Monitoring liquidity risk at BPI GA

Field lab: Business project

A new credit monitoring framework for agents' networks

The purpose of this work is to develop a practicable approach for Telecom firms to manage the credit risk exposition to their commercial agents’ network. Particularly it will try to approach the problem of credit concession to clients’ from a corporation perspective and explore the particular scenario of agents that are part of the commercial chain of the corporation and therefore are not end-users. The agents’ network that served as a model for the presented study is composed by companies that, at the same time, are both clients and suppliers of the Telecommunication Company. In that sense the credit exposition analysis must took into consideration all financial fluxes, both inbound and outbound. The current strain on the Financial Sector in Portugal, and other peripheral European economies, combined with the high leverage situation of most companies, generates an environment prone to credit default risk. Due to these circumstances managing credit risk exposure is becoming increasingly a critical function for every company Financial Department. The approach designed in the current study combined two traditional risk monitoring tools: credit risk scoring and credit limitation policies. The objective was to design a new credit monitoring framework that is more flexible, uses both external and internal relationship history to assess risk and takes into consideration commercial objectives inside the agents’ network. Although not explored at length, the blueprint of a Credit Governance model was created for implementing the new credit monitoring framework inside the telecom firm. The Telecom Company that served as a model for the present work decided to implement the new Credit Monitoring framework after this was presented to its Executive Commission.

Assessment of NDVI, land surface temperature and precipitation anomalies for drought monitoring in Bayankhongor province, Mongolia

During the last decade Mongolia’s region was characterized by a rapid increase of both severity and frequency of drought events, leading to pasture reduction. Drought monitoring and assessment plays an important role in the region’s early warning systems as a way to mitigate the negative impacts in social, economic and environmental sectors. Nowadays it is possible to access information related to the hydrologic cycle through remote sensing, which provides a continuous monitoring of variables over very large areas where the weather stations are sparse. The present thesis aimed to explore the possibility of using NDVI as a potential drought indicator by studying anomaly patterns and correlations with other two climate variables, LST and precipitation. The study covered the growing season (March to September) of a fifteen year period, between 2000 and 2014, for Bayankhongor province in southwest Mongolia. The datasets used were MODIS NDVI, LST and TRMM Precipitation, which processing and analysis was supported by QGIS software and Python programming language. Monthly anomaly correlations between NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation were generated as well as temporal correlations for the growing season for known drought years (2001, 2002 and 2009). The results show that the three variables follow a seasonal pattern expected for a northern hemisphere region, with occurrence of the rainy season in the summer months. The values of both NDVI and precipitation are remarkably low while LST values are high, which is explained by the region’s climate and ecosystems. The NDVI average, generally, reached higher values with high precipitation values and low LST values. The year of 2001 was the driest year of the time-series, while 2003 was the wet year with healthier vegetation. Monthly correlations registered weak results with low significance, with exception of NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation correlations for June, July and August of 2002. The temporal correlations for the growing season also revealed weak results. The overall relationship between the variables anomalies showed weak correlation results with low significance, which suggests that an accurate answer for predicting drought using the relation between NDVI, LST and Precipitation cannot be given. Additional research should take place in order to achieve more conclusive results. However the NDVI anomaly images show that NDVI is a suitable drought index for Bayankhongor province.

Advancing tendon regeneration through the development of bio-stimulating tissue engineering approaches

Tendon tissue engineering (TE) requires tailoring scaffolds designs and properties to the anatomical and functional requirements of tendons located in different regions of the body. Cell sourcing is also of utmost importance as tendon cells are scarce. Recently, we have found that it is possible to direct the tenogenic differentiation of Amniotic fluid and Adipose tissue derived stem cells (hAFSCs and hASCs), and also that there are hASCs subpopulations that might be more prone to tenogenic differentiation. Nevertheless, biochemical stimulation may not be enough to develop functional TE substitutes for a tissue that is known to be highly dependent on mechanical loading.

Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Self-monitoring of freeze–thaw damage using triphasic electric conductive concrete

The effect of freeze–thaw cycles on concrete is of great importance for durability evaluation of concrete structures in cold regions. In this paper, damage accumulation was studied by following the fractional change of impedance (FCI) with number of freeze–thaw cycles (N). The nano-carbon black (NCB), carbon fiber (CF) and steel fiber (SF) were added to plain concrete to produce the triphasic electrical conductive (TEC) and ductile concrete. The effects of NCB, CF and SF on the compressive strength, flexural properties, electrical impedance were investigated. The concrete beams with different dosages of conductive materials were studied for FCI, N and mass loss (ML), the relationship between FCI and N of conductive concrete can be well defined by a first order exponential decay curve. It is noted that this nondestructive and sensitive real-time testing method is meaningful for evaluating of freeze–thaw damage in concrete.

FPGA field oriented control of an axial flux motor-in-wheel

This paper presents the design and the prototype implementation of a three-phase power inverter developed to drive a motor-in-wheel. The control system is implemented in a FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) device. The paper describes the Field Oriented Control (FOC) algorithm and the Space Vector Modulation (SVM) technique that were implemented. The control platform uses a Spartan-3E FPGA board, programmed with Verilog language. Simulation and experimental results are presented to validate the developed system operation under different load conditions. Finally are presented conclusions based on the experimental results.

Continuous monitoring of concrete mechanical properties since an early age to support construction phasing

The assessment of concrete mechanical properties during construction of concrete structures is of paramount importance for many intrinsic operations. However many of the available non-destructive methods for mechanical properties have limitations for use in construction sites. One of such methodologies is EMM-ARM, which is a variant of classic resonant frequency methods. This paper aims to demonstrate the efforts towards in-situ applicability of EMMARM, as to provide real-time information about concrete mechanical properties such as E-modulus and compressive strength. To achieve the aforementioned objective, a set of adaptations to the method have been successfully implemented and tested: (i) the reduction of the beam span; (ii) the use of a different mould material and (iii) a new support system for the beams. Based on these adaptations, a reusable mould was designed to enable easier systematic use of EMMARM. A pilot test was successfully performed under in-situ conditions during a bridge construction.

Innovative method for the continuous monitoring of concrete viscoelastic properties since early ages: concept and pilot experiments

The experimental evaluation of viscoelastic properties of concrete is traditionally made upon creep tests that consist in the application of sustained loads either in compression or in tension. This kind of testing demands for specially devised rigs and requires careful monitoring of the evolution of strains, whereas assuring proper load constancy. The characterization of creep behaviour at early ages offers additional challenges due to the strong variations in viscoelastic behaviour of concrete during such stages, demanding for several testing ages to be assessed. The present research work aims to assist in reducing efforts for continuous assessment of viscoelastic properties of concrete at early ages, by application of a dynamic testing technique inspired in methodologies used in polymer science: Dynamic Mechanical Analyses. This paper briefly explains the principles of the proposed methodology and exhibits the first results obtained in a pilot application. The results are promising enough to encourage further developments.

Monitoring the early stiffness development in epoxy adhesives for structural strengthening

The present work aimed to assess the early-age evolution of E-modulus of epoxy adhesives used for Fibre-Reinforced Polymer (FRP) strengthening applications. The study involved adapting an existing technique devised for continuous monitoring of concrete stiffness since casting, called EMM-ARM (Elasticity Modulus Measurement through Ambient Response Method) for evaluation of epoxy stiffness. Furthermore, monotonic tensile tests according to ISO standards and cyclic tensile tests were carried out at several ages. A comparison between the obtained results was performed in order to better understand the performance of the several techniques in the assessment of stiffness of epoxy resins. When compared to the other methodologies, the method for calculation of E-modulus recommended by ISO standard led to lower values, since in the considered strain interval, the adhesive had a non-linear stress–strain relationship. The EMM-ARM technique revealed its capability in clearly identifying the hardening kinetics of epoxy adhesives, measuring the material stiffness growth during the entire curing period. At very early ages the values of Young׳s modulus obtained with quasi-static tests were lower than the values collected by EMM-ARM, due to the fact that epoxy resin exhibited a significant visco-elastic behaviour.

Experimental and numerical approaches for structural assessment in new footbridge designs (SFRSCC–GFPR hybrid structure)

Within the civil engineering field, the use of the Finite Element Method has acquired a significant importance, since numerical simulations have been employed in a broad field, which encloses the design, analysis and prediction of the structural behaviour of constructions and infrastructures. Nevertheless, these mathematical simulations can only be useful if all the mechanical properties of the materials, boundary conditions and damages are properly modelled. Therefore, it is required not only experimental data (static and/or dynamic tests) to provide references parameters, but also robust calibration methods able to model damage or other special structural conditions. The present paper addresses the model calibration of a footbridge bridge tested with static loads and ambient vibrations. Damage assessment was also carried out based on a hybrid numerical procedure, which combines discrete damage functions with sets of piecewise linear damage functions. Results from the model calibration shows that the model reproduces with good accuracy the experimental behaviour of the bridge.

Interdisciplinary knowledge transfer and technological applications for assessment, strengthening and monitoring of timber structures in Europe

COST (European Co-operation in the field of scientific and technical research) is the longest running framework for research co-operation iri Europe, having been established in 1971 by a Ministerial Conference attended by Ministers for Science and Technology from 19 countries. Today COST is used by the scientific communities of 35 European countries to cooperate in exchanging knowledge and technology developed within research projects supported by national or European funds. The main objective of COST is to contribute to the realization of the European Research Área (ERA) anticipating and complementing the activities of the' Framework Programmes, constituting a "bridge" towards the scientific communities of emerging countries, increasing the mobility of researchers across Europe and fostering the establishment of "Networks of Excelience". Another essential objective is the knowledge transfer between the scientific soc'iety and industry. It is widely acknowledged that European scientific performance in relation to investment in science is excellent but technological and commercial performance has steadily worsened. The present paper discusses how the COST Action's instruments, from training schools to short scientific missions and workshops have been used within The COST ACTION FP11O1 Assessment, Reinforcement and Monitoring of Timber Structures to achieve such objectives.

Numerical simulation of the punching shear behaviour of self-compacting fibre reinforced flat slabs

This paper presents the numerical simulations of the punching behaviour of centrally loaded steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete (SFRSCC) flat slabs. Eight half scaled slabs reinforced with different content of hooked-end steel fibres (0, 60, 75 and 90 kg/m3) and concrete strengths of 50 and 70 MPa were tested and numerically modelled. Moreover, a total of 54 three-point bending tests were carried out to assess the post-cracking flexural tensile strength. All the slabs had a relatively high conventional flexural reinforcement in order to promote the occurrence of punching failure mode. Neither of the slabs had any type of specific shear reinforcement rather than the contribution of the steel fibres. The numerical simulations were performed according to the Reissner-Mindlin theory under the finite element method framework. Regarding the classic formulation of the Reissner-Mindlin theory, in order to simulate the progressive damage induced by cracking, the shell element is discretized into layers, being assumed a plane stress state in each layer. The numerical results are, then, compared with the experimental ones and it is possible to notice that they accurately predict the experimental force-deflection relationship. The type of failure observed experimentally was also predicted in the numerical simulations.

Assessment of the effectiveness of steel fibre reinforcement for the punching resistance of flat slabs by experimental research and design approach

The present paper deals with the experimental assessment of the effectiveness of steel fibre reinforcement in terms of punching resistance of centrically loaded flat slabs, and to the development of an analytical model capable of predicting the punching behaviour of this type of structures. For this purpose, eight slabs of 2550 x 2550 x 150 mm3 dimensions were tested up to failure, by investigating the influence of the content of steel fibres (0, 60, 75 and 90 kg/m3) and concrete strength class (50 and 70 MPa). Two reference slabs without fibre reinforcement, one for each concrete strength class, and one slab for each fibre content and each strength class compose the experimental program. All slabs were flexurally reinforced with a grid of ribbed steel bars in a percentage to assure punching failure mode for the reference slabs. Hooked ends steel fibres provided the unique shear reinforcement. The results have revealed that steel fibres are very effective in converting brittle punching failure into ductile flexural failure, by increasing both the ultimate load and deflection, as long as adequate fibre reinforcement is assured. An analytical model was developed based on the most recent concepts proposed by the fib Mode Code 2010 for predicting the punching resistance of flat slabs and for the characterization of the behaviour of fibre reinforced concrete. The most refined version of this model was capable of predicting the punching resistance of the tested slabs with excellent accuracy and coefficient of variation of about 5%.