Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portofolio selection

This paper proposes to estimate the covariance matrix of stock returnsby an optimally weighted average of two existing estimators: the samplecovariance matrix and single-index covariance matrix. This method isgenerally known as shrinkage, and it is standard in decision theory andin empirical Bayesian statistics. Our shrinkage estimator can be seenas a way to account for extra-market covariance without having to specifyan arbitrary multi-factor structure. For NYSE and AMEX stock returns from1972 to 1995, it can be used to select portfolios with significantly lowerout-of-sample variance than a set of existing estimators, includingmulti-factor models.

Hypotensive effect of the active fragment derived from factor XII is mediated by an activation of the plasma kallikrein-kinin system.

Plasma protein fraction (PPF) contaminated by factor XII active fragment (XIIf) may cause hypotensive reactions when infused to patients. This study was planned to assess in conscious normotensive rats whether the blood pressure response to the factor XIIf is mediated by an activation of the plasma kallikrein-kinin system or by stimulation of prostaglandin synthesis. To test whether the factor XIIf-induced blood pressure fall is due partially to an enhanced generation of vasodilating prostaglandins, the blood pressure effect of XIIf (1 microgram i.v.) was investigated 15 min after treatment with indomethacin (5 mg i.v.), an inhibitor of cyclo-oxygenase. Factor XIIf reduced mean blood pressure similarly in indomethacin- and vehicle-treated rats (-23 +/- 4 mmHg, n = 5, and -23 +/- 5 mmHg, n = 4, respectively). Other rats received factor XIIf 15 min after depletion of circulating prekallikrein by the administration of dextran sulfate. Thirty minutes after a 0.25 mg i.v. dose of this agent, plasma prekallikrein activity averaged 0.12 +/- 0.015 mumol/min/ml (n = 6) as compared to 2.48 +/- 0.31 mumol/min/ml in control rats (n = 4, P less than .001). Factor XIIf decreased mean blood pressure by only 4 +/- 2 mm Hg in rats pretreated with dextran sulfate. Thus, it was possible to blunt the acute hypotensive effect of factor XIIf by depleting circulating prekallikrein, but not by inhibiting prostaglandin production. This strongly suggests that the blood pressure effects of factor XIIf is mediated by a stimulation of the plasma kallikrein-kinin system.

Factor structure of the SOCRATES questionnaire in hospitalized medical patients.

The Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale (SOCRATES), a 19-item instrument developed to assess readiness to change alcohol use among individuals presenting for specialized alcohol treatment, has been used in various populations and settings. Its factor structure and concurrent validity has been described for specialized alcohol treatment settings and primary care. The purpose of this study was to determine the factor structure and concurrent validity of the SOCRATES among medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use not seeking help for specialized alcohol treatment. The subjects were 337 medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use, identified during their hospital stay. Most of them had alcohol dependence (76%). We performed an Alpha Factor Analysis (AFA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the 19 SOCRATES items, and forced 3 factors and 2 components, in order to replicate findings from Miller and Tonigan (Miller, W. R., & Tonigan, J. S., (1996). Assessing drinkers' motivations for change: The Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale (SOCRATES). Psychology of Addictive Behavior, 10, 81-89.) and Maisto et al. (Maisto, S. A., Conigliaro, J., McNeil, M., Kraemer, K., O'Connor, M., & Kelley, M. E., (1999). Factor structure of the SOCRATES in a sample of primary care patients. Addictive Behavior, 24(6), 879-892.). Our analysis supported the view that the 2 component solution proposed by Maisto et al. (Maisto, S.A., Conigliaro, J., McNeil, M., Kraemer, K., O'Connor, M., & Kelley, M.E., (1999). Factor structure of the SOCRATES in a sample of primary care patients. Addictive Behavior, 24(6), 879-892.) is more appropriate for our data than the 3 factor solution proposed by Miller and Tonigan (Miller, W. R., & Tonigan, J. S., (1996). Assessing drinkers' motivations for change: The Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale (SOCRATES). Psychology of Addictive Behavior, 10, 81-89.). The first component measured Perception of Problems and was more strongly correlated with severity of alcohol-related consequences, presence of alcohol dependence, and alcohol consumption levels (average number of drinks per day and total number of binge drinking days over the past 30 days) compared to the second component measuring Taking Action. Our findings support the view that the SOCRATES is comprised of two important readiness constructs in general medical patients identified by screening.

Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases.

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs.

New evidence on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the Euro area: Implications for macro modelling

This paper evaluates new evidence on price setting practices and inflation persistence in the euro area with respect to its implications for macro modelling. It argues that several of the most commonly used assumptions in micro-founded macro models are seriously challenged by the new findings.

Breeding system and genetic variance in the monogamous, semi-social shrew, Crocidura russula

The population-genetic consequences of monogamy and male philopatry (a rare breeding system in mammals) were investigated using microsatellite markers in the semisocial and anthropophilic shrew Crocidura russula. A hierarchical sampling design over a 16-km geographical transect revealed a large genetic diversity (h = 0.813) with significant differentiation among subpopulations (F-ST = 5-6%), which suggests an exchange of 4.4 migrants per generation. Demic effective-size estimates were very high, due both to this limited gene inflow and to the inner structure of subpopulations. These were made of 13-20 smaller units (breeding groups), comprising an estimate of four breeding pairs each. Members of the same breeding groups displayed significant coancestries (F-LS = 9-10%), which was essentially due to strong male kinship: syntopic males were on average related at the half-sib level. Female dispersal among breeding groups was not complete (similar to 39%), and insufficient to prevent inbreeding. From our results, the breeding strategy of C. russula seems less efficient than classical mammalian systems (polygyny and male dispersal) in disentangling coancestry from inbreeding, but more so in retaining genetic variance.

Money and prices in models of bounded rationality in high inflation economies

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning can do better than a model of rational expectations, we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from the data through a switching regime process. We findthat the rational expectations model and the model of learning both offer very good explanations for the joint behavior of money and prices.

Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.

Glutamine Stimulates Biosynthesis and Secretion of Insulin-like Growth Factor 2 (IGF2), an Autocrine Regulator of Beta Cell Mass and Function.

IGF2 is an autocrine ligand for the beta cell IGF1R receptor and GLP-1 increases the activity of this autocrine loop by enhancing IGF1R expression, a mechanism that mediates the trophic effects of GLP-1 on beta cell mass and function. Here, we investigated the regulation of IGF2 biosynthesis and secretion. We showed that glutamine rapidly and strongly induced IGF2 mRNA translation using reporter constructs transduced in MIN6 cells and primary islet cells. This was followed by rapid secretion of IGF2 via the regulated pathway, as revealed by the presence of mature IGF2 in insulin granule fractions and by inhibition of secretion by nimodipine and diazoxide. When maximally stimulated by glutamine, the amount of secreted IGF2 rapidly exceeded its initial intracellular pool and tolbutamide, and high K(+) increased IGF2 secretion only marginally. This indicates that the intracellular pool of IGF2 is small and that sustained secretion requires de novo synthesis. The stimulatory effect of glutamine necessitates its metabolism but not mTOR activation. Finally, exposure of insulinomas or beta cells to glutamine induced Akt phosphorylation, an effect that was dependent on IGF2 secretion, and reduced cytokine-induced apoptosis. Thus, glutamine controls the activity of the beta cell IGF2/IGF1R autocrine loop by increasing the biosynthesis and secretion of IGF2. This autocrine loop can thus integrate changes in feeding and metabolic state to adapt beta cell mass and function.

The structural dynamics of output growth and inflation: some international evidence

We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output growth volatilities and persistences are accounted for by a combination of three structural shocks. Changes over time in the structure of the economy are limited and permanent variations largely absent. Changes in the volatilities of structural shocks matter.

Unique and conserved functions of B cell-activating factor of the TNF family (BAFF) in the chicken.

The chicken represents the best-characterized animal model for B cell development in the so-called gut-associated lymphoid tissue (GALT) and the molecular processes leading to B cell receptor diversification in this species are well investigated. However, the mechanisms regulating B cell development and homeostasis in GALT species are largely unknown. Here we investigate the role played by the avian homologue of B cell-activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family (BAFF). Flow cytometric analysis showed that the receptor for chicken B cell-activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family (chBAFF) is expressed by mature and immature B cells. Unlike murine and human BAFF, chBAFF is primarily produced by B cells both in peripheral lymphoid organs and in the bursa of Fabricius, the chicken's unique primary lymphoid organ. In vitro and in vivo studies revealed that chBAFF is required for mature B cell survival. In addition, in vivo neutralization with a decoy receptor led to a reduction of the size and number of B cell follicles in the bursa, demonstrating that, in contrast to humans and mice, in chickens BAFF is also required for the development of immature B cells. Collectively, we show that chBAFF has phylogenetically conserved functions in mature B cell homeostasis but displays unique and thus far unknown properties in the regulation of B cell development in birds.

Macrophages promote epithelial repair through hepatocyte growth factor secretion.

Macrophages play a critical role in intestinal wound repair. However, the mechanisms of macrophage-assisted wound repair remain poorly understood. We aimed to characterize more clearly the repair activities of murine and human macrophages. Murine macrophages were differentiated from bone marrow cells and human macrophages from monocytes isolated from peripheral blood mononuclear cells of healthy donors (HD) or Crohn's disease (CD) patients or isolated from the intestinal mucosa of HD. In-vitro models were used to study the repair activities of macrophages. We found that murine and human macrophages were both able to promote epithelial repair in vitro. This function was mainly cell contact-independent and relied upon the production of soluble factors such as the hepatocyte growth factor (HGF). Indeed, HGF-silenced macrophages were less capable of promoting epithelial repair than control macrophages. Remarkably, macrophages from CD patients produced less HGF than their HD counterparts (HGF level: 84âeuro0/00±âeuro0/0027âeuro0/00pg/mg of protein and 45âeuro0/00±âeuro0/0034âeuro0/00pg/mg of protein, respectively, for HD and CD macrophages, Pâeuro0/00<âeuro0/000·009) and were deficient in promoting epithelial repair (repairing activity: 90·1âeuro0/00±âeuro0/004·6 and 75·8âeuro0/00±âeuro0/008·3, respectively, for HD and CD macrophages, Pâeuro0/00<âeuro0/000·0005). In conclusion, we provide evidence that macrophages act on wounded epithelial cells to promote epithelial repair through the secretion of HGF. The deficiency of CD macrophages to secrete HGF and to promote epithelial repair might contribute to the impaired intestinal mucosal healing in CD patients.

Variance reduction methods for simulation of densities on Wiener space

We develop a general error analysis framework for the Monte Carlo simulationof densities for functionals in Wiener space. We also study variancereduction methods with the help of Malliavin derivatives. For this, wegive some general heuristic principles which are applied to diffusionprocesses. A comparison with kernel density estimates is made.

Turismo Rural como factor de desenvolvimento para São Tomé: Proposta das actividades turísticas para Roça de Monte Café e Suas Dependências

O trabalho agora concluído pretende apresentar uma proposta de desenvolvimento do turismo rural para São Tomé. Baseado na análise de estudo de caso de outros países, com objectivo de propor actividades turísticas envolvendo a comunidade local e os representantes do turismo, o estudo tenciona contribuir para a construção de uma imagem positiva da roça de Monte Café e suas dependências, visando o seu desenvolvimento. A referida Roça, enquanto um património arquitectónico, histórico, cultural, agroeconómico e natural, oferece as condições necessárias para a prática de turismo, relacionadas com a aventura, o espaço rural e a ecologia. Tais aspectos, aliados a uma infra-estrutura e a um planeamento adequado, tornam-se um excelente produto turístico. Com aplicação do inquérito por questionário para os residentes, comprova-se a possibilidade de implementação do projecto do ponto de vista social, desde que seja planeado de forma a prever impactos negativos e positivos futuros, e garantir um turismo sustentável.

Variaciones en el factor de condición, coeficiente alimentario y alimentación de la Sardina Peruana (Sardinops sagax sagax) durante el período 1975-1986

En un total de 28,265 individuos de Sardina se estudiaron el factor de condición, el coeficiente alimentario y los ítems alimentarios entre 1975 y 1986. Los cambios observados comparados a la situación “normal” en 1980. Durante El Niño 1976-77 la sardina ingirió más fitoplancton que zooplancton, aumentando el coeficiente alimentario pero decreciendo el factor condición.