Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

Validation of the Mini Nutritional Assessment short-form (MNA-SF): a practical tool for identification of nutritional status.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a revision of the Mini Nutritional Assessment short-form (MNA(R)-SF) against the full MNA, a standard tool for nutritional evaluation. METHODS: A literature search identified studies that used the MNA for nutritional screening in geriatric patients. The contacted authors submitted original datasets that were merged into a single database. Various combinations of the questions on the current MNA-SF were tested using this database through combination analysis and ROC based derivation of classification thresholds. RESULTS: Twenty-seven datasets (n=6257 participants) were initially processed from which twelve were used in the current analysis on a sample of 2032 study participants (mean age 82.3y) with complete information on all MNA items. The original MNA-SF was a combination of six questions from the full MNA. A revised MNA-SF included calf circumference (CC) substituted for BMI performed equally well. A revised three-category scoring classification for this revised MNA-SF, using BMI and/or CC, had good sensitivity compared to the full MNA. CONCLUSION: The newly revised MNA-SF is a valid nutritional screening tool applicable to geriatric health care professionals with the option of using CC when BMI cannot be calculated. This revised MNA-SF increases the applicability of this rapid screening tool in clinical practice through the inclusion of a "malnourished" category.

Ultrasound assessment of ocular vascular effects of repeated intravitreal injections of ranibizumab for wet age-related macular degeneration.

PURPOSE: Determine the effect of repeated intravitreal injections of ranibizumab (0.5 mg; 0.05 ml) on retrobulbar blood flow velocities (BFVs) using ultrasound imaging quantification in twenty patients with exudative age-related macular degeneration treated for 6 months. METHODS: Visual acuity (ETDRS), central macular thickness (OCT), peak-systolic, end-diastolic and mean-BFVs in central retinal (CRA), temporal posterior ciliary (TPCA) and ophthalmic (OA) arteries were measured before, 2 days, 3 weeks and 6 months after the first injection. Patients were examined monthly and received 1-5 additional injections depending on ophthalmologic examination results. RESULTS: Six months after the first injection, a significant increase in visual acuity 50.9 ± 25.9 versus 44.4 ± 21.7 (p < 0.01) and decrease in mean central macular thickness 267 ± 74 versus 377 ± 115 μm (p < 0.001) were observed compared to baseline. Although mean-BFVs decreased by 16%±3% in CRA and 20%±5% in TPCA (p < 0.001) 2 days after the first injection, no significant change was seen thereafter. Mean-BFVs in OA decreased by 19%±5% at week 3 (p < 0.001). However, the smallest number of injections (two injections) was associated with the longest time interval between the last injection and month 6 (20 weeks) and with the best return to baseline levels for mean-BFVs in CRA, suggesting that ranibizumab had reversible effects on native retinal vascular supply after its discontinuation. Moreover, a significant correlation between the number of injections and percentage of changes in mean-BFVs in CRA was observed at month 6 (R = 0.74, p < 0.001) unlike TPCA or OA. CONCLUSION: Ranibizumab could impair the native choroidal and retinal vascular networks, but its effect seems reversible after its discontinuation.

El significat de les activitats aquàtiques del nadó des d'una perspectiva evolutiva

Aquest article pretén d’aprofundir des d’una perspectiva evolutiva en l’estudi i l’anàlisi de les activitats aquàtiques del nadó. A partir d’aquí, l’article interpreta des de l’òptica filogenètica i ontogenètica de les activitats aquàtiques dels nadons, quin significat tindran aquestes activitats en el seu desenvolupament general. Per assolir els objectius fixats, l’article utilitza un enfocament fenomenològic (Husserl, 1996) que se sustentarà conceptualment en l’abordatge filogenètic del desenvolupament psicomotriu de Fonseca (1998). Partint d’aquesta estructura, s’estudiaran les raons filogenètiques i ontogenètiques que ens poden significar les activitats aquàtiques del nadó per tal que, en última instància, i des de la línia més existencial de la fenomenologia (Sartre, 1999; Merleau-Ponty, 2000), puguem argumentar la significació evolutiva d’aquestes activitats.

B2B Integration in Global Supply Chains: An Identification of Technical Integration Scenarios

The competitiveness of businesses is increasingly dependent on their electronic networks with customers, suppliers, and partners. While the strategic and operational impact of external integration and IOS adoption has been extensively studied, much less attention has been paid to the organizational and technical design of electronic relationships. The objective of our longitudinal research project is the development of a framework for understanding and explaining B2B integration. Drawing on existing literature and empirical cases we present a reference model (a classification scheme for B2B Integration). The reference model comprises technical, organizational, and institutional levels to reflect the multiple facets of B2B integration. In this paper we onvestigate the current state of electronic collaboration in global supply chains focussing on the technical view. Using an indepth case analysis we identify five integration scenarios. In the subsequent confirmatory phase of the research we analyse 112 real-world company cases to validate these five integration scenarios. Our research advances and deepens existing studies by developing a B2B reference model, which reflects the current state of practice and is independent of specific implementation technologies. In the next stage of the research the emerging reference model will be extended to create an assessment model for analysing the maturity level of a given company in a specific supply chain.

Assessment of changes in body water by bioimpedance in acutely ill surgical patients.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationship between changes in body bioelectrical impedance (BI) at 0.5, 50 and kHz and the changes in body weight, as an index of total body water changes, in acutely ill surgical patients during the rapid infusion of isotonic saline solution. DESIGN: Prospective clinical study. SETTING: Multidisciplinary surgical ICU in a university hospital. PATIENTS: Twelve male patients treated for acute surgical illness (multiple trauma n = 5, major surgery n = 7). Selection criteria: stable cardiovascular parameters, normal cardiac function, signs of hypovolemia (CVP < or = 5 mmHg, urine output < 1 ml/kg x h). INTERVENTIONS: After baseline measurements, a 60 min fluid challenge test was performed with normal saline solution, 0.25 ml/kg/min [corrected]. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Body weight (platform digital scale), total body impedance (four-surface electrode technique; measurements at 0.5, 50 and 100 kHz) and urine output. Fluid retention induced a progressive decrease in BI at 0.5, 50 and 100 kHz, but the changes were significant for BI 0.5 and BI 100 only, from 40 min after the beginning of the fluid therapy onwards. There was a significant negative correlation between changes in water retention and BI 0.5, with individual correlation coefficients ranging from -0.72 to 0.95 (p < 0.01-0.0001). The slopes of the regression lines indicated that for each kg of water change, there was a mean decrease in BI of 18 ohm, but a substantial inter-individual variability was noted. CONCLUSION: BI measured at low frequency can represent a valuable index of acute changes in body water in a group of surgical patients but not in a given individual.

Factors associated with elevated pulmonary arterial pressure levels on the echocardiographic assessment in patients with prior pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Factors associated with the detection of raised systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP) levels in patients with a prior episode of pulmonary embolism (PE) are not well known. METHODS: We used the RIETE Registry database to identify factors associated with the finding of sPAP levels ≥50 mm Hg on trans-thoracic echocardiography, in 557 patients with a prior episode of acute, symptomatic PE. RESULTS: Sixty-two patients (11.1%; 95% CI: 8.72-14.1) had sPAP levels ≥50 mm Hg. These patients were more likely women, older, and more likely had chronic lung disease, heart failure, renal insufficiency or leg varicosities than those with PAP levels <50mm Hg. During the index PE event, they more likely had recent immobility, and more likely presented with hypoxemia, increased sPAP levels, atrial fibrillation, or right bundle branch block. On multivariate analysis, women aged ≥70 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.0-3.7), chronic heart or chronic lung disease (HR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.3-4.4), atrial fibrillation at PE presentation (HR: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.3-6.1) or varicose veins (HR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.0-3.3) were all associated with an increased risk to have raised sPAP levels. Chronic heart disease, varicose veins, and atrial fibrillation were independent predictors in women, while chronic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, a right bundle branch block or an S1Q3T3 pattern on the electrocardiogram were independent predictors in men. CONCLUSIONS: Women aged ≥70 years more likely had raised sPAP levels than men after a PE episode. Additional variables influencing this risk seem to differ according to gender.

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and copeptin for predicting survival in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Ventilator-associated pneumonia remains the most common nosocomial infection in the critically ill and contributes to significant morbidity. Eventual decisions regarding withdrawal or maximal therapy are demanding and rely on physicians' experience. Additional objective tools for risk assessment may improve medical judgement. Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, reflecting the individual degree of organ dysfunction, might qualify for survival prediction in ventilator-associated pneumonia. We investigated the predictive value of the SOFA score and copeptin in ventilator-associated pneumonia. METHODS: One hundred one patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia were prospectively assessed. Death within 28 days after ventilator-associated pneumonia onset was the primary end point. RESULTS: The SOFA score and the copeptin levels at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset were significantly elevated in nonsurvivors (P = .002 and P = .017, respectively). Both markers had different time courses in survivors and nonsurvivors (P < .001 and P = .006). Mean SOFA (average SOFA of 10 days after VAP onset) was superior in predicting 28-day survival as compared with SOFA and copeptin at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset (area under the curve, 0.90 vs 0.73 and 0.67, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of serial-measured SOFA significantly exceeds those of single SOFA and copeptin measurements. Serial SOFA scores accurately predict outcome in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

Les besoins des personnes vivant avec le VIH/sida en Suisse

[Table des matières] 1. Zusammenfassung. 2. Introduction et contexte de l'étude. 3. Méthode. 4. Besoins des personnes vivant avec le VIH/sida, amis et partenaires. 5. Etudes donnant des indications sur certaines catégories de besoins des personnes séropositives. 5.1.Programme national VIH/sida de 1999 à 2003. 5. 2. Test de dépistage du VIH. 5.3. Prophylaxie post exposition VIH (PEP). 5.4. La sexualité des personnes vivant avec le VIH/sida. 5.5. Discriminations institutionnelles à l'encontre des personnes vivant avec le VIH en Suisse. 5.6. Evaluation de la stratégie de prévention du sida en Suisse sur mandat de l'Office fédéral de la santé publique : sixième rapport de synthèse. 5.7. Activité de prévention du sida des médecins de premier recours, le counselling pré-test. 5.8. Comparaison 1989/1997 : est-ce que l'amélioration du traitement médical se répercute aussi sur la perception des patients de leur maladie ? 5.9. Histoires individuelles avec le VIH, bien-être psychophysique, coping, charge psychosociale. 5.10. Etude médico-ethnologique sur la prise en charge et les choix thérapeutiques. 5.11. Qualité des soins d'un service ambulatoire spécialisé dans le suivi des patients infectés par le VIH, le point de vue des patients. 5.12. Prévention de la transmission du VIH dans les prisons suisses : analyse secondaire sur la base de la littérature disponible. 5. 13. Recommandations. 5.14. Formation VIH/sida 1989-1999. 5.15. Etude sur les nouveaux traitements du VIH/sida dans la perspective des patients. 5.16. Projet SESAM. 5.17. Etude : Evaluation du site HivNet. 5.18. Etudes relatives à la paupérisation des personnes vivant avec le VIH. 5.19. Travail, revenu et pauvreté chez les personnes vivant avec le VIH/sida de la "Swiss Cohort Study". 5.20. Séropositivité, sida et les assurances sociales. 5.21. Politiques et pratqieus cantonales en matière de prévention VIH/sida et d'éducation sexuelle à l'école. 5.22. Données épidémiologiques sur le VIH/sida issues du système de surveillance. 5.23. Données descriptives issues de la Swiss HIV Cohort Study. 6. Tableau récapitulatif : conclusions et recommandations.

Meta-analysis of estrogen response in MCF-7 distinguishes early target genes involved in signaling and cell proliferation from later target genes involved in cell cycle and DNA repair.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Many studies have been published outlining the global effects of 17 beta-estradiol (E2) on gene expression in human epithelial breast cancer derived MCF-7 cells. These studies show large variation in results, reporting between ~100 and ~1500 genes regulated by E2, with poor overlap. RESULTS: We performed a meta-analysis of these expression studies, using the Rank product method to obtain a more accurate and stable list of the differentially expressed genes, and of pathways regulated by E2. We analyzed 9 time-series data sets, concentrating on response at 3-4 hrs (early) and at 24 hrs (late). We found >1000 statistically significant probe sets after correction for multiple testing at 3-4 hrs, and >2000 significant probe sets at 24 hrs. Differentially expressed genes were examined by pathway analysis. This revealed 15 early response pathways, mostly related to cell signaling and proliferation, and 20 late response pathways, mostly related to breast cancer, cell division, DNA repair and recombination. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that meta-analysis identified more differentially expressed genes than the individual studies, and that these genes act together in networks. These results provide new insight into E2 regulated mechanisms, especially in the context of breast cancer.

Bilan préopératoire pour la chirurgie cardio-vasculaire en urgence [Preoperative assessment in emergency cardiovascular surgery].

In the emergency situation, preoperative patient work-up for cardio-vascular surgery is quite different from the elective setting. We have analyzed a consecutive series of 5576 cases out of which 823 underwent emergency procedures (14.8%). The most frequent problems requiring emergent intervention were peripheral vascular (186 cases; 22.6% of the emergent procedure), followed by coronary artery disease (156 cases; 19.0%), thoracic aortic aneurysms (86 cases; 10.4%), abdominal aortic aneurysms (54 cases; 6.6%), congenital heart disease (36 cases: 4.4%), heart and heart lung transplantation (31 cases; 3.8%), problems with cardiac rythm (25 cases: 3.0%), and others (267 cases: 32.4%). Classification by proportion of urgent procedures with reference to elective operations shows a different picture. As a matter of fact transplantations were always emergency procedures (100%), whereas repair of aortic dissections type A and B was an emergency procedure in 81.5%. Emergency thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysm repair accounted for 30% and 20% respectively and the corresponding proportion for peripheral vascular surgery is 19%. However, emergency surgery for acute coronary ischemia, valvular and congenital heart disease accounted for somewhat less than 10% for each group of these pathologies. Systematic pre-operative diagnostic work-up is a recognized tool for procedure related risk assessment and superior management of diseases. However, hemodynamic instability and other time related events correlated with negative outcome, are the main driving forces for accelerated diagnostic pathways

A prospective study of predictors of poststroke depression.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between early depressive behavior after stroke onset and occurrence of poststroke depression (PSD) at 3- and 12-month follow-up evaluations. METHODS: The study prospectively included 273 patients with first-ever single uncomplicated ischemic stroke. In the stroke unit, nurses scored crying, overt sadness, and apathy daily using an observational method to include patients with comprehension deficits. The Barthel Index was used to assess disability. Follow-up evaluation at months 3 and 12 included psychiatric assessment based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition. RESULTS: Crying (19.8%), overt sadness (50.5%), and apathy (47.6%) were observed. Of the patients observed crying, 4 showed pathologic crying, 19 emotionalism, and 12 catastrophic reactions. Crying and overt sadness, but not apathy, were associated with a subjective experience of depression (p < 0.05). Thirty of 52 (58%) patients observed crying, 12 of 19 (63%) patients with emotionalism, and 5 of 12 (41%) patients with catastrophic reactions developed PSD within the first year. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only severe functional disability (odds ratio [OR], 4.31; 95% CI, 2.41 to 7.69), crying behaviors (OR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.35 to 5.27), and an age <68 years (OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.30 to 4.13) were (p < 0.05) predictors of late PSD development (13% of the variance). CONCLUSIONS: In the stroke unit, crying and overt sadness are more reliable indicators of depressed mood than apathy. In patients with first-ever stroke, crying behaviors soon after stroke, a younger age, and severe disability are predictors of poststroke depression occurrence within the first year after stroke onset.

Global tractography with embedded anatomical priors for quantitative connectivity analysis.

Tractography algorithms provide us with the ability to non-invasively reconstruct fiber pathways in the white matter (WM) by exploiting the directional information described with diffusion magnetic resonance. These methods could be divided into two major classes, local and global. Local methods reconstruct each fiber tract iteratively by considering only directional information at the voxel level and its neighborhood. Global methods, on the other hand, reconstruct all the fiber tracts of the whole brain simultaneously by solving a global energy minimization problem. The latter have shown improvements compared to previous techniques but these algorithms still suffer from an important shortcoming that is crucial in the context of brain connectivity analyses. As no anatomical priors are usually considered during the reconstruction process, the recovered fiber tracts are not guaranteed to connect cortical regions and, as a matter of fact, most of them stop prematurely in the WM; this violates important properties of neural connections, which are known to originate in the gray matter (GM) and develop in the WM. Hence, this shortcoming poses serious limitations for the use of these techniques for the assessment of the structural connectivity between brain regions and, de facto, it can potentially bias any subsequent analysis. Moreover, the estimated tracts are not quantitative, every fiber contributes with the same weight toward the predicted diffusion signal. In this work, we propose a novel approach for global tractography that is specifically designed for connectivity analysis applications which: (i) explicitly enforces anatomical priors of the tracts in the optimization and (ii) considers the effective contribution of each of them, i.e., volume, to the acquired diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) image. We evaluated our approach on both a realistic diffusion MRI phantom and in vivo data, and also compared its performance to existing tractography algorithms.

Escarres et dénutrition: dépistage et évaluation de l'état nutritionnel [Pressure ulcers and undernutrition: screening and assessment of nutritional status]

Acquired pressure ulcer is associated with significant human, economic and functional consequences. Its prevalence varies between 3 and 23% in a community hospital and between 7 and 54% in an elderly home residency. Pressure ulcer healing is a complex process which involves numerous cellular and molecular mechanisms. An altered nutritional status is a contributing factor in the development of pressure ulcers and the delay in pressure ulcer healing. The key to management of undernutrition is screening and early intervention. According to the gravity of undernutrition, various degrees of intervention will be required. Systematic oral supplementation with various nutrients may provide benefit in the prevention of pressure ulcers, but further studies have to be completed in human subjects prior to being recommended for the treatment of pressure ulcers.