure titanium and cast gold-alloy posts and cores cemented with two luting agents

Statement of problem. In vitro studies on the retentive strengths of various cements used to retain posts have reported conflicting results. Purpose. The purpose of this study was to compare the tensile strength of commercially pure titanium and type III cast gold-alloy posts and cores cemented with zinc phosphate or resin cement. Material and methods. Forty-two extracted human canines were endoclontically treated. The root preparations were accomplished using Largo reamers (10 mm in depth and 1.7 mm in diameter). Acrylic resin patterns for the posts and cores were made, and specimens were cast in commercially pure titanium and in type III gold alloy (n=7). Fourteen titanium cast posts and cores were submitted to surface treatment with Kroll acid solution and to scanning electron microscopy (SEM), before and after acid etching. The groups (n=7) were cemented with zinc phosphate cement or resin cement (Panavia F). Tensile strengths were measured in a universal testing machine at a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/min. The results (Kgf) were statistically analyzed by 2-way ANCIVA (alpha=.05). Results. The 2-way ANOVA indicated that there were no significant differences among the groups tested. Retentive means for zinc phosphate and Panavia F cements were statistically similar. The bond strength was not Influenced by the alloy, the luting material, or the etching treatment. SEM analysis indicated that the etched surfaces were smoother than those that did not receive surface treatment, but this fact did not influence the results. Conclusions. Commercially pure titanium cast posts and cores cemented with zinc phosphate and resin cements demonstrated similar mean tensile retentive values. Retentive values were also similar to mean values recorded for cast gold-alloy posts and cores cemented with zinc phosphate cement and resin cements.

A comparative study on the effects of the benzodiazepine midazolam and the dopamine agents, apomorphine and sulpiride, on rat behavior in the two-way avoidance test

In recent years. studies in behavioral pharmacology have shown the involvement of dopaminergic mechanisms in avoidance behavior as assessed by the two-way active avoidance test (CAR). Changes in dopaminergic transmission also occur in response to particularly threatening challenges. However, studies on the effects of benzodiazepine (BZD) drugs ill this test are still unclear. Given the interplay of dopamine and other neurotransmitters in the neurobiology of anxiety and schizophrenia the aim of this work was to evaluate the effects of systemic administration of midazolam, the dopaminergic agonist apomorphine, and the D(2) receptor antagonist sulpiride using the CAR, a test that shows good sensitivity to typical neuroleptic drugs. Whereas midazolam did not alter the avoidance response. apomorphine increased and sulpiride reduced them in this test. Escape was not affected by any drug treatments. Heightened avoidance was not associated with the increased motor activity caused by apomorphine. In contrast with the benzodiazepine midazolam, activation of post-synaptic D(2) receptors with apomorphine facilitates, whereas the D(2) receptor antagonism with sulpiride inhibited the acquisition of the avoidance behavior. Together, these results bring additional evidence for a role of D(2) mechanisms in the acquisition of the active avoidance. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Opinion dynamics of learning agents: does seeking consensus lead to disagreement?

We study opinion dynamics in a population of interacting adaptive agents voting on a set of issues represented by vectors. We consider agents who can classify issues into one of two categories and can arrive at their opinions using an adaptive algorithm. Adaptation comes from learning and the information for the learning process comes from interacting with other neighboring agents and trying to change the internal state in order to concur with their opinions. The change in the internal state is driven by the information contained in the issue and in the opinion of the other agent. We present results in a simple yet rich context where each agent uses a Boolean perceptron to state their opinion. If the update occurs with information asynchronously exchanged among pairs of agents, then the typical case, if the number of issues is kept small, is the evolution into a society torn by the emergence of factions with extreme opposite beliefs. This occurs even when seeking consensus with agents with opposite opinions. If the number of issues is large, the dynamics becomes trapped, the society does not evolve into factions and a distribution of moderate opinions is observed. The synchronous case is technically simpler and is studied by formulating the problem in terms of differential equations that describe the evolution of order parameters that measure the consensus between pairs of agents. We show that for a large number of issues and unidirectional information flow, global consensus is a fixed point; however, the approach to this consensus is glassy for large societies.

Fragment-Based QSAR and Molecular Modeling Studies on a Series of Discodermolide Analogs as Microtubule-Stabilizing Anticancer Agents

Inhibition of microtubule function is an attractive rational approach to anticancer therapy. Although taxanes are the most prominent among the microtubule-stabilizers, their clinical toxicity, poor pharmacokinetic properties, and resistance have stimulated the search for new antitumor agents having the same mechanism of action. Discodermolide is an example of nontaxane natural product that has the same mechanism of action, demonstrating superior antitumor efficacy and therapeutic index. The extraordinary chemical and biological properties have qualified discodermolide as a lead structure for the design of novel anticancer agents with optimized therapeutic properties. In the present work, we have employed a specialized fragment-based method to develop robust quantitative structure - activity relationship models for a series of synthetic discodermolide analogs. The generated molecular recognition patterns were combined with three-dimensional molecular modeling studies as a fundamental step on the path to understanding the molecular basis of drug-receptor interactions within this important series of potent antitumoral agents.

Analyzing Ru(III)-dmso and Ru(III)-dms motifs in compounds used in the synthesis of the antimetastatic agents

The chemistry of Ru(III) complexes containing dmso as a ligand has become an interesting area in the cancer treatment field. Because of this, structural knowledge and chemistry of the moiety Ru(III)-dmso have become important to cancer research. The crystal structures of the compounds mer-[RuCl(3)(dms)(3)] (1) and mer-[RuCl(3)(dms)(2)(dmso)]:mer-[RuCl(3)(dms)(3)] (2) were determined by X-ray crystallography and a speciation of the presence of intramolecular hydrogen bond in these structures has been studied. Compound (1) crystallizes in the orthorhombic space group, Pna2(1); a = 16.591(8) angstrom, b = 8.724(2) angstrom. c = 10.547(3) angstrom; Z = 12 and (2) crystallizes in the space group, P2(1)/C: a = 11.9930(2) angstrom, b = 7.9390(2) angstrom, c = 15.8700(3) angstrom, beta = 93.266(1)degrees, Z = 2. From the X-ray structures solved in this work, were possible to suggest an interpretation for the broad lines observed in the EPR spectra of the Ru(III) compounds explored here. Also, the exchange interactions detected by EPR spectroscopy in solid state and in solution, confirm the presence of van der Waals interactions such as C-H center dot center dot center dot Cl in the compounds (1), (2) and (3). The use of techniques such as IR, UV-vis, (1)H NMR and EPR Spectroscopy and Cyclic Voltammetry were applied in this work to analyze the behavior of these metallocompounds. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationships for a large series of potent antitubercular agents

Comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) studies were conducted on a series of 100 isoniazid derivatives as anti-tuberculosis agents using two receptor-independent structural data set alignment strategies: (1) rigid-body fit, and (2) pharmacophore-based. Significant cross-validated correlation coefficients were obtained (CoMFA(1), q(2) = 0,75 and CoMFA(2), q(2) = 0.74), indicating the potential of the models for untested compounds. The models were then used to predict the inhibitory potency of 20 test set compounds that were not included in the training set, and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results.

Natural products biological screening and ligand-based virtual screening for the discovery of new antileishmanial agents

In the course of our research program to discover novel antileishmanial agents, a biological screening of natural products against Leishmania major promastigotes allowed the identification of a furoquinoline alkaloid (1) and a furanocoumarin (2) as new hits. Subsequently, an integrated ligand-based virtual screening approach was employed to search for new antileishmanial compounds using these naturally occurring molecules as templates. Fourteen out of 40 compounds selected from a database of about 800,000 compounds (extracted from ZINC, a free database for virtual screening) were experimentally confirmed to possess significant in vitro antileishmanial properties. The application of ligand-based virtual screening as a complementary approach to experimental natural product screening was a useful strategy to facilitate the identification of new promising lead candidates.

Fragment-based and classical quantitative structure-activity relationships for a series of hydrazides as antituberculosis agents

Worldwide, tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among curable infectious diseases. Multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis is an emerging problem of great importance to public health, and there is an urgent need for new anti-TB drugs. In the present work, classical 2D quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) and hologram QSAR (HQSAR) studies were performed on a training set of 91 isoniazid derivatives. Significant statistical models (classical QSAR, q(2) = 0.68 and r(2) = 0.72; HQSAR, q(2) = 0.63 and r(2) = 0.86) were obtained, indicating their consistency for untested compounds. The models were then used to evaluate an external test set containing 24 compounds which were not included in the training set, and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results (HQSAR, r(pred)(2) = 0.87; classical QSAR, r(pred)(2) = 0.75).

Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents

We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account the market price and the perceived fundamental value of the asset. The resulting excess demand is coupled to the market price. Rigorous analysis reveals that this feedback may lead to price oscillations, a single bounce, or monotonic price behaviour. The model is a rare example of an analytically tractable interacting-agent model which allows LIS to deduce in detail the origin of these different collective patterns. For a natural choice of initial distribution, the results are independent of the graph structure that models the peer network of agents whose decisions influence each other. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.