Age-period-cohort effects in the incidence of hip fractures: political and economic events are coincident with changes in risk

Introduction: Healthcare improvements have allowed prevention but have also increased life expectancy, resulting in more people being at risk. Our aim was to analyse the separate effects of age, period and cohort on incidence rates by sex in Portugal, 2000–2008. Methods: From the National Hospital Discharge Register, we selected admissions (aged ≥49 years) with hip fractures (ICD9-CM, codes 820.x) caused by low/moderate trauma (falls from standing height or less), readmissions and bone cancer cases. We calculated person-years at risk using population data from Statistics Portugal. To identify period and cohort effects for all ages, we used an age–period–cohort model (1-year intervals) followed by generalised additive models with a negative binomial distribution of the observed incidence rates of hip fractures. Results: There were 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4 % women). Incidence rates increased exponentially with age for both sexes (age effect). Incidence rates fell after 2004 for women and were random for men (period effect). There was a general cohort effect similar in both sexes; risk of hip fracture altered from an increasing trend for those born before 1930 to a decreasing trend following that year. Risk alterations (not statistically significant) coincident with major political and economic change in the history of Portugal were observed around birth cohorts 1920 (stable–increasing), 1940 (decreasing–increasing) and 1950 (increasing–decreasing only among women). Conclusions: Hip fracture risk was higher for those born during major economically/politically unstable periods. Although bone quality reflects lifetime exposure, conditions at birth may determine future risk for hip fractures.

Islão transnacional e os fantasmas do colonialismo português

Este artigo examina a forma como as políticas colónias portuguesas de enquadramento do Islão na Guiné e em Moçambique evoluíram de uma representação do muçulmano como ameaça para uma imagem mais conciliadora, pela qual os muçulmanos poderiam ser potenciais aliados do poder português na guerra contra os movimentos nacionalistas. Sendo ambas as representações marcadas pela ambivalência, a primeira predominou até ao final da década de 50 e a segunda desenhou-se em meados dos anos 60, acompanhando o restante trajecto das guerras coloniais. As duas imagens corresponderam a diferentes formas de lidar com a dimensão transnacional do Islão e com o seu alegado impacto sobre o colonialismo português em África. O artigo analisa essas estratégias, abordando a participação que nelas teve a Igreja Católica, o aparelho central de poder e as suas ramificações locais nas colónias.

Health expenditures in the OECD: A political economy analysis using structural breaks

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Res Publica: Citizenship and Political Representation in Portugal, 1820-1926

The term res publica (literally “thing of the people”) was coined by the Romans to translate the Greek word politeia, which, as we know, referred to a political community organised in accordance with certain principles, amongst which the notion of the “good life” (as against exclusively private interests) was paramount. This ideal also came to be known as political virtue. To achieve it, it was necessary to combine the best of each “constitutional” type and avoid their worst aspects (tyranny, oligarchy and ochlocracy). Hence, the term acquired from the Greeks a sense of being a “mixed” and “balanced” system. Anyone that was entitled to citizenship could participate in the governance of the “public thing”. This implied the institutionalization of open debate and confrontation between interested parties as a way of achieving the consensus necessary to ensure that man the political animal, who fought with words and reason, prevailed over his “natural” counterpart. These premises lie at the heart of the project which is now being presented under the title of Res Publica: Citizenship and Political Representation in Portugal, 1820-1926. The fact that it is integrated into the centenary commemorations of the establishment of the Republic in Portugal is significant, as it was the idea of revolution – with its promise of rupture and change – that inspired it. However, it has also sought to explore events that could be considered the precursor of democratization in the history of Portugal, namely the vintista, setembrista and patuleia revolutions. It is true that the republican regime was opposed to the monarchic. However, although the thesis that monarchy would inevitably lead to tyranny had held sway for centuries, it had also been long believed that the monarchic system could be as “politically virtuous” as a republic (in the strict sense of the word) provided that power was not concentrated in the hands of a single individual. Moreover, various historical experiments had shown that republics could also degenerate into Caesarism and different kinds of despotism. Thus, when absolutism began to be overturned in continental Europe in the name of the natural rights of man and the new social pact theories, initiating the difficult process of (written) constitutionalization, the monarchic principle began to be qualified as a “monarchy hedged by republican institutions”, a situation in which not even the king was exempt from isonomy. This context justifies the time frame chosen here, as it captures the various changes and continuities that run through it. Having rejected the imperative mandate and the reinstatement of the model of corporative representation (which did not mean that, in new contexts, this might not be revived, or that the second chamber established by the Constitutional Charter of 1826 might not be given another lease of life), a new power base was convened: national sovereignty, a precept that would be shared by the monarchic constitutions of 1822 and 1838, and by the republican one of 1911. This followed the French example (manifested in the monarchic constitution of 1791 and in the Spanish constitution of 1812), as not even republicans entertained a tradition of republicanism based upon popular sovereignty. This enables us to better understand the rejection of direct democracy and universal suffrage, and also the long incapacitation (concerning voting and standing for office) of the vast body of “passive” citizens, justified by “enlightened”, property- and gender-based criteria. Although the republicans had promised in the propaganda phase to alter this situation, they ultimately failed to do so. Indeed, throughout the whole period under analysis, the realisation of the potential of national sovereignty was mediated above all by the individual citizen through his choice of representatives. However, this representation was indirect and took place at national level, in the hope that action would be motivated not by particular local interests but by the common good, as dictated by reason. This was considered the only way for the law to be virtuous, a requirement that was also manifested in the separation and balance of powers. As sovereignty was postulated as single and indivisible, so would be the nation that gave it soul and the State that embodied it. Although these characteristics were common to foreign paradigms of reference, in Portugal, the constitutionalization process also sought to nationalise the idea of Empire. Indeed, this had been the overriding purpose of the 1822 Constitution, and it persisted, even after the loss of Brazil, until decolonization. Then, the dream of a single nation stretching from the Minho to Timor finally came to an end.

Politicization of non-political events

Spatial analysis and social network analysis typically take into consideration social processes in specific contexts of geographical or network space. The research in political science increasingly strives to model heterogeneity and spatial dependence. To better understand and geographically model the relationship between “non-political” events, streaming data from social networks, and political climate was the primary objective of the current study. Geographic information systems (GIS) are useful tools in the organization and analysis of streaming data from social networks. In this study, geographical and statistical analysis were combined in order to define the temporal and spatial nature of the data eminating from the popular social network Twitter during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The study spans the entire globe because Twitter’s geotagging function, the fundamental data that makes this study possible, is not limited to a geographic area. By examining the public reactions to an inherenlty non-political event, this study serves to illuminate broader questions about social behavior and spatial dependence. From a practical perspective, the analyses demonstrate how the discussion of political topics fluсtuate according to football matches. Tableau and Rapidminer, in addition to a set basic statistical methods, were applied to find patterns in the social behavior in space and time in different geographic regions. It was found some insight into the relationship between an ostensibly non-political event – the World Cup - and public opinion transmitted by social media. The methodology could serve as a prototype for future studies and guide policy makers in governmental and non-governmental organizations in gauging the public opinion in certain geographic locations.

Correlates of intergenerational mobility and political violence

This work project aims at exploring the role of intergenerational immobility in political violence. A cross-country macro-level analysis is done where no significant results are found. Additionally, an individual micro-level analysis is done where intergenerational mobility (measured through a proxy variable) has a negative significant effect in political violence

Measuring the effects of price movements on private consumption

This paper studies how shocks in the prices of Food, Energy and Financial Assets affect private consumption using a VAR Model. Then, the total effects are broken into direct and indirect effects, using the coefficients taken from the previous model. We use quarterly data for the Portuguese economy from the last 20 years. We found that energy prices and financial assets have a strong connection with consumption, suggesting that the economy may be too exposed to shocks in these markets.

US fiscal dynamics in political perspective

Given the importance of fiscal balance for ensuring a sustainable fiscal policy, we conduct an empirical examination of fiscal dynamics in the United States in response to unsustainable budget deviations. We concentrate on the role of political factors, namely the Republican - Democrat presidential divide, in determining the fiscal response to budget disequilibria. Making use of an asymmetric cointegration framework, we explore politically motivated fiscal asymmetries in the US, from Eisenhower to Obama. We conclude that political factors such as the government’s political quadrant and the timing of elections are important determinants of the fiscal response to unsustainable budget deviations.

Work ethic and the legacies of political regimes

This article studies the cross-country differences in work ethic and claims that different political regimes transmitted different work ethics that still persist today. Using the World Values Survey and starting our political regime analysis in 1900, we find that Democratic regimes promote more effectively work relevance and competitiveness than Autocratic and Anocratic regimes, and that the political regime history of the country is more important than the present level of democracy. Moreover, we prove that this differences were transmitted through generations by parents, who optimally choose what work ethic to transmit taking into account their own values.

Expression analysis of the AtPHO1 gene family in Arabidopsis thaliana and the involvement of AtPHO1 in the regulation of stomatal movements

Résumé Le transfert du phosphate des racines vers les feuilles s'effectue par la voie du xylème. Il a été précédemment démontré que la protéine AtPHO1 était indispensable au transfert du phosphate dans les vaisseaux du xylème des racines chez la plante modèle Arabidopsis thaliana. Le séquençage et l'annotation du génome d'Arabidopsis ont permis d'identifier dix séquences présentant un niveau de similarité significatif avec le gène AtPHO1 et constituant une nouvelle famille de gène appelé la famille de AtPHO1. Basée sur une étude moléculaire et génétique, cette thèse apporte des éléments de réponse pour déterminer le rôle des membres de ia famille de AtPHO1 chez Arabidopsis, inconnue à ce jour. Dans un premier temps, une analyse bioinformatique des séquences protéiques des membres de la famille de AtPHO1 a révélé la présence dans leur région N-terminale d'un domaine nommé SPX. Ce dernier est conservé parmi de nombreuses protéines impliquées dans l'homéostasie du phosphate chez la levure, renforçant ainsi l'hypothèse que les membres de la famille de AtPHO1 auraient comme AtPHO1 un rôle dans l'équilibre du phosphate dans la plante. En parallèle, la localisation tissulaire de l'expression des gènes AtPHO dans Arabidopsis a été identifiée par l'analyse de plantes transgéniques exprimant le gène rapporteur uidA sous le contrôle des promoteurs respectifs des gènes AtPHO. Un profil d'expression de chaque gène AtPHO au cours du développement de la plante a été obtenu. Une expression prédominante au niveau des tissus vasculaires des racines, des feuilles, des tiges et des fleurs a été observée, suggérant que les gènes AtPHO pourraient avoir des fonctions redondantes au niveau du transfert de phosphate dans le cylindre vasculaire de ces différents organes. Toutefois, plusieurs régions promotrices des gènes AtPHO contrôlent également un profil d'expression GUS non-vasculaire, indiquant un rôle putatif des gènes AtPHO dans l'acquisition ou le recyclage de phosphate dans la plante. Dans un deuxième temps, l'analyse de l'expression des gènes AtPHO durant une carence en phosphate a établi que seule l'expression des gènes AtPHO1, AtPHO1; H1 et AtPHO1; H10 est régulée par cette carence. Une étude approfondie de leur expression en réponse à des traitements affectant l'homéostasie du phosphate dans la plante a ensuite démontré leur régulation par différentes voies de signalisation. Ensuite, une analyse détaillée de la régulation de l'expression du gène AtPHO1; H1O dans des feuilles d'Arabidopsis blessées ou déshydratées a révélé que ce gène constitue le premìer gène marqueur d'une nouvelle voie de signalisation induite par l'OPDA, pas par le JA et dépendante de la protéine COI1. Ces résultats démontrent pour la première fois que l'OPDA et le JA peuvent activer différents gènes via des voies de signalisation dépendantes de COI1. Enfin, cette thèse révèle l'identification d'un nouveau rôle de la protéine AtPHO1 dans la régulation de l'action de l'ABA au cours des processus de fermeture stomatique et de germination des graines chez Arabidopsis. Bien que les fonctions exactes des protéines AtPHO restent à être déterminées, ce travail de thèse suggère leur implication dans la propagation de différents signaux dans la plante via la modulation du potentiel membranaire et/ou l'affectation de la composition en ions des cellules comme le font de nombreux transporteurs ou régulateur du transport d'ions. Summary Phosphate is transferred from the roots to the shoot via the xylem. The requirement for AtPHO1 protein to transfer phosphate to the xylem vessels of the root has been previously demonstrated in Arabidopsis thaliana. The sequencing and the annotation of the Arabidopsis genome had allowed the identification of ten sequences that show a significant level of similarity with the AtPHO1 gene. These 10 genes, of unknown functions, constitute a new gene family called the AtPHO1 gene family. Based on a molecular and genetics study, this thesis reveals some information needed to understand the role of the AtPHO1 family members in the plant Arabidopsis. First, a bioinformatics study revealed that the AtPHO sequences contained, in the N-terminal hydrophilic region, a motif called SPX and conserved among multiple proteins involved in phosphate homeostasis in yeast. This finding reinforces the hypothesis that all AtPHO1 family members have, as AtPHO1, a role in phosphate homeostasis. In parallel, we identified the pattern of expression of AtPHO genes in Arabidopsis via analysis of transgenic plants expressing the uidA reporter gene under the control of respective AtPHO promoter regions. The results exhibit a predominant expression of AtPHO genes in vascular tissues of all organs of the plant, implying that these AtPHO genes could have redundant functions in the transfer of phosphate to the vascular cylinder of various organs. The GUS expression pattern for several AtPHO promoter regions was also detected in non-vascular tissue indicating a broad role of AtPHO genes in the acquisition or in the recycling of phosphate in the plant. In a second step, the analysis of the expression of AtPHO genes during phosphate starvation established that only the expression of the AtPHO1, AtPHO1; H1 and AtPHO1; H10 genes were regulated by Pi starvation. Interestingly, different signalling pathways appeared to regulate these three genes during various treatments affecting Pi homeostasis in the plant. The third chapter presents a detailed analysis of the signalling pathways regulating the expression of the AtPHO1; H10 gene in Arabidopsis leaves during wound and dehydrated stresses. Surprisingly, the expression of AtPHO1; H10 was found to be regulated by OPDA (the precursor of JA) but not by JA itself and via the COI1 protein (the central regulator of the JA signalling pathway). These results demonstrated for the first time that OPDA and JA could activate distinct genes via COI1-dependent pathways. Finally, this thesis presents the identification of a novel role of the AtPHO1 protein in the regulation of ABA action in Arabidopsis guard cells and during seed germination. Although the exact role and function of AtPHO1 still need to be determined, these last findings suggest that AtPHO1 and by extension other AtPHO proteins could mediate the propagation of various signals in the plant by modulating the membrane potential and/or by affecting cellular ion composition, as it is the case for many ion transporters or regulators of ion transport.

Representation of motor habit in a sequence of repetitive reach and grasp movements performed by macaque monkeys: evidence for a contribution of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.

In the context of an autologous cell transplantation study, a unilateral biopsy of cortical tissue was surgically performed from the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) in two intact adult macaque monkeys (dlPFC lesioned group), together with the implantation of a chronic chamber providing access to the left motor cortex. Three other monkeys were subjected to the same chronic chamber implantation, but without dlPFC biopsy (control group). All monkeys were initially trained to perform sequential manual dexterity tasks, requiring precision grip. The motor performance and the prehension's sequence (temporal order to grasp pellets from different spatial locations) were analysed for each hand. Following the surgery, transient and moderate deficits of manual dexterity per se occurred in both groups, indicating that they were not due to the dlPFC lesion (most likely related to the recording chamber implantation and/or general anaesthesia/medication). In contrast, changes of motor habit were observed for the sequential order of grasping in the two monkeys with dlPFC lesion only. The changes were more prominent in the monkey subjected to the largest lesion, supporting the notion of a specific effect of the dlPFC lesion on the motor habit of the monkeys. These observations are reminiscent of previous studies using conditional tasks with delay that have proposed a specialization of the dlPFC for visuo-spatial working memory, except that this is in a different context of "free-will", non-conditional manual dexterity task, without a component of working memory.