Are Alaskan trees found in locally more favourable sites in marginal areas?

Aim Species generally become rarer and more patchily distributed as the margins of their ranges are approached. We predicted that in such marginal sites, tree species would tend to occur where some key environmental factors are at particularly favourable levels, compensating in part for the low overall suitability of marginal sites.

Location The article considers the spatial distributions of trees in Southeast Alaska (the Alaskan 'panhandle').

Methods We quantified range marginality using spatial distributions of eight tree species across more than one thousand surveyed sites in Southeast Alaska. For each species we derived a site core/margin index using a three-dimensional trend surface generated from logistic regression on site coordinates. For each species, the relationships between the environmental factors slope, aspect and site marginality were then compared for occupied and unoccupied sets of sites.

Results We found that site slope is important for more Alaskan tree species than aspect. Three out of eight had a significant core/margin by occupied/unoccupied interaction, tending to be present in significantly shallower-sloped (more favourable) sites in the marginal areas than the simple core/margin trend predicted. For site aspect, one species had a significant interaction, selecting potentially more favourable northerly aspects in marginal areas. A finer-scale analysis based on the same data came to the same overall conclusions.

Conclusions There is evidence that several tree species in Alaska tend to occur in especially favourable sites in marginal areas. In these marginal areas, these species amplify habitat preferences shown in core areas.

The geographical structure of British bird distributions:diversity, spatial turnover and scale

1. Using data on the spatial distribution of the British avifauna, we address three basic questions about the spatial structure of assemblages: (i) Is there a relationship between species richness (alpha diversity) and spatial turnover of species (beta diversity)? (ii) Do high richness locations have fewer species in common with neighbouring areas than low richness locations?, and (iii) Are any such relationships contingent on spatial scale (resolution or quadrat area), and do they reflect the operation of a particular kind of species-area relationship (SAR)?

2. For all measures of spatial turnover, we found a negative relationship with species richness. This held across all scales, with the exception of turnover measured as beta (sim).

3. Higher richness areas were found to have more species in common with neighbouring areas.

4. The logarithmic SAR fitted better than the power SAR overall, and fitted significantly better in areas with low richness and high turnover.

5. Spatial patterns of both turnover and richness vary with scale. The finest scale richness pattern (10 km) and the coarse scale richness pattern (90 km) are statistically unrelated. The same is true of the turnover patterns.

6. With coarsening scale, locations of the most species-rich quadrats move north. This observed sensitivity of richness 'hotspot' location to spatial scale has implications for conservation biology, e.g. the location of a reserve selected on the basis of maximum richness may change considerably with reserve size or scale of analysis.

7. Average turnover measured using indices declined with coarsening scale, but the average number of species gained or lost between neighbouring quadrats was essentially scale invariant at 10-13 species, despite mean richness rising from 80 to 146 species (across an 81-fold area increase). We show that this kind of scale invariance is consistent with the logarithmic SAR.

Automated image analysis for experimental investigations of salt water intrusion in coastal aquifers

A novel methodology has been developed to quantify important saltwater intrusion parameters in a sandbox style experiment using image analysis. Existing methods found in the literature are based mainly on visual observations, which are subjective, labour intensive and limits the temporal and spatial resolutions that can be analysed. A robust error analysis was undertaken to determine the optimum methodology to convert image light intensity to concentration. Results showed that defining a relationship on a pixel-wise basis provided the most accurate image to concentration conversion and allowed quantification of the width of mixing zone between the saltwater and freshwater. A large image sample rate was used to investigate the transient dynamics of saltwater intrusion, which rendered analysis by visual observation unsuitable. This paper presents the methodologies developed to minimise human input and promote autonomy, provide high resolution image to concentration conversion and allow the quantification of intrusion parameters under transient conditions.

Statistical Analysis of Small Ellerman Bomb Events

The properties of Ellerman bombs (EBs), small-scale brightenings in the Hα line wings, have proved difficult to establish because their size is close to the spatial resolution of even the most advanced telescopes. Here, we aim to infer the size and lifetime of EBs using high-resolution data of an emerging active region collected using the Interferometric BIdimensional Spectrometer (IBIS) and Rapid Oscillations of the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) instruments as well as the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We develop an algorithm to track EBs through their evolution, finding that EBs can often be much smaller (around 0.3″) and shorter-lived (less than one minute) than previous estimates. A correlation between G-band magnetic bright points and EBs is also found. Combining SDO/HMI and G-band data gives a good proxy of the polarity for the vertical magnetic field. It is found that EBs often occur both over regions of opposite polarity flux and strong unipolar fields, possibly hinting at magnetic reconnection as a driver of these events.The energetics of EB events is found to follow a power-law distribution in the range of a nanoflare (1022-25 ergs).

Spatial and temporal variability of the freshwater reservoir effect (FRE) in lacustrine sediments in a cold climate zone, Northwest Territories (Canada)

Climate variability along the 600 km Tibbitt to Contwyoto Winter Road (TCWR) in central Northwest Territories is poorly understood. With the transportation of goods from Yellowknife to the mines projected to increase significantly as new mines open, it is critical that planners and mine developers have reasonable data on the future viability of the road, as alternative transportation costs (e.g. air transport) are prohibitively high.

The research presented here is part of a paleoclimate study based on the analysis of multiple proxy data derived from freeze cores in lakes along the TCWR.

Using geotechnical and LIDAR spatial monitoring to determine key environmental slope instability thresholds of a Jurassic coastal landslide: Straidkilly Point, Northern Ireland, UK.

The Antrim Coast Road stretching from the seaport of Larne in the East of Northern Ireland to the famous Giant’s Causeway in the North has a well-deserved reputation for being one of the most spectacular roads in Europe (Day, 2006). At various locations along the route, fluid interactions between the problematic geology, Jurassic Lias Clay and Triassic Mudstone overlain by Cretaceous Limestone and Tertiary Basalt, and environmental variables result in frequent instances of slope instability within the vadose zone. During such instances of instability, debris flows and composite mudflows encroach on the carriageway posing a hazard to road users. This paper examines the site investigative, geotechnical and spatial analysis techniques currently being implemented to monitor slope stability for one site at Straidkilly Point, Glenarm, Northern Ireland. An in-depth understanding of the geology was obtained via boreholes, resistivity surveys and laboratory testing. Environmental variables recorded by an on-site weather station were correlated with measured pore water pressure and soil moisture infiltration dynamic data.
Terrestrial LiDAR (TLS) was applied to the slope for the monitoring of failures, with surveys carried out on a bi-monthly basis. TLS monitoring allowed for the generation of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of difference, highlighting areas of recent movement, erosion and deposition. Morphology parameters were generated from the DEMs and include slope, curvature and multiple measures of roughness. Changes in the structure of the slope coupled with morphological parameters are characterised and linked to progressive failures from the temporal monitoring. In addition to TLS monitoring, Aerial LiDARi datasets were used for the spatio-morphological characterisation of the slope on a macro scale. Results from the geotechnical and environmental monitoring were compared with spatial data obtained through Terrestrial and Airborne LiDAR, providing a multi-faceted approach to slope stability characterization, which facilitates more informed management of geotechnical risk by the Northern Ireland Roads Service.

Long working hours and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of published and unpublished data for 603 838 individuals

Background: Long working hours might increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but prospective evidence is scarce, imprecise, and mostly limited to coronary heart disease. We aimed to assess long working hours as a risk factor for incident coronary heart disease and stroke. 

Methods We identified published studies through a systematic review of PubMed and Embase from inception to Aug 20, 2014. We obtained unpublished data for 20 cohort studies from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium and open-access data archives. We used cumulative random-effects meta-analysis to combine effect estimates from published and unpublished data. 

Findings We included 25 studies from 24 cohorts in Europe, the USA, and Australia. The meta-analysis of coronary heart disease comprised data for 603 838 men and women who were free from coronary heart disease at baseline; the meta-analysis of stroke comprised data for 528 908 men and women who were free from stroke at baseline. Follow-up for coronary heart disease was 5·1 million person-years (mean 8·5 years), in which 4768 events were recorded, and for stroke was 3·8 million person-years (mean 7·2 years), in which 1722 events were recorded. In cumulative meta-analysis adjusted for age, sex, and socioeconomic status, compared with standard hours (35-40 h per week), working long hours (≥55 h per week) was associated with an increase in risk of incident coronary heart disease (relative risk [RR] 1·13, 95% CI 1·02-1·26; p=0·02) and incident stroke (1·33, 1·11-1·61; p=0·002). The excess risk of stroke remained unchanged in analyses that addressed reverse causation, multivariable adjustments for other risk factors, and different methods of stroke ascertainment (range of RR estimates 1·30-1·42). We recorded a dose-response association for stroke, with RR estimates of 1·10 (95% CI 0·94-1·28; p=0·24) for 41-48 working hours, 1·27 (1·03-1·56; p=0·03) for 49-54 working hours, and 1·33 (1·11-1·61; p=0·002) for 55 working hours or more per week compared with standard working hours (p_trend<0·0001).

Interpretation Employees who work long hours have a higher risk of stroke than those working standard hours; the association with coronary heart disease is weaker. These findings suggest that more attention should be paid to the management of vascular risk factors in individuals who work long hours. 

Elastodynamic Modeling and Analysis for an Exechon Parallel Kinematic Machine

As a newly invented parallel kinematic machine (PKM), Exechon has attracted intensive attention from both academic and industrial fields due to its conceptual high performance. Nevertheless, the dynamic behaviors of Exechon PKM have not been thoroughly investigated because of its structural and kinematic complexities. To identify the dynamic characteristics of Exechon PKM, an elastodynamic model is proposed with the substructure synthesis technique in this paper. The Exechon PKM is divided into a moving platform subsystem, a fixed base subsystem and three limb subsystems according to its structural features. Differential equations of motion for the limb subsystem are derived through finite element (FE) formulations by modeling the complex limb structure as a spatial beam with corresponding geometric cross sections. Meanwhile, revolute, universal, and spherical joints are simplified into virtual lumped springs associated with equivalent stiffnesses and mass at their geometric centers. Differential equations of motion for the moving platform are derived with Newton's second law after treating the platform as a rigid body due to its comparatively high rigidity. After introducing the deformation compatibility conditions between the platform and the limbs, governing differential equations of motion for Exechon PKM are derived. The solution to characteristic equations leads to natural frequencies and corresponding modal shapes of the PKM at any typical configuration. In order to predict the dynamic behaviors in a quick manner, an algorithm is proposed to numerically compute the distributions of natural frequencies throughout the workspace. Simulation results reveal that the lower natural frequencies are strongly position-dependent and distributed axial-symmetrically due to the structure symmetry of the limbs. At the last stage, a parametric analysis is carried out to identify the effects of structural, dimensional, and stiffness parameters on the system's dynamic characteristics with the purpose of providing useful information for optimal design and performance improvement of the Exechon PKM. The elastodynamic modeling methodology and dynamic analysis procedure can be well extended to other overconstrained PKMs with minor modifications.

The single component geochemical map: Fact or fiction?

Single component geochemical maps are the most basic representation of spatial elemental distributions and commonly used in environmental and exploration geochemistry. However, the compositional nature of geochemical data imposes several limitations on how the data should be presented. The problems relate to the constant sum problem (closure), and the inherently multivariate relative information conveyed by compositional data. Well known is, for instance, the tendency of all heavy metals to show lower values in soils with significant contributions of diluting elements (e.g., the quartz dilution effect); or the contrary effect, apparent enrichment in many elements due to removal of potassium during weathering. The validity of classical single component maps is thus investigated, and reasonable alternatives that honour the compositional character of geochemical concentrations are presented. The first recommended such method relies on knowledge-driven log-ratios, chosen to highlight certain geochemical relations or to filter known artefacts (e.g. dilution with SiO2 or volatiles). This is similar to the classical normalisation approach to a single element. The second approach uses the (so called) log-contrasts, that employ suitable statistical methods (such as classification techniques, regression analysis, principal component analysis, clustering of variables, etc.) to extract potentially interesting geochemical summaries. The caution from this work is that if a compositional approach is not used, it becomes difficult to guarantee that any identified pattern, trend or anomaly is not an artefact of the constant sum constraint. In summary the authors recommend a chain of enquiry that involves searching for the appropriate statistical method that can answer the required geological or geochemical question whilst maintaining the integrity of the compositional nature of the data. The required log-ratio transformations should be applied followed by the chosen statistical method. Interpreting the results may require a closer working relationship between statisticians, data analysts and geochemists.

Anomaly Detection for Data with Spatial Attributes

The problem of detecting spatially-coherent groups of data that exhibit anomalous behavior has started to attract attention due to applications across areas such as epidemic analysis and weather forecasting. Earlier efforts from the data mining community have largely focused on finding outliers, individual data objects that display deviant behavior. Such point-based methods are not easy to extend to find groups of data that exhibit anomalous behavior. Scan Statistics are methods from the statistics community that have considered the problem of identifying regions where data objects exhibit a behavior that is atypical of the general dataset. The spatial scan statistic and methods that build upon it mostly adopt the framework of defining a character for regions (e.g., circular or elliptical) of objects and repeatedly sampling regions of such character followed by applying a statistical test for anomaly detection. In the past decade, there have been efforts from the statistics community to enhance efficiency of scan statstics as well as to enable discovery of arbitrarily shaped anomalous regions. On the other hand, the data mining community has started to look at determining anomalous regions that have behavior divergent from their neighborhood.In this chapter,we survey the space of techniques for detecting anomalous regions on spatial data from across the data mining and statistics communities while outlining connections to well-studied problems in clustering and image segmentation. We analyze the techniques systematically by categorizing them appropriately to provide a structured birds eye view of the work on anomalous region detection;we hope that this would encourage better cross-pollination of ideas across communities to help advance the frontier in anomaly detection.

Sound Art and Spatial Practices: Situating Sound Installation Art Since 1958

This dissertation examines the emergence and development of sound installation art, an under-recognized tradition that has developed between music, architecture, and media art practices since the late 1950s. Unlike many musical works, which are concerned with organizing sounds in time, sound installations organize sounds in space; they thus necessitate new theoretical and analytical models that take into consideration the spatial situated-ness of sound. Existing discourses on “spatial sound” privilege technical descriptions of sound localization. By contrast, this dissertation examines the ways in which concepts of space are socially, culturally, and politically construed, and how spatially-organized sound works reflect and resist these different constructions. Using an interdisciplinary methodology of critical spatial analysis and critical studies in music, this dissertation explores such topics as: conceptions of acoustic space in postwar Western art music, architecture, and media theory; the development of sound installation art in relation to philosophies of everyday life and social space; the historical links between musical performance, conceptual art, and sound sculpture; the body as a site for sound installations; and sonicspatial strategies that confront politics of race and gender. Through these different investigations, this dissertation proposes an “ontopological” model for considering sound: a critical model of analysis and reception that privileges an understanding of sound in relation to ontologies of space and place.

Parallel Time Series Analysis and Income Inequality: A New Approach to Comparative Case Studies

This case study deals with the role of time series analysis in sociology, and its relationship with the wider literature and methodology of comparative case study research. Time series analysis is now well-represented in top-ranked sociology journals, often in the form of ‘pooled time series’ research designs. These studies typically pool multiple countries together into a pooled time series cross-section panel, in order to provide a larger sample for more robust and comprehensive analysis. This approach is well suited to exploring trans-national phenomena, and for elaborating useful macro-level theories specific to social structures, national policies, and long-term historical processes. It is less suited however, to understanding how these global social processes work in different countries. As such, the complexities of individual countries - which often display very different or contradictory dynamics than those suggested in pooled studies – are subsumed. Meanwhile, a robust literature on comparative case-based methods exists in the social sciences, where researchers focus on differences between cases, and the complex ways in which they co-evolve or diverge over time. A good example of this is the inequality literature, where although panel studies suggest a general trend of rising inequality driven by the weakening power of labour, marketisation of welfare, and the rising power of capital, some countries have still managed to remain resilient. This case study takes a closer look at what can be learned by applying the insights of case-based comparative research to the method of time series analysis. Taking international income inequality as its point of departure, it argues that we have much to learn about the viability of different combinations of policy options by examining how they work in different countries over time. By taking representative cases from different welfare systems (liberal, social democratic, corporatist, or antipodean), we can better sharpen our theories of how policies can be more specifically engineered to offset rising inequality. This involves a fundamental realignment of the strategy of time series analysis, grounding it instead in a qualitative appreciation of the historical context of cases, as a basis for comparing effects between different countries.

Is Longer-Distance Migration Slowing? An Analysis of the Annual Record for England and Wales since the 1970s

This paper is prompted by the widespread acceptance that the rates of inter-county and inter-state migration have been falling in the USA and sets itself the task of examining whether this decline in migration intensities is also the case in the UK. It uses annual inter-area migration matrices available for England and Wales since the 1970s by broad age group. The main methodological challenge, arising from changes in the geography of health areas for which the inter-area flows are given, is addressed by adopting the lowest common denominator of 80 areas. Care is also taken to allow for the effect of economic cycles in producing short-term fluctuations on migration rates and to isolate the effect of a sharp rise in rates for 16-24 year olds in the 1990s, which is presumed to be related to the expansion of higher education. The findings suggest that, unlike for the USA, there has not been a substantial decline in the intensity of internal migration between the first two decades of the study period and the second two. If there has been any major decline in the intensity of address changing in England and Wales, it can only be for the within-area moves that this time series does not cover. This latter possibility is examined in a companion paper using a very different data set (Champion and Shuttleworth, 2016).

Are People Changing Address Less? An Analysis of Migration within England and Wales, 1971–2011, by Distance of Move

Expectations of migration and mobility steadily increasing in the longer term, which have a long currency in migration theory and related social science, are at odds with the latest US research showing a marked decline in internal migration rates. This paper reports the results of research that investigates whether England and Wales have experienced any similar change in recent decades. Using the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS) of linked census records, it examines the evidence provided by its 10-year migration indicator, with particular attention to a comparison of the first and latest decades available, 1971-1981 and 2001-2011. This suggests that, as in the USA, there has been a marked reduction in the level of shorter-distance (less than 10km) moving that has involved almost all types of people. In contrast to this and to US experience, however, the propensity of people to make longer-distance address changes between decennial censuses has declined much less, largely corroborating the results of a companion study tracking the annual trend in rates of between-area migration since the 1970s (Champion and Shuttleworth, 2016).

Determinant factors for the use of imposex in TBT pollution monitoring

Os compostos de tributilestanho (TBT) foram utilizados como biocidas em tintas antivegetativas (AV) e amplamente aplicados, durante décadas, de forma a evitar a bioincrustação em superfícies submersas, principalmente em cascos de embarcações. Os seus efeitos deletérios em organismos não-alvo tornaram-se evidentes após o aparecimento de gastrópodes prosobrâquios com imposex – sobreposição de caracteres sexuais masculinos sobre o tracto reprodutivo das fêmeas. Desde então, a expressão do imposex em prosobrânquios tem sido amplamente utilizada como biomarcador da poluição por TBT. Um dos objectivos da presente tese é avaliar se as mais recentes restrições legais na utilização das tintas AV com compostos organoestânicos (OTs) resultaram numa redução da poluição pelos mesmos na costa continental Portuguesa. Para tal, foi levada a cabo a análise da variação temporal do imposex como biomarcador dos níveis ambientais de TBT e a validação de procedimentos, de modo a seguir de forma precisa a evolução da intensidade deste fenómeno ao longo do tempo. O trabalho de investigação teve início no momento em que a ineficácia da legislação anterior (Directiva 89/677/CEE) na redução da poluição por TBT no litoral Português era reportada na literatura e quando estavam já agendados instrumentos decisivos para a diminuição definitiva deste tipo de poluição: o Regulamento (CE) N.º 782/2003 do Parlamento e do Conselho da União Europeia (UE) que bania as tintas AV baseadas em TBT na sua frota a partir de 1 de Julho de 2003; a "Convenção Internacional sobre o Controlo de Sistemas Antivegetativos Nocivos em Navios” (Convenção AFS), adoptada em 2001 pela Organização Marítima Internacional (OMI), que procurava erradicar os OTs da frota mundial até 2008. Os níveis de imposex e as concentrações de OTs nos tecidos de fêmeas de Nucella lapillus foram medidos em 17 locais de amostragem ao longo da costa Portuguesa em 2003, a fim de se avaliarem os impactos do TBT nas populações desta espécie e de se criar uma base de dados para seguir a sua evolução futura. O índice da sequência do vaso deferente (VDSI), o índice do tamanho relativo do pénis (RPSI) e a percentagem de fêmeas afectadas por imposex (%I) foram utilizados na medição da intensidade deste fenómeno em cada local de amostragem e os seus valores variaram entre 0,20-4,04, 0,0- 42,2% e 16,7-100,0%, respectivamente. Foram encontradas fêmeas estéreis em 3 locais de amostragem, com percentagens a variar entre 4,0 e 6,2%. As concentrações de TBT e dibutilestanho (DBT) nas fêmeas variaram respectivamente entre 23-138 e <10-62 ng Sn.g-1 de peso seco, e o conteúdo em TBT nos tecidos revelou-se significativamente correlacionado com o imposex (nomeadamente com o RPSI e o VDSI). Os níveis de expressão do fenómeno e o conteúdo em OTs nos tecidos, foram superiores na proximidade de portos, confirmando as conclusões obtidas anteriormente por outros autores de que os navios e a actividade dos estaleiros são as principais fontes destes compostos no litoral Português. As infra-estruturas associadas ás principais fontes de OTs – portos, estaleiros e marinas – estão geralmente localizadas no interior de estuários, motivo pelo qual estas áreas têm vindo a ser descritas como as mais afectadas por estes poluentes. Por esta razão, foi levado a cabo o estudo pormenorizado da poluição por TBT na Ria de Aveiro, como caso de estudo representativo da poluição por estes compostos num sistema estuarino em Portugal continental. N. lapillus foi usada como bioindicador para avaliar a tendência temporal da poluição por TBT nesta área entre 1997 e 2007. Foi registada uma diminuição da intensidade do imposex após 2003, embora as melhorias mais evidentes tenham sido observadas entre 2005 e 2007, provavelmente devido à implementação do Regulamento (CE) N.º 782/2003 que proibiu a aplicação de tintas AV com TBT em navios com a bandeira da UE. Apesar desses progressos, as análises ao conteúdo em OTs nos tecidos de fêmeas de N. lapillus e em amostras de água colhidas em 2006 indicaram contaminação recente por TBT na área de estudo, evidenciando assim a permanência de fontes de poluição. A utilização de N. lapillus como bioindicador da poluição por TBT na Ria de Aveiro apresenta algumas limitações uma vez que a espécie não ocorre nas áreas mais interiores da Ria e não vive em contacto com sedimentos. Assim, a informação obtida a partir da sua utilização como bioindicador é fundamentalmente relativa aos níveis de TBT na coluna de água. Foi então necessário recorrer a um bioindicador complementar – Hydrobia ulvae – para melhor avaliar a evolução temporal da poluição por TBT no interior deste sistema estuarino e estudar a persistência de TBT nos sedimentos. Não foi registada uma diminuição dos níveis de imposex em H. ulvae na Ria de Aveiro entre 1998 e 2007, apesar da aplicação do Regulamento (CE) N.º 782/2003. Pelo contrário, houve um aumento global significativo da percentagem de fêmeas afectadas por imposex e um ligeiro aumento do VDSI, contrastando com o que tem sido descrito para outros bioindicadores na Ria de Aveiro no mesmo período. Estes resultados mostram que a diferente biologia/ecologia das espécies indicadoras determina vias distintas de acumulação de TBT, apontando a importância da escolha do bioindicador dependendo do compartimento a ser monitorizado (sedimento versus água). A ingestão de sedimento como hábito alimentar em H. ulvae foi discutida como sendo a razão para a escolha da espécie como indicadora da contaminação dos sedimentos por TBT. Foram também estudados os métodos mais fiáveis para reduzir a influência de variáveis críticas na medição dos níveis de imposex em H. ulvae. As comparações de parâmetros do imposex baseados em medições do pénis devem ser sempre realizadas sob condições de narcotização bem standardizadas uma vez que este procedimento provoca um aumento significativo do comprimento do pénis (PL) em ambos os sexos. O VDSI, a % e o PL em ambos os sexos revelaram ser fortemente influenciados pelo tamanho dos espécimes: a utilização de fêmeas mais pequenas conduz à subestimação do VDSI, da %I e do PL, enquanto que diferenças no tamanho dos machos provocam variações no índice do comprimento relativo do pénis (RPLI), independentemente dos níveis de poluição por TBT. Existe, portanto, a necessidade de controlar algumas variáveis envolvidas na análise do imposex que mostraram afectar a fiabilidade dos resultados. Uma vez que N. lapillus é o principal bioindicador dos efeitos biológicos específicos do TBT para a área da OSPAR, foi também estudada a influência de algumas variáveis na avaliação dos níveis de imposex nesta espécie, especificamente as relacionadas com o ciclo reprodutor e o tamanho dos espécimes. O estudo do ciclo reprodutor e a variação sazonal/espacial do comprimento do pénis do macho (MPL) incidiu num único local no litoral Português (Areão – região de Aveiro) de forma a avaliar se o RPSI varia sazonal e espacialmente na mesma estação de amostragem e se tais variações influenciam os resultados obtidos em programas de monitorização do imposex. Nos meses de Dezembro de 2005 a Junho de 2007, foram encontrados espécimes de N. lapillus sexualmente maturos e potencialmente aptos para a reprodução. Contudo, foi também evidente um padrão sazonal do ciclo reprodutor – o estado de desenvolvimento da gametogénese nas fêmeas variou sazonalmente e ocorreu uma diminuição do volume da glândula da cápsula e do factor de condição no final do Verão / início do Outono. Contrariamente, a gametogénese nos machos não apresentou variação sazonal significativa, embora os valores mais baixos do factor de condição, do comprimento do pénis e dos volumes de esperma e da próstata tenham também sido registados no final do Verão / início do Outono. Além disso, o MPL mostrou variar, no mesmo local de amostragem, inversamente com a distância aos ninhos de cápsulas ovígeras; um aumento dos valores do MPL foi também observado em espécimes de maior tamanho. Todas estas variações no MPL introduzem desvios nos resultados da avaliação do imposex quando é usado o RPSI. A magnitude do erro envolvido foi quantificada e revelou-se superior em locais com níveis mais elevados de poluição por TBT. Apesar do RPSI ser um índice que fornece informação importante sobre os níveis de poluição por TBT, a sua interpretação deve ser cuidadosa e realizada complementarmente com os outros índices, destacando-se o VDSI como índice mais fiável e com significado biológico mais expressivo. Novas campanhas de monitorização do imposex em N. lapillus foram realizadas ao longo da costa Portuguesa em 2006 e 2008, e os resultados subsequentemente comparados com a base de dados criada em 2003,de forma a avaliar a evolução da poluição por TBT no litoral Português naquele período. Nestes estudos foram aplicados novos procedimentos na monitorização e tratamento dos dados, de forma a minimizar a variação nos índices de avaliação do imposex induzida pelos factores acima descritos, para seguir com maior consistência a tendência da poluição por TBT entre 2003 e 2008. Foi observado um declínio global significativo na intensidade de imposex na área de estudo durante o referido período e a qualidade ecológica da costa Portuguesa, segundo os termos definidos pela Comissão OSPAR, revelou melhorias notáveis após 2003 confirmando a eficácia do Regulamento (CE) N.º 782/2003. Não obstante, as populações de N. lapillus revelaram-se ainda amplamente afectadas por imposex, tendo sido detectadas emissões de TBT na água do mar ao longo da costa em 2006, apesar da restrição anteriormente referida. Estes inputs foram atribuídos principalmente aos navios que à data ainda circulavam com tintas AV com TBT aplicadas antes de 2003, uma vez que a sua utilização nas embarcações foi apenas proibida em 2008. Considerando que o Regulamento (CE) N.º 782/2003 constitui uma antecipação da proibição global da OMI que entrou em vigor em Setembro de 2008, prevê-se, por analogia, que haja uma rápida diminuição da poluição por TBT à escala mundial num futuro próximo. Na sequência desta previsão, é apresentada uma discussão teórica preliminar relativamente ás possíveis estratégias usadas por N. lapillus na recolonização de locais onde, no passado, as populações terão aparentemente sido extintas devido a níveis extremamente elevados de TBT. Estes locais são tipicamente zonas abrigadas junto de infra-estruturas portuárias, cuja recolonização por esta espécie será provavelmente muito lenta dada a mobilidade reduzida dos adultos e o ciclo de vida não apresentar fase larvar pelágica. Foram então equacionadas duas hipotéticas vias de recolonização de zonas abrigadas por espécimes provenientes de populações de costa aberta/exposta: a migração de adultos e/ou a dispersão de juvenis. No entanto, em ambos os casos, estaria implicada a transposição de um problema amplamente descrito na bibliografia: as populações de N. lapillus de costa aberta podem apresentar um fenótipo muito diferente das de zonas abrigadas, podendo inclusivamente variar no número de cromossomas. A recolonização pode portanto não ter sucesso pelo simples facto dos novos recrutas não estarem bem adaptados aos locais a recolonizar. Para analisar este problema, foram estudados tanto a forma da concha de espécimes de N. lapillus ao longo da costa Portuguesa como o respectivo número de cromossomas. Embora a forma da concha tenha revelado diferenças, de acordo com o grau de hidrodinamismo entre as populações de N. lapillus avaliadas, o cariótipo 2n = 26, típico de zonas expostas, foi registado em todos os locais amostrados. Por outro lado, foi também testada em laboratório a possível mortalidade de juvenis em dispersão no interior menos salino dos estuários. Foi então verificada a ocorrência de mortalidade elevada de juvenis expostos a salinidades baixas (=100% após 1 hora a salinidades ≤9 psu), o que também pode comprometer a recolonização de zonas estuarinas menos salinas por esta via. Mesmo assim, os juvenis mostraram um comportamento de flutuação à superfície da água em condições laboratoriais, que pode ser considerado um benefício específico na colonização de áreas mais internas dos estuários, se tal facto vier a ser confirmado em estudos de campo. As conclusões deste estudo contribuem certamente para a descrição do final da “história do TBT” dado que, uma vez controlados alguns factores determinantes no uso do imposex como biomarcador, a avaliação do declínio da poluição por estes compostos, agora esperado à escala global, se torna mais rigorosa.