Ethnic and religious polarization and social conflict

In this paper we examine the link between ethnic and religious polarization and conflict using interpersonal distances for ethnic and religious attitudes obtained from the World Values Survey. We use the Duclos et al (2004) polarization index. We measure conflict by means on an index of social unrest, as well as by the standard conflict onset or incidence based on a threshold number of deaths. Our results show that taking distances into account significantly improves the quality of the fit. Our measure of polarization outperforms the measure used by Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) and the fractionalization index. We also obtain that both ethnic and religious polarization are significant in explaining conflict. The results improve when we use an indicator of social unrest as the dependent variable.

What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

Ascertaining late-life depressive symptoms in Europe: an evaluation of the survey version of the EURO-D scale in 10 nations. The SHARE project.

The reported prevalence of late-life depressive symptoms varies widely between studies, a finding that might be attributed to cultural as well as methodological factors. The EURO-D scale was developed to allow valid comparison of prevalence and risk associations between European countries. This study used Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Rasch models to assess whether the goal of measurement invariance had been achieved; using EURO-D scale data collected in 10 European countries as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (n = 22,777). The results suggested a two-factor solution (Affective Suffering and Motivation) after Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in 9 of the 10 countries. With CFA, in all countries, the two-factor solution had better overall goodness-of-fit than the one-factor solution. However, only the Affective Suffering subscale was equivalent across countries, while the Motivation subscale was not. The Rasch model indicated that the EURO-D was a hierarchical scale. While the calibration pattern was similar across countries, between countries agreement in item calibrations was stronger for the items loading on the affective suffering than the motivation factor. In conclusion, there is evidence to support the EURO-D as either a uni-dimensional or bi-dimensional scale measure of depressive symptoms in late-life across European countries. The Affective Suffering sub-component had more robust cross-cultural validity than the Motivation sub-component.

Cross-talk between glutamate and potassium regulation at the astrocyte membrane

Astrocytes play a central role in the brain by regulating glutamate and extracellular potassium concentrations ([K+]0), both released by neurons into the extracellular space during neuronal activity. Glutamate uptake is driven by the inwardly directed sodium gradient across the astrocyte membrane and involves the influx of three sodium ions and one proton and the efflux of one K+ ion per glutamate molecule. The glutamate transport induced rise in intracellular sodium stimulates the Na+/K+-ATPase which leads to significant energetic costs in astrocytes. To evaluate how these two fundamental functions of astrocytes, namely glutamate transport and K+ buffering, which are directly associated with neuronal activity, coexist and if they influence each other, in this thesis work we examined different cellular parameters of astrocytes. We therefore investigated the impact of altered [K+]0 on glutamate transporter activity. To assess this question we measured intracellular sodium fluctuations in mouse primary cultured astrocytes using dynamic fluorescence imaging. We found that glutamate uptake was tightly modulated both in amplitude and kinetics by [K+]0. Elevated [K+]0 strongly decreased glutamate transporter activity, with significant consequences on the cells energy metabolism. To ultimately evaluate potential effects of [K+]0 and glutamate on the astrocyte mitochondrial energy production we extended these studies by investigating their impact on the cytosolic and mitochondrial pH. We found that both [K+],, and glutamate strongly influenced cytosolic and mitochondrial pH, but in opposite directions. The effect of a simultaneous application of K+ and glutamate, however, did not fit with the arithmetical sum of each individual effects, suggesting that an additional non¬linear process is involved. We also investigated the impact of [K+]0 and glutamate transport, respectively, on intracellular potassium concentrations ([K+]0 in cultured astrocytes by characterizing and applying a newly developed Insensitive fluorescent dye. We observed that [K+]i followed [K+]0 changes in a nearly proportional way and that glutamate superfusion caused a reversible, glutamate-concentration dependent drop of [K+],, Our study shows the powerful influence of [K+]u on glutamate capture. These findings have strong implications for our understanding of the tightly regulated interplay between astrocytes and neurons in situations where [K+]0 undergoes large activity-dependent fluctuations. However, depending on the extent of K+ versus glutamate extracellular rise, energy metabolism in astrocytes will be differently regulated. Moreover, the novel insights obtained during this thesis work help understanding some of the underlying processes that prevail in certain pathologies of central nervous system, such as epilepsy and stroke. These results will possibly provide a basis for the development of novel therapeutic strategies. -- Les astrocytes jouent un rôle central dans le cerveau en régulant les concentrations de potassium (K+) et de glutamate, qui sont relâchés par les neurones dans l'espace extracellulaire lorsque ceux- ci sont actifs. La capture par les astrocytes du glutamate est un processus secondairement actif qui implique l'influx d'ions sodium (Na+) et d'un proton, ainsi que l'efflux d'ions K+, ce processus entraîne un coût métabolique important. Nous avons évalué comment ces fonctions fondamentales des astrocytes, la régulation du glutamate et du K+ extracellulaire, qui sont directement associés à l'activité neuronale, coexistent et si elles interagissent, en examinant différents paramètres cellulaires. Dans ce projet de thèse nous avons évalué l'impact des modifications de la concentration de potassium extracellulaire ([K+],,) sur le transport du glutamate. Nous avons mesuré le transport du glutamate par le biais des fluctuations internes de Na+ grâce à un colorant fluorescent en utilisant de l'imagerie à fluorescence dynamique sur des cultures primaires d'astrocytes. Nous avons trouvé que la capture du glutamate était étroitement régulée par [K+]0 aussi bien dans son amplitude que dans sa cinétique. Par la suite, nous avons porté notre attention sur l'impact de [K+]0 et du glutamate sur le pH cytosolique et mitochondrial de l'astrocyte dans le but, in fine, d'évaluer les effets potentiels sur la production d'énergie par la mitochondrie. Nous avons trouvé qu'autant le K+ que le glutamate, de manière individuelle, influençaient fortement le pH, cependant dans des directions opposées. Leurs effets individuels, ne peuvent toutefois pas être additionnés ce qui suggère qu'un processus additionnel non-linéaire est impliqué. En appliquant une nouvelle approche pour suivre et quantifier la concentration intracellulaire de potassium ([K+]0 par imagerie à fluorescence, nous avons observé que [K+]i suivait les changements de [K+]0 de manière quasiment proportionnelle et que la superfusion de glutamate induisait un décroissement rapide et réversible de [K+]i, qui dépend de la concentration de glutamate. Notre étude démontre l'influence de [K+]0 sur la capture du glutamate. Ces résultats permettent d'améliorer notre compréhension de l'interaction entre astrocytes et neurones dans des situations où [K+]0 fluctue en fonction de l'activité neuronale. Cependant, en fonction de l'importance de l'augmentation extracellulaire du K+ versus le glutamate, le métabolisme énergétique des astrocytes va être régulé de manière différente. De plus, les informations nouvelles que nous avons obtenues durant ce travail de thèse nous aident à comprendre quelques- uns des processus sous-jacents qui prévalent dans certaines pathologies du système nerveux central, comme par exemple l'épilepsie ou l'accident vasculaire cérébral. Ces informations pourront être importantes à intégrer dans la cadre du développement de nouvelles stratégies thérapeutiques.

Non-characteristic half-lives in radioactive decay

Half-lives of radionuclides span more than 50 orders of magnitude. We characterize the probability distribution of this broad-range data set at the same time that explore a method for fitting power-laws and testing goodness-of-fit. It is found that the procedure proposed recently by Clauset et al. [SIAM Rev. 51, 661 (2009)] does not perform well as it rejects the power-law hypothesis even for power-law synthetic data. In contrast, we establish the existence of a power-law exponent with a value around 1.1 for the half-life density, which can be explained by the sharp relationship between decay rate and released energy, for different disintegration types. For the case of alpha emission, this relationship constitutes an original mechanism of power-law generation.

Apport de la systématique dans l'amélioration de la compréhension des systèmes de prise en compte des risques en entreprise

La gestion des risques est souvent appréhendée par l'utilisation de méthodes linéaires mettant l'accent sur des raisonnements de positionnement et de type causal : à tel événement correspond tel risque et telle conséquence. Une prise en compte des interrelations entre risques est souvent occultée et les risques sont rarement analysés dans leurs dynamiques et composantes non linéaires. Ce travail présente ce que les méthodes systémiques et notamment l'étude des systèmes complexes sont susceptibles d'apporter en matière de compréhension, de management et d'anticipation et de gestion des risques d'entreprise, tant sur le plan conceptuel que de matière appliquée. En partant des définitions relatives aux notions de systèmes et de risques dans différents domaines, ainsi que des méthodes qui sont utilisées pour maîtriser les risques, ce travail confronte cet ensemble à ce qu'apportent les approches d'analyse systémique et de modélisation des systèmes complexes. En mettant en évidence les effets parfois réducteurs des méthodes de prise en compte des risques en entreprise ainsi que les limitations des univers de risques dues, notamment, à des définitions mal adaptées, ce travail propose également, pour la Direction d'entreprise, une palette des outils et approches différentes, qui tiennent mieux compte de la complexité, pour gérer les risques, pour aligner stratégie et management des risques, ainsi que des méthodes d'analyse du niveau de maturité de l'entreprise en matière de gestion des risques. - Risk management is often assessed through linear methods which stress positioning and causal logical frameworks: to such events correspond such consequences and such risks accordingly. Consideration of the interrelationships between risks is often overlooked and risks are rarely analyzed in their dynamic and nonlinear components. This work shows what systemic methods, including the study of complex systems, are likely to bring to knowledge, management, anticipation of business risks, both on the conceptual and the practical sides. Based on the definitions of systems and risks in various areas, as well as methods used to manage risk, this work confronts these concepts with approaches of complex systems analysis and modeling. This work highlights the reducing effects of some business risk analysis methods as well as limitations of risk universes caused in particular by unsuitable definitions. As a result this work also provides chief officers with a range of different tools and approaches which allows them a better understanding of complexity and as such a gain in efficiency in their risk management practices. It results in a better fit between strategy and risk management. Ultimately the firm gains in its maturity of risk management.

Orthogonal higher order structure and confirmatory factor analysis of the French Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS-III).

According to the most widely accepted Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) model of intelligence measurement, each subtest score of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Adults (3rd ed.; WAIS-III) should reflect both 1st- and 2nd-order factors (i.e., 4 or 5 broad abilities and 1 general factor). To disentangle the contribution of each factor, we applied a Schmid-Leiman orthogonalization transformation (SLT) to the standardization data published in the French technical manual for the WAIS-III. Results showed that the general factor accounted for 63% of the common variance and that the specific contributions of the 1st-order factors were weak (4.7%-15.9%). We also addressed this issue by using confirmatory factor analysis. Results indicated that the bifactor model (with 1st-order group and general factors) better fit the data than did the traditional higher order structure. Models based on the CHC framework were also tested. Results indicated that a higher order CHC model showed a better fit than did the classical 4-factor model; however, the WAIS bifactor structure was the most adequate. We recommend that users do not discount the Full Scale IQ when interpreting the index scores of the WAIS-III because the general factor accounts for the bulk of the common variance in the French WAIS-III. The 4 index scores cannot be considered to reflect only broad ability because they include a strong contribution of the general factor.