The stochastic component in choice and regression to the mean

In this article, we illustrate experimentally an important consequence of the stochastic component in choice behaviour which has not been acknowledged so far. Namely, its potential to produce ‘regression to the mean’ (RTM) effects. We employ a novel approach to individual choice under risk, based on repeated multiple-lottery choices (i.e. choices among many lotteries), to show how the high degree of stochastic variability present in individual decisions can distort crucially certain results through RTM effects. We demonstrate the point in the context of a social comparison experiment.

Automated determination of auroral breakup during the substorm expansion phase using all sky imager data

This technique paper describes a novel method for quantitatively and routinely identifying auroral breakup following substorm onset using the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions During Substorms (THEMIS) all-sky imagers (ASIs). Substorm onset is characterised by a brightening of the aurora that is followed by auroral poleward expansion and auroral breakup. This breakup can be identified by a sharp increase in the auroral intensity i(t) and the time derivative of auroral intensity i'(t). Utilising both i(t) and i'(t) we have developed an algorithm for identifying the time interval and spatial location of auroral breakup during the substorm expansion phase within the field of view of ASI data based solely on quantifiable characteristics of the optical auroral emissions. We compare the time interval determined by the algorithm to independently identified auroral onset times from three previously published studies. In each case the time interval determined by the algorithm is within error of the onset independently identified by the prior studies. We further show the utility of the algorithm by comparing the breakup intervals determined using the automated algorithm to an independent list of substorm onset times. We demonstrate that up to 50% of the breakup intervals characterised by the algorithm are within the uncertainty of the times identified in the independent list. The quantitative description and routine identification of an interval of auroral brightening during the substorm expansion phase provides a foundation for unbiased statistical analysis of the aurora to probe the physics of the auroral substorm as a new scientific tool for aiding the identification of the processes leading to auroral substorm onset.

Survival at the frontier of Holy War: political expansion, crusading, commerce and the medieval colonizing settlement at Biała Gora, North Poland

Between the eleventh and thirteenth centuries AD, the Lower Vistula valley represented a permeable and shifting frontier between Pomerelia (eastern Pomerania), which had been incorporated into the Polish Christian state by the end of the tenth century, and the territories of western Prussian tribes, who had resisted attempts at Christianization. Pomeranian colonization eventually began to falter in the latter decades of the twelfth and early thirteenth centuries, most likely as a result of Prussian incursions, which saw the abandonment of sites across the borderland. Subsequently, the Teutonic Order and its allies led a protracted holy war against the Prussian tribes, which resulted in the conquest of the region and its incorporation into a theocratic state by the end of the thirteenth century. This was accompanied by a second wave of colonization, which resulted in the settlement pattern that is still visible in the landscape of north-central Poland today. However, not all colonies were destroyed or abandoned in between the two phases of colonization. The recently excavated site of Biała Góra, situated on the western side of the Forest of Sztum overlooking the River Nogat, represents a unique example of a transitional settlement that included both Pomeranian and Teutonic Order phases. The aim of this paper is to situate the site within its broader landscape context which can be characterized as a militarized frontier, where, from the later twelfth century and throughout much of the thirteenth century, political and economic expansion was combined with the ideology of Christian holy war and missionary activity. This paper considers how the colonists provisioned and sustained themselves in comparison to other sites within the region, and how Biała Góra may be tentatively linked to a documented but otherwise lost outpost in this volatile borderland.

Landscape change in central Latvia since the Iron Age: multi-proxy analysis of the vegetation impact of conflict, colonization and economic expansion during the last 2000 years

This study represents the first detailed multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation associated with a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling site in the eastern Baltic. The main objective was to reconstruct the environmental and vegetation dynamics associated with the establishment of the lake-dwelling and land-use during the last 2,000 years. A lacustrine sediment core located adjacent to a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling, medieval castle and Post-medieval manor was sampled in Lake Āraiši. The core was dated using spheroidal fly-ash particles and radiocarbon dating, and analysed in terms of pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, diatoms, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and element geochemistry. Associations between pollen and other proxies were statistically tested. During ad 1–700, the vicinity of Lake Āraiši was covered by forests and human activities were only small-scale with the first appearance of cereal pollen (Triticum and Secale cereale) after ad 400. The most significant changes in vegetation and environment occurred with the establishment of the lake-dwelling around ad 780 when the immediate surroundings of the lake were cleared for agriculture, and within the lake there were increased nutrient levels. The highest accumulation rates of coprophilous fungi coincide with the occupation of the lake-dwelling from ad 780–1050, indicating that parts of the dwelling functioned as byres for livestock. The conquest of tribal lands during the crusades resulted in changes to the ownership, administration and organisation of the land, but our results indicate that the form and type of agriculture and land-use continued much as it had during the preceding Late Iron Age.

Expansion quality of epidemic protocols

Epidemic protocols are a bio-inspired communication and computation paradigm for large and extreme-scale networked systems. This work investigates the expansion property of the network overlay topologies induced by epidemic protocols. An expansion quality index for overlay topologies is proposed and adopted for the design of epidemic membership protocols. A novel protocol is proposed, which explicitly aims at improving the expansion quality of the overlay topologies. The proposed protocol is tested with a global aggregation task and compared to other membership protocols. The analysis by means of simulations indicates that the expansion quality directly relates to the speed of dissemination and convergence of epidemic protocols and can be effectively used to design better protocols.

Clonal expansion of early to mid-life mitochondrial DNA point mutations drives mitochondrial dysfunction during human ageing

Age-related decline in the integrity of mitochondria is an important contributor to the human ageing process. In a number of ageing stem cell populations, this decline in mitochondrial function is due to clonal expansion of individual mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) point mutations within single cells. However the dynamics of this process and when these mtDNA mutations occur initially are poorly understood. Using human colorectal epithelium as an exemplar tissue with a well-defined stem cell population, we analysed samples from 207 healthy participants aged 17-78 years using a combination of techniques (Random Mutation Capture, Next Generation Sequencing and mitochondrial enzyme histochemistry), and show that: 1) non-pathogenic mtDNA mutations are present from early embryogenesis or may be transmitted through the germline, whereas pathogenic mtDNA mutations are detected in the somatic cells, providing evidence for purifying selection in humans, 2) pathogenic mtDNA mutations are present from early adulthood (<20 years of age), at both low levels and as clonal expansions, 3) low level mtDNA mutation frequency does not change significantly with age, suggesting that mtDNA mutation rate does not increase significantly with age, and 4) clonally expanded mtDNA mutations increase dramatically with age. These data confirm that clonal expansion of mtDNA mutations, some of which are generated very early in life, is the major driving force behind the mitochondrial dysfunction associated with ageing of the human colorectal epithelium.

Climate models without pre-industrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin-up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global-mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last ∼ 150 years is consequently underestimated by 5–30 mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50 mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias.

Stochastic climate theory and modeling

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as subgrid-scale parameterizations (SSPs) as well as for model error representation, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation, and ensemble prediction. The need to use stochastic approaches in weather and climate models arises because we still cannot resolve all necessary processes and scales in comprehensive numerical weather and climate prediction models. In many practical applications one is mainly interested in the largest and potentially predictable scales and not necessarily in the small and fast scales. For instance, reduced order models can simulate and predict large-scale modes. Statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory suggest that in reduced order models the impact of unresolved degrees of freedom can be represented by suitable combinations of deterministic and stochastic components and non-Markovian (memory) terms. Stochastic approaches in numerical weather and climate prediction models also lead to the reduction of model biases. Hence, there is a clear need for systematic stochastic approaches in weather and climate modeling. In this review, we present evidence for stochastic effects in laboratory experiments. Then we provide an overview of stochastic climate theory from an applied mathematics perspective. We also survey the current use of stochastic methods in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models and show that stochastic parameterizations have the potential to remedy many of the current biases in these comprehensive models.

Low-energy ion outflows from the ionosphere during a major polar cap expansion — evidence for equatorward motion of inverted-V structures

Data from the Dynamics Explorer 1 satellite and the EISCAT and Sondrestrom incoherent scatter radars, have allowed a study of low-energy ion outflows from the ionosphere into the magnetosphere during a rapid expansion of the polar cap. From the combined radar data, a 200kV increase in cross-cap potential is estimated. The upflowing ions show “X” signatures in the pitch angle-time spectrograms in the expanding midnight sector of the auroral oval. These signatures reveal low-energy (below about 60eV), light-ion beams sandwiched between two regions of ion conics and are associated with inverted-V electron precipitation. The lack of mass dispersion of the poleward edge of the event, despite great differences in the times of flight, reflects the equatorward expansion of the acceleration regions at velocities similar to those of the antisunward convection. In addition, a transient burst of upflow of 0+ is observed within the cap, possibly due to enhanced Joule heating during the event.

RE1 silencing transcription factor/neuron-restrictive silencing factor regulates expansion of adult mouse subventricular zone-derived neural stem/progenitor cells in vitro

Adult neural stem cell (aNSC) activity is tuned by external stimuli through the recruitment of transcription factors. This study examines the RE1 silencing transcription factor (REST) in neural stem/progenitor cells isolated from the subventricular zone of adult mouse brain and provides the first extensive characterization of REST-mediated control of the cellular and molecular properties. This study shows that REST knockdown affects the capacity of progenitor cells to generate neurospheres, reduces cell proliferation, and triggers cell differentiation despite the presence of growth factors. Genome- and transcriptome-wide analyses show that REST binding sites are significantly enriched in genes associated with synaptic transmission and nervous system development and function. Seeking candidate regulators of aNSC function, this study identifies a member of the bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) family, BMP6, the mRNA and protein of which increased after REST knockdown. The results of this study extend previous findings, demonstrating a reciprocal control of REST expression by BMPs. Administration of exogenous BMP6 inhibits aNSC proliferation and induces the expression of the astrocytic marker glial fibrillary acidic protein, highlighting its antimitogenic and prodifferentiative effects. This study suggests that BMP6 produced in a REST-regulated manner together with other signals can contribute to regulation of NSC maintenance and fate. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Advances in the stochastic modelling of satellite-derived rainfall estimates using a sparse calibration dataset

As satellite technology develops, satellite rainfall estimates are likely to become ever more important in the world of food security. It is therefore vital to be able to identify the uncertainty of such estimates and for end users to be able to use this information in a meaningful way. This paper presents new developments in the methodology of simulating satellite rainfall ensembles from thermal infrared satellite data. Although the basic sequential simulation methodology has been developed in previous studies, it was not suitable for use in regions with more complex terrain and limited calibration data. Developments in this work include the creation of a multithreshold, multizone calibration procedure, plus investigations into the causes of an overestimation of low rainfall amounts and the best way to take into account clustered calibration data. A case study of the Ethiopian highlands has been used as an illustration.

Determination of the embedded thermo-optical expansion coefficients of PbTe and ZnSe thin film infrared multilayers

This paper reports the first derived thermo-optical properties for vacuum deposited infrared thin films embedded in multilayers. These properties were extracted from the temperature-dependence of manufactured narrow bandpass filters across the 4-17 µm mid-infrared wavelength region. Using a repository of spaceflight multi-cavity bandpass filters, the thermo-optical expansion coefficients of PbTe and ZnSe were determined across an elevated temperature range 20-160 ºC. Embedded ZnSe films showed thermo-optical properties similar to reported bulk values, whilst the embedded PbTe films of lower optical density, deviate from reference literature sources. Detailed knowledge of derived coefficients is essential to the multilayer design of temperature-invariant narrow bandpass filters for use in non-cooled infrared detection systems. We further present manufacture of the first reported temperature-invariant multi-cavity narrow bandpass filter utilizing PbS chalcogenide layer material.

FTO influences adipogenesis by regulating mitotic clonal expansion

The fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene plays a pivotal role in regulating body weight and fat mass; however, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Here we show that primary adipocytes and mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) derived from FTO overexpression (FTO-4) mice exhibit increased potential for adipogenic differentiation, while MEFs derived from FTO knockout (FTO-KO) mice show reduced adipogenesis. As predicted from these findings, fat pads from FTO-4 mice fed a high-fat diet show more numerous adipocytes. FTO influences adipogenesis by regulating events early in adipogenesis, during the process of mitotic clonal expansion. The effect of FTO on adipogenesis appears to be mediated via enhanced expression of the pro-adipogenic short isoform of RUNX1T1, which enhanced adipocyte proliferation, and is increased in FTO-4 MEFs and reduced in FTO-KO MEFs. Our findings provide novel mechanistic insight into how upregulation of FTO leads to obesity.