The effect of demand, tank parameters, and pumping stations on energy use in municipal drinking water distribution systems

Two of the indicators of the UN Millennium Development Goals ensuring environmental sustainability are energy use and per capita carbon dioxide emissions. The increasing urbanization and increasing world population may require increased energy use in order to transport enough safe drinking water to communities. In addition, the increase in water use would result in increased energy consumption, thereby resulting in increased green-house gas emissions that promote global climate change. The study of multiple Municipal Drinking Water Distribution Systems (MDWDSs) that relates various MDWDS aspects--system components and properties--to energy use is strongly desirable. The understanding of the relationship between system aspects and energy use aids in energy-efficient design. In this study, components of a MDWDS, and/or the characteristics associated with the component are termed as MDWDS aspects (hereafter--system aspects). There are many aspects of MDWDSs that affect the energy usage. Three system aspects (1) system-wide water demand, (2) storage tank parameters, and (3) pumping stations were analyzed in this study. The study involved seven MDWDSs to understand the relationship between the above-mentioned system aspects in relation with energy use. A MDWDSs model, EPANET 2.0, was utilized to analyze the seven systems. Six of the systems were real and one was a hypothetical system. The study presented here is unique in its statistical approach using seven municipal water distribution systems. The first system aspect studied was system-wide water demand. The analysis involved analyzing seven systems for the variation of water demand and its impact on energy use. To quantify the effects of water use reduction on energy use in a municipal water distribution system, the seven systems were modeled and the energy usage quantified for various amounts of water conservation. It was found that the effect of water conservation on energy use was linear for all seven systems and that all the average values of all the systems' energy use plotted on the same line with a high R 2 value. From this relationship, it can be ascertained that a 20% reduction in water demand results in approximately a 13% savings in energy use for all seven systems analyzed. This figure might hold true for many similar systems that are dominated by pumping and not gravity driven. The second system aspect analyzed was storage tank(s) parameters. Various tank parameters: (1) tank maximum water levels, (2) tank elevation, and (3) tank diameter were considered in this part of the study. MDWDSs use a significant amount of electrical energy for the pumping of water from low elevations (usually a source) to higher ones (usually storage tanks). The use of electrical energy has an effect on pollution emissions and, therefore, potential global climate change as well. Various values of these tank parameters were modeled on seven MDWDSs of various sizes using a network solver and the energy usage recorded. It was found that when averaged over all seven analyzed systems (1) the reduction of maximum tank water level by 50% results in a 2% energy reduction, (2) energy use for a change in tank elevation is system specific, and (2) a reduction of tank diameter of 50% results in approximately a 7% energy savings. The third system aspect analyzed in this study was pumping station parameters. A pumping station consists of one or more pumps. The seven systems were analyzed to understand the effect of the variation of pump horsepower and the number of booster stations on energy use. It was found that adding booster stations could save energy depending upon the system characteristics. For systems with flat topography, a single main pumping station was found to use less energy. In systems with a higher-elevation neighborhood, however, one or more booster pumps with a reduced main pumping station capacity used less energy. The energy savings for the seven systems was dependent on the number of boosters and ranged from 5% to 66% for the analyzed five systems with higher elevation neighborhoods (S3, S4, S5, S6, and S7). No energy savings was realized for the remaining two flat topography systems, S1, and S2. The present study analyzed and established the relationship between various system aspects and energy use in seven MDWDSs. This aids in estimating the amount of energy savings in MDWDSs. This energy savings would ultimately help reduce Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions including per capita CO 2 emissions thereby potentially lowering the global climate change effect. This will in turn contribute to meeting the MDG of ensuring environmental sustainability.

Strategies for routine biopsies in heart transplantation based on 8-year results with more than 13,000 biopsies

The endomyocardial biopsy (EMB) in heart transplant recipients has been considered the "gold standard" for diagnosis of graft rejection (REJ). The purpose of this retrospective study is to develop long-term strategies (frequency and postoperative duration of EMB) for REJ monitoring. Between 1985 and 1992, 346 patients (mean age 44.5 years, female patients = 14%) received 382 heart grafts. For graft surveillance EMBs were performed according to a fixed schedule depending on postoperative day and the results of previous biopsies. In the first year the average number (no.) of EMBs/patient was 20 with 19% positive for REJ in the first quarter, dropping to 7% REJ/EMB by the end of the first year. The percentage of REJ/EMB declined annually from 4.7% to 4.5%, 2.2% and less than 1% after the fifth year. Individual biopsy results in the first 3 postoperative months had little predictive value. Patients with fewer than two REJ (group 1), vs patients with two or more REJ in the first 6 postoperative months (group 2), were significantly less likely to reject in the second half of the first year (group 1: 0.29 +/- 0.6 REJ/patient; group 2:0.83 +/- 1.3 REJ/patient; P < 0.001) and third postoperative year (group 1:0.12 +/- 0.33 REJ/patients; group 2:0.46 +/- 0.93 REJ/patient; P < 0.05). In conclusion, routine EMBs in the first 3 postoperative months have only limited predictive value, however the number of routine EMBs can be drastically reduced later depending on the intermediate postoperative REJ pattern.

Taurolidine in the prevention and therapy of lung metastases

OBJECTIVE: During surgery for colon carcinoma, tumour cells may spread into the blood and may lead to the development of distant metastases. The most frequent sites of metastases are the liver and lungs. A new therapeutic approach is required to prevent tumour implantation of freely circulating tumour cells during and after surgery and to treat established metastases. The aim of this prospective study was to observe the influence of long-term intravenous taurolidine on the development of lung metastases after intravenous injection of colon adenocarcinoma cells. METHODS: Tumour cells (DHD/K12/TRb colon adenocarcinoma cell line, 1 x 10(6) cells) were injected into the right vena jugularis interna of BDIX rats. The animals (n=13) were randomised into three groups: group 1: tumour cell implantation without taurolidine application (control group); group 2: tumour cell implantation and simultaneous start of the taurolidine injection through osmotic pump, removal of the osmotic pump on day 7; group 3: tumour cell implantation on day 0 and start of the taurolidine injection through osmotic pump on day 14. RESULTS: In the taurolidine groups, the number and size of lung metastases were significantly lower compared to the control group (p=0.018; p=0.018 and p=0.036; p=0.018). Although the results of the intravenous long-term therapy with taurolidine in group 2 did not reach statistical significance in comparison with the results of group 3, a positive trend was revealed: The mean number of metastases in group 2 was 18.2 versus 28.2 in group 3. CONCLUSIONS: The application of taurolidine tends to prevent the development of lung metastases. Furthermore, taurolidine seems to reduce established lung metastases in this in vivo model. Taurolidine may offer additional therapeutic options in patients with colon adenocarcinoma.

Bayesian statistics in oncology: a guide for the clinical investigator

The rise of evidence-based medicine as well as important progress in statistical methods and computational power have led to a second birth of the >200-year-old Bayesian framework. The use of Bayesian techniques, in particular in the design and interpretation of clinical trials, offers several substantial advantages over the classical statistical approach. First, in contrast to classical statistics, Bayesian analysis allows a direct statement regarding the probability that a treatment was beneficial. Second, Bayesian statistics allow the researcher to incorporate any prior information in the analysis of the experimental results. Third, Bayesian methods can efficiently handle complex statistical models, which are suited for advanced clinical trial designs. Finally, Bayesian statistics encourage a thorough consideration and presentation of the assumptions underlying an analysis, which enables the reader to fully appraise the authors' conclusions. Both Bayesian and classical statistics have their respective strengths and limitations and should be viewed as being complementary to each other; we do not attempt to make a head-to-head comparison, as this is beyond the scope of the present review. Rather, the objective of the present article is to provide a nonmathematical, reader-friendly overview of the current practice of Bayesian statistics coupled with numerous intuitive examples from the field of oncology. It is hoped that this educational review will be a useful resource to the oncologist and result in a better understanding of the scope, strengths, and limitations of the Bayesian approach.

Mid-term results of transphyseal anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in children and adolescents

BACKGROUND Optimal therapy for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture in the paediatric population still provokes controversy. Although conservative and operative treatments are both applied, operative therapy is slightly favored. Among available surgical techniques are physeal-sparing reconstruction and transphyseal graft fixation. The aim of this study was to present our mid-term results after transphyseal ACL reconstruction. METHODS Fifteen young patients (mean age=12.8±2.6, range=6.2-15.8years, Tanner stage=2-4) with open physis and traumatic anterior cruciate rupture who had undergone transphyseal ACL reconstruction with unilateral quadriceps tendon graft were prospectively analyzed. All children were submitted to radiological evaluation to determine the presence of clearly open growth plates in both the distal femur and proximal tibia. Postoperatively, all patients were treated according to a standardized rehabilitation protocol and evaluated by radiographic analysis and the Lysholm-Gillquist and IKDC 2000 scores. Their health-related quality of life was measured using the SF-12 PCS (physical component summary) and MCS (mental component summary) questionnaires. RESULTS Mean postoperative follow-up was 4.1years. Mean Lysholm-Gillquist score was 94.0. Thirteen of the 15 knees were considered nearly normal on the IKDC 2000 score. The mean SF-12 questionnaire score was 54.0±4.8 for SF-12 PCS and 59.1±3.7 for SF-12 MCS. No reruptures were observed. Radiological analysis detected one knee with valgus deformity. All patients had a normal gait pattern without restrictions. CONCLUSION Transphyseal reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament shows satisfactory mid-term results in the immature patient.

Percutaneous left-ventricular support with the Impella-2.5-assist device in acute cardiogenic shock: results of the Impella-EUROSHOCK-registry

BACKGROUND Acute cardiogenic shock after myocardial infarction is associated with high in-hospital mortality attributable to persisting low-cardiac output. The Impella-EUROSHOCK-registry evaluates the safety and efficacy of the Impella-2.5-percutaneous left-ventricular assist device in patients with cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS This multicenter registry retrospectively included 120 patients (63.6±12.2 years; 81.7% male) with cardiogenic shock from acute myocardial infarction receiving temporary circulatory support with the Impella-2.5-percutaneous left-ventricular assist device. The primary end point evaluated mortality at 30 days. The secondary end point analyzed the change of plasma lactate after the institution of hemodynamic support, and the rate of early major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events as well as long-term survival. Thirty-day mortality was 64.2% in the study population. After Impella-2.5-percutaneous left-ventricular assist device implantation, lactate levels decreased from 5.8±5.0 mmol/L to 4.7±5.4 mmol/L (P=0.28) and 2.5±2.6 mmol/L (P=0.023) at 24 and 48 hours, respectively. Early major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were reported in 18 (15%) patients. Major bleeding at the vascular access site, hemolysis, and pericardial tamponade occurred in 34 (28.6%), 9 (7.5%), and 2 (1.7%) patients, respectively. The parameters of age >65 and lactate level >3.8 mmol/L at admission were identified as predictors of 30-day mortality. After 317±526 days of follow-up, survival was 28.3%. CONCLUSIONS In patients with acute cardiogenic shock from acute myocardial infarction, Impella 2.5-treatment is feasible and results in a reduction of lactate levels, suggesting improved organ perfusion. However, 30-day mortality remains high in these patients. This likely reflects the last-resort character of Impella-2.5-application in selected patients with a poor hemodynamic profile and a greater imminent risk of death. Carefully conducted randomized controlled trials are necessary to evaluate the efficacy of Impella-2.5-support in this high-risk patient group.

Cholesteatoma surgery in children: long-term results of the inside-out technique

OBJECTIVE To present the anatomical and functional results of the inside-out technique applied in pediatric cholestetaoma surgery and to evaluate functionality with good hearing results against radicality with lower recurrence rate. METHODS Retrospective analysis and evaluation of the postoperative outcome in a consecutive series of 126 children or 130 ears operated between 1992 and 2008. With the inside-out technique, cholesteatoma is eradicated from the epitympanum toward the mastoid and, as a single stage procedure, functional reconstruction of the middle ear is achieved by tympanoossiculoplasty. RESULTS In 89.2% of all cases, the ear was dry postoperatively. 80.9% of the ears reached a postoperative air-bone gap of 30 dB or less and the median air conduction hearing threshold was 29 dB; in 60.9% of all cases, hearing was postoperatively improved. The recurrence rate was 16.2% in a mean postoperative follow-up 8.5 years. Altogether, 48 ears (36.9%) underwent revision surgery. The complication rate was 3.1% and involved only minor complications. CONCLUSION The inside-out technique allows a safe removal of cholesteatoma from the epitympanum toward the mastoid with a single-stage reconstruction of the ossicular chain. For this reason we support our individual approach, which allows creation of the smallest possible cavity for the size of the cholesteatoma. Our results confirm that the inside-out technique is effective in the treatment of pediatric cholesteatoma.

Coronary artery stents: influence of adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction on image quality using 64-HDCT

OBJECTIVE: The assessment of coronary stents with present-generation 64-detector row computed tomography (HDCT) scanners is limited by image noise and blooming artefacts. We evaluated the performance of adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) for noise reduction in coronary stent imaging with HDCT. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 50 stents of 28 patients (mean age 64 ± 10 years) undergoing coronary CT angiography (CCTA) on an HDCT scanner the mean in-stent luminal diameter, stent length, image quality, in-stent contrast attenuation, and image noise were assessed. Studies were reconstructed using filtered back projection (FBP) and ASIR-FBP composites. ASIR resulted in reduced image noise vs. FBP (P < 0.0001). Two readers graded the CCTA stent image quality on a 4-point Likert scale and determined the proportion of interpretable stent segments. The best image quality for all clinical images was obtained with 40 and 60% ASIR with significantly larger luminal area visualization compared with FBP (+42.1 ± 5.4% with 100% ASIR vs. FBP alone; P < 0.0001) while the stent length was decreased (-4.7 ± 0.9%,

ing 40 and 60% ASIR incrementally improves intra-stent luminal area, diameter visualization, and image quality compared with FBP reconstruction.

Predictive Margins and Marginal Effects in Stata

Tables of estimated regression coefficients, usually accompanied by additional information such as standard errors, t-statistics, p-values, confidence intervals or significance stars, have long been the preferred way of communicating results from statistical models. In recent years, however, the limits of this form of exposition have been increasingly recognized. For example, interpretation of regression tables can be very challenging in the presence of complications such as interaction effects, categorical variables, or nonlinear functional forms. Furthermore, while these issues might still be manageable in the case of linear regression, interpretational difficulties can be overwhelming in nonlinear models such as logistic regression. To facilitate sensible interpretation of such models it is often necessary to compute additional results such as marginal effects, predictive margins, or contrasts. Moreover, smart graphical displays of results can be very valuable in making complex relations accessible. A number of helpful commands geared at supporting these tasks have been recently introduced in Stata, making elaborate interpretation and communication of regression results possible without much extra effort. Examples of such commands are -margins-, -contrasts-, and -marginsplot-. In my talk, I will discuss the capabilities of these commands and present a range of examples illustrating their use.

Survey estimation and marginal effects in Stata

Stata is a general purpose software package that has become popular among various disciplines such as epidemiology, economics, or social sciences. Users like Stata for its scientific approach, its robustness and reliability, and the ease with which its functionality can be extended by user written programs. In this talk I will first give a brief overview of the functionality of Stata and then discuss two specific features: survey estimation and predictive margins/marginal effects. Most surveys are based on complex samples that contain multiple sampling stages, are stratified or clustered, and feature unequal selection probabilities. Standard estimators can produce misleading results in such samples unless the peculiarities of the sampling plan are taken into account. Stata offers survey statistics for complex samples for a wide variety of estimators and supports several variance estimation procedures such as linearization, jackknife, and balanced repeated replication (see Kreuter and Valliant, 2007, Stata Journal 7: 1-21). In the talk I will illustrate these features using applied examples and I will also show how user written commands can be adapted to support complex samples. Complex can also be the models we fit to our data, making it difficult to interpret them, especially in case of nonlinear or non-additive models (Mood, 2010, European Sociological Review 26: 67-82). Stata provides a number of highly useful commands to make results of such models accessible by computing and displaying predictive margins and marginal effects. In my talk I will discuss these commands provide various examples demonstrating their use.

Safety of thrombolysis in stroke mimics: results from a multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Intravenous thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke is beneficial within 4.5 hours of symptom onset, but the effect rapidly decreases over time, necessitating quick diagnostic in-hospital work-up. Initial time strain occasionally results in treatment of patients with an alternate diagnosis (stroke mimics). We investigated whether intravenous thrombolysis is safe in these patients. METHODS In this multicenter observational cohort study containing 5581 consecutive patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis, we determined the frequency and the clinical characteristics of stroke mimics. For safety, we compared the symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II [ECASS-II] definition) rate of stroke mimics with ischemic strokes. RESULTS One hundred stroke mimics were identified, resulting in a frequency of 1.8% (95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.2). Patients with a stroke mimic were younger, more often female, and had fewer risk factors except smoking and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack. The symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage rate in stroke mimics was 1.0% (95% confidence interval, 0.0-5.0) compared with 7.9% (95% confidence interval, 7.2-8.7) in ischemic strokes. CONCLUSIONS In experienced stroke centers, among patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis, only a few had a final diagnosis other than stroke. The complication rate in these stroke mimics was low.