Exploring smart grid possibilities: a complex systems modelling approach

Smart grid research has tended to be compartmentalised, with notable contributions from economics, electrical engineering and science and technology studies. However, there is an acknowledged and growing need for an integrated systems approach to the evaluation of smart grid initiatives. The capacity to simulate and explore smart grid possibilities on various scales is key to such an integrated approach but existing models – even if multidisciplinary – tend to have a limited focus. This paper describes an innovative and flexible framework that has been developed to facilitate the simulation of various smart grid scenarios and the interconnected social, technical and economic networks from a complex systems perspective. The architecture is described and related to realised examples of its use, both to model the electricity system as it is today and to model futures that have been envisioned in the literature. Potential future applications of the framework are explored, along with its utility as an analytic and decision support tool for smart grid stakeholders.

The housing market channel of monetary policy transmission in the Euro area

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of the housing market in the monetary policy transmission to consumption among euro area member states. It has been argued that the housing market in one country is then important when its mortgage market is well developed. The countries in the euro area follow unitary monetary policy, however, their housing and mortgage markets show some heterogeneity, which may lead to different policy effects on aggregate consumption through the housing market. Design/methodology/approach – The housing market can act as a channel of monetary policy shocks to household consumption through changes in house prices and residential investment – the housing market channel. We estimate vector autoregressive models for each country and conduct a counterfactual analysis in order to disentangle the housing market channel and assess its importance across the euro area member states. Findings – We find little evidence for heterogeneity of the monetary policy transmission through house prices across the euro area countries. Housing market variations in the euro area seem to be better captured by changes in residential investment rather than by changes in house prices. As a result we do not find significantly large house price channels. For some of the countries however, we observe a monetary policy channel through residential investment. The existence of a housing channel may depend on institutional features of both the labour market or with institutional factors capturing the degree of household debt as is the LTV ratio. Originality/value – The study contributes to the existing literature by assessing whether a unitary monetary policy has a different impact on consumption across the euro area countries through their housing and mortgage markets. We disentangle monetary-policy-induced effects on consumption associated with variations on the housing markets due to either house price variations or residential investment changes. We show that the housing market can play a role in the monetary transmission mechanism even in countries with less developed mortgage markets through variations in residential investment.

The “Great Queen of Lightninge Flashes”: the transmission of female-voiced burlesque poetry in the early seventeenth century

The essay uncovers evidence for the construction of the ‘woman author’ in the largely male vogue for bawdy burlesque poetry by tracing the circulation of a pair of verses through seventeenth-century manuscript and print miscellanies. It argues that just as these verses are reworked and recontextualised through the process of transmission, so to their ‘authors’ are re-embodied and ascribed different identities in different publication contexts. Female-voiced bawdy poetry raises particular problems for authorial attribution, rather than searching for the real woman behind the text, the essay examines how the ‘authors’ of female-voiced bawdy poetry were produced and reproduced through shifting formal frameworks and socioliterary networks.

Schooling and the intergenerational transmission of values

We present a model of the evolution of identity via dynamic interaction between the choice of education and the transmission of values in a community from parents to children, when parents care about the preservation of their traditional community values, different from the values of the host society. We compare the educational and socioeconomic outcomes in different scenarios (melting pot versus multiculturalism). If schooling shifts children’s identity away from their parents’ values, parents may choose lower levels of education for their children, at the cost of reducing their future earnings. We show how this effect can be attenuated and reversed when the school or, indeed, the host society are willing to accommodate the values of the community and/or to adjust to these values; otherwise the community gradually becomes alienated. This approach may be applied to the analysis of temporal changes in values and attitudes in a community of immigrants, as well as ethnic, religious, or other minority groups.

Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

A mathematical model for the dynamics of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt with vertical transmission and inflorescence infection

A mathematical model for Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) spread by insect is presented. The model incorporates inflorescence infection and vertical transmission from the mother corm to attached suckers, but not tool-based transmission by humans. Expressions for the basic reproduction number R0 are obtained and it is verified that disease persists, at a unique endemic level, when R0 > 1. From sensitivity analysis, inflorescence infection rate and roguing rate were the parameters with most influence on disease persistence and equilibrium level. Vertical transmission parameters had less effect on persistence threshold values. Parameters were approximately estimated from field data. The model indicates that single stem removal is a feasible approach to eradication if spread is mainly via inflorescence infection. This requires continuous surveillance and debudding such that a 50% reduction in inflorescence infection and 2–3 weeks interval of surveillance would eventually lead to full recovery of banana plantations and hence improved production.

Relative contribution of pre- and post-synaptic effects to the neostigmine-induced recovery of neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium

The relative contribution of the pre- and post-synaptic effects to the neostigmine-induced recovery of neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium was studied. A conjunction of myographical and electrophysiological techniques was employed. The preparation was the sciatic nerve-extensor digitorum longus muscle of the rat, in vitro. The physiological variables recorded were nerve-evoked twitches (generated at 0.1 Hz), tetanic contractions (generated at 50 Hz) and end-plate potentials (epps), generated in trains of 50 Hz. The epps were analyzed in: amplitude of first epp in the train; mean amplitude of the 30th to the 59th epp in the train (epps-plateau); half-decay time of the epp; early tetanic rundown of epps in the train; plateau tetanic rundown of epps in the train; quantal content of the epps and quantal size. In myographical experiments, a concentration of vecuronium was found (0.8 mu m) that affected both twitches and tetanic contractions and a concentration of neostigmine was found (0.048 mu m) that completely restored the twitch affected by vecuronium. The cellular effects of vecuronium and neostigmine, studied alone or in association, in the above-mentioned concentrations, were scrutinized by means of electrophysiological techniques. These showed that vecuronium alone decreased the peak amplitude, the quantal content of epps and the quantal size and reinforced the tetanic rundown of epps. Neostigmine alone increased the peak amplitude, the quantal content and the half-decay time of the epps. When employed in the presence of vecuronium, neostigmine increased both the quantal content of the epps (via a presynaptic effect) and the half-decay time of the epps (via a postsynaptic effect). Seeing the pre- and the post-synaptic effects of neostigmine were of similar magnitude, they permit to conclude that both these effects contributed significantly to the restoration by neostigmine of the neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium.

Capillariaisis (Trichurida, Trichinellidae, Capillaria hepatica) in the Brazilian Amazon: low pathogenicity, low infectivity and a novel mode of transmission

Background: Human capillariasis caused by Capillaria hepatica (syn. Calodium hepaticum) is a rare disease with no more than 40 cases registered around the world. Classically, the disease has severe symptoms that mimic acute hepatitis. Natural reservoirs of C. hepatica are urban rodents (Mus musculus and Rattus novergicus) that harbor their eggs in the liver. After examining the feces of 6 riverine inhabitants (Rio Preto area, 8 degrees 03`S and 62 degrees 53`W to 8 degrees 14`S and 62 degrees 52`W) of the State of Rondonia, Brazil, and identifying C. hepatica eggs in their feces, the authors decided to investigate the real dimension of these findings by looking for two positive signals. Methods: Between June 1(st) and 15(th), 2008, 246 out of 304 individuals were clinically examined. Blood samples were collected, kept under -20 degrees C, and test by the indirect immunofluorescence technique. Results: The first positive signal was the presence of specific antibodies at 1: 150 dilution, which indicates that the person is likely to have been exposed to eggs, most likely non-infective eggs, passing through the food chain or via contaminated food (total prevalence of 34.1%). A second more specific signal was the presence of antibodies at higher titers, thus indicating true infection. Conclusions: The authors concluded that only two subjects were really infected (prevalence of 0.81%); the rest was false-positives that were sensitized after consuming non-embryonated eggs. The present study is the first one carried out in a native Amazonian population and indicates the presence of antibodies against C. hepatica in this population. The results further suggest that the transmission of the parasite occurs by the ingestion of embryonated eggs from human feces and/or carcasses of wild animals. The authors propose a novel mode of transmission, describing the disease as a low pathogenic one, and showing low infectivity.

Worldwide sequence conservation of transmission-blocking vaccine candidate Pvs230 in Plasmodium vivax

Pfs230, surface protein of gametocyte/gamete of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, is a prime candidate of malaria transmission-blocking vaccine. Plasmodium vivax has an ortholog of Pfs230 (Pvs230), however, there has been no study in any aspects on Pvs230 to date. To investigate whether Pvs230 can be a vivax malaria transmission-blocking vaccine, we performed evolutionary and population genetic analysis of the Pvs230 gene (pvs230: PVX_003905). Our analysis of Pvs230 and its orthologs in eight Plasmodium species revealed two distinctive parts: an interspecies variable part (IVP) containing species-specific oligopeptide repeats at the N-terminus and a 7.5 kb interspecies conserved part (ICP) containing 14 cysteine-rich domains. Pvs230 was closely related to its orthologs, Pks230 and Pcys230, in monkey malaria parasites. Analysis of 113 pvs230 sequences obtained from worldwide, showed that nucleotide diversity is remarkably low in the non-repeat 8-kb region of pvs230 (theta pi = 0.00118) with 77 polymorphic nucleotide sites, 40 of which results in amino acid replacements. A signature of purifying selection but not of balancing selection was seen on pvs230. Functional and/or structural constraints may limit the level of polymorphism in pvs230. The observed limited polymorphism in pvs230 should ground for utilization of Pvs230 as an effective transmission-blocking vaccine. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trypanosoma cruzi in Brazilian Amazonia: Lineages TCI and TCIIa in wild primates, Rhodnius spp. and in humans with Chagas disease associated with oral transmission

In this study, we provide phylogenetic and biogeographic evidence that the Trypanosomo cruzi lineages T. cruzi I (TCI) and T. cruzi IIa (TCIIa) circulate amongst non-human primates in Brazilian Amazonia, and are transmitted by Rhodnius species in overlapping arboreal transmission cycles, sporadically infecting humans. TO presented higher prevalence rates, and no lineages other than TCI and TCIIa were found in this study in wild monkeys and Rhodnius from the Amazonian region. We characterised TO and TCIIa from wild primates (16 TO and five TCIIa), Rhodnius spp, (13 TCI and nine TCIIa), and humans with Chagas disease associated with oral transmission (14 TO and five TCIIa) in Brazilian Amazonia. To our knowledge, TCIIa had not been associated with wild monkeys until now. Polymorphisms of ssrDNA, cytochrome b gene sequences and randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) patterns clearly separated TCIIa from TCIIb-e and TCI lineages, and disclosed small intra-lineage polymorphisms amongst isolates from Amazonia. These data are important in understanding the complexity of the transmission cycles, genetic structure, and evolutionary history of T cruzi populations circulating in Amazonia, and they contribute to both the unravelling of human infection routes and the pathological peculiarities of Chagas disease in this region. (C) 2008 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Malaria on the Amazonian frontier: Transmission dynamics, risk factors, spatial distribution, and prospects for control

Little follow-up data on malaria transmission in communities originating from frontier settlements in Amazonia are available. Here we describe a cohort study in a frontier settlement in Acre, Brazil, where 509 subjects contributed 489.7 person-years of follow-up. The association between malaria morbidity during the follow-up and individual, household, and spatial covariates was explored with mixed-effects logistic regression models and spatial analysis. Incidence rates for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria were 30.0/100 and 16.3/100 person-years at risk, respectively. Malaria morbidity was strongly associated with land clearing and farming, and decreased after five years of residence in the area, suggesting that clinical immunity develops among subjects exposed to low malaria endemicity. Significant spatial clustering of malaria was observed in the areas of most recent occupation, indicating that the continuous influx of nonimmune settlers to forest-fringe areas perpetuates the cycle of environmental change and colonization that favors malaria transmission in rural Amazonia.