Assessment of accuracies of some approximate solutions

The classic work of Richardson and Gaunt [1 ], has provided an effective means of extrapolating the limiting result in an approximate analysis. From the authors' work on "Bounds for eigenvalues" [2-4] an interesting alternate method has emerged for assessing monotonically convergent approximate solutions by generating close bounds. Whereas further investigation is needed to put this work on sound theoretical foundation, we intend this letter to announce a possibility, which was confirmed by an exhaustive set of examples.

Damage assessment of structures with uncertainty by using mode-shape curvatures and fuzzy logic

Uncertainties associated with the structural model and measured vibration data may lead to unreliable damage detection. In this paper, we show that geometric and measurement uncertainty cause considerable problem in damage assessment which can be alleviated by using a fuzzy logic-based approach for damage detection. Curvature damage factor (CDF) of a tapered cantilever beam are used as damage indicators. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is used to study the changes in the damage indicator due to uncertainty in the geometric properties of the beam. Variation in these CDF measures due to randomness in structural parameter, further contaminated with measurement noise, are used for developing and testing a fuzzy logic system (FLS). Results show that the method correctly identifies both single and multiple damages in the structure. For example, the FLS detects damage with an average accuracy of about 95 percent in a beam having geometric uncertainty of 1 percent COV and measurement noise of 10 percent in single damage scenario. For multiple damage case, the FLS identifies damages in the beam with an average accuracy of about 94 percent in the presence of above mentioned uncertainties. The paper brings together the disparate areas of probabilistic analysis and fuzzy logic to address uncertainty in structural damage detection.

Is stocking barramundi (Lates calcarifer) in north-eastern Queensland a threat to aquatic biodiversity?

The stocking of predators can have significant consequences on recipient aquatic ecosystems. We investigated some potential ecological impacts of stocking a predatory fish (Lates calcarifer) into a coastal river and a large impoundment in north-eastern Australia. L. calcarifer was mostly found in slower-moving, larger reaches of the river or in the main body of the impoundment where there was abundant suitable habitat. In the tidally influenced freshwater reaches of the coastal river, L. calcarifer predominately consumed aytid and palaemonid shrimp that were associated with local macrophyte beds or littoral grasses. In this area the diets of juvenile stocked and wild L. calcarifer were similar and stocked fish displayed a high degree of site fidelity. Further upstream in the river, away from tidal influence, and in the impoundment, fish were the main prey item. Cannibalism was uncommon and we suggest that, at the current stocking densities, there was little dietary evidence of predatory impacts from L. calcarifer on species of conservation concern. We caution against introducing novel predatory species such as L. calcarifer in or near areas that are outside their natural range and are known to support rare, threatened or endangered species.

Rapid assessment of genotype-by-environment interactions and heritability for growth rate in aquaculture species using in vitro fertilisation and DNA tagging

Commercial environments may receive only a fraction of expected genetic gains for growth rate as predicted from the selection environment. This fraction is result of undesirable genotype-by-environment interactions (GxE) and measured by the genetic correlation (rg) of growth between environments. Rapid estimates of genetic correlation achieved in one generation are notoriously difficult to estimate with precision. A new design is proposed where genetic correlations can be estimated by utilising artificial mating from cryopreserved semen and unfertilised eggs stripped from a single female. We compare a traditional phenotype analysis of growth to a threshold model where only the largest fish are genotyped for sire identification. The threshold model was robust to differences in family mortality differing up to 30%. The design is unique as it negates potential re-ranking of families caused by an interaction between common maternal environmental effects and growing environment. The design is suitable for rapid assessment of GxE over one generation with a true 0.70 genetic correlation yielding standard errors as low as 0.07. Different design scenarios were tested for bias and accuracy with a range of heritability values, number of half-sib families created, number of progeny within each full-sib family, number of fish genotyped, number of fish stocked, differing family survival rates and at various simulated genetic correlation levels.

Stock assessment of the Queensland east coast common coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) fishery

Common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus is an iconic fish of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and is the most important fish for the commercial fishery there. Most of the catch is exported live to Asia. This stock assessment was undertaken in response to falls in catch sizes and catch rates in recent years, in order to gauge the status of the stock. It is the first stock assessment ever conducted of coral trout on the GBR, and brings together a multitude of different data sources for the first time. The GBR is very large and was divided into a regional structure based on the Bioregions defined by expert committees appointed by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) as part of the 2004 rezoning of the GBR. The regional structure consists of six Regions, from the Far Northern Region in the north to the Swains and Capricorn–Bunker Regions in the south. Regions also closely follow the boundaries between Bioregions. Two of the northern Regions are split into Subregions on the basis of potential changes in fishing intensity between the Subregions; there are nine Subregions altogether, which include four Regions that are not split. Bioregions are split into Subbioregions along the Subregion boundaries. Finally, each Subbioregion is split into a “blue” population which is open to fishing and a “green” population which is closed to fishing. The fishery is unusual in that catch rates as an indicator of abundance of coral trout are heavily influenced by tropical cyclones. After a major cyclone, catch rates fall for two to three years, and rebound after that. This effect is well correlated with the times of occurrence of cyclones, and usually occurs in the same month that the cyclone strikes. However, statistical analyses correlating catch rates with cyclone wind energy did not provide significantly different catch rate trends. Alternative indicators of cyclone strength may explain more of the catch rate decline, and future work should investigate this. Another feature of catch rates is the phenomenon of social learning in coral trout populations, whereby when a population of coral trout is fished, individuals quickly learn not to take bait. Then the catch rate falls sharply even when the population size is still high. The social learning may take place by fish directly observing their fellows being hooked, or perhaps heeding a chemo-sensory cue emitted by fish that are hooked. As part of the assessment, analysis of data from replenishment closures of Boult Reef in the Capricorn–Bunker Region (closed 1983–86) and Bramble Reef in the Townsville Subregion (closed 1992–95) estimated a strong social learning effect. A major data source for the stock assessment was the large collection of underwater visual survey (UVS) data collected by divers who counted the coral trout that they sighted. This allowed estimation of the density of coral trout in the different Bioregions (expressed as a number of fish per hectare). Combined with mapping data of all the 3000 or so reefs making up the GBR, the UVS results provided direct estimates of the population size in each Subbioregion. A regional population dynamic model was developed to account for the intricacies of coral trout population dynamics and catch rates. Because the statistical analysis of catch rates did not attribute much of the decline to tropical cyclones, (and thereby implied “real” declines in biomass), and because in contrast the UVS data indicate relatively stable population sizes, model outputs were unduly influenced by the unlikely hypothesis that falling catch rates are real. The alternative hypothesis that UVS data are closer to the mark and declining catch rates are an artefact of spurious (e.g., cyclone impact) effects is much more probable. Judging by the population size estimates provided by the UVS data, there is no biological problem with the status of coral trout stocks. The estimate of the total number of Plectropomus leopardus on blue zones on the GBR in the mid-1980s (the time of the major UVS series) was 5.34 million legal-sized fish, or about 8400 t exploitable biomass, with an 2 additional 3350 t in green zones (using the current zoning which was introduced on 1 July 2004). For the offshore regions favoured by commercial fishers, the figure was about 4.90 million legal-sized fish in blue zones, or about 7700 t exploitable biomass. There is, however, an economic problem, as indicated by relatively low catch rates and anecdotal information provided by commercial fishers. The costs of fishing the GBR by hook and line (the only method compatible with the GBR’s high conservation status) are high, and commercial fishers are unable to operate profitably when catch rates are depressed (e.g., from a tropical cyclone). The economic problem is compounded by the effect of social learning in coral trout, whereby catch rates fall rapidly if fishers keep returning to the same fishing locations. In response, commercial fishers tend to spread out over the GBR, including the Far Northern and Swains Regions which are far from port and incur higher travel costs. The economic problem provides some logic to a reduction in the TACC. Such a reduction during good times, such as when the fishery is rebounding after a major tropical cyclone, could provide a net benefit to the fishery, as it would provide a margin of stock safety and make the fishery more economically robust by providing higher catch rates during subsequent periods of depressed catches. During hard times when catch rates are low (e.g., shortly after a major tropical cyclone), a change to the TACC would have little effect as even a reduced TACC would not come close to being filled. Quota adjustments based on catch rates should take account of long-term trends in order to mitigate variability and cyclone effects in data.

Health assessment of the Christmas Island flying fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis)

During July/August 2010, 28 Christmas Island flying foxes (Pteropus melanotus natalis) were captured and anesthetized for examination, sample collection, and release to determine the potential role of disease in recent population declines. Measurements and samples were taken for morphologic, hematologic, biochemical, and parasitologic analysis. These are the first blood reference ranges reported for this species. These data are being used to inform investigations into conservation status and population management strategies for the Christmas Island flying fox.

Information preferences for the evaluation of coastal development impacts on ecosystem services: A multi-criteria assessment in the Australian context

Ecosystem based management requires the integration of various types of assessment indicators. Understanding stakeholders' information preferences is important, in selecting those indicators that best support management and policy. Both the preferences of decision-makers and the general public may matter, in democratic participatory management institutions. This paper presents a multi-criteria analysis aimed at quantifying the relative importance to these groups of economic, ecological and socio-economic indicators usually considered when managing ecosystem services in a coastal development context. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied within two nationwide surveys in Australia, and preferences of both the general public and decision-makers for these indicators are elicited and compared. Results show that, on average across both groups, the priority in assessing a generic coastal development project is for the ecological assessment of its impacts on marine biodiversity. Ecological assessment indicators are globally preferred to both economic and socio-economic indicators regardless of the nature of the impacts studied. These results are observed for a significantly larger proportion of decision-maker than general public respondents, questioning the extent to which the general public's preferences are well reflected in decision-making processes.

Forest inventory-based large-scale forest biomass and carbon budget assessment: new enhanced methods and use of remote sensing for verification

In recent years, concern has arisen over the effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) in the earth's atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels. One way to mitigate increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change is carbon sequestration to forest vegeta-tion through photosynthesis. Comparable regional scale estimates for the carbon balance of forests are therefore needed for scientific and political purposes. The aim of the present dissertation was to improve methods for quantifying and verifying inventory-based carbon pool estimates of the boreal forests in the mineral soils. Ongoing forest inventories provide a data based on statistically sounded sampling for estimating the level of carbon stocks and stock changes, but improved modelling tools and comparison of methods are still needed. In this dissertation, the entire inventory-based large-scale forest carbon stock assessment method was presented together with some separate methods for enhancing and comparing it. The enhancement methods presented here include ways to quantify the biomass of understorey vegetation as well as to estimate the litter production of needles and branches. In addition, the optical remote sensing method illustrated in this dis-sertation can be used to compare with independent data. The forest inventory-based large-scale carbon stock assessment method demonstrated here provided reliable carbon estimates when compared with independent data. Future ac-tivity to improve the accuracy of this method could consist of reducing the uncertainties regarding belowground biomass and litter production as well as the soil compartment. The methods developed will serve the needs for UNFCCC reporting and the reporting under the Kyoto Protocol. This method is principally intended for analysts or planners interested in quantifying carbon over extensive forest areas.

Controls on trace metals in urban stream sediments : implications for pollution monitoring using sediment chemistry data

Contamination of urban streams is a rising topic worldwide, but the assessment and investigation of stormwater induced contamination is limited by the high amount of water quality data needed to obtain reliable results. In this study, stream bed sediments were studied to determine their contamination degree and their applicability in monitoring aquatic metal contamination in urban areas. The interpretation of sedimentary metal concentrations is, however, not straightforward, since the concentrations commonly show spatial and temporal variations as a response to natural processes. The variations of and controls on metal concentrations were examined at different scales to increase the understanding of the usefulness of sediment metal concentrations in detecting anthropogenic metal contamination patterns. The acid extractable concentrations of Zn, Cu, Pb and Cd were determined from the surface sediments and water of small streams in the Helsinki Metropolitan region, southern Finland. The data consists of two datasets: sediment samples from 53 sites located in the catchment of the Stream Gräsanoja and sediment and water samples from 67 independent catchments scattered around the metropolitan region. Moreover, the sediment samples were analyzed for their physical and chemical composition (e.g. total organic carbon, clay-%, Al, Li, Fe, Mn) and the speciation of metals (in the dataset of the Stream Gräsanoja). The metal concentrations revealed that the stream sediments were moderately contaminated and caused no immediate threat to the biota. However, at some sites the sediments appeared to be polluted with Cu or Zn. The metal concentrations increased with increasing intensity of urbanization, but site specific factors, such as point sources, were responsible for the occurrence of the highest metal concentrations. The sediment analyses revealed, thus a need for more detailed studies on the processes and factors that cause the hot spot metal concentrations. The sediment composition and metal speciation analyses indicated that organic matter is a very strong indirect control on metal concentrations, and it should be accounted for when studying anthropogenic metal contamination patterns. The fine-scale spatial and temporal variations of metal concentrations were low enough to allow meaningful interpretation of substantial metal concentration differences between sites. Furthermore, the metal concentrations in the stream bed sediments were correlated with the urbanization of the catchment better than the total metal concentrations in the water phase. These results suggest that stream sediments show true potential for wider use in detecting the spatial differences in metal contamination of urban streams. Consequently, using the sediment approach regional estimates of the stormwater related metal contamination could be obtained fairly cost-effectively, and the stability and reliability of results would be higher compared to analyses of single water samples. Nevertheless, water samples are essential in analysing the dissolved concentrations of metals, momentary discharges from point sources in particular.

ScreeningCorymbiapopulations for resistance toPuccinia psidii

Disease screening to determine the threat Puccinia psidii poses to plantation and native eucalypts in Australia was undertaken in half-sib families of two contrasting eucalypt species, Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. argophloia. Artificial inoculation with a single-lesion isolate of P. psidii was used to screen these species for resistance to the biotype of P. psidii established in Australia. The objective was to characterize resistance to P. psidii within these two distinct species: E. argophloia, a vulnerable species with a narrow distribution, and E. cloeziana, a species with a broad and extensive distribution in Queensland. Results for E. cloeziana indicate that inland provenances are more resistant to P. psidii infection than provenances from coastal regions. Heritability estimates for the two assessment systems used (resistance on a 1-to-5 ordinal scale verses resistance on a 0-to-1 binomial scale) were low to high (0.24 to 0.63) for E. argophloia and moderate to high (0.4 to 0.91) for E. cloeziana, indicating a significant level of additive genetic variance for rust resistance within the populations. This study demonstrates the potential to select resistant families within the tested populations and indicates that P. psidii could detrimentally affect these species in native forests, nurseries, and plantations.

Screening Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. argophloia populations for resistance to Puccinia psidii

Disease screening to determine the threat Puccinia psidii poses to plantation and native eucalypts in Australia was undertaken in half-sib families of two contrasting eucalypt species, Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. argophloia. Artificial inoculation with a single-lesion isolate of P. psidii was used to screen these species for resistance to the biotype of P. psidii established in Australia. The objective was to characterize resistance to P. psidii within these two distinct species: E. argophloia, a vulnerable species with a narrow distribution, and E. cloeziana, a species with a broad and extensive distribution in Queensland. Results for E. cloeziana indicate that inland provenances are more resistant to P. psidii infection than provenances from coastal regions. Heritability estimates for the two assessment systems used (resistance on a 1-to-5 ordinal scale verses resistance on a 0-to-1 binomial scale) were low to high (0.24 to 0.63) for E. argophloia and moderate to high (0.4 to 0.91) for E. cloeziana, indicating a significant level of additive genetic variance for rust resistance within the populations. This study demonstrates the potential to select resistant families within the tested populations and indicates that P. psidii could detrimentally affect these species in native forests, nurseries, and plantations. Disease screening to determine the threat Puccinia psidii poses to plantation and native eucalypts in Australia was undertaken in half-sib families of two contrasting eucalypt species, Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. argophloia. Artificial inoculation with a single-lesion isolate of P. psidii was used to screen these species for resistance to the biotype of P. psidii established in Australia. The objective was to characterize resistance to P. psidii within these two distinct species: E. argophloia, a vulnerable species with a narrow distribution, and E. cloeziana, a species with a broad and extensive distribution in Queensland. Results for E. cloeziana indicate that inland provenances are more resistant to P. psidii infection than provenances from coastal regions. Heritability estimates for the two assessment systems used (resistance on a 1-to-5 ordinal scale verses resistance on a 0-to-1 binomial scale) were low to high (0.24 to 0.63) for E. argophloia and moderate to high (0.4 to 0.91) for E. cloeziana, indicating a significant level of additive genetic variance for rust resistance within the populations. This study demonstrates the potential to select resistant families within the tested populations and indicates that P. psidii could detrimentally affect these species in native forests, nurseries, and plantations.

Rhipicephalus microplus serine protease inhibitor family: annotation, expression and functional characterisation assessment

Background: Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus evades the host's haemostatic system through a complex protein array secreted into tick saliva. Serine protease inhibitors (serpins) conform an important component of saliva which are represented by a large protease inhibitor family in Ixodidae. These secreted and non-secreted inhibitors modulate diverse and essential proteases involved in different physiological processes. Methods: The identification of R. microplus serpin sequences was performed through a web-based bioinformatics environment called Yabi. The database search was conducted on BmiGi V1, BmiGi V2.1, five SSH libraries, Australian tick transcriptome libraries and RmiTR V1 using bioinformatics methods. Semi quantitative PCR was carried out using different adult tissues and tick development stages. The cDNA of four identified R. microplus serpins were cloned and expressed in Pichia pastoris in order to determine biological targets of these serpins utilising protease inhibition assays. Results: A total of four out of twenty-two serpins identified in our analysis are new R. microplus serpins which were named as RmS-19 to RmS-22. The analyses of DNA and predicted amino acid sequences showed high conservation of the R. microplus serpin sequences. The expression data suggested ubiquitous expression of RmS except for RmS-6 and RmS-14 that were expressed only in nymphs and adult female ovaries, respectively. RmS-19, and -20 were expressed in all tissues samples analysed showing their important role in both parasitic and non-parasitic stages of R. microplus development. RmS-21 was not detected in ovaries and RmS-22 was not identified in ovary and nymph samples but were expressed in the rest of the samples analysed. A total of four expressed recombinant serpins showed protease specific inhibition for Chymotrypsin (RmS-1 and RmS-6), Chymotrypsin / Elastase (RmS-3) and Thrombin (RmS-15). Conclusion: This study constitutes an important contribution and improvement to the knowledge about the physiologic role of R. microplus serpins during the host-tick interaction.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Biomass for aviation fuel production in the Fitzroy Basin, Queensland: a preliminary assessment of native and plantation forest potential

SummaryThis scoping study assesses the contribution that woody biomass could make to feedstock supply for an aviation biofuel industry in Queensland. The inland 600?900 mm rainfall zone, including the Fitzroy Basin region, is identified as an area that is particularly worthy of closer study as it has potential for supply of woody biomass from existing native regrowth (brigalow and other species) as well as from new plantings. New analyses carried out for this study of Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata trials suggest biomass plantings could produce harvestable yield of aboveground dry mass of about 85 t ha?1 over a 10-year rotation at relatively low-rainfall (600?750 mm mean annual precipitation) sites and about 115 t ha?1 at medium-rainfall (750?900 mm) sites. Estimates of productivity for native regrowth suggest potential productivity should be around 40 t ha?1 during the initial decade after clearing when systems are managed for bioenergy rather than grazing. In this paper, potential production systems are described, and sustainability issues are briefly considered. It is concluded that more detailed studies focused particularly on biomass production would be worthwhile, and further research requirements are briefly discussed.