Regression analysis of top of descent location for idle-thrust descents

In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. In addition to recording TOD, the cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also identified for use as the independent variables in the regression analysis. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajectory parame- ters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowledge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace.

Análisis y planteamiento de modelos de negocio de vídeo over the top (OTT)

Aunque esta no es la primera vez que nuevas compañías y tecnologías revolucionan la forma de entender una industria determinada, los modelos over-the-top (OTT) han provocado una explosión en el consumo de contenidos a través de internet, una revolución en la forma tradicional de comunicarse, de disfrutar de nuevas posibilidades de ocio digital y, por tanto, una transformación a la hora de entender los modelos de monetización de las compañías, actualmente buscando su lugar en la nueva cadena de valor. Ya no cabe duda de que este tipo de servicios se han hecho un hueco en la rutina diaria de las personas pero, a pesar de su rápida adopción y alta tasa de penetración, todo parece indicar que es sólo el comienzo de una nueva era, donde estos nuevos modelos disruptivos, están todavía por definirse. Tras unos años de cambios en el sector de las comunicaciones y entretenimiento digital, es ahora el del consumo audiovisual de entretenimiento el que se está viviendo sus debates más intensos. Este trabajo, presentado como proyecto final dentro del Máster de Consultoría en Gestión de Empresas fruto de la colaboración entre la UPM y la AEC, analiza en profundidad los cambios que está generando la adopción de soluciones de vídeo-OTT en el mercado a todos los niveles: cambios en los patrones de comportamiento de las personas, impactos en los sectores tradicionales (y su traducción en términos económicos y legales), evolución de la tecnología, etc. Todos estos aspectos se visitan haciendo especial hincapié en la cadena de valor y los nuevos modelos de negocio derivados de estas nuevas soluciones permitiendo monetizar estos cambios en un mercado complejo. Como complemento, se presenta un análisis de una de las soluciones líderes en el mercado, NETFLIX. Profundizar en un modelo de negocio de una compañía como esta permite analizar las estrategias seguidas y resultados obtenidos en función de la caracterización del mercado existente en cada momento, tomando notas para tener en cuenta en el planteamiento de modelos de negocio similares. Adicionalmente, en el apartado de recomendaciones para la cadena de valor, se establecen una serie de modelos de negocio que permitan enfrentar la aparición y crecimiento de los servicios OTT desde dos puntos de vista: diferenciación y participación de los mismos. Las aportaciones de valor presentadas, prestan especial atención también sobre las operadoras de telecomunicaciones, uno de los sectores más castigados por la entrada en el mercado de las soluciones de vídeo-OTT, junto con la televisión de pago. Por último, se utilizan todas las conclusiones extraídas de los anteriores apartados (que sirven como caracterización de entorno) para establecer un plan de negocio definiendo una propuesta que podría ser interesante desarrollar en el mercado español, carente actualmente de una solución líder que destaque, como ocurre en otros países. En base a este trabajo, se puede concluir que este tipo de servicios de vídeo-OTT presentan un potencial todavía por desarrollar y que conviene incluir en las estrategias de los próximos años de las compañías del sector, si éstas no quieren perder cuota de un mercado que sin duda evolucionará y revolucionará el mundo de la televisión tal y como existe actualmente.

Mechanical characterization of GdBCO/Ag and YBCO single grains fabricated by top-seeded melt growth at 77 and 300 K

YBaCuO and GdBaCuO + 15 wt% Ag large, single-grain, bulk superconductors have been fabricated via the top-seeded, melt-growth (TSMG) process using a generic NdBCO seed. The mechanical behavior of both materials has been investigated by means of three-point bending (TPB) and transversal tensile tests at 77 and 300 K. The strength, fracture toughness and hardness of the samples were studied for two directions of applied load to obtain comprehensive information about the effect of microstructural anisotropy on the macroscopic and microscopic mechanical properties of these technologically important materials. Splitting (Brazilian) tests were carried out on as-melt-processed cylindrical samples following a standard oxygenation process and with the load applied parallel to the growth-facet lines characteristic of the TSMG process. In addition, the elastic modulus of each material was measured by three different techniques and related to the microstructure of each sample using optical microscopy. The results show that both the mechanical properties and the elastic modulus of both YBCO and GdBCP/Ag are improved at 77 K. However, the GdBCO/Ag samples are less anisotropic and exhibit better mechanical behavior due to the presence of silver particles in the bulk, superconducting matrix. The splitting tensile strength was determined at 77 K and both materials were found to exhibit similar behavior, independently of their differences in microstructure.

Temporally flat top pulse generation from gain switched semiconductor lasers based on a polarization interferometer with variable transfer function

We propose the use of a polarization based interferometer with variable transfer function for the generation of temporally flat top pulses from gain switched single mode semiconductor lasers. The main advantage of the presented technique is its flexibility in terms of input pulse characteristics, as pulse duration, spectral bandwidth and operating wavelength. Theoretical predictions and experimental demonstrations are presented and the proposed technique is applied to two different semiconductor laser sources emitting in the 1550 nm region. Flat top pulses are successfully obtained with input seed pulses with duration ranging from 40 ps to 100 ps.

Estimating the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces on insect herbivore populations: A classic study revisited

Although most ecologists agree that both top-down and bottom-up forces (predation and resource limitation, respectively) act in concert to influence populations of herbivores, it has proven difficult to estimate the relative contributions of such forces in terrestrial systems. Using a combination of time–series analysis of population counts recorded over 16 years and experimental data, we present the first estimates of the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces on the population dynamics of two terrestrial insect herbivores on the English oak (Quercus robur). Data suggest that temporal variation in winter moth, Operophtera brumata, density is dominated by time-lagged effects of pupal predators. By comparison, spatial variation in O. brumata density is dominated by host–plant quality. Overall, top-down forces explain 34.2% of population variance, bottom-up forces explain 17.2% of population variance, and 48.6% remains unexplained. In contrast, populations of the green oak tortrix, Tortrix viridana, appear dominated by bottom-up forces. Resource limitation, expressed as intraspecific competition among larvae for oak leaves, explains 29.4% of population variance. Host quality effects explain an additional 5.7% of population variance. We detected no major top-down effects on T. viridana populations. An unknown factor causing a linear decline in T. viridana populations over the 16-year study period accounts for most of the remaining unexplained variance. We discuss the observed differences between the insect species and the utility of time–series analysis as a tool in assessing the relative importance of top-down and bottom-up forces on herbivore populations.

Food availability and predation risk, rather than intrinsic attributes are the main factors shaping the reproductive decisions of a long-lived predator

Funded by Natural Research Limited Natural Environment Research Council studentship. Grant Numbers: NE/J500148/1, NE/F021402/1

Top-down versus bottom-up and the Ruritanian bean bug

In a recent article, Hunter uses the late George Varley and George Gradwell’s long-term data on the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and green tortrix (Tortrix viridana) populations to propose a method of quantifying the relative importance of top-down effects (because of natural enemies) and bottom-up effects (because of resource competition) in influencing population dynamics. We believe this approach is deeply flawed. Using Varley and Gradwell’s winter moth study, we show that the problems with Hunter’s analysis lie in his misinterpretation of the population dynamics and his inappropriate use of statistical techniques. We also emphasize the importance of distinguishing clearly between two quite different things: firstly, top-down and bottom-up regulation of populations and secondly, the much simpler task of categorizing factors affecting changes in population density as either top-down or bottom-up processes.

Predator-induced stress makes the pesticide carbaryl more deadly to gray treefrog tadpoles (Hyla versicolor)

Global declines in amphibians likely have multiple causes, including widespread pesticide use. Our knowledge of pesticide effects on amphibians is largely limited to short-term (4-d) toxicity tests conducted under highly artificial conditions to determine lethal concentrations (LC50). We found that if we used slightly longer exposure times (10–16 d), low concentrations of the pesticide carbaryl (3–4% of LC504-d) killed 10–60% of gray treefrog (Hyla versicolor) tadpoles. If predatory cues also were present, the pesticide became 2–4 times more lethal, killing 60–98% of tadpoles. Thus, under more realistic conditions of increased exposure times and predatory stress, current application rates for carbaryl can potentially devastate gray treefrog populations. Further, because predator-induced stress is ubiquitous in animals and carbaryl's mode of action is common to many pesticides, these negative impacts may be widespread in nature.

Top-down morphogenesis of colorectal tumors

One of the fundamental tenets of oncology is that tumors arise from stem cells. In the colon, stem cells are thought to reside at the base of crypts. In the early stages of tumorigenesis, however, dysplastic cells are routinely found at the luminal surface of the crypts whereas the cells at the bases of these same crypts appear morphologically normal. To understand this discrepancy, we evaluated the molecular characteristics of cells isolated from the bases and orifices of the same crypts in small colorectal adenomas. We found that the dysplastic cells at the tops of the crypts often exhibited genetic alterations of adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) and neoplasia-associated patterns of gene expression. In contrast, cells located at the base of these same crypts did not contain such alterations and were not clonally related to the contiguous transformed cells above them. These results imply that development of adenomatous polyps proceeds through a top-down mechanism. Genetically altered cells in the superficial portions of the mucosae spread laterally and downward to form new crypts that first connect to preexisting normal crypts and eventually replace them.

The contribution of trait-mediated indirect effects to the net effects of a predator

Many prey modify traits in response to predation risk and this modification of traits can influence the prey's resource acquisition rate. A predator thus can have a “nonlethal” impact on prey that can lead to indirect effects on other community members. Such indirect interactions are termed trait-mediated indirect interactions because they arise from a predator's influence on prey traits, rather than prey density. Because such nonlethal predator effects are immediate, can influence the entire prey population, and can occur over the entire prey lifetime, we argue that nonlethal predator effects are likely to contribute strongly to the net indirect effects of predators (i.e., nonlethal effects may be comparable in magnitude to those resulting from killing prey). This prediction was supported by an experiment in which the indirect effects of a larval dragonfly (Anax sp.) predator on large bullfrog tadpoles (Rana catesbeiana), through nonlethal effects on competing small bullfrog tadpoles, were large relative to indirect effects caused by density reduction of the small tadpoles (the lethal effect). Treatments in which lethal and nonlethal effects of Anax were manipulated independently indicated that this result was robust for a large range of different combinations of lethal and nonlethal effects. Because many, if not most, prey modify traits in response to predators, our results suggest that the magnitude of interaction coefficients between two species may often be dynamically related to changes in other community members, and that many indirect effects previously attributed to the lethal effects of predators may instead be due to shifts in traits of surviving prey.

Top-down free-energy minimization on protein potential energy landscapes

The hierarchical properties of potential energy landscapes have been used to gain insight into thermodynamic and kinetic properties of protein ensembles. It also may be possible to use them to direct computational searches for thermodynamically stable macroscopic states, i.e., computational protein folding. To this end, we have developed a top-down search procedure in which conformation space is recursively dissected according to the intrinsic hierarchical structure of a landscape's effective-energy barriers. This procedure generates an inverted tree similar to the disconnectivity graphs generated by local minima-clustering methods, but it fundamentally differs in the manner in which the portion of the tree that is to be computationally explored is selected. A key ingredient is a branch-selection algorithm that takes advantage of statistically predictive properties of the landscape to guide searches down the tree branches that are most likely to lead to the physically relevant macroscopic states. Using the computational folding of a β-hairpin-forming peptide as an example, we show that such predictive properties indeed exist and can be used for structure prediction by free-energy global minimization.