Strategy selection: An introduction to the modeling challenge

Modeling the mechanisms that determine how humans and other agents choose among different behavioral and cognitive processes-be they strategies, routines, actions, or operators-represents a paramount theoretical stumbling block across disciplines, ranging from the cognitive and decision sciences to economics, biology, and machine learning. By using the cognitive and decision sciences as a case study, we provide an introduction to what is also known as the strategy selection problem. First, we explain why many researchers assume humans and other animals to come equipped with a repertoire of behavioral and cognitive processes. Second, we expose three descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive challenges that are common to all disciplines which aim to model the choice among these processes. Third, we give an overview of different approaches to strategy selection. These include cost‐benefit, ecological, learning, memory, unified, connectionist, sequential sampling, and maximization approaches. We conclude by pointing to opportunities for future research and by stressing that the selection problem is far from being resolved.

Breeding strategies for recurrent selection of maize

The objectives of this work were to analyze theoretical genetic gains of maize due to recurrent selection among full-sib and half-sib families, obtained by Design I, Full-Sib Design and Half-Sib Design, and genotypic variability and gene loss with long term selection. The designs were evaluated by simulation, based on average estimated gains after ten selection cycles. The simulation process was based on seven gene systems with ten genes (with distinct degrees of dominance), three population classes (with different gene frequencies), under three environmental conditions (heritability values), and four selection strategies. Each combination was repeated ten times, amounting to 25, 200 simulations. Full-sib selection is generally more efficient than half-sib selection, mainly with favorable dominant genes. The use of full-sib families derived by Design I is generally more efficient than using progenies obtained by Full-Sib Design. Using Design I with 50 males and 200 females (effective size of 160) did not result in improved populations with minimum genotypic variability. In the populations with lower effective size (160 and 400) the loss of favorable genes was restricted to recessive genes with reduced frequencies.

Inheritance pattern and selection criteria for resistance to soybean cyst nematode races 3 and 9

The objective of this work was to determine soybean resistance inheritance to Heterodera glycines Ichinohe (soybean cyst nematode - SCN) races 3 and 9, as well as to evaluate the efficiency of direct and indirect selection in a soybean population of 112 recombinant inbred lines (RIL) derived from the resistant cultivar Hartwig. The experiment was conducted in a completely randomized design, in Londrina, PR, Brazil. The estimated narrow-sense heritabilities for resistance to races 3 and 9 were 80.67 and 77.97%. The genetic correlation coefficient (r g = 0.17; p<0.01) shows that some genetic components of resistance to these two races are inherited together. The greatest genetic gain by indirect selection was obtained to race 9, selecting to race 3 due to simpler inheritance of resistance to race 9 and not because these two races share common resistance genes. The resistance of cultivar Hartwig to races 3 and 9 is determined by 4 and 2 genes, respectively. One of these genes confers resistance to both races, explaining a fraction of the significant genetic correlation found between resistance to these SCN races. The inheritance pattern described indicates that selection for resistance to SCN must be performed for each race individually.

Allohexaploid pearl millet x elephantgrass population potential for a recurrent selection program

The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential of allohexaploid pearl millet x elephantgrass (HGL) population for a recurrent selection program through open-pollinated progenies. Seventy-eight progenies, one representative sample of the population, and two commercial cultivars, Pioneiro and Paraíso, were evaluated in a 9x9 triple lattice design, in two sites. Plant height and dry matter yield were evaluated in three and four cuts, respectively. For plant height, the 17 best progenies were similar to both commercial controls, while for dry matter yield they were higher than 'Paraíso' and lower than 'Pioneiro'. The correlation between progenies and cuts indicated that the fourth cut represents the mean of all cuts, and the possibility of using early selection. Heritability estimates considering cuts and sites were 56.9% for plant height and 58.8% for dry matter yield, and the expected response to selection was 23.4% for dry matter yield and 18.1% for plant height. These results demonstrate the promising HGL population potential for a recurrent selection program.

Análise genética de escores de avaliação visual de bovinos com modelos bayesianos de limiar e linear

O objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar as estimativas de parâmetros genéticos obtidas em análises bayesianas uni-característica e bi-característica, em modelo animal linear e de limiar, considerando-se as características categóricas morfológicas de bovinos da raça Nelore. Os dados de musculosidade, estrutura física e conformação foram obtidos entre 2000 e 2005, em 3.864 animais de 13 fazendas participantes do Programa Nelore Brasil. Foram realizadas análises bayesianas uni e bi-características, em modelos de limiar e linear. De modo geral, os modelos de limiar e linear foram eficientes na estimação dos parâmetros genéticos para escores visuais em análises bayesianas uni-características. Nas análises bi-características, observou-se que: com utilização de dados contínuos e categóricos, o modelo de limiar proporcionou estimativas de correlação genética de maior magnitude do que aquelas do modelo linear; e com o uso de dados categóricos, as estimativas de herdabilidade foram semelhantes. A vantagem do modelo linear foi o menor tempo gasto no processamento das análises. Na avaliação genética de animais para escores visuais, o uso do modelo de limiar ou linear não influenciou a classificação dos animais, quanto aos valores genéticos preditos, o que indica que ambos os modelos podem ser utilizados em programas de melhoramento genético.

Cross-Cultural Adaptation and Validation of the Spinal Function Sort (SFS) for French- and German-Speaking Patients with Back Complaints

Aim: Functional subjective evaluation through questionnaire is fundamental, but not often realized in patients with back complaints, notably because of lack of validated tools, in accordance with recognized psychometric criteria. The Spinal Function Sort (SFS), developed according to actual standards, was only validated in English. The aim of this study is to translate, adapt and validate the French and German version of the SFS.Method and material: The translation and cross-cultural adaptation were performed following the methodology proposed by the American Association of Orthopedist Surgeon. A total of 344 patients, presenting varied back complaints (especially degenerative and traumatic), took part in this study in a tertiary French- (n=87; mean age 44y; 17 women) and German-speaking (n=257; mean age 41y; 53 women) center. Test-retest reliability was quantified using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and construct validity was assessed by estimating the Pearson's correlation with the SF-36 physical and mental scales, the Visual Analogue Scale for Pain Intensity (VAS), and subscales of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS).Results: Respectively for the French and German version, ICC were 0.98 and 0.94. Correlations 0.63 and 0.67 with the SF-36 Physical Functioning subscale; 0.60 and 0.52 with the SF-36 Physical Summary Scale ; -0.33 and -0.51 with the VAS ; -0.08 and 0.25 with the SF-36 Mental Health scale; 0.01 and 0.28 with the SF-36 Mental Summary Scale; -0.26 and -0.42 with the HADS depression; -0.17 and -0.45 with the HADS anxiety.Discussion: For both the French and German version of the SFS, the reliability was excellent. Convergent construct validity with SF-36 physical scales is good, moderated with the VAS. We find out a low correlation with SF-36 mental scales (divergent construct validity). We find out a low correlation with HADS subscales in the French version, and a moderate one in the German version. Selection bias, chronicity of the complaints, as well as cultural differences could explain these results. In conclusion, both the French and German version of the SFS are valid and reliable for evaluation of perceived functional capacity for patients with back complaints.

Visuospatial working memory deficits and visual pursuit impairments are not directly related in schizophrenia.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with schizophrenia show deficits in visuospatial working memory and visual pursuit processes. It is currently unclear, however, whether both impairments are related to a common neuropathological origin. The purpose of the present study was therefore to examine the possible relations between the encoding and the discrimination of dynamic visuospatial stimuli in schizophrenia. METHOD: Sixteen outpatients with schizophrenia and 16 control subjects were asked to encode complex disc displacements presented on a screen. After a delay, participants had to identify the previously presented disc trajectory from a choice of six static linear paths, among which were five incorrect paths. The precision of visual pursuit eye movements during the initial presentation of the dynamic stimulus was assessed. The fixations and scanning time in definite regions of the six paths presented during the discrimination phase were investigated. RESULTS: In comparison with controls, patients showed poorer task performance, reduced pursuit accuracy during incorrect trials and less time scanning the correct stimulus or the incorrect paths approximating its global structure. Patients also spent less time scanning the leftmost portion of the correct path even when making a correct choice. The accuracy of visual pursuit and head movements, however, was not correlated with task performance. CONCLUSIONS: The present study provides direct support for the hypothesis that active integration of visuospatial information within working memory is deficient in schizophrenia. In contrast, a general impairment of oculomotor mechanisms involved in smooth pursuit did not appear to be directly related to lower visuospatial working memory performance in schizophrenia.

The branch-site test of positive selection is surprisingly robust but lacks power under synonymous substitution saturation and variation in GC

Positive selection is widely estimated from protein coding sequence alignments by the nonsynonymous-to-synonymous ratio omega. Increasingly elaborate codon models are used in a likelihood framework for this estimation. Although there is widespread concern about the robustness of the estimation of the omega ratio, more efforts are needed to estimate this robustness, especially in the context of complex models. Here, we focused on the branch-site codon model. We investigated its robustness on a large set of simulated data. First, we investigated the impact of sequence divergence. We found evidence of underestimation of the synonymous substitution rate for values as small as 0.5, with a slight increase in false positives for the branch-site test. When dS increases further, underestimation of dS is worse, but false positives decrease. Interestingly, the detection of true positives follows a similar distribution, with a maximum for intermediary values of dS. Thus, high dS is more of a concern for a loss of power (false negatives) than for false positives of the test. Second, we investigated the impact of GC content. We showed that there is no significant difference of false positives between high GC (up to similar to 80%) and low GC (similar to 30%) genes. Moreover, neither shifts of GC content on a specific branch nor major shifts in GC along the gene sequence generate many false positives. Our results confirm that the branch-site is a very conservative test.

Iowa Pavement Asset Management Decision-Making Framework & Pavement Treatment Selection Tool for Local Agencies, TR-651, 2015

Most local agencies in Iowa currently make their pavement treatment decisions based on their limited experience due primarily to lack of a systematic decision-making framework and a decision-aid tool. The lack of objective condition assessment data of agency pavements also contributes to this problem. This study developed a systematic pavement treatment selection framework for local agencies to assist them in selecting the most appropriate treatment and to help justify their maintenance and rehabilitation decisions. The framework is based on an extensive literature review of the various pavement treatment techniques in terms of their technical applicability and limitations, meaningful practices of neighboring states, and the results of a survey of local agencies. The treatment selection framework involves three different steps: pavement condition assessment, selection of technically feasible treatments using decision trees, and selection of the most appropriate treatment considering the return-on-investment (ROI) and other non-economic factors. An Excel-based spreadsheet tool that automates the treatment selection framework was also developed, along with a standalone user guide for the tool. The Pavement Treatment Selection Tool (PTST) for Local Agencies allows users to enter the severity and extent levels of existing distresses and then, recommends a set of technically feasible treatments. The tool also evaluates the ROI of each feasible treatment and, if necessary, it can also evaluate the non-economic value of each treatment option to help determine the most appropriate treatment for the pavement. It is expected that the framework and tool will help local agencies improve their pavement asset management practices significantly and make better economic and defensible decisions on pavement treatment selection.

Is tagging with visual implant elastomer a reliable technique for marking earthworms?

Visual implant elastomer (VIE) has recently been employed to investigate different aspects of earthworm ecology. However, a number of fundamental questions relating to the detection and positioning of the tag, its persistence and potential effects on earthworms remain unknown. Seven earthworm species belonging to three ecological groupings, with different pigmentation and burrowing behaviour, were tagged using different coloured VIE. External inspection after two days, one week and 1, 10 and 27 months were followed by preservation, dissection and internal inspection. Tags could be seen in living specimens to 27 months, and dissection revealed that in most cases they were lodged in the coelomic cavity, held in place by septa. However, over longer time periods (more than two years), the chlorogogenous tissue tended to bind to the tags and made external observation increasingly difficult. Migration of the VIE material towards the posterior of the earthworm and potential loss of the tag were only observed on rare occasions, and a recovery rate in excess of 98% was recorded. By introducing a reasonable amount of VIE into segments, just after the clitellum, this technique can become a valuable tool in earthworm ecology and life history studies, particularly in short-medium term laboratory and field experiments.

Postictal cortical visual impairment: A symptom of posterior reversible encephalopathy.

We describe a patient presenting with a first generalized convulsion after alcohol consumption, in whom the early postictal finding of a rapidly regressive cortical visual impairment suggested the presence of a posterior reversible encephalopathy. This was confirmed radiologically, and probably represented the key factor in the seizure etiology.

Selection strategies of segregant soybean populations for resistance to Asian rust

The objective of this work was to identify the best selection strategies for the more promising parental combinations to obtain lines with good resistance to soybean Asian rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi). Two experiments were carried out in the field during the 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 growing seasons, to determine the percentage of infected leaf area of individual plants of five parents and their segregant F2 and F3 populations. The data obtained indicates that additive genetic variance predominates in the control of soybean resistance to Asian rust, and that the year and time of assessment do not significantly influence the estimates of the genetic parameters obtained. The narrow-sense heritability (h²r) ranged from 23.12 to 55.83%, and indicates the possibility of successful selection of resistant individuals in the early generations of the breeding program. All the procedures used to select the most promising populations to generate superior inbred lines for resistance to P. pachyrhizi presented similar results and identified the BR01-18437 x BRS 232 population as the best for inbred line selection.

Leaf plasticity in successive selection cycles of 'Saracura' maize in response to periodic soil flooding

The objective of this work was to assess the effect of successive selection cycles on leaf plasticity of 'Saracura' maize BRS-4154 under periodical flooding in field conditions. Soil flooding started at the six-leaf stage with the application of a 20-cm depth water layer three times a week. At flowering, samples of leaves were collected and fixed. Paradermic and transverse sections were observed under photonic microscope. Several changes were observed throughout the selection cycles, such as modifications in the number and size of the stomata, higher amount of vascular bundles and the resulting decrease of the distance between them, smaller diameter of the metaxylem, decrease of cuticle and epidermis thickness, decrease of number and size of bulliform cells, increase of phloem thickness, smaller sclerenchyma area. Therefore, the successive selection cycles of 'Saracura' maize resulted in changes in the leaf anatomy, which might be favorable to the plant's tolerance to the intermittent flooding of the soil.

Habitat fragmentation, ecology and sexual selection in forest bird species in Monteverde, Costa Rica

Abstract Forest fragmentation is often associated with local extinction and changes in species abundance patterns. The main topic of this thesis is the effect of forest fragmentation on birds in Monteverde, Costa Rica. This thesis also studies aspects of sexual selection and ecology of Long-tailed Manakins, Chiroxiphia Linearis. Chapter 1 investigates bird species assemblages in two degrees of forest fragmentation. It is shown that the distribution, abundance and diversity of forest bird species are strongly influenced by the amount of forest in the landscape matrix. Presence of cattle within the forest influences the presence of some bird species. The prevalence and intensity of ticks and blood parasites on birds in relation to fragmentation is described in Chapter 2. Overall tick prevalence is 3%. Understory birds are significantly more infested with ticks than species at intermediate heights. Tick prevalence on birds does not differ significantly between two degrees of forest fragmentation and individual tick loads tend to be higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. Infestations by the blood parasites Haemoproteus sp. was low except in white-eared ground sparrow, Melozone leucotis, that is 28% and is significantly higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. In chapter 3 results on the ecology and habitat movements of the Bare-necked Umbrellabird, Cephalopterus glabricollis, are presented. The abundance of umbrellabirds at high elevations during the breeding season coincides with the highest peak of fruit abundance. Birds leave the protected area during the non-breeding season moving to unprotected forest fragments. In chapter 4 ontogenetic changes in feather morphology through sexual maturity in Long-tailed Manakins are described. In adult males, rectrices length is positively correlated to testis volume. Changes in male morphology during ontogeny in the long-tailed manakin appear to be associated with their specific-display behaviours. Significant interpopulation differences in the morphology of Long-tailed Manakins are shown in chapter 5. These differences are more accentuated in morphological traits related to flight displays. A field experiment demonstrates that long rectrices impose flying costs for males and females. A reduction in flying ability was found to be strongest in males from a population presenting the highest degree of sexual dimorphism. Résumé La fragmentation des forêts est souvent associée avec des modifications dans l'abondance des espèces et des extinctions locales. Le thème principale de cette thèse est l'étude de l'effet de la fragmentation des forêts sur les oiseaux de Monteverde, Costa Rica. Elle décrit par ailleurs certains aspects de la sélection sexuelle et l'écologie du manakin à longue queue, Chiroxiphia linearis. Dans le Chapitre 1 je montre que la distribution, l'abondance et la diversité des assemblages d'oiseaux vivant dans la forêt sont fortement influencées pas le degré de fragmentation de celle ci. Par ailleurs, la présence ou l'absence de bétail dans les forêts influence la présence de certaines espèces d'oiseaux. Dans le chapitre 2 j'ai étudié la prévalence et l'intensité d'infestation par des tiques ainsi que la présence de parasites sanguins chez les oiseaux en relation avec la fragmentation des forêts. La prévalence globale de tiques est de 3 %, les oiseaux vivant au niveau du sol étaient plus souvent infectés par des tiques que les espèces se déplaçant à un niveau plus élevé. La prévalence de tiques sur les oiseaux n'était pas significativement différente entre les paysages avec différentes fragmentations. Les parasites sanguins du genre Haemoproteus sp. étaient présents à très basse fréquence à l'exception chez Melozone leucotis ou la prevalence était de 28% et significativement plus élevée chez les oiseaux vivant dans les forêts à forte fragmentation. Dans le Chapitre 3 je présente des résultats sur l'écologie et les mouvements entre habitats chez le "Bare-necked umbrellabird", Cephalopterus glabricollis. Cette espèce endémique du Costa Rica niche à haute altitude durant la période d'abondance des fruits et réalise une migration altitudinale vers des zones basses durant la saison de non reproduction. Dans le chapitre 4 je présente les changements ontogénétiques dans la morphologie du plumage des manakins à longue queue. Chez les mâles, les changements de morphologie semblent être associés avec leurs comportements de parade spécifiques. Dans le chapitre 5 je présente des différences morphologiques significative entre deux populations chez le manakin à longue queue et je montre que la capacité de vols chez les mâles est plus fortement influencée dans la population avec le degré de dimorphisme sexuel le plus prononcé.