Predicting magnetospheric dynamics with a coupled sun-to-Earth model: challenges and first results

Results from the first Sun-to-Earth coupled numerical model developed at the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling are presented. The model simulates physical processes occurring in space spanning from the corona of the Sun to the Earth's ionosphere, and it represents the first step toward creating a physics-based numerical tool for predicting space weather conditions in the near-Earth environment. Two 6- to 7-d intervals, representing different heliospheric conditions in terms of the three-dimensional configuration of the heliospheric current sheet, are chosen for simulations. These conditions lead to drastically different responses of the simulated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, emphasizing, on the one hand, challenges one encounters in building such forecasting tools, and on the other hand, emphasizing successes that can already be achieved even at this initial stage of Sun-to-Earth modeling.

Dynamics of QoI sensitivity in Mycosphaerella fijiensis in Costa Rica during 2000 to 2003

From 1997 onward, the strobilurin fungicide azoxystrobin was widely used in the main banana-production zone in Costa Rica against Mycosphaerella fijiensis var. difformis causing black Sigatoka of banana. By 2000, isolates of M. fijiensis with resistance to the quinolene oxidase inhibitor fungicides were common on some farms in the area. The cause was a single point mutation from glycine to alanine in the fungal target protein, cytochrome b gene. An amplification refractory mutation system Scorpion quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay was developed and used to determine the frequency of G 143A allele in samples of M. fijiensis. Two hierarchical surveys of spatial variability, in 2001 and 2002,found no significant variation in frequency on spatial scales <10 in. This allowed the frequency of G143A alleles on a farm to be estimated efficiently by averaging single samples taken at two fixed locations. The frequency of G 143A allele in bulk samples from I I farms throughout Costa Rica was determined at 2-month intervals. There was no direct relationship between the number of spray applications and the frequency of G143A on individual farms. Instead, the frequency converged toward regional averages, presumably due to the large-scale mixing of ascospores dispersed by wind. Using trap plants in an area remote from the main producing area, immigration of resistant ascospores was detected as far as 6 km away both with and against the prevailing wind.

Requirements analysis for an e-government system to support multi-organisational collaborative groups

We present a conceptual architecture for a Group Support System (GSS) to facilitate Multi-Organisational Collaborative Groups (MOCGs) initiated by local government and including external organisations of various types. Multi-Organisational Collaborative Groups (MOCGs) consist of individuals from several organisations which have agreed to work together to solve a problem. The expectation is that more can be achieved working in harmony than separately. Work is done interdependently, rather than independently in diverse directions. Local government, faced with solving complex social problems, deploy MOCGs to enable solutions across organisational, functional, professional and juridical boundaries, by involving statutory, voluntary, community, not-for-profit and private organisations. This is not a silver bullet as it introduces new pressures. Each member organisation has its own goals, operating context and particular approaches, which can be expressed as their norms and business processes. Organisations working together must find ways of eliminating differences or mitigating their impact in order to reduce the risks of collaborative inertia and conflict. A GSS is an electronic collaboration system that facilitates group working and can offer assistance to MOCGs. Since many existing GSSs have been primarily developed for single organisation collaborative groups, even though there are some common issues, there are some difficulties peculiar to MOCGs, and others that they experience to a greater extent: a diversity of primary organisational goals among members; different funding models and other pressures; more significant differences in other information systems both technologically and in their use than single organisations; greater variation in acceptable approaches to solve problems. In this paper, we analyse the requirements of MOCGs led by local government agencies, leading to a conceptual architecture for an e-government GSS that captures the relationships between 'goal', 'context', 'norm', and 'business process'. Our models capture the dynamics of the circumstances surrounding each individual representing an organisation in a MOCG along with the dynamics of the MOCG itself as a separate community.

Subspace system identification framework for the analysis of multimoded propagation of THz-transient signals

We provide a system identification framework for the analysis of THz-transient data. The subspace identification algorithm for both deterministic and stochastic systems is used to model the time-domain responses of structures under broadband excitation. Structures with additional time delays can be modelled within the state-space framework using additional state variables. We compare the numerical stability of the commonly used least-squares ARX models to that of the subspace N4SID algorithm by using examples of fourth-order and eighth-order systems under pulse and chirp excitation conditions. These models correspond to structures having two and four modes simultaneously propagating respectively. We show that chirp excitation combined with the subspace identification algorithm can provide a better identification of the underlying mode dynamics than the ARX model does as the complexity of the system increases. The use of an identified state-space model for mode demixing, upon transformation to a decoupled realization form is illustrated. Applications of state-space models and the N4SID algorithm to THz transient spectroscopy as well as to optical systems are highlighted.

Linking the coevolutionary and population dynamics of host-parasitoid interactions

The interplay between coevolutionary and population or community dynamics is currently the focus of much empirical and theoretical consideration. Here, we develop a simulation model to study the coevolutionary and population dynamics of a hypothetical host-parasitoid interaction. In the model, host resistance and parasitoid virulence are allowed to coevolve. We investigate how trade-offs associated with these traits modify the system's coevolutionary and population dynamics. The most important influence on these dynamics comes from the incorporation of density-dependent costs of resistance ability. We find three main outcomes. First, if the costs of resistance are high, then one or both of the players go extinct. Second, when the costs of resistance are intermediate to low, cycling population and coevolutionary dynamics are found, with slower evolutionary changes observed when the costs of virulence are also low. Third, when the costs associated with resistance and virulence are both high, the hosts trade-off resistance against fecundity and invest little in resistance. However, the parasitoids continue to invest in virulence, leading to stable host and parasitoid population sizes. These results support the hypothesis that costs associated with resistance and virulence will maintain the heritable variation in these traits found in natural populations and that the nature of these trade-offs will greatly influence the population dynamics of the interacting species.

Infrared filters and coatings for the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (6-18µm)

This paper describes the spectral design and manufacture of the narrow bandpass filters and 6-18µm broadband antireflection coatings for the 21-channel NASA EOS-AURA High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS). A method of combining the measured spectral characteristics of each filter and antireflection coating, together with the spectral response of the other optical elements in the instrument to obtain a predicted system throughput response is presented. The design methods used to define the filter and coating spectral requirements, choice of filter materials, multilayer designs and deposition techniques are discussed.

Studying reactive processes with classical dynamics: rebinding dynamics in MbNO

A new surface-crossing algorithm suitable for describing bond-breaking and bond-forming processes in molecular dynamics simulations is presented. The method is formulated for two intersecting potential energy manifolds which dissociate to different adiabatic states. During simulations, crossings are detected by monitoring an energy criterion. If fulfilled, the two manifolds are mixed over a finite number of time steps, after which the system is propagated on the second adiabat and the crossing is carried out with probability one. The algorithm is extensively tested (almost 0.5 mu s of total simulation time) for the rebinding of NO to myoglobin. The unbound surface ((FeNO)-N-...) is represented using a standard force field, whereas the bound surface (Fe-NO) is described by an ab initio potential energy surface. The rebinding is found to be nonexponential in time, in agreement with experimental studies, and can be described using two time constants. Depending on the asymptotic energy separation between the manifolds, the short rebinding timescale is between 1 and 9 ps, whereas the longer timescale is about an order of magnitude larger. NO molecules which do not rebind within 1 ns are typically found in the Xenon-4 pocket, indicating the high affinity of NO to this region in the protein.

A spectral performance model for the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (6-18µm)

A spectral performance model, designed to simulate the system spectral throughput for each of the 21 channels in the HIRDLS radiometer, is described. This model uses the measured spectral characteristics of each of the components in the optical train, appropriately corrected for their optical environment, to determine the end-to-end spectral throughput profile for each channel. This profile is then combined with the predicted thermal emission from the atmosphere, arising from the height of interest, to establish an in-band (wanted) to out-of-band (unwanted) radiance ratio. The results from the use of the model demonstrate that the instrument level radiometric requirements for the instrument will be achieved. The optical arrangement and spectral design requirements for filtering in the HIRDLS instrument are described together with a presentation of the performance achieved for the complete set of manufactured filters. Compliance of the predicted passband throughput model to the spectral positioning requi rements of the instrument is also demonstrated.

A new modelling framework for statistical cumulus dynamics

We propose a new modelling framework suitable for the description of atmospheric convective systems as a collection of distinct plumes. The literature contains many examples of models for collections of plumes in which strong simplifying assumptions are made, a diagnostic dependence of convection on the large-scale environment and the limit of many plumes often being imposed from the outset. Some recent studies have sought to remove one or the other of those assumptions. The proposed framework removes both, and is explicitly time-dependent and stochastic in its basic character. The statistical dynamics of the plume collection are defined through simple probabilistic rules applied at the level of individual plumes, and van Kampen's system size expansion is then used to construct the macroscopic limit of the microscopic model. Through suitable choices of the microscopic rules, the model is shown to encompass previous studies in the appropriate limits, and to allow their natural extensions beyond those limits.

Efficient non-linear data assimilation in geophysical fluid dynamics

New ways of combining observations with numerical models are discussed in which the size of the state space can be very large, and the model can be highly nonlinear. Also the observations of the system can be related to the model variables in highly nonlinear ways, making this data-assimilation (or inverse) problem highly nonlinear. First we discuss the connection between data assimilation and inverse problems, including regularization. We explore the choice of proposal density in a Particle Filter and show how the ’curse of dimensionality’ might be beaten. In the standard Particle Filter ensembles of model runs are propagated forward in time until observations are encountered, rendering it a pure Monte-Carlo method. In large-dimensional systems this is very inefficient and very large numbers of model runs are needed to solve the data-assimilation problem realistically. In our approach we steer all model runs towards the observations resulting in a much more efficient method. By further ’ensuring almost equal weight’ we avoid performing model runs that are useless in the end. Results are shown for the 40 and 1000 dimensional Lorenz 1995 model.

Identifying barriers and opportunities for transitions towards more sustainable agriculture through system analysis: the case of Vereda La Hoya, Colombia

The paper presents the results of studies which investigated farmers’ reasoning and behaviour with regards to the mis‐use of personal protective equipment and pesticide among smallholders in Colombia. First, the research approach is described. In particular, the structured mental models approach and the integrative agent‐centred framework are presented. These approaches permit to understand the farmers’ reasoning and behaviour in a system perspective. Second, the results are summarized. The methods adopted allowed not only for identifying the factors, but also the social dynamics influencing farmers. Finally, suggestions for interventions are provided, which are not limited to a technical fix, but address the underlying social causes of the problem.

Modelling phosphorus dynamics in multi-branch river systems: A study of the Black River, Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada

High rates of nutrient loading from agricultural and urban development have resulted in surface water eutrophication and groundwater contamination in regions of Ontario. In Lake Simcoe (Ontario, Canada), anthropogenic nutrient contributions have contributed to increased algal growth, low hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations, and impaired fish reproduction. An ambitious programme has been initiated to reduce phosphorus loads to the lake, aiming to achieve at least a 40% reduction in phosphorus loads by 2045. Achievement of this target necessitates effective remediation strategies, which will rely upon an improved understanding of controls on nutrient export from tributaries of Lake Simcoe as well as improved understanding of the importance of phosphorus cycling within the lake. In this paper, we describe a new model structure for the integrated dynamic and process-based model INCA-P, which allows fully-distributed applications, suited to branched river networks. We demonstrate application of this model to the Black River, a tributary of Lake Simcoe, and use INCA-P to simulate the fluxes of P entering the lake system, apportion phosphorus among different sources in the catchment, and explore future scenarios of land-use change and nutrient management to identify high priority sites for implementation of watershed best management practises.

The dynamics of asset prices and transaction activity in illiquid markets: the case of private commercial real estate

This paper investigates the relationship between capital flows, turnover and returns for the UK private real estate market. We examine a number of possible implication of capital flows and turnover on capital returns testing for evidence of a price pressure effect, ‘return chasing’ behaviour and information revelation. The main tool of analysis is a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which institutional capital flows, turnover and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation system in which we also control for macro-economic variables. Data on flows, turnover and returns are obtained for the 10 market segments covering the main UK commercial real estate sectors. Our results do not support the widely-held belief among practitioners that capital flows have a ‘price pressure’ effect. Although there is some evidence of return chasing behaviour, the short timescales involved suggest this finding may be due to delayed recording of flows relative to returns given the difficulties of market entry. We find a significant positive relationship between lagged turnover and contemporaneous capital returns, suggesting that asset turnover provides pricing information.

Symmetry breaking, mixing, instability, and low frequency variability in a minimal Lorenz-like system

Starting from the classical Saltzman two-dimensional convection equations, we derive via a severe spectral truncation a minimal 10 ODE system which includes the thermal effect of viscous dissipation. Neglecting this process leads to a dynamical system which includes a decoupled generalized Lorenz system. The consideration of this process breaks an important symmetry and couples the dynamics of fast and slow variables, with the ensuing modifications to the structural properties of the attractor and of the spectral features. When the relevant nondimensional number (Eckert number Ec) is different from zero, an additional time scale of O(Ec−1) is introduced in the system, as shown with standard multiscale analysis and made clear by several numerical evidences. Moreover, the system is ergodic and hyperbolic, the slow variables feature long-term memory with 1/f3/2 power spectra, and the fast variables feature amplitude modulation. Increasing the strength of the thermal-viscous feedback has a stabilizing effect, as both the metric entropy and the Kaplan-Yorke attractor dimension decrease monotonically with Ec. The analyzed system features very rich dynamics: it overcomes some of the limitations of the Lorenz system and might have prototypical value in relevant processes in complex systems dynamics, such as the interaction between slow and fast variables, the presence of long-term memory, and the associated extreme value statistics. This analysis shows how neglecting the coupling of slow and fast variables only on the basis of scale analysis can be catastrophic. In fact, this leads to spurious invariances that affect essential dynamical properties (ergodicity, hyperbolicity) and that cause the model losing ability in describing intrinsically multiscale processes.

New results on the thermodynamical properties of the climate system

In this paper the authors exploit two equivalent formulations of the average rate of material entropy production in the climate system to propose an approximate splitting between contributions due to vertical and eminently horizontal processes. This approach is based only on 2D radiative fields at the surface and at the top of atmosphere. Using 2D fields at the top of atmosphere alone, lower bounds to the rate of material entropy production and to the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle are derived. By introducing a measure of the efficiency of the planetary system with respect to horizontal thermodynamic processes, it is possible to gain insight into a previous intuition on the possibility of defining a baroclinic heat engine extracting work from the meridional heat flux. The approximate formula of the material entropy production is verified and used for studying the global thermodynamic properties of climate models (CMs) included in the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)/phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset in preindustrial climate conditions. It is found that about 90% of the material entropy production is due to vertical processes such as convection, whereas the large-scale meridional heat transport contributes to only about 10% of the total. This suggests that the traditional two-box models used for providing a minimal representation of entropy production in planetary systems are not appropriate, whereas a basic—but conceptually correct—description can be framed in terms of a four-box model. The total material entropy production is typically 55 mW m−2 K−1, with discrepancies on the order of 5%, and CMs’ baroclinic efficiencies are clustered around 0.055. The lower bounds on the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle featured by CMs are found to be around 1.0–1.5 W m−2, which implies that the derived inequality is rather stringent. When looking at the variability and covariability of the considered thermodynamic quantities, the agreement among CMs is worse, suggesting that the description of feedbacks is more uncertain. The contributions to material entropy production from vertical and horizontal processes are positively correlated, so that no compensation mechanism seems in place. Quite consistently among CMs, the variability of the efficiency of the system is a better proxy for variability of the entropy production due to horizontal processes than that of the large-scale heat flux. The possibility of providing constraints on the 3D dynamics of the fluid envelope based only on 2D observations of radiative fluxes seems promising for the observational study of planets and for testing numerical models.