Efficient simulation of a Tandem Jackson Network

The two-node tandem Jackson network serves as a convenient reference model for the analysis and testing of different methodologies and techniques in rare event simulation. In this paper we consider a new approach to efficiently estimate the probability that the content of the second buffer exceeds some high level L before it becomes empty, starting from a given state. The approach is based on a Markov additive process representation of the buffer processes, leading to an exponential change of measure to be used in an importance sampling procedure. Unlike changes of measures proposed and studied in recent literature, the one derived here is a function of the content of the first buffer. We prove that when the first buffer is finite, this method yields asymptotically efficient simulation for any set of arrival and service rates. In fact, the relative error is bounded independent of the level L; a new result which is not established for any other known method. When the first buffer is infinite, we propose a natural extension of the exponential change of measure for the finite buffer case. In this case, the relative error is shown to be bounded (independent of L) only when the second server is the bottleneck; a result which is known to hold for some other methods derived through large deviations analysis. When the first server is the bottleneck, experimental results using our method seem to suggest that the relative error is bounded linearly in L.

A portable load cell for in-situ ore impact breakage testing

This paper discusses the design and characterisation of a short, and hence portable impact load cell for in-situ quantification of ore breakage properties under impact loading conditions. Much literature has been published in the past two decades about impact load cells for ore breakage testing. It has been conclusively shown that such machines yield significant quantitative energy-fragmentation information about industrial ores. However, documented load cells are all laboratory systems that are not adapted for in-situ testing due to their dimensions and operating requirements. The authors report on a new portable impact load cell designed specifically for in-situ testing. The load cell is 1.5 m in height and weighs 30 kg. Its physical and operating characteristics are detailed in the paper. This includes physical dimensions, calibration and signal deconvolution. Emphasis is placed on the deconvolution issue, which is significant for such a short load cell. Finally, it is conclusively shown that the short load cell is quantitatively as accurate as its larger laboratory analogues. (C) 2062 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Geographical variation in the penetrance of CDKN2A mutations for melanoma

Background: Germline mutations in the CDKN2A gene, which encodes two proteins (p16INK4A and p14ARF), are the most common cause of inherited susceptibility to melanoma. We examined the penetrance of such mutations using data from eight groups from Europe, Australia and the United States that are part of The Melanoma Genetics Consortium Methods: We analyzed 80 families with documented CDKN2A mutations and multiple cases of cutaneous melanoma. We modeled penetrance for melanoma using a logistic regression model incorporating survival analysis. Hypothesis testing was based on likelihood ratio tests. Covariates included gender, alterations in p14APF protein, and population melanoma incidence rates. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The 80 analyzed families contained 402 melanoma patients, 320 of whom were tested for mutations and 291 were mutation carriers. We also tested 713 unaffected family members for mutations and 194 were carriers. Overall, CDKN2A mutation penetrance was estimated to be 0.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12 to 0.62) by age 50 years and 0.67 (95% CI = 0.31 to 0.96) by age 80 years. Penetrance was not statistically significantly modified by gender or by whether the CDKN2A mutation altered p14ARF protein. However, there was a statistically significant effect of residing in a location with a high population incidence rate of melanoma (P = .003). By age 50 years CDKN2A mutation penetrance reached 0.13 in Europe, 0.50 in the United States, and 0.32 in Australia; by age 80 years it was 0.58 in Europe, 0.76 in the United States, and 0.91 in Australia. Conclusions: This study, which gives the most informed estimates of CDKN2A mutation penetrance available, indicates that the penetrance varies with melanoma population incidence rates. Thus, the same factors that affect population incidence of melanoma may also mediate CDKN2A penetrance.

Testing the beneficial acclimation hypothesis

Recent developments in evolutionary physiology have seen many of the long-held assumptions within comparative physiology receive rigorous experimental analysis. Studies of the adaptive significance of physiological acclimation exemplify this new evolutionary approach. The beneficial acclimation hypothesis (BAH) was proposed to describe the assumption that all acclimation changes enhance the physiological performance or fitness of an individual organism. To the surprise of most physiologists, all empirical examinations of the BAH have rejected its generality. However, we suggest that these examinations are neither direct nor complete tests of the functional benefit of acclimation. We consider them to be elegant analyses of the adaptive significance of developmental plasticity, a type of phenotypic plasticity that is very different from the traditional concept of acclimation that is used by comparative physiologists.

Design, development, and testing of X-band amplifying reflectarrays

The design and development of two X-band amplifying reflectarrays is presented. The arrays use dual-polarized aperture coupled patch antennas with FET transistors and phasing circuits to amplify a microwave signal and to radiate it in a chosen direction. Two cases are considered, one when a reflectarray converts a spherical wave due to a feed horn into a plane wave radiated into a boresight direction, and two, when the reflectarray converts a spherical wave due to a dual-polarized four-element feed array into a co-focal spherical wave. This amplified signal is received in an orthogonal port of the feed array so that the entire structure acts as a spatial power combiner. The two amplifying arrays are tested in the near-field zone for phase distribution over their apertures to achieve the required beam formation. Alternatively, their radiation patterns or gains are investigated.

Control of chaotic instability in a dual-spin spacecraft with dissipation using energy methods

Control of chaotic instability in a rotating multibody system in the form of a dual-spin spacecraft with an axial nutational damper is achieved using an algorithm derived using energy methods. The control method is implemented on two realistic spacecraft parameter configurations which have been found to exhibit chaotic instability when a sinusoidally varying torque is applied to the spacecraft for a range of forcing amplitudes and frequencies. Such a torque, in practice, may arise under malfunction of the control system or from an unbalanced rotor. Chaotic instabilities arising from these torques could introduce uncertainties and irregularities into a spacecraft's attitude and consequently impair pointing accuracy. The control method is formulated from nutational stability results derived using an energy sink approximation for a dual-spin spacecraft with an asymmetric platform and axisymmetric rotor. The effectiveness of the control method is shown numerically and the results are studied by means of time history, phase space, Poincare map, Lyapunov characteristic exponents and Bifurcation diagrams.

Determinants of tissue Doppler measures of regional diastolic function during dobutamine stress echocardiography

Background Diastolic dysfunction induced by ischemia may alter transmitral blood flow, but this reflects global ventricular function, and pseudonormalization may occur with increased preload. Tissue Doppler may assess regional diastolic function and is relatively load-independent, but limited data exist regarding its application to stress testing. We sought to examine the stress response of regional diastolic parameters to dobutomine echocardiography (DbE). Methods Sixty-three patients underwent study with DbE: 20 with low probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 43 with CAD who underwent angiography. A standard DbE protocol was used, and segments were categorized as ischemic, scar, or normal. Color tissue Doppler was acquired at baseline and peak stress, and waveforms in the basal and mid segments were used to measure early filling (Em), late filling (Am), and E deceleration time. Significant CAD was defined by stenoses >50% vessel diameter. Results Diastolic parameters had limited feasibility because of merging of Em and Am waves at high heart rates and limited reproducibility. Nonetheless, compared with normal segments, segments subtended with significant stenoses showed a lower Em velocity at rest (6.2 +/- 2.6 cm/s vs 4.8 +/- 2.2 cm/s, P < .0001) and peak (7.5 +/- 4.2 cm/s vs 5.1 +/- 3.6 cm/s, P < .0001), Abnormal segments also showed a shorter E deceleration time (51 +/- 27 ms vs 41 +/- 27 ms, P = .0001) at base and peak. No changes were documented in Am. The same pattern was seen with segments identified as ischemic with wall motion score. However, in the absence of ischemia, segments of patients with left ventricular hypertrophy showed a lower Em velocity, with blunted Em responses to stress. Conclusion Regional diastolic function is sensitive to ischemia. However, a number of practical limitations limit the applicability of diastolic parameters for the quantification of stress echocardiography.

Use of stress echocardiography to predict mortality in patients with diabetes and known or suspected coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVE - This study sought to determine whether stress echocardiography using exercise (when feasible) or dobutamine echo could be used to predict mortality in patients with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Stress echo was performed in 937 patients with diabetes (aged 59 +/- 13 years, 529 men) for symptom evaluation (42%) and follow-up of known coronary artery disease (CAD) (58%). Stress echocardiography using exercise was performed in 333 patients able to exercise maximally, and dobutamine echo using a standard dobutamine stress was used in 604 patients. Patients were followed for less than or equal to9 years (mean 3.9 +/- 2.3) for all-cause mortality. RESULTS - Normal studies were obtained in 567 (60%) patients; 29% had resting left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, and 25% had ischemia. Abnormalities were confined to one territory in 183 (20%) patients and to multiple territories in 187 (20%) patients. Death (in 275 [29%] patients) was predicted by referral for pharmacologic stress (hazard ratio [HR] 3.94, P < 0.0001), ischemia (1.77, P <0.0001), age (1.02, P = 0.002), and heart failure (1.54, P = 0.01). The risk of death in patients With a normal scan was 4% per year, and this was associated with age and selection for pharmacologic stress testing. In stepwise models replicating the sequence of clinical evaluation, the predictive power of independent clinical predictors (age, selection for pharmacologic stress, previous infarction, and heart failure; model chi(2) = 104.8) was significantly enhanced by addition of stress echo data (model chi(2) = 122.9). CONCLUSIONS - The results of stress echo are independent predictors of death in diabetic patients with known or suspected CAD.. Ischemia adds risk that is incremental to clinical risks and LV dysfunction.

Improvements to peroxide oxidation methods for analysing sulfur in acid sulfate soils

Improvements to peroxide oxidation methods for analysing acid sulfate soils (ASS) are introduced. The soil solution ratio has been increased to 1 : 40, titrations are performed in suspension, and the duration of the peroxide digest stage is substantially shortened. For 9 acid sulfate soils, the peroxide oxidisable sulfur value obtained using the improved method was compared with the reduced inorganic sulfur result obtained using the chromium reducible sulfur method. Their regression was highly significant, the slope of the regression line was not significantly different (P = 0.05) from unity, and the intercept not significantly different from zero. A complete sulfur budget for the improved method showed there was no loss of sulfur as has been reported for earlier peroxide oxidation techniques. When soils were very finely ground, efficient oxidation of sulfides was achieved, despite the milder digestion conditions. Highly sulfidic and organic soils were shown to be the most difficult to analyse using either the improved method or the chromium method. No single analytical method can be universally applied to all ASS, rather a suite of methods is necessary for a thorough understanding of many ASS. The improved peroxide method, in combination with the chromium method and the 4 M HCl extraction, form a sound platform for informed decision making on the management of acid sulfate soils.