Role of predictors in downscaling surface temperature to river basin in India for IPCC SRES scenarios using support vector machine

In this paper, downscaling models are developed using a support vector machine (SVM) for obtaining projections of monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures (T-max and T-min) to river-basin scale. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated through application to downscale the predictands for the catchment of the Malaprabha reservoir in India, which is considered to be a climatically sensitive region. The probable predictor variables are extracted from (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the period 1978-2000, and (2) the simulations from the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT for the period 1978-2100. The predictor variables are classified into three groups, namely A, B and C. Large-scale atmospheric variables Such as air temperature, zonal and meridional wind velocities at 925 nib which are often used for downscaling temperature are considered as predictors in Group A. Surface flux variables such as latent heat (LH), sensible heat, shortwave radiation and longwave radiation fluxes, which control temperature of the Earth's surface are tried as plausible predictors in Group B. Group C comprises of all the predictor variables in both the Groups A and B. The scatter plots and cross-correlations are used for verifying the reliability of the simulation of the predictor variables by the CGCM3 and to Study the predictor-predictand relationships. The impact of trend in predictor variables on downscaled temperature was studied. The predictor, air temperature at 925 mb showed an increasing trend, while the rest of the predictors showed no trend. The performance of the SVM models that are developed, one for each combination of predictor group, predictand, calibration period and location-based stratification (land, land and ocean) of climate variables, was evaluated. In general, the models which use predictor variables pertaining to land surface improved the performance of SVM models for downscaling T-max and T-min

The atmospheric extinction of light

An experiment is described that enables students to understand the properties of atmospheric extinction due to Rayleigh scattering. The experiment requires the use of red, green and blue lasers attached to a traveling microscope or similar device. The laser beams are passed through an artificial atmosphere, made from milky water, at varying depths, before impinging on either a light meter or a photodiode integral to a Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC. A plot of measured spectral intensity verses depth reveals the contribution Rayleigh scattering has to the extinction coefficient. For the experiment with the light meter, the extinction coefficient for red, green and blue light in the milky sample of water were 0.27, 0.36 and 0.47 cm-1 respectively and 0.032, 0.037 and 0.092 cm-1 for the Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC.

Exploring aged care business models : A typological study

Australian providers of aged care are facing a rapidly ageing population and growth in demand for services. Beyond a sheer increase in consumers and major regulatory changes from Federal Government, many customers are becoming progressively discontented with a medically dominated model of care provision. This period of turbulence presents an opportunity for new entrants and forward-thinking organisations to disrupt the market by designing a more compelling value offering. Under this line of inquiry, the researchers conducted a qualitative content analysis study of over 37 Australian aged care organisations, clustering providers into six business model typologies. The study revealed that providers of aged care are becoming increasingly aware of emerging customer needs, and, in addressing these needs, are seeking to establish innovative models of care provision. This paper therefore presents a future model of care, along with implications for practice and policy.

Comparison between computational models of abdominal aortic aneurysm

Objective: To compare the differences in the hemodynamic parameters of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) between fluid-structure interaction model (FSIM) and fluid-only model (FM), so as to discuss their application in the research of AAA. Methods: An idealized AAA model was created based on patient-specific AAA data. In FM, the flow, pressure and wall shear stress (WSS) were computed using finite volume method. In FSIM, an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian algorithm was used to solve the flow in a continuously deforming geometry. The hemodynamic parameters of both models were obtained for discussion. Results: Under the same inlet velocity, there were only two symmetrical vortexes in the AAA dilation area for FSIM. In contrast, four recirculation areas existed in FM; two were main vortexes and the other two were secondary flow, which were located between the main recirculation area and the arterial wall. Six local pressure concentrations occurred in the distal end of AAA and the recirculation area for FM. However, there were only two local pressure concentrations in FSIM. The vortex center of the recirculation area in FSIM was much more close to the distal end of AAA and the area was much larger because of AAA expansion. Four extreme values of WSS existed at the proximal of AAA, the point of boundary layer separation, the point of flow reattachment and the distal end of AAA, respectively, in both FM and FSIM. The maximum wall stress and the largest wall deformation were both located at the proximal and distal end of AAA. Conclusions: The number and center of the recirculation area for both models are different, while the change of vortex is closely associated with the AAA growth. The largest WSS of FSIM is 36% smaller than that of FM. Both the maximum wall stress and largest wall displacement shall increase with the outlet pressure increasing. FSIM needs to be considered for studying the relationship between AAA growth and shear stress.

Electrochemical phase formation (ECPF): Nucleation growth vis-a-vis adsorption models

The nucleataon growth model of electrochemical phase formation is analysed for the hnear potential sweep input Apart from deducing diagnostic criteria and method~ of estimating model parameters, the predictions of the nucleation growth model are compared and contrasted with those of a sample adsorption model A dastlnCtlOn is made possible between adsorption and phase transition, which seems useful for understanding the nature of ECPF phenomena, especially underpotentlal deposition (UPD).

Comparison of Interproton Distances in DNA Models with Nuclear Overhauser Enhancement Data

The conformational flexibility inherent in the polynucleotide chain plays an important role in deciding its three-dimensonal structure and enables it to undergo structural transitions in order to fulfil all its functions. Following certain stereochemical guidelines, both right and left handed double-helical models have been built in our laboratory and they are in reasonably good agreement with the fibre patterns for various polymorphous forms of DNA. Recently, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy has become an important technique for studying the solution conformation and polymorphism of nucleic acids. Several workers have used 1H nuclear magnetic resonance nuclear Overhauser enhancement measurements to estimate the interproton distances for the various DNA oligomers and compared them with the interproton distances for particular models of A and Β form DNA. In some cases the solution conformation does not seem to fit either of these models. We have been studying various models for DNA with a view to exploring the full conformational space allowed for nucleic acid polymers. In this paper, the interproton distances calculated for the different stereochemically feasible models of DNA are presented and they are compared and correlated against those obtained from 1Η nuclear magnetic resonance nuclear Overhauser enhancement measurements of various nucleic acid oligomers.

Relativistic particle models with separable interactions

We present relativistic, classical particle models that possess Poincaré invariance, invariant world lines, particle interaction, and separability.

Designing innovative business models with a framework that promotes experimentation

Purpose – Business models to date have remained the creation of management, however, it is the belief of the authors that designers should be critically approaching, challenging and creating new business models as part of their practice. This belief portrays a new era where business model constructs become the new design brief of the future and fuel design and innovation to work together at the strategic level of an organisation. Design/methodology/approach – The purpose of this paper is to explore and investigate business model design. The research followed a deductive structured qualitative content analysis approach utilizing a predetermined categorization matrix. The analysis of forty business cases uncovered commonalities of key strategic drivers behind these innovative business models. Findings – Five business model typologies were derived from this content analysis, from which quick prototypes of new business models can be created. Research limitations/implications – Implications from this research suggest there is no “one right” model, but rather through experimentation, the generation of many unique and diverse concepts can result in greater possibilities for future innovation and sustained competitive advantage. Originality/value – This paper builds upon the emerging research and exploration into the importance and relevance of dynamic, design-driven approaches to the creation of innovative business models. These models aim to synthesize knowledge gained from real world examples into a tangible, accessible and provoking framework that provide new prototyping templates to aid the process of business model experimentation.

Solid volume fraction estimation of bone:marrow replica models using ultrasound transit time spectroscopy

The acceptance of broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) for the assessment of osteoporosis suffers from a limited understanding of both ultrasound wave propagation through cancellous bone and its exact dependence upon the material and structural properties. It has recently been proposed that ultrasound wave propagation in cancellous bone may be described by a concept of parallel sonic rays; the transit time of each ray defined by the proportion of bone and marrow propagated. A Transit Time Spectrum (TTS) describes the proportion of sonic rays having a particular transit time, effectively describing the lateral inhomogeneity of transit times over the surface aperture of the receive ultrasound transducer. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the solid volume fraction (SVF) of simplified bone:marrow replica models may be reliably estimated from the corresponding ultrasound transit time spectrum. Transit time spectra were derived via digital deconvolution of the experimentally measured input and output ultrasonic signals, and compared to predicted TTS based on the parallel sonic ray concept, demonstrating agreement in both position and amplitude of spectral peaks. Solid volume fraction was calculated from the TTS; agreement between true (geometric calculation) with predicted (computer simulation) and experimentally-derived values were R2=99.9% and R2=97.3% respectively. It is therefore envisaged that ultrasound transit time spectroscopy (UTTS) offers the potential to reliably estimate bone mineral density and hence the established T-score parameter for clinical osteoporosis assessment.

Generalised growth models for aquatic species with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra)

This paper presents a maximum likelihood method for estimating growth parameters for an aquatic species that incorporates growth covariates, and takes into consideration multiple tag-recapture data. Individual variability in asymptotic length, age-at-tagging, and measurement error are also considered in the model structure. Using distribution theory, the log-likelihood function is derived under a generalised framework for the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models. Due to the generality of the derivation, covariate effects can be included for both models with seasonality and tagging effects investigated. Method robustness is established via comparison with the Fabens, improved Fabens, James and a non-linear mixed-effects growth models, with the maximum likelihood method performing the best. The method is illustrated further with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) for which a strong growth-retarding tagging effect that persisted for several months was detected

Stochastic growth models for analyzing crustacean data

The contemporary methodology for growth models of organisms is based on continuous trajectories and thus it hinders us from modelling stepwise growth in crustacean populations. Growth models for fish are normally assumed to follow a continuous function, but a different type of model is needed for crustacean growth. Crustaceans must moult in order for them to grow. The growth of crustaceans is a discontinuous process due to the periodical shedding of the exoskeleton in moulting. The stepwise growth of crustaceans through the moulting process makes the growth estimation more complex. Stochastic approaches can be used to model discontinuous growth or what are commonly known as "jumps" (Figure 1). However, in stochastic growth model we need to ensure that the stochastic growth model results in only positive jumps. In view of this, we will introduce a subordinator that is a special case of a Levy process. A subordinator is a non-decreasing Levy process, that will assist in modelling crustacean growth for better understanding of the individual variability and stochasticity in moulting periods and increments. We develop the estimation methods for parameter estimation and illustrate them with the help of a dataset from laboratory experiments. The motivational dataset is from the ornate rock lobster, Panulirus ornatus, which can be found between Australia and Papua New Guinea. Due to the presence of sex effects on the growth (Munday et al., 2004), we estimate the growth parameters separately for each sex. Since all hard parts are shed too often, the exact age determination of a lobster can be challenging. However, the growth parameters for the aforementioned moult processes from tank data being able to estimate through: (i) inter-moult periods, and (ii) moult increment. We will attempt to derive a joint density, which is made up of two functions: one for moult increments and the other for time intervals between moults. We claim these functions are conditionally independent given pre-moult length and the inter-moult periods. The variables moult increments and inter-moult periods are said to be independent because of the Markov property or conditional probability. Hence, the parameters in each function can be estimated separately. Subsequently, we integrate both of the functions through a Monte Carlo method. We can therefore obtain a population mean for crustacean growth (e. g. red curve in Figure 1). [GRAPHICS]

Estimation for the general sample selection models

Consider a general regression model with an arbitrary and unknown link function and a stochastic selection variable that determines whether the outcome variable is observable or missing. The paper proposes U-statistics that are based on kernel functions as estimators for the directions of the parameter vectors in the link function and the selection equation, and shows that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal.

An account and analysis of the implementation of various ebook business models at QUT, Australia

QUT (Queensland University of Technology) is a leading university based in the city of Brisbane, Queensland, Australia and is a selectively research intensive university with 2,500 higher degree research students and an overall student population of 45,000 students. The transition from print to online resources is largely completed and the library now provides access to 450,000 print books, 1,000 print journals, 600,000 ebooks, 120,000 ejournals and 100,000 online videos. The ebook collection is now used three times as much as the print book collection. This paper focuses on QUT Library’s ebook strategy and the challenges of building and managing a rapidly growing collection of ebooks using a range of publishers, platforms, and business and financial models. The paper provides an account of QUT Library’s experiences in using Patron Driven Acquisition (PDA) using eBook Library (EBL); the strategic procurement of publisher and subject collections by lease and outright purchase models, the more recent transition to Evidence Based Selection (EBS) options provided by some publishers, and its piloting of etextbook models. The paper provides an in-depth analysis of each of these business models at QUT, focusing on access verses collection development, usage, cost per use, and value for money.