Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Spatial variation in the temporal change of male and female melanic ornamentation in the barn owl.

Because the magnitude of selection can vary between sexes and in space and time, sexually antagonistic selection is difficult to demonstrate. In a Swiss population of barn owls (Tyto alba), a heritable eumelanic colour trait (size of black spots on ventral feathers) was positively selected with respect to yearling survival only in females. It remains unclear whether the absence of negative selection in males is typical in this species. To tackle this issue indirectly, we measured the size of black spots in 1733 skin specimens collected by museums from 1816 to 2001 in seven European countries and in the Middle-East. The temporal change in spot size was sex- and country-specific. In males, spots became smaller particularly in three countries (Middle-East, Italy and Switzerland). In females, the size of spots increased significantly in two countries (UK and Spain) and decreased in two others (Germany and Switzerland). Because migration and phenotypic plasticity cannot explain these results, selection is the most likely cause. The weaker temporal change in spot size in females than males may be because of the combined effect of strong genetic correlation between the sexes and stronger negative selection in males than positive selection in females. We thus suggest that in the barn owl, spot size (or genetically correlated traits) is sexually antagonistically selected and that its pattern of selection may account for the maintenance of its variation and sexual dimorphism.

Soil fauna as an indicator of soil quality in forest stands, pasture and secondary forest

The interactions between soil invertebrates and environmental variations are relatively unknown in the assessment of soil quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate soil quality in areas with different soil management systems, based on soil fauna as indicator, in Além Paraíba, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The soil invertebrate community was sampled using pitfall traps, in the dry and rainy seasons, from areas with five vegetation types (acacia, mimosa, eucalyptus, pasture, and secondary forest). The abundance of organisms and the total and average richness, Shannon's diversity index, the Pielou uniformity index, and change index V were determined. The fauna was most abundant in the areas of secondary forest and mimosa plantations in the dry season (111.3 and 31.7 individuals per trap per day, respectively). In the rainy season, the abundance of organisms in the three vegetation types did not differ. The highest values of average and total richness were recorded in the secondary forest in the dry season and in the mimosa stand in the rainy season. Shannon's index ranged from 1.57 in areas with acacia and eucalyptus in the rainy season to 3.19 in the eucalyptus area in the dry season. The uniformity index was highest in forest stands (eucalyptus, acacia and mimosa) in the dry season, but higher in the rainy season in the pasture and secondary forest than in the forest stands. The change index V indicated that the percentage of extremely inhibited groups was lowest in the area with mimosa, both in the dry and rainy season (36 and 23 %, respectively). Of all forest stands, the mimosa area had the most abundant soil fauna.

The application of agricultural land rating and crop models to CO2 and climate change issues in Northern regions : the Mackenzie Basin case study

Selostus: Viljelyvyöhykkeiden ja kasvumallien soveltaminen ilmastonmuutoksen tutkimisessa: Mackenzien jokialue, Kanada

One billion years of bZIP transcription factor evolution: conservation and change in dimerization and DNA-binding site specificity.

The genomic era has revealed that the large repertoire of observed animal phenotypes is dependent on changes in the expression patterns of a finite number of genes, which are mediated by a plethora of transcription factors (TFs) with distinct specificities. The dimerization of TFs can also increase the complexity of a genetic regulatory network manifold, by combining a small number of monomers into dimers with distinct functions. Therefore, studying the evolution of these dimerizing TFs is vital for understanding how complexity increased during animal evolution. We focus on the second largest family of dimerizing TFs, the basic-region leucine zipper (bZIP), and infer when it expanded and how bZIP DNA-binding and dimerization functions evolved during the major phases of animal evolution. Specifically, we classify the metazoan bZIPs into 19 families and confirm the ancient nature of at least 13 of these families, predating the split of the cnidaria. We observe fixation of a core dimerization network in the last common ancestor of protostomes-deuterostomes. This was followed by an expansion of the number of proteins in the network, but no major dimerization changes in interaction partners, during the emergence of vertebrates. In conclusion, the bZIPs are an excellent model with which to understand how DNA binding and protein interactions of TFs evolved during animal evolution.

Major environmental change and bonebed genesis prior to the Triassic-Jurassic mass extinction

We present new geochemical and sedimentological data from marginal marine strata of Penarth Bay, south Wales (UK) to elucidate the origin of widespread but enigmatic concentrations of vertebrate hard parts (bonebeds) in marine successions of Rhaetian age (late Triassic). Sedimentological evidence shows that the phosphatic constituents of the bonebeds were subjected to intense phosphatization in shallow current-dominated settings and subsequently reworked and transported basinward by storms. Interbedded organic-rich strata deposited under quiescent and poorly oxygenated conditions record enhanced phosphorus regeneration from sedimentary organic matter into the water column and probably provided the main source of phosphate required for heavy bonebed clast phosphatization. The stratigraphically limited interval showing evidence for oxygen depletion and accelerated P-cycling coincides with a negative 4% organic carbon isotope excursion, which possibly reflects supra-regional changes in carbon cycling and clearly predates the 'initial isotope excursion' characterizing many Triassic-Jurassic boundary strata. our data indicate that Rhaetian bonebeds are the lithological signature of profound, climatically driven changes in carbon cycling and redox conditions and support the idea of a multi-pulsed environmental crisis at the end of the Triassic, possibly linked to successive episodes of igneous activity in the central Atlantic Magmatic Province.

Northern agriculture : constraints and responses to global climate change

Selostus: Maatalous pohjoisilla äärialueilla: ilmastolliset rajoitukset ja ilmaston muutosten vaikutukset viljelyyn

Soil functioning in a toposequence under rainforest in São Paulo, Brazil

Studies of soil-water dynamics using toposequences are essential to improve the understanding of soil-water-vegetation relationships. This study assessed the hydro-physical and morphological characteristics of soils of Atlantic Rainforest in the Parque Estadual de Carlos Botelho, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The study area of 10.24 ha (320 x 320 m) was covered by dense tropical rainforest (Atlantic Rainforest). Based on soil maps and topographic maps of the area, a representative transect of the soil in this plot was chosen and five soil trenches were opened to determine morphological properties. To evaluate the soil hydro-physical functioning, soil particle size distribution, bulk density (r), particle density (r s), soil water retention curves (SWRC), field saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), macroporosity (macro), and microporosity (micro) and total porosity (TP) were determined. Undisturbed samples were collected for micromorphometric image analysis, to determine pore size, shape, and connectivity. The soils in the study area were predominantly Inceptisols, and secondly Entisols and Epiaquic Haplustult. In the soil hydro-physical characterization of the selected transect, a change was observed in Ks between the surface and subsurface layers, from high/intermediate to intermediate/low permeability. This variation in soil-water dynamics was also observed in the SWRC, with higher water retention in the subsurface horizons. The soil hydro-physical behavior was influenced by the morphogenetic characteristics of the soils.

Mineralization of organic phosphorus in soil size fractions under different vegetation covers in the north of Rio de Janeiro

In unfertilized, highly weathered tropical soils, phosphorus (P) availability to plants is dependent on the mineralization of organic P (Po) compounds. The objective of this study was to estimate the mineralization of total and labile Po in soil size fractions of > 2.0, 2.0-0.25 and < 0.25 mm under leguminous forest tree species, pasture and "capoeira" (secondary forest) in the 0-10 cm layer of a Red-Yellow Latosol after 90 d of incubation. The type of vegetation cover, soil incubation time and soil size fractions had a significant effect on total P and labile P (Pi and Po) fraction contents. The total average Po content decreased in soil macroaggregates by 25 and 15 % in the > 2.0 and 2.0-0.25 mm fractions, respectively. In contrast, there was an average increase of 90 % of total Po in microaggregates of < 0.25 mm. Labile Po was significantly reduced by incubation in the > 2.0 (-50 %) and < 0.25 mm (-76 %) fractions, but labile Po increased by 35 % in the 2.0-0.25 mm fraction. The Po fraction relative to total extracted P and total labile P within the soil size fractions varied with the vegetation cover and incubation time. Therefore, the distribution of P fractions (Pi and Po) in the soil size fraction revealed the distinctive ability of the cover species to recycle soil P. Consequently, the potential of Po mineralization varied with the size fraction and vegetation cover. Because Po accounted for most of the total labile P, the P availability to plants was closely related to the mineralization of this P fraction.

Potential economic effects of climate change on Finnish agriculture

Selostus: Ilmastonmuutoksen taloudelliset vaikutukset suomalaiseen maatalouteen

Intracellular ubiquitylation of the epithelial Na+ channel controls extracellular proteolytic channel activation via conformational change.

The epithelial Na(+) channel ENaC is a key player in the maintenance of whole body Na(+) balance, and consequently of blood pressure. It is tightly regulated by numerous signaling pathways including ubiquitylation via the ubiquitin-protein ligase Nedd4-2. This mechanism is itself under the control of several kinases, which phosphorylate Nedd4-2, thereby interfering with ENaC/Nedd4-2 interaction, or by Usp2-45, which binds to and deubiquitylates ENaC. Another, different regulatory mechanism concerns the proteolytic activation of ENaC, during which the channel is cleaved on its luminal side by intracellular convertases such as furin, and further activated by extracellular proteases such as CAP-1. This process is regulated as well but the underlying mechanisms are not understood. Previously, evidence was provided that the ubiquitylation status of ENaC may affect the cleavage of the channel. When ubiquitylation of ENaC was reduced, either by co-expressing Usp2-45, or mutating either the ENaC PY-motifs (i.e. the binding sites for Nedd4-2) or intracellular lysines (i.e. ubiquitylation sites), the level of channel cleavage was increased. Here we demonstrate that lysine-mutated ENaC channels are not ubiquitylated at the cell surface, are preferentially cleaved, and Usp2-45 does not affect their cleavage efficiency. We further show by limited proteolysis that the intracellular ubiquitylation status of ENaC affects the extracellular conformation of αENaC, by demonstrating that non-ubiquitylated channels are more efficiently cleaved when treated with extracellularly added trypsin or chymotrypsin. These results present a new paradigm in which an intracellular, post-translational modification (e.g. ubiquitylation) of a transmembrane protein can affect its extracellular conformation.

Physical quality of an Oxisol under an integrated crop-livestock-forest system in the Brazilian Cerrado

Soil physical quality is an important factor for the sustainability of agricultural systems. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate soil physical properties and soil organic carbon in a Typic Acrudox under an integrated crop-livestock-forest system. The experiment was carried out in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Treatments consisted of seven systems: integrated crop-livestock-forest, with 357 trees ha-1 and pasture height of 30 cm (CLF357-30); integrated crop-livestock-forest with 357 trees ha-1 and pasture height of 45 cm (CLF357-45); integrated crop-livestock-forest with 227 trees ha-1 and pasture height of 30 cm (CLF227-30); integrated crop-livestock-forest with 227 trees ha-1 and pasture height of 45 cm (CLF227-45); integrated crop-livestock with pasture height of 30 cm (CL30); integrated crop-livestock with pasture height of 45 cm (CL45) and native vegetation (NV). Soil properties were evaluated for the depths of 0-10 and 10-20 cm. All grazing treatments increased bulk density (r b) and penetration resistance (PR), and decreased total porosity (¦t) and macroporosity (¦ma), compared to NV. The values of r b (1.18-1.47 Mg m-3), ¦ma (0.14-0.17 m³ m-3) and PR (0.62-0.81 MPa) at the 0-10 cm depth were not restrictive to plant growth. The change in land use from NV to CL or CLF decreased soil organic carbon (SOC) and the soil organic carbon pool (SOCpool). All grazing treatments had a similar SOCpool at the 0-10 cm depth and were lower than that for NV (17.58 Mg ha-1).