Testing for Hidden Information and Action in Automobile Insurance Market

I test the presence of hidden information and action in the automobile insurance market using a data set from several Colombian insurers. To identify the presence of hidden information I find a common knowledge variable providing information on policyholder s risk type which is related to both experienced risk and insurance demand and that was excluded from the pricing mechanism. Such unused variable is the record of policyholder s traffic offenses. I find evidence of adverse selection in six of the nine insurance companies for which the test is performed. From the point of view of hidden action I develop a dynamic model of effort in accident prevention given an insurance contract with bonus experience rating scheme and I show that individual accident probability decreases with previous accidents. This result brings a testable implication for the empirical identification of hidden action and based on that result I estimate an econometric model of the time spans between the purchase of the insurance and the first claim, between the first claim and the second one, and so on. I find strong evidence on the existence of unobserved heterogeneity that deceives the testable implication. Once the unobserved heterogeneity is controlled, I find conclusive statistical grounds supporting the presence of moral hazard in the Colombian insurance market.

Loan sales under asymmetric information

Loans are illiquid assets that can be sold in a secondary market even that buyers have no certainty about their quality. I study a model in which a lender has access to new investment opportunities when all her assets are illiquid. To raise funds, the lender may either borrow using her assets as collateral, or she can sell them in a secondary market. Given asymmetric information about assets quality, the lender cannot recover the total value of her assets. There is then a role for the government to correct the information problem using fiscal tools.

Automatic generation of active coordinates for quantum dynamics calculations: application to the dynamics of benzene photochemistry

A new practical method to generate a subspace of active coordinates for quantum dynamics calculations is presented. These reduced coordinates are obtained as the normal modes of an analytical quadratic representation of the energy difference between excited and ground states within the complete active space self-consistent field method. At the Franck-Condon point, the largest negative eigenvalues of this Hessian correspond to the photoactive modes: those that reduce the energy difference and lead to the conical intersection; eigenvalues close to 0 correspond to bath modes, while modes with large positive eigenvalues are photoinactive vibrations, which increase the energy difference. The efficacy of quantum dynamics run in the subspace of the photoactive modes is illustrated with the photochemistry of benzene, where theoretical simulations are designed to assist optimal control experiments

One- and two-center energy components in the atoms in molecules theory

The energy decomposition scheme proposed in a recent paper has been realized by performing numerical integrations. The sample calculations carried out for some simple molecules show excellent agreement with the chemical picture of molecules, indicating that such an energy decomposition analysis can be useful from the point of view of connecting quantum mechanics with the genuine chemical concepts

A quantum molecular similarity analysis of changes in molecular electron density caused by basis set flotation and electric field application

Quantum molecular similarity (QMS) techniques are used to assess the response of the electron density of various small molecules to application of a static, uniform electric field. Likewise, QMS is used to analyze the changes in electron density generated by the process of floating a basis set. The results obtained show an interrelation between the floating process, the optimum geometry, and the presence of an external field. Cases involving the Le Chatelier principle are discussed, and an insight on the changes of bond critical point properties, self-similarity values and density differences is performed

A comparative analysis by means of quantum molecular similarity measures of density distributions derived from conventional ab initio and density functional methods

A procedure based on quantum molecular similarity measures (QMSM) has been used to compare electron densities obtained from conventional ab initio and density functional methodologies at their respective optimized geometries. This method has been applied to a series of small molecules which have experimentally known properties and molecular bonds of diverse degrees of ionicity and covalency. Results show that in most cases the electron densities obtained from density functional methodologies are of a similar quality than post-Hartree-Fock generalized densities. For molecules where Hartree-Fock methodology yields erroneous results, the density functional methodology is shown to yield usually more accurate densities than those provided by the second order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory

Electronic couplings and on-site energies for hole transfer in DNA: systematic quantum mechanical/molecular dynamic study

The electron hole transfer (HT) properties of DNA are substantially affected by thermal fluctuations of the π stack structure. Depending on the mutual position of neighboring nucleobases, electronic coupling V may change by several orders of magnitude. In the present paper, we report the results of systematic QM/molecular dynamic (MD) calculations of the electronic couplings and on-site energies for the hole transfer. Based on 15 ns MD trajectories for several DNA oligomers, we calculate the average coupling squares 〈 V2 〉 and the energies of basepair triplets X G+ Y and X A+ Y, where X, Y=G, A, T, and C. For each of the 32 systems, 15 000 conformations separated by 1 ps are considered. The three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush method is used to derive electronic couplings for HT between neighboring basepairs. The adiabatic energies and dipole moment matrix elements are computed within the INDO/S method. We compare the rms values of V with the couplings estimated for the idealized B -DNA structure and show that in several important cases the couplings calculated for the idealized B -DNA structure are considerably underestimated. The rms values for intrastrand couplings G-G, A-A, G-A, and A-G are found to be similar, ∼0.07 eV, while the interstrand couplings are quite different. The energies of hole states G+ and A+ in the stack depend on the nature of the neighboring pairs. The X G+ Y are by 0.5 eV more stable than X A+ Y. The thermal fluctuations of the DNA structure facilitate the HT process from guanine to adenine. The tabulated couplings and on-site energies can be used as reference parameters in theoretical and computational studies of HT processes in DNA

Análisis de adopción, actividad y participación en aplicaciones SIG Libres: un estudio sobre GRASS, Quantum GIS y gvSIG basado en indicadores

A través del análisis de información pública del proyecto se han elaborado una serie de indicadores que permiten comparar el grado de adopción, actividad y participación en proyectos de software libre. Estos indicadores han sido desarrollados en base a información obtenida desde herramientas habituales en los proyectos (listas de correo, repositorios de código, etc) y que nos permiten reconstruir los patrones de comportamiento en los mismos

Practical applications of quantum molecular similarity measures (QMSM): programs and examples

Es descriu l'aproximació de Capes Atòmiques dins de la teoria de la Semblança Molecular Quàntica. Partint només de dades teòriques, s'ha trobat una relació entre estructura molecular i activitat biològica per a diversos conjunts de molècules. Es descriuen els aspectes teòrics de la Semblança Molecular Quàntica i alguns exemples d'aplicació

El mètode APT (Auto Adjusting Perturbation Theory) de diagonalització de matrius

Es presenta un nou algorisme per a la diagonalització de matrius amb diagonal dominant. Es mostra la seva eficàcia en el tractament de matrius no simètriques, amb elements definits sobre el cos complex i, fins i tot, de grans dimensions. Es posa de manifest la senzillesa del mètode així com la facilitat d'implementació en forma de codi de programació. Es comenten els seus avantatges i característiques limitants, així com algunes de les millores que es poden implementar. Finalment, es mostren alguns exemples numèrics

Funcions densitat i semblança molecular quàntica: nous desenvolupaments i aplicacions

La present tesi, tot i que emmarcada dins de la teoria de les Mesures Semblança Molecular Quántica (MQSM), es deriva en tres àmbits clarament definits: - La creació de Contorns Moleculars de IsoDensitat Electrònica (MIDCOs, de l'anglès Molecular IsoDensity COntours) a partir de densitats electròniques ajustades. - El desenvolupament d'un mètode de sobreposició molecular, alternatiu a la regla de la màxima semblança. - Relacions Quantitatives Estructura-Activitat (QSAR, de l'anglès Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships). L'objectiu en el camp dels MIDCOs és l'aplicació de funcions densitat ajustades, ideades inicialment per a abaratir els càlculs de MQSM, per a l'obtenció de MIDCOs. Així, es realitza un estudi gràfic comparatiu entre diferents funcions densitat ajustades a diferents bases amb densitats obtingudes de càlculs duts a terme a nivells ab initio. D'aquesta manera, l'analogia visual entre les funcions ajustades i les ab initio obtinguda en el ventall de representacions de densitat obtingudes, i juntament amb els valors de les mesures de semblança obtinguts prèviament, totalment comparables, fonamenta l'ús d'aquestes funcions ajustades. Més enllà del propòsit inicial, es van realitzar dos estudis complementaris a la simple representació de densitats, i són l'anàlisi de curvatura i l'extensió a macromolècules. La primera observació correspon a comprovar no només la semblança dels MIDCOs, sinó la coherència del seu comportament a nivell de curvatura, podent-se així observar punts d'inflexió en la representació de densitats i veure gràficament aquelles zones on la densitat és còncava o convexa. Aquest primer estudi revela que tant les densitats ajustades com les calculades a nivell ab initio es comporten de manera totalment anàloga. En la segona part d'aquest treball es va poder estendre el mètode a molècules més grans, de fins uns 2500 àtoms. Finalment, s'aplica part de la filosofia del MEDLA. Sabent que la densitat electrònica decau ràpidament al allunyar-se dels nuclis, el càlcul d'aquesta pot ser obviat a distàncies grans d'aquests. D'aquesta manera es va proposar particionar l'espai, i calcular tan sols les funcions ajustades de cada àtom tan sols en una regió petita, envoltant l'àtom en qüestió. Duent a terme aquest procés, es disminueix el temps de càlcul i el procés esdevé lineal amb nombre d'àtoms presents en la molècula tractada. En el tema dedicat a la sobreposició molecular es tracta la creació d'un algorisme, així com la seva implementació en forma de programa, batejat Topo-Geometrical Superposition Algorithm (TGSA), d'un mètode que proporcionés aquells alineaments que coincideixen amb la intuïció química. El resultat és un programa informàtic, codificat en Fortran 90, el qual alinea les molècules per parelles considerant tan sols nombres i distàncies atòmiques. La total absència de paràmetres teòrics permet desenvolupar un mètode de sobreposició molecular general, que proporcioni una sobreposició intuïtiva, i també de forma rellevant, de manera ràpida i amb poca intervenció de l'usuari. L'ús màxim del TGSA s'ha dedicat a calcular semblances per al seu ús posterior en QSAR, les quals majoritàriament no corresponen al valor que s'obtindria d'emprar la regla de la màxima semblança, sobretot si hi ha àtoms pesats en joc. Finalment, en l'últim tema, dedicat a la Semblança Quàntica en el marc del QSAR, es tracten tres aspectes diferents: - Ús de matrius de semblança. Aquí intervé l'anomenada matriu de semblança, calculada a partir de les semblances per parelles d'entre un conjunt de molècules. Aquesta matriu és emprada posteriorment, degudament tractada, com a font de descriptors moleculars per a estudis QSAR. Dins d'aquest àmbit s'han fet diversos estudis de correlació d'interès farmacològic, toxicològic, així com de diverses propietats físiques. - Aplicació de l'energia d'interacció electró-electró, assimilat com a una forma d'autosemblança. Aquesta modesta contribució consisteix breument en prendre el valor d'aquesta magnitud, i per analogia amb la notació de l'autosemblança molecular quàntica, assimilar-la com a cas particular de d'aquesta mesura. Aquesta energia d'interacció s'obté fàcilment a partir de programari mecanoquàntic, i esdevé ideal per a fer un primer estudi preliminar de correlació, on s'utilitza aquesta magnitud com a únic descriptor. - Càlcul d'autosemblances, on la densitat ha estat modificada per a augmentar el paper d'un substituent. Treballs previs amb densitats de fragments, tot i donar molt bons resultats, manquen de cert rigor conceptual en aïllar un fragment, suposadament responsable de l'activitat molecular, de la totalitat de l'estructura molecular, tot i que les densitats associades a aquest fragment ja difereixen degut a pertànyer a esquelets amb diferents substitucions. Un procediment per a omplir aquest buit que deixa la simple separació del fragment, considerant així la totalitat de la molècula (calcular-ne l'autosemblança), però evitant al mateix temps valors d'autosemblança no desitjats provocats per àtoms pesats, és l'ús de densitats de Forats de fermi, els quals es troben definits al voltant del fragment d'interès. Aquest procediment modifica la densitat de manera que es troba majoritàriament concentrada a la regió d'interès, però alhora permet obtenir una funció densitat, la qual es comporta matemàticament igual que la densitat electrònica regular, podent-se així incorporar dins del marc de la semblança molecular. Les autosemblances calculades amb aquesta metodologia han portat a bones correlacions amb àcids aromàtics substituïts, podent així donar una explicació al seu comportament. Des d'un altre punt de vista, també s'han fet contribucions conceptuals. S'ha implementat una nova mesura de semblança, la d'energia cinètica, la qual consisteix en prendre la recentment desenvolupada funció densitat d'energia cinètica, la qual al comportar-se matemàticament igual a les densitats electròniques regulars, s'ha incorporat en el marc de la semblança. A partir d'aquesta mesura s'han obtingut models QSAR satisfactoris per diferents conjunts moleculars. Dins de l'aspecte del tractament de les matrius de semblança s'ha implementat l'anomenada transformació estocàstica com a alternativa a l'ús de l'índex Carbó. Aquesta transformació de la matriu de semblança permet obtenir una nova matriu no simètrica, la qual pot ser posteriorment tractada per a construir models QSAR.

The calculation of accurate normal coordinates I: general theory, and application to methane

The calculation of accurate and reliable vibrational potential functions and normal co-ordinates is discussed, for such simple polyatomic molecules as it may be possible. Such calculations should be corrected for the effects of anharmonicity and of resonance interactions between the vibrational states, and should be fitted to all the available information on all isotopic species: particularly the vibrational frequencies, Coriolis zeta constants and centrifugal distortion constants. The difficulties of making these corrections, and of making use of the observed data are reviewed. A programme for the Ferranti Mercury Computer is described by means of which harmonic vibration frequencies and normal co-ordinate vectors, zeta factors and centrifugal distortion constants can be calculated, from a given force field and from given G-matrix elements, etc. The programme has been used on up to 5 × 5 secular equations for which a single calculation and output of results takes approximately l min; it can readily be extended to larger determinants. The best methods of using such a programme and the possibility of reversing the direction of calculation are discussed. The methods are applied to calculating the best possible vibrational potential function for the methane molecule, making use of all the observed data.

ASYM20: a program for force constant and normal coordinate calculations, with a critical review of the theory involved

The theory of harmonic force constant refinement calculations is reviewed, and a general-purpose program for force constant and normal coordinate calculations is described. The program, called ASYM20. is available through Quantum Chemistry Program Exchange. It will work on molecules of any symmetry containing up to 20 atoms and will produce results on a series of isotopomers as desired. The vibrational secular equations are solved in either nonredundant valence internal coordinates or symmetry coordinates. As well as calculating the (harmonic) vibrational wavenumbers and normal coordinates, the program will calculate centrifugal distortion constants, Coriolis zeta constants, harmonic contributions to the α′s. root-mean-square amplitudes of vibration, and other quantities related to gas electron-diffraction studies and thermodynamic properties. The program will work in either a predict mode, in which it calculates results from an input force field, or in a refine mode, in which it refines an input force field by least squares to fit observed data on the quantities mentioned above. Predicate values of the force constants may be included in the data set for a least-squares refinement. The program is written in FORTRAN for use on a PC or a mainframe computer. Operation is mainly controlled by steering indices in the input data file, but some interactive control is also implemented.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reaction of silylene with oxygen

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with O-2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second order rate constants at 10 Torr were fitted to the Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-11.08 +/- 0.04) + (1.57 +/- 0.32 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln10 The decrease in rate constant values with increasing temperature, although systematic is very small. The rate constants showed slight increases in value with pressure at each temperature, but this was scarcely beyond experimental uncertainty. From estimates of Lennard-Jones collision rates, this reaction is occurring at ca. 1 in 20 collisions, almost independent of pressure and temperature. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level backed further by multi-configurational (MC) SCF calculations, augmented by second order perturbation theory (MRMP2), support a mechanism in which the initial adduct, H2SiOO, formed in the triplet state (T), undergoes intersystem crossing to the more stable singlet state (S) prior to further low energy isomerisation processes leading, via a sequence of steps, ultimately to dissociation products of which the lowest energy pair are H2O + SiO. The decomposition of the intermediate cyclo-siladioxirane, via O-O bond fission, plays an important role in the overall process. The bottleneck for the overall process appears to be the T -> S process in H2SiOO. This process has a small spin orbit coupling matrix element, consistent with an estimate of its rate constant of 1 x 10(9) s(-1) obtained with the aid of RRKM theory. This interpretation preserves the idea that, as in its reactions in general, SiH2 initially reacts at the encounter rate with O-2. The low values for the secondary reaction barriers on the potential energy surface account for the lack of an observed pressure dependence. Some comparisons are drawn with the reactions of CH2 + O-2 and SiCl2 + O-2.

Gas phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reactions of silylene with the methylsilanes. Absolute rate constants, temperature dependences, RRKM modelling and potential energy surfaces

Time resolved studies of silylene, SiH2, generated by the 193 nm laser. ash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate coefficients for its bimolecular reactions with methyl-, dimethyl- and trimethyl-silanes in the gas phase. The reactions were studied over the pressure range 3 - 100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 300 - 625 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found for SiH2 + MeSiH3 ( 485 and 602 K) and for SiH2 + Me2SiH2 ( 600 K). The high pressure rate constants gave the following Arrhenius parameters: [GRAPHICS] These are consistent with fast, near to collision-controlled, association processes. RRKM modelling calculations are consistent with the observed pressure dependences ( and also the lack of them for SiH2 + Me3SiH). Ab initio calculations at both second order perturbation theory (MP2) and coupled cluster (CCSD(T)) levels, showed the presence of weakly-bound complexes along the reaction pathways. In the case of SiH2 + MeSiH3 two complexes, with different geometries, were obtained consistent with earlier studies of SiH2 + SiH4. These complexes were stabilised by methyl substitution in the substrate silane, but all had exceedingly low barriers to rearrangement to product disilanes. Although methyl groups in the substrate silane enhance the intrinsic SiH2 insertion rates, it is doubtful whether the intermediate complexes have a significant effect on the kinetics. A further calculation on the reaction MeSiH + SiH4 shows that the methyl substitution in the silylene should have a much more significant kinetic effect ( as observed in other studies).