The planning theory and natural law

The practical, normative dimension of planning is a plausible source of the ‘family resemblances’ noted by a number of legal theorists between Scott Shapiro’s Planning Theory and natural law jurisprudence. Foremost among these resemblances is Shapiro’s contention that the law, necessarily, has a moral aim. The moral aim thesis is at first glance surprising given Shapiro’s intention to defend exclusive legal positivism and unequivocal rejection of what he takes to be the core commitments of natural law theory. Shapiro’s claim, however, is that although the law necessarily has a moral aim, this does not entail that it is successful in satisfying that aim. In order to assess this thesis, it is helpful to compare the Planning Theory with contemporary natural law approaches. Bringing Shapiro’s Planning Theory into dialogue with contemporary natural law theories can demonstrate some of the Planning Theory’s weaknesses as an alternative explanation of the ultimate grounds of the authoritativeness of legal norms. Some of these weaknesses, moreover, are instructive beyond the specific contours of the Planning Theory insofar as they generalise to other legal positivist approaches. In section one I consider Shapiro’s treatment of the so-called ‘Possibility Puzzle’ regarding the grounding relation between authoritative norms and legal authority. Shapiro’s denial of the capacity of earlier jurisprudential theories to resolve this puzzle overlooks what is – I suggest – a plausible solution developed by John Finnis on the basis of Joseph Raz’s theory of practical reason and norms. Section two then demonstrates why Shapiro’s attempt to combine a robust construal of the social facts thesis with a commitment to the thesis that law necessarily has a moral aim is ultimately unsuccessful.

Food demand elasticities for Australia

There is renewed interest in robust estimates of food demand elasticities at a disaggregated level not only to analyse the impact of changing food preferences on the agricultural sector, but also to establish the likely impact of pricing incentives on households. Using data drawn from two national Household Expenditure Surveys covering the periods 1998/1999 and 2003/2004, and adopting an Almost Ideal Demand System approach that addresses the zero observations problem, this paper estimates a food demand system for 15 food categories for Australia. The categories cover the standard food items that Australian households demand routinely. Own-price, cross-price and expenditure elasticity estimates of the Marshallian and Hicksian types have been derived for all categories. The parameter estimates obtained in this study represent the first integrated set of food demand elasticities based on a highly disaggregated food demand system for Australia, and all accord with economic intuition.

Marginal and Interaction Effects in Ordered Response Models

In discrete choice models the marginal effect of a variable of interest that is interacted with another variable differs from the marginal effect of a variable that is not interacted with any variable. The magnitude of the interaction effect is also not equal to the marginal effect of the interaction term. I present consistent estimators of both marginal and interaction effects in ordered response models. This procedure is general and can easily be extended to other discrete choice models.

Earth-based spirituality in Australian outdoor & environmental studies

Australian Outdoor & Environmental Studies (OES), under the curriculum framework of Health and Physical Education (HPE), is influenced by dominant discourses of androcentric perspectives of wilderness. As such, inherent adventure hegemonies impact the type and depth of relationship that can emerge with nature. Through an eco-feminist lens, I will draw on the stories of three adolescent students and their encounters with spiritual pedagogy, namely meditation practices within Australian OES. These student stories, collected during a 5-day hiking expedition in a remote coastal environment in southern Victoria, demonstrated that ideas of ‘femininity’ are subjugated and inferiorised to ideas of ‘masculinity’ in the outdoors. Therefore, I call for OES pedagogical approaches to work towards a more robust integration of ‘masculine’ and ‘feminine’ psyches towards values of deep ecology. In this paper I will draw on Merleau - Ponty’s emotional embodiment theories and Jung’s psychological theories, to argue for a reshaping of OES pedagogical approaches that more thoroughly include spiritual and emotional inquiry, in order to create deeper connections to the natural world in the context of contemporary global environmental challenges.

Practitioners' corner: data dependent endogeneity correction in cointegrated panels

This paper examines the small-sample performance of several information based criteria that can be employed to facilitate data dependent endogeneity correction in estimation of cointegrated panel regressions. The Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the criteria generally perform well but that there are differences of practical importance. In particular, the evidence suggests that, although the estimators of the cointegration vectors generally perform well, the criterion with best small-sample performance also leads to the best performing estimator. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2005.

Fracture prediction from repeat BMD measurements in clinical practice

Summary: We investigated whether repeat BMD measurements in clinical populations are useful for fracture risk assessment. We report that repeat BMD measurements are a robust predictor of fracture in clinical populations; this is not affected by preceding BMD change or recent osteoporosis therapy. Introduction: In clinical practice, many patients selectively undergo repeat bone mineral density (BMD) measurements. We investigated whether repeat BMD measurements in clinical populations are useful for fracture risk assessment and whether this is affected by preceding change in BMD or recent osteoporosis therapy. Methods: We identified women and men aged ≥50 years who had a BMD measurement during 1990–2009 from a large clinical BMD database for Manitoba, Canada (n = 50,215). Patient subgroups aged ≥50 years at baseline with repeat BMD measures were identified. Data were linked to an administrative data repository, from which osteoporosis therapy, fracture outcomes, and covariates were extracted. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed covariate-adjusted risk for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture according to BMD (total hip, lumbar spine, femoral neck) at different time points. Results: Prevalence of osteoporosis therapy increased from 18 % at baseline to 55 % by the fourth measurement. Total hip BMD was predictive of MOF at each time point. In the patient subgroup with two repeat BMD measurements (n = 13,481), MOF prediction with the first and second measurements was similar: adjusted-hazard ratio (HR) per SD 1.45 (95 % CI 1.34–1.56) vs. 1.64 (95 % CI 1.48–1.81), respectively. No differences were seen when the second measurement results were stratified by preceding change in BMD or osteoporosis therapy (both p-interactions >0.2). Similar results were seen for hip fracture prediction and when spine and femoral neck BMD were analyzed. Conclusion: Repeat BMD measurements are a robust predictor of fracture in clinical populations; this is not affected by preceding BMD change or recent osteoporosis therapy.

Can macroalgae contribute to blue carbon? An Australian perspective

Macroalgal communities in Australia and around the world store vast quantities of carbon in their living biomass, but their prevalence of growing on hard substrata means that they have limited capacity to act as long-term carbon sinks. Unlike other coastal blue carbon habitats such as seagrasses, saltmarshes and mangroves, they do not develop their own organic-rich sediments, but may instead act as a rich carbon source and make significant contributions in the form of detritus to sedimentary habitats by acting as a “carbon donor” to “receiver sites” where organic material accumulates. The potential for storage of this donated carbon however, is dependent on the decay rate during transport and the burial efficiency at receiver sites. To better understand the potential contribution of macroalgal communities to coastal blue carbon budgets, a comprehensive literature search was conducted using key words, including carbon sequestration, macroalgal distribution, abundance and productivity to provide an estimation of the total amount of carbon stored in temperate Australian macroalgae. Our most conservative calculations estimate 109.9 Tg C is stored in living macroalgal biomass of temperate Australia, using a coastal area covering 249,697 km2. Estimates derived for tropical and subtropical regions contributed an additional 23.2 Tg C. By extending the search to include global studies we provide a broader context and rationale for the study, contributing to the global aspects of the review. In addition, we discuss the potential role of calcium carbonate-containing macroalgae, consider the dynamic nature of macroalgal populations in the context of climate change, and identify the knowledge gaps that once addressed will enable robust quantification of macroalgae in marine biogeochemical cycling of carbon. We conclude that macroalgal communities have the potential to make ecologically meaningful contributions toward global blue carbon sequestration, as donors, but given that the fate of detached macroalgal biomass remains unclear, further research is needed to quantify this contribution.

Using repeatability to study physiological and behavioural traits: ignore time-related change at your peril

© 2015 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Broad sense repeatability, which refers to the extent to which individual differences in trait scores are maintained over time, is of increasing interest to researchers studying behavioural or physiological traits. Broad sense repeatability is most often inferred from the statistic R (the intraclass correlation, or narrow sense repeatability). However, R ignores change over time, despite the inherent longitudinal nature of the data (repeated measures over time). Here, we begin by showing that most studies ignore time-related change when estimating broad sense repeatability, and estimate R with low statistical power. Given this problem, we (1) outline how and why ignoring time-related change in scores (that occurs for whatever reason) can seriously affect estimates of the broad sense repeatability of behavioural or physiological traits, (2) discuss conditions in which various indices of R can or cannot provide reliable estimates of broad sense repeatability, and (3) provide suggestions for experimental designs for future studies. Finally, given that we already have abundant evidence that many labile traits are 'repeatable' in that broad sense (i.e. R>. 0), we suggest a shift in focus towards obtaining robust estimates of the repeatability of behavioural and physiological traits. Given how labile these traits are, this will require greater experimental (and/or statistical) control and larger sample sizes in order to detect and quantify change over time (if present).

A new process capability index for multiple quality characteristics based on principal components

This paper presents a new multivariate process capability index (MPCI) which is based on the principal component analysis (PCA) and is dependent on a parameter (Formula presented.) which can take on any real number. This MPCI generalises some existing multivariate indices based on PCA proposed by several authors when (Formula presented.) or (Formula presented.). One of the key contributions of this paper is to show that there is a direct correspondence between this MPCI and process yield for a unique value of (Formula presented.). This result is used to establish a relationship between the capability status of the process and to show that under some mild conditions, the estimators of this MPCI is consistent and converge to a normal distribution. This is then applied to perform tests of statistical hypotheses and in determining sample sizes. Several numerical examples are presented with the objective of illustrating the procedures and demonstrating how they can be applied to determine the viability and capacity of different manufacturing processes.

Ideological changes and tax structure: Latin American countries during the nineties

Sabatini (2002) and Roberts and Wibbles (1999) Pointed Out That Voters in Latin American Countries are no Longer Choosing According to Their Ideological Preferences. Ashworth and Heyndels (2002) Showed That the Tax Choice In Oecd Countries Does not Follow the Ideological Pattern of Party Preferences. the Most Robust Result of This Work Shows That the Tax Choice in Latin American Countries Still Depends on This Ideological Preference. We Also Verified That Changes in the Tax Structure Depend on Changes Both in the Tax Burden and the Openness of the Economy

Comparação de carteiras otimizadas segundo o critério média-variância formadas através de estimativas robustas de risco e retorno

Este trabalho examinou as características de carteiras compostas por ações e otimizadas segundo o critério de média-variância e formadas através de estimativas robustas de risco e retorno. A motivação para isto é a distribuição típica de ativos financeiros (que apresenta outliers e mais curtose que a distribuição normal). Para comparação entre as carteiras, foram consideradas suas propriedades: estabilidade, variabilidade e os índices de Sharpe obtidos pelas mesmas. O resultado geral mostra que estas carteiras obtidas através de estimativas robustas de risco e retorno apresentam melhoras em sua estabilidade e variabilidade, no entanto, esta melhora é insuficiente para diferenciar os índices de Sharpe alcançados pelas mesmas das carteiras obtidas através de método de máxima verossimilhança para estimativas de risco e retorno.

Estudo do impacto do ponto-de-venda no índice de matrículas do colégio Americano Batista

A Ciência da Localização é amplamente utilizada por várias outras ciências, inclusive pelo Marketing, que, com o apoio da Geografia, forma o Geomarketing, área de estudo cada vez mais utilizada para a localização do ponto-de-venda. Na divisão do composto do Marketing, uma das estratégias é o canal de distribuição em que se encontra o Marketing de varejo. A localização do ponto-de-venda é uma das preocupações do empresário varejista, quando decide abrir uma loja ou uma nova loja para aumentar a sua rede. A abertura de um ponto-de-venda pode ser realizada intuitivamente pelo próprio varejista ou por um profissional do Marketing, com estudos técnicos e pesquisas. Nesse contexto, a criação de uma unidade escolar pode passar pelo mesmo processo técnico usado na abertura de lojas comerciais. O Colégio Americano Batista, situado no Centro de Vitória, Estado do Espírito Santo, instituição quase centenária, encontrava-se dentro do processo de transferência do comércio da cidade para outra área e, com isso, poderia sofrer as conseqüências desse processo. O presente trabalho concentra-se em estudar o impacto provocado pela abertura de novas unidades no total de matrículas da Instituição.

Infraestrutura e produtividade: uma análise empírica

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo analisar a relação entre infra-estrutura e produtividade total dos fatores (PTF) no Brasil e em outros países da América Latina ¿ Argentina, Chile e México. Primeiramente, foi estimado o impacto da relação capital público-privado sobre a produtividade brasileira. Para tanto, utilizou-se um VECM de maneira a investigar a interação entre essas variáveis tanto no longo prazo como no curto (médio). De fato, comprovou-se que essa relação de complementaridade (capital público-privado) ajuda a explicar a trajetória da PTF de 1950 a 2000. Além disso, a análise de curto (médio) prazo indicou que choques (positivos) nesta relação têm um impacto significativo sobre a PTF, mas o contrário não ocorre. Posteriormente, foi testada a hipótese de cointegração entre as medidas físicas de estoques de infra-estrutura (energia elétrica, rodovias e telefonia) e PTF para os países mencionados, através de duas metodologias ¿ procedimento de Johansen e teste de Saikkonen e Lütkepohl (S&L). As elasticidades estimadas sugerem que os setores de energia e rodovias têm uma influência positiva sobre a PTF, portanto, sobre o crescimento econômico de longo prazo. O setor de telefonia não apresentou resultados robustos de cointegração com a produtividade, o que pode indicar um efeito menos expressivo deste setor sobre o crescimento econômico.

O crime de drogas e a violência em São Paulo: uma análise a partir da Lei de Drogas

O objetivo desta pesquisa é estudar o efeito da Lei nº 11.343/06 (Lei de Drogas) sobre o crime de tráfico e porte de drogas e a relação entre crimes de drogas e outros crimes. Para isso, são exploradas as variações da Lei de Drogas, através de análises de regressões com descontinuidade e com variável instrumental, além de estimações com dados em painel, em busca de um efeito causal entre drogas e violência. Como resultados, a Lei de Drogas parece não ter efeito negativo significativo sobre crimes de drogas. Por outro lado, crimes de drogas apresentam uma associação negativa sobre crimes de furto e uma relação positiva com crimes de formação de quadrilha. Para cada redução de 100 crimes de drogas (por mil habitantes) associa-se um aumento de 3,6 crimes de furto (por mil habitantes) e uma diminuição de 27 crimes de formação de quadrilha (por mil habitantes). Não são encontrados efeitos robustos sobre roubos, homicídios, latrocínios, estupros, crimes de lesão corporal e porte de arma de fogo.

Consumption-wealth ratio and expected stock returns: evidence from panel data

This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.