Intercomparison and evaluation of global aerosol microphysical properties among AeroCom models of a range of complexity

Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by 12 global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the multi-model-mean data set simulates the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, suggesting that most of the individual global aerosol microphysics models are performing well, although the large model diversity indicates that some models are in poor agreement with the observations. Further work is required to better constrain size-resolved primary and secondary particle number sources, and an improved understanding of nucleation and growth (e.g. the role of nitrate and secondary organics) will improve the fidelity of simulated particle size distributions.

Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model

We use a stratosphere–troposphere composition–climate model with interactive sulfur chemistry and aerosol microphysics, to investigate the effect of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption on stratospheric aerosol properties. Satellite measurements indicate that shortly after the eruption, between 14 and 23 Tg of SO2 (7 to 11.5 Tg of sulfur) was present in the tropical stratosphere. Best estimates of the peak global stratospheric aerosol burden are in the range 19 to 26 Tg, or 3.7 to 6.7 Tg of sulfur assuming a composition of between 59 and 77 % H2SO4. In light of this large uncertainty range, we performed two main simulations with 10 and 20 Tg of SO2 injected into the tropical lower stratosphere. Simulated stratospheric aerosol properties through the 1991 to 1995 period are compared against a range of available satellite and in situ measurements. Stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD) and effective radius from both simulations show good qualitative agreement with the observations, with the timing of peak sAOD and decay timescale matching well with the observations in the tropics and mid-latitudes. However, injecting 20 Tg gives a factor of 2 too high stratospheric aerosol mass burden compared to the satellite data, with consequent strong high biases in simulated sAOD and surface area density, with the 10 Tg injection in much better agreement. Our model cannot explain the large fraction of the injected sulfur that the satellite-derived SO2 and aerosol burdens indicate was removed within the first few months after the eruption. We suggest that either there is an additional alternative loss pathway for the SO2 not included in our model (e.g. via accommodation into ash or ice in the volcanic cloud) or that a larger proportion of the injected sulfur was removed via cross-tropopause transport than in our simulations. We also critically evaluate the simulated evolution of the particle size distribution, comparing in detail to balloon-borne optical particle counter (OPC) measurements from Laramie, Wyoming, USA (41° N). Overall, the model captures remarkably well the complex variations in particle concentration profiles across the different OPC size channels. However, for the 19 to 27 km injection height-range used here, both runs have a modest high bias in the lowermost stratosphere for the finest particles (radii less than 250 nm), and the decay timescale is longer in the model for these particles, with a much later return to background conditions. Also, whereas the 10 Tg run compared best to the satellite measurements, a significant low bias is apparent in the coarser size channels in the volcanically perturbed lower stratosphere. Overall, our results suggest that, with appropriate calibration, aerosol microphysics models are capable of capturing the observed variation in particle size distribution in the stratosphere across both volcanically perturbed and quiescent conditions. Furthermore, additional sensitivity simulations suggest that predictions with the models are robust to uncertainties in sub-grid particle formation and nucleation rates in the stratosphere.

An analysis of the accuracy of magnetopause reconnection rate variations deduced from cusp ion dispersion characteristics

We present an analysis of the accuracy of the method introduced by Lockwood et al. (1994) for the determination of the magnetopause reconnection rate from the dispersion of precipitating ions in the ionospheric cusp region. Tests are made by applying the method to synthesised data. The simulated cusp ion precipitation data are produced by an analytic model of the evolution of newly-opened field lines, along which magnetosheath ions are firstly injected across the magnetopause and then dispersed as they propagate into the ionosphere. The rate at which these newly opened field lines are generated by reconnection can be varied. The derived reconnection rate estimates are then compared with the input variation to the model and the accuracy of the method assessed. Results are presented for steady-state reconnection, for continuous reconnection showing a sine-wave variation in rate and for reconnection which only occurs in square wave pulses. It is found that the method always yields the total flux reconnected (per unit length of the open-closed field-line boundary) to within an accuracy of better than 5%, but that pulses tend to be smoothed so that the peak reconnection rate within the pulse is underestimated and the pulse length is overestimated. This smoothing is reduced if the separation between energy channels of the instrument is reduced; however this also acts to increase the experimental uncertainty in the estimates, an effect which can be countered by improving the time resolution of the observations. The limited time resolution of the data is shown to set a minimum reconnection rate below which the method gives spurious short-period oscillations about the true value. Various examples of reconnection rate variations derived from cusp observations are discussed in the light of this analysis.

Ionospheric convection response to slow, strong variations in a northward interplanetary magnetic field: A case study for January 14, 1988

We analyze ionospheric convection patterns over the polar regions during the passage of an interplanetary magnetic cloud on January 14, 1988, when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rotated slowly in direction and had a large amplitude. Using the assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) procedure, we combine simultaneous observations of ionospheric drifts and magnetic perturbations from many different instruments into consistent patterns of high-latitude electrodynamics, focusing on the period of northward IMF. By combining satellite data with ground-based observations, we have generated one of the most comprehensive data sets yet assembled and used it to produce convection maps for both hemispheres. We present evidence that a lobe convection cell was embedded within normal merging convection during a period when the IMF By and Bz components were large and positive. As the IMF became predominantly northward, a strong reversed convection pattern (afternoon-to-morning potential drop of around 100 kV) appeared in the southern (summer) polar cap, while convection in the northern (winter) hemisphere became weak and disordered with a dawn-to-dusk potential drop of the order of 30 kV. These patterns persisted for about 3 hours, until the IMF rotated significantly toward the west. We interpret this behavior in terms of a recently proposed merging model for northward IMF under solstice conditions, for which lobe field lines from the hemisphere tilted toward the Sun (summer hemisphere) drape over the dayside magnetosphere, producing reverse convection in the summer hemisphere and impeding direct contact between the solar wind and field lines connected to the winter polar cap. The positive IMF Bx component present at this time could have contributed to the observed hemispheric asymmetry. Reverse convection in the summer hemisphere broke down rapidly after the ratio |By/Bz| exceeded unity, while convection in the winter hemisphere strengthened. A dominant dawn-to-dusk potential drop was established in both hemispheres when the magnitude of By exceeded that of Bz, with potential drops of the order of 100 kV, even while Bz remained northward. The later transition to southward Bz produced a gradual intensification of the convection, but a greater qualitative change occurred at the transition through |By/Bz| = 1 than at the transition through Bz = 0. The various convection patterns we derive under northward IMF conditions illustrate all possibilities previously discussed in the literature: nearly single-cell and multicell, distorted and symmetric, ordered and unordered, and sunward and antisunward.

A novel combined biomarker including plasma carotenoids, vitamin C, and ferric reducing antioxidant power is more strongly associated with fruit and vegetable intake than the individual components

BACKGROUND: Monitoring of fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake is fraught with difficulties. Available dietary assessment methods are associated with considerable error, and the use of biomarkers offers an attractive alternative. Few studies to date have examined the use of plasma biomarkers to monitor or predict the F&V intake of volunteers consuming a wide range of intakes from both habitual F&V and manipulated diets. OBJECTIVE: This study tested the hypothesis that an integrated biomarker calculated from a combination of plasma vitamin C, cholesterol-adjusted carotenoid concentration and Ferric Reducing Antioxidant Power (FRAP) had more power to predict F&V intake than each individual biomarker. METHODS: Data from a randomized controlled dietary intervention study [FLAVURS (Flavonoids University of Reading Study); n = 154] in which the test groups observed sequential increases of 2.3, 3.2, and 4.2 portions of F&Vs every 6 wk across an 18-wk period were used in this study. RESULTS: An integrated plasma biomarker was devised that included plasma vitamin C, total cholesterol-adjusted carotenoids, and FRAP values, which better correlated with F&V intake (r = 0.47, P < 0.001) than the individual biomarkers (r = 0.33, P < 0.01; r = 0.37, P < 0.001; and r = 0.14, respectively; P = 0.099). Inclusion of urinary potassium concentration did not significantly improve the correlation. The integrated plasma biomarker predicted F&V intake more accurately than did plasma total cholesterol-adjusted carotenoid concentration, with the difference being significant at visit 2 (P < 0.001) and with a tendency to be significant at visit 1 (P = 0.07). CONCLUSION: Either plasma total cholesterol-adjusted carotenoid concentration or the integrated biomarker could be used to distinguish between high- and moderate-F&V consumers. This trial was registered at www.controlled-trials.com as ISRCTN47748735.

Dating the Thera (Santorin) eruption: evidence versus poor scholarship, and the end of the low chronology

The date of the Late Bronze Age Minoan eruption of the Thera volcano has provoked much debate among archaeologists, not least in a recent issue of Antiquity (‘Bronze Age catastrophe and modern controversy: dating the Santorini eruption’, March 2014). Here, the authors respond to those recent contributions, citing evidence that closes the gap between the conclusions offered by previous typological, stratigraphic and radiometric dating techniques. They reject the need to choose between alternative approaches to the problem and make a case for the synchronisation of eastern Mediterranean and Egyptian chronologies with agreement on a ‘high’ date in the late seventeenth century BC for the Thera eruption.

A combined vacuum crushing and sieving (CVCS) system designed to determine noble gas palaeo-temperatures from stalagmite samples

This paper presents a novel extraction device for water and noble gases from speleothem samples for noble gas paleotemperature determination. The “combined vacuum crushing and sieving (CVCS) system” was designed to reduce the atmospheric noble gas contents from air inclusions in speleothem samples by up to 2 orders of magnitude without adsorbing atmospheric noble gases onto the freshly produced grain surfaces, a process that had often hampered noble gas temperature (NGT) determination in the past. We also present the results from first performance tests of the CVCS system processing stalagmite samples grown at a known temperature. This temperature is reliably reproduced by the NGTs derived from Ar, Kr, and Xe extracted from the samples. The CVCS system is, therefore, suitable for routine determinations of accurate NGTs. In combination with stalagmite dating, these NGTs will allow reconstructing past regional temperature evolutions, and also support the interpretation of the often complex stable isotope records preserved in the stalagmites' calcite.

Peak residential electricity demand and social practices: Deriving flexibility and greenhouse gas intensities from time use and locational data

Peak residential electricity demand takes place when people conduct simultaneous activities at specific times of the day. Social practices generate patterns of demand and can help understand why, where, with whom and when energy services are used at peak time. The aim of this work is to make use of recent UK time use and locational data to better understand: (i) how a set of component indices on synchronisation, variation, sharing and mobility indicate flexibility to shift demand; and (ii) the links between people’s activities and peaks in greenhouse gases’ intensities. The analysis is based on a recent UK time use dataset, providing 1 minute interval data from GPS devices and 10 minute data from diaries and questionnaires for 175 data days comprising 153 respondents. Findings show how greenhouse gases’ intensities and flexibility to shift activities vary throughout the day. Morning peaks are characterised by high levels of synchronisation, shared activities and occupancy, with low variation of activities. Evening peaks feature low synchronisation, and high spatial mobility variation of activities. From a network operator perspective, the results indicate that periods with lower flexibility may be prone to more significant local network loads due to the synchronization of electricity-demanding activities.

Challenges in quantifying wind generation's contribution to securing peak demand

Wind generation's contribution to supporting peak electricity demand is one of the key questions in wind integration studies. Differently from conventional units, the available outputs of different wind farms cannot be approximated as being statistically independent, and hence near-zero wind output is possible across an entire power system. This paper will review the risk model structures currently used to assess wind's capacity value, along with discussion of the resulting data requirements. A central theme is the benefits from performing statistical estimation of the joint distribution for demand and available wind capacity, focusing attention on uncertainties due to limited histories of wind and demand data; examination of Great Britain data from the last 25 years shows that the data requirements are greater than generally thought. A discussion is therefore presented into how analysis of the types of weather system which have historically driven extreme electricity demands can help to deliver robust insights into wind's contribution to supporting demand, even in the face of such data limitations. The role of the form of the probability distribution for available conventional capacity in driving wind capacity credit results is also discussed.

A Lateglacial archaeological site in the far north-west of Europe at Rubha Port an t-Seilich, Isle of Islay, western Scotland: Ahrensburgian-style artefacts, absolute dating and geoarchaeology

The exact pattern, process and timing of the human re-colonization of northern Europe after the end of the last Ice Age remain controversial. Recent research has provided increasingly early dates for at least pioneer explorations of latitudes above 54°N in many regions, yet the far north-west of the European landmass, Scotland, has remained an unexplained exception to this pattern. Although the recently described Hamburgian artefacts from Howburn and an assemblage belonging to the arch-backed point complex from Kilmelfort Cave have established at least a sporadic human presence during earlier stages of the Lateglacial Interstadial, we currently lack evidence for Younger Dryas/Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) activity other than rare stray finds that have been claimed to be of Ahrensburgian affiliation but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We here report the discovery of chipped stone artefacts with technological and typological characteristics similar to those of the continental Ahrensburgian at a locality in western Scotland. A preliminary analysis of associated tephra, pollen and phytoliths, along with microstratigraphic analysis, suggest the artefacts represent one or more episodes of human activity that fall within the second half of GS-1 and the Preboreal period

Dating WF16: exploring the chronology of a Pre-Pottery Neolithic A settlement in the Southern Levant

A pre-requisite for understanding the transition to the Neolithic in the Levant is the establishment of a robust chronology, most notably for the late Epi-Palaeolithic and Pre-Pottery Neolithic A (PPNA) periods. In this contribution we undertake a dating analysis of the Pre-Pottery Neolithic site of WF16, southern Jordan, drawing on a sample of 46 AMS 14C dates. We utilise Bayesian methods to quantify an old wood effect to provide an offset that we factor into chronological models for a number of individual structures at WF16 and for the settlement as a whole. In doing so we address the influence of slope variations in the calibration curve and expose the significance of sediment and sample redeposition within sites of this nature. We conclude that for the excavated deposits at WF16 human activity is likely to have started by c. 11.84 ka cal bp and lasted for at least c. 1590 years, ceasing by c. 10.24 ka cal bp. This is marked by a particularly intensive period of activity lasting for c. 350 years centred on 11.25 ka cal bp followed by less intensive activity lasting a further c. 880 years. The study reveals the potential of WF16 as a laboratory to explore methodological issues concerning 14C dating of early Neolithic sites in arid, erosional environments.

Endothelin-1 and fibroblast growth factors stimulate the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling cascade in cardiac myocytes. The potential role of the cascade in the integration of two signaling pathways leading to myocyte hypertrophy.

Maximally effective concentrations of endothelin-1 (ET-1), acidic FGF (aFGF), or 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) activated mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) by 3-4-fold in crude extracts of myocytes cultured from neonatal rat heart ventricles. Maximal activation was achieved after 5 min. Thereafter, MAPK activity stimulated by ET-1 or aFGF declined to control values within 1-2 h, whereas activation by TPA was more sustained. Two peaks of MAPK activity (a 42- and a 44-kDa MAPK) were resolved in cells exposed to ET-1 or aFGF by fast protein liquid chromatography on a Mono Q column. One major and one minor peak of MAPK kinase (MAPKK) was stimulated by ET-1 or aFGF. Cardiac myocytes expressed protein kinase C (PKC)-alpha, -delta, -epsilon and -zeta as shown immunoblotting. Exposure to 1 microM TPA for 24 h down-regulated PKC-alpha, -delta, and -epsilon, but not PKC-zeta. This maneuver wholly abolished the activation of MAPK on re-exposure to TPA but did not affect the response to aFGF. The effect of ET-1 was partially down-regulated. ET-1 stimulated phospho[3H]inositide hydrolysis 18-fold, whereas aFGF stimulated by only 30%. Agonists which initially utilize dissimilar signaling pathways may therefore converge at the level of MAPKK/MAPK and this may be relevant to the hypertrophic response of the heart.

Stimulation of phosphatidylinositol hydrolysis, protein kinase C translocation, and mitogen-activated protein kinase activity by bradykinin in rat ventricular myocytes: dissociation from the hypertrophic response.

In ventricular myocytes cultured from neonatal rat hearts, bradykinin (BK), kallidin or BK(1-8) [(Des-Arg9)BK] stimulated PtdinsP2 hydrolysis by 3-4-fold. EC50 values were 6 nM (BK), 2 nM (kallidin), and 14 microM [BK(1-8)]. BK or kallidin stimulated the rapid (less than 30 s) translocation of more than 80% of the novel protein kinase C (PKC) isoforms nPKC-delta and nPKC-epsilon from the soluble to the particulate fraction. EC50 values for nPKC-delta translocation by BK or kallidin were 10 and 2 nM respectively. EC50 values for nPKC-epsilon translocation by BK or kallidin were 2 and 0.6 nM respectively. EC50 values for the translocation of nPKC-delta and nPKC-epsilon by BK(1-8) were more than 5 microM. The classical PKC, cPKC-alpha, and the atypical PKC, nPKC-zeta, did not translocate. BK caused activation and phosphorylation of p42-mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) (maximal at 3-5 min, 30-35% of p42-MAPK phosphorylated). p44-MAPK was similarly activated. EC50 values for p42/p44-MAPK activation by BK were less than 1 nM whereas values for BK(1-8) were more than 10 microM. The order of potency [BK approximately equal to kallidin > BK (1-8)] for the stimulation of PtdInsP2 hydrolysis, nPKC-delta and nPKC-epsilon translocation, and p42/p44-MAPK activities suggests involvement of the B2 BK receptor subtype. In addition, stimulation of all three processes by BK was inhibited by the B2BK receptor-selective antagonist HOE140 but not by the B1-selective antagonist Leu8BK(1-8). Exposure of cells to phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate for 24 h inhibited subsequent activation of p42/p44-MAPK by BK suggesting participation of nPKC (and possibly cPKC) isoforms in the activation process. Thus, like hypertrophic agents such as endothelin-1 (ET-1) and phenylephrine (PE), BK activates PtdInsP2 hydrolysis, translocates nPKC-delta, and nPKC-epsilon, and activates p42/p44-MAPK. However, in comparison with ET-1 and PE, BK was only weakly hypertrophic as assessed by cell morphology and patterns of gene expression. This difference could not be attributed to dissimilarities between the duration of activation of p42/p44-MAPK by BK or ET-1. Thus activation of these signalling pathways alone may be insufficient to induce a powerful hypertrophic response.