Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction

South peninsular India experiences a large portion of the annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). In this study, the facets of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (the NEMR) over India have been examined. The analysis of satellite derived hourly rainfall reveals that there are distinct features of diurnal variation over the land and oceans during the season. Over the land, rainfall peaks during the late afternoon/evening, while over the oceans an early morning peak is observed. The harmonic analysis of hourly data reveals that the amplitude and variance are the largest over south peninsular India. The NEMR also exhibits significant intra-seasonal variability on a 20-40 day time scale. Analysis also shows significant northward propagation of the maximum cloud zone from south of equator to the south peninsula during the season. The NEMR exhibits large inter-annual variability with the co-efficient of variation (CV) of 25%. The positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are conducive for normal to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon. There are multi-decadal variations in the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR. During the period 2001-2010 the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR has significantly weakened. The analysis of seasonal rainfall hindcasts for the period 1960-2005 produced by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models, ENSEMBLES, reveals that the coupled models have very poor skill in predicting the inter-annual variability of the NEMR. This is mainly due to the inability of the ENSEMBLES models to simulate the positive relationship between ENSO and the NEMR correctly. Copyright (C) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Road to Royalty - Transition of Potential Queen to Queen in the Primitively Eusocial Wasp Ropalidia marginata

Ropalidia marginata, a primitively eusocial wasp, is different from typical primitively eusocial species in having docile queens who cannot be using dominance to maintain reproductive monopoly and instead appear to use a pheromone from the Dufour's gland to do so. When a docile queen is removed from her colony, one of the workers (potential queen, PQ) becomes highly aggressive, and if the queen is not returned, gradually loses her aggression and becomes the new docile queen within a few days. We hypothesized that the decrease in aggression of the PQ with time since queen removal should be correlated with her change in ovaries and pheromone profile. Because the Dufour's gland hydrocarbon composition in R.marginata can be correlated with fertility, this also gave us an opportunity to test whether PQ is different from workers in her Dufour's gland hydrocarbons. In this study, we therefore trace the road to royalty in R.marginata, that is, the transition of the PQ during queen establishment, in terms of her ovaries, aggression, and Dufour's gland hydrocarbons. Our study focuses on queen establishment, which is important for understanding how reproductive conflict can be manifested and resolved.

IDH1 Mutations in Diffusely Infiltrating Astrocytomas Grade Specificity, Association With Protein Expression, and Clinical Relevance

IDH1 mutations are frequent genetic alterations in low-grade diffuse gliomas and secondary glioblastoma (GBM). To validate mutation frequency, IDH1 gene at codon 132 was sequenced in 74 diffusely infiltrating astrocytomas: diffuse astrocytoma (DA; World Health Organization WHO] grade II), anaplastic astrocytoma (AA; WHO grade III), and GBM (WHO grade IV). All cases were immunostained with IDH1-R132H monoclonal antibody. Mutational status was correlated with mutant protein expression, patient age, duration of symptoms, and prognosis of patients with GBM. We detected 31 (41.9%) heterozygous IDH1 mutations resulting in arginine-to-histidine substitution (R132H;CGT-CAT). All 12 DAs (100%), 13 of 14 AAs (92.9%), and 6 of 48 GBMs (12.5%) (5/6 83.3%] secondary, and 1/42 2.4%] primary) harbored IDH1 mutations. The correlation between mutational status and protein expression was significant (P < .001). IDH1 mutation status, though not associated with prognosis of patients with GBM, showed significant association with younger age and longer duration of symptoms in the whole cohort (P < .001). Our study validates IDH1 mutant protein expression across various grades of astrocytoma, and demonstrates a high incidence of IDH1 mutations in DA, AA, and secondary GBM.

On the height of fall of dropping mass in SASW measurements for asphaltic road pavements

A number of spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) tests were performed on asphaltic road pavements by dropping a metallic 6.5 kg sphere, from a height (H) ranging from 1 to 3 m. Various combinations of source to first receiver distance (S) and receiver spacing (X) were employed. By increasing the height of the fall of the dropping mass, the maximum wavelength (lambda(max)), up to which the shear wave velocity profile can be predicted with the usage of the SASW measurements, was found to increase continuously. The height of fall of the dropping mass also seems to affect the admissible range of the wavelength for given combinations of X and S. Irrespective of different chosen combinations of S, X and H, a unique combined dispersion curve was generated in all the cases for a given pavement site as long as the threshold minimum value of the coherence function is greater than 0.90.

Rationalization and prediction of drug resistant mutations in targets for clinical anti-tubercular drugs

Resistance to therapy limits the effectiveness of drug treatment in many diseases. Drug resistance can be considered as a successful outcome of the bacterial struggle to survive in the hostile environment of a drug-exposed cell. An important mechanism by which bacteria acquire drug resistance is through mutations in the drug target. Drug resistant strains (multi-drug resistant and extensively drug resistant) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis are being identified at alarming rates, increasing the global burden of tuberculosis. An understanding of the nature of mutations in different drug targets and how they achieve resistance is therefore important. An objective of this study is to first decipher sequence as well as structural bases for the observed resistance in known drug resistant mutants and then to predict positions in each target that are more prone to acquiring drug resistant mutations. A curated database containing hundreds of mutations in the 38 drug targets of nine major clinical drugs, associated with resistance is studied here. Mutations have been classified into those that occur in the binding site itself, those that occur in residues interacting with the binding site and those that occur in outer zones. Structural models of the wild type and mutant forms of the target proteins have been analysed to seek explanations for reduction in drug binding. Stability analysis of an entire array of 19 mutations at each of the residues for each target has been computed using structural models. Conservation indices of individual residues, binding sites and whole proteins are computed based on sequence conservation analysis of the target proteins. The analyses lead to insights about which positions in the polypeptide chain have a higher propensity to acquire drug resistant mutations. Thus critical insights can be obtained about the effect of mutations on drug binding, in terms of which amino acid positions and therefore which interactions should not be heavily relied upon, which in turn can be translated into guidelines for modifying the existing drugs as well as for designing new drugs. The methodology can serve as a general framework to study drug resistant mutants in other micro-organisms as well.

Prediction of Shallow Landslide prone regions in Undulating Terrains

Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) with free and open source software (FOSS) - Open Modeller were used to model the probable landslide occurrence points. Environmental layers such as aspect, digital elevation, flow accumulation, flow direction, slope, land cover, compound topographic index and precipitation have been used in modeling. Simulated output of these techniques is validated with the actual landslide occurrence points, which showed 92% (GARP) and 96% (SVM) accuracy considering precipitation in the wettest month and 91% and 94% accuracy considering precipitation in the wettest quarter of the year.

HD resolution intra prediction architecture for H.264 decoder

High performance video standards use prediction techniques to achieve high picture quality at low bit rates. The type of prediction decides the bit rates and the image quality. Intra Prediction achieves high video quality with significant reduction in bit rate. This paper presents novel area optimized architecture for Intra prediction of H.264 decoding at HDTV resolution. The architecture has been validated on a Xilinx Virtex-5 FPGA based platform and achieved a frame rate of 64 fps. The architecture is based on multi-level memory hierarchy to reduce latency and ensure optimum resources utilization. It removes redundancy by reusing same functional blocks across different modes. The proposed architecture uses only 13% of the total LUTs available on the Xilinx FPGA XC5VLX50T.

Prediction of Ground Water Levels in the Uplands of a Tropical Coastal Riparian Wetland using Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been found to be a robust tool to model many non-linear hydrological processes. The present study aims at evaluating the performance of ANN in simulating and predicting ground water levels in the uplands of a tropical coastal riparian wetland. The study involves comparison of two network architectures, Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) trained under five algorithms namely Levenberg Marquardt algorithm, Resilient Back propagation algorithm, BFGS Quasi Newton algorithm, Scaled Conjugate Gradient algorithm, and Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm by simulating the water levels in a well in the study area. The study is analyzed in two cases-one with four inputs to the networks and two with eight inputs to the networks. The two networks-five algorithms in both the cases are compared to determine the best performing combination that could simulate and predict the process satisfactorily. Ad Hoc (Trial and Error) method is followed in optimizing network structure in all cases. On the whole, it is noticed from the results that the Artificial Neural Networks have simulated and predicted the water levels in the well with fair accuracy. This is evident from low values of Normalized Root Mean Square Error and Relative Root Mean Square Error and high values of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index and Correlation Coefficient (which are taken as the performance measures to calibrate the networks) calculated after the analysis. On comparison of ground water levels predicted with those at the observation well, FFNN trained with Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm taken four inputs has outperformed all other combinations.

Automatic road extraction using high resolution satellite images based on Level Set and Mean Shift methods

Analysis of high resolution satellite images has been an important research topic for urban analysis. One of the important features of urban areas in urban analysis is the automatic road network extraction. Two approaches for road extraction based on Level Set and Mean Shift methods are proposed. From an original image it is difficult and computationally expensive to extract roads due to presences of other road-like features with straight edges. The image is preprocessed to improve the tolerance by reducing the noise (the buildings, parking lots, vegetation regions and other open spaces) and roads are first extracted as elongated regions, nonlinear noise segments are removed using a median filter (based on the fact that road networks constitute large number of small linear structures). Then road extraction is performed using Level Set and Mean Shift method. Finally the accuracy for the road extracted images is evaluated based on quality measures. The 1m resolution IKONOS data has been used for the experiment.

Position control of DC motors with experience mapping based prediction controller

The paper presents a new controller inspired by the human experience based, voluntary body action control (dubbed motor control) learning mechanism. The controller is called Experience Mapping based Prediction Controller (EMPC). EMPC is designed with auto-learning features without the need for the plant model. The core of the controller is formed around the motor action prediction-control mechanism of humans based on past experiential learning with the ability to adapt to environmental changes intelligently. EMPC is utilized for high precision position control of DC motors. The simulation results are presented to show that accurate position control is achieved using EMPC for step and dynamic demands. The performance of EMPC is compared with conventional PD controller and MRAC based position controller under different system conditions. Position Control using EMPC is practically implemented and the results are presented.

Information content of molecular graph and prediction of gas phase thermal entropy of organic compounds

Entropy is a fundamental thermodynamic property that has attracted a wide attention across domains, including chemistry. Inference of entropy of chemical compounds using various approaches has been a widely studied topic. However, many aspects of entropy in chemical compounds remain unexplained. In the present work, we propose two new information-theoretical molecular descriptors for the prediction of gas phase thermal entropy of organic compounds. The descriptors reflect the bulk and size of the compounds as well as the gross topological symmetry in their structures, all of which are believed to determine entropy. A high correlation () between the entropy values and our information-theoretical indices have been found and the predicted entropy values, obtained from the corresponding statistically significant regression model, have been found to be within acceptable approximation. We provide additional mathematical result in the form of a theorem and proof that might further help in assessing changes in gas phase thermal entropy values with the changes in molecular structures. The proposed information-theoretical molecular descriptors, regression model and the mathematical result are expected to augment predictions of gas phase thermal entropy for a large number of chemical compounds.

Ground motion prediction equation considering combined dataset of recorded and simulated ground motions

Himalayan region is one of the most active seismic regions in the world and many researchers have highlighted the possibility of great seismic event in the near future due to seismic gap. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of highly populated places in the region are mandatory in a regional scale. Region specific Ground Motion Predictive Equation (GMPE) is an important input in the seismic hazard analysis for macro- and micro-zonation studies. Few GMPEs developed in India are based on the recorded data and are applicable for a particular range of magnitudes and distances. This paper focuses on the development of a new GMPE for the Himalayan region considering both the recorded and simulated earthquakes of moment magnitude 5.3-8.7. The Finite Fault simulation model has been used for the ground motion simulation considering region specific seismotectonic parameters from the past earthquakes and source models. Simulated acceleration time histories and response spectra are compared with available records. In the absence of a large number of recorded data, simulations have been performed at unavailable locations by adopting Apparent Stations concept. Earthquakes recorded up to 2007 have been used for the development of new GMPE and earthquakes records after 2007 are used to validate new GMPE. Proposed GMPE matched very well with recorded data and also with other highly ranked GMPEs developed elsewhere and applicable for the region. Comparison of response spectra also have shown good agreement with recorded earthquake data. Quantitative analysis of residuals for the proposed GMPE and region specific GMPEs to predict Nepal-India 2011 earthquake of Mw of 5.7 records values shows that the proposed GMPE predicts Peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for entire distance and period range with lower percent residual when compared to exiting region specific GMPEs. Crown Copyright (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epoch extraction based on integrated linear prediction residual using plosion index

Epoch is defined as the instant of significant excitation within a pitch period of voiced speech. Epoch extraction continues to attract the interest of researchers because of its significance in speech analysis. Existing high performance epoch extraction algorithms require either dynamic programming techniques or a priori information of the average pitch period. An algorithm without such requirements is proposed based on integrated linear prediction residual (ILPR) which resembles the voice source signal. Half wave rectified and negated ILPR (or Hilbert transform of ILPR) is used as the pre-processed signal. A new non-linear temporal measure named the plosion index (PI) has been proposed for detecting `transients' in speech signal. An extension of PI, called the dynamic plosion index (DPI) is applied on pre-processed signal to estimate the epochs. The proposed DPI algorithm is validated using six large databases which provide simultaneous EGG recordings. Creaky and singing voice samples are also analyzed. The algorithm has been tested for its robustness in the presence of additive white and babble noise and on simulated telephone quality speech. The performance of the DPI algorithm is found to be comparable or better than five state-of-the-art techniques for the experiments considered.