Connection between Caspian sea level variability and ENSO

The problem of the world greatest lake, the Caspian Sea, level changes attracts the increased attention due to its environmental consequences and unique natural characteristics. Despite the huge number of studies aimed to explain the reasons of the sea level variations the underlying mechanism has not yet been clarified. The important question is to what extent the CSL variability is linked to changes in the global climate system and to what extent it can be explained by internal natural variations in the Caspian regional hydrological system. In this study an evidence of a link between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and changes of the Caspian Sea level is presented. This link was also found to be dominating in numerical experiments with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model on the 20th century climate.

On the connection between the 1984 Atlantic warm event and the 1982-1983 ENSO

The warm event which spread in the tropical Atlantic during Spring-Summer 1984 is assumed to be partially initiated by atmospheric disturbances, themselves related to the major 1982–1983 El-Niño which occurred 1 year earlier in the Pacific. This paper tests such an hypothesis. For that purpose, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is forced by different conditions of climatic and observed sea surface temperature and an Atlantic ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is subsequently forced by the outputs of the AGCM. It is firstly shown that both the AGCM and the OGCM correctly behave when globally observed SST are used: the strengthening of the trades over the tropical Atlantic during 1983 and their subsequent weakening at the beginning of 1984 are well captured by the AGCM, and so is the Spring 1984 deepening of the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, simulated by the OGCM. As assumed, the SST anomalies located in the El-Niño Pacific area are partly responsible for wind signal anomaly in the tropical Atlantic. Though this remotely forced atmospheric signal has a small amplitude, it can generate, in the OGCM run, an anomalous sub-surface signal leading to a flattening of the thermocline in the equatorial Atlantic. This forced oceanic experiment cannot explain the amplitude and phase of the observed sub-surface oceanic anomaly: part of the Atlantic ocean response, due to local interaction between ocean and atmosphere, requires a coupled approach. Nevertheless this experiment showed that anomalous conditions in the Pacific during 82–83 created favorable conditions for anomaly development in the Atlantic.

Theology and politics in Richard Hooker's thought

Although Richard Hooker’s private attitudes were clericalist and authoritarian, his constitutional theory subordinated clergymen to laymen and monarchy to parliamentary statute. This article explains why his political ideas were nonetheless appropriate to his presumed religious purposes. It notes a very intimate connection between his teleological conception of a law and his hostility towards conventional high Calvinist ideas about predestination. The most significant anomaly within his broadly Aristotelian world-view was his belief that politics is nothing but a means to cope with sin. This too can be linked to his religious ends, but it creates an ambiguity that made his doctrines usable by Locke.

Unwritten law in Hobbesian political thought

In Hobbesian terminology, ‘unwritten laws’ are natural laws enforced within a polity, by a non-sovereign judge, without some previous public promulgation. This article discusses the idea in the light of successive Hobbesian accounts of ‘law’ and ‘obligation’. Between De Cive and Leviathan, Hobbes dropped the idea that natural law is strictly speaking law, but he continued to believe unwritten laws must form a part of any legal system. He was unable to explain how such a law could claim a legal status. His loyalty to the notion, in spite of all the trouble that it caused, is a sign of his belief that moral knowledge is readily accessible to all.

Waltz and the world: neorealism as international political theory?

The recent recovery of an empirically and ethically richer realist tradition involves an explicit contrast with neorealism's more scientistic explanatory aspirations. This contrast is, however, incomplete. Although Waltz's theoretical work is shaped by his understanding of the requirements of scientific adequacy, his empirical essays are normatively quite rich: he defends bipolarity, and criticizes US adventurism overseas, because he believes bipolarity to be conducive to effective great power management of the international system, and hence to the avoidance of nuclear war. He is, in this sense, a theorist divided against himself: much of his oeuvre exhibits precisely the kind of pragmatic sensibility that is typically identified as distinguishing realism from neorealism. His legacy for a reoriented realism is therefore more complex than is usually realized. Indeed, the nature of Waltz's own analytical endeavour points towards a kind of international political theory in which explanatory and normative questions are intertwined.

The national dialogue on behaviour change in UK climate policy: some observations on responsibility, agency and political dimensions

This chapter explores the politics around the role of agency in the UK climate change debate. Government interventions on the demand side of consumption have increasingly involved attempts to obtain greater traction with the values, attitudes and beliefs of citizens in relation to climate change and also in terms of influencing consumer behaviour at an individual level. With figures showing that approximately 40% of the UK’s carbon emissions are attributable to household and transport behaviour, policy initiatives have progressively focused on the facilitation of “sustainable behaviours”. Evidence suggests however, that mobilisation of pro-environmental attitudes in addressing the perceived “value-action gap” has so far had limited success. Research in this field suggests that there is a more significant and nuanced “gap” between context and behaviour; a relationship that perhaps provides a more adroit reflection of reasons why people do not necessarily react in the way that policy-makers anticipate. Tracing the development of the UK Government’s behaviour change agenda over the last decade, we posit that a core reason for the limitations of this programme relates to an excessively narrow focus on the individual. This has served to obscure some of the wider political and economic aspects of the debate in favour of a more simplified discussion. The second part of the chapter reports findings from a series of focus groups exploring some of the wider political views that people hold around household energy habits, purchase and use of domestic appliances, and transport behaviour-and discusses these insights in relation to the literature on the agenda’s apparent limitations. The chapter concludes by considering whether the aims of the Big Society approach (recently established by the UK’s Coalition Government) hold the potential to engage more directly with some of these issues or whether they merely constitute a “repackaging” of the individualism agenda.

International terrorism, domestic political instability, and the escalation effect

What are the main causes of international terrorism? Despite the meticulous examination of various candidate explanations, existing estimates still diverge in sign, size, and significance. This article puts forward a novel explanation and supporting evidence. We argue that domestic political instability provides the learning environment needed to successfully execute international terror attacks. Using a yearly panel of 123 countries over 1973–2003, we find that the occurrence of civil wars increases fatalities and the number of international terrorist acts by 45%. These results hold for alternative indicators of political instability, estimators, subsamples, subperiods, and accounting for competing explanations.

Does political proximity to the U.S. cause terror?

We analyze the impact of political proximity to the United States on the occurrence and severity of terror. Employing panel data for 116 countries over the period 1975–2001 we find that countries voting in line with the U.S. are victims of more and deadlier attacks.

Political instability and the persistence of religion in Greece: the policy implications of the cultural defence paradigm

This paper examines the implications of ‘cultural defence’ in the nature of democracy and the stability of the political system in Greece. It focuses on the Greek Orthodox Church’s maintenance of power and political relevance by virtue of its strong link to national identity. We argue that the inhibition of secularization in Greece as a result of cultural defence has significant policy implications, especially in times of crises, when the role of nationalism as a cohesive factor against perceived threats is intensified. The paper further explores three policy/politics areas: (1) political orientation; (2) religious pluralism; and (3) education.

Survival at the frontier of Holy War: political expansion, crusading, commerce and the medieval colonizing settlement at Biała Gora, North Poland

Between the eleventh and thirteenth centuries AD, the Lower Vistula valley represented a permeable and shifting frontier between Pomerelia (eastern Pomerania), which had been incorporated into the Polish Christian state by the end of the tenth century, and the territories of western Prussian tribes, who had resisted attempts at Christianization. Pomeranian colonization eventually began to falter in the latter decades of the twelfth and early thirteenth centuries, most likely as a result of Prussian incursions, which saw the abandonment of sites across the borderland. Subsequently, the Teutonic Order and its allies led a protracted holy war against the Prussian tribes, which resulted in the conquest of the region and its incorporation into a theocratic state by the end of the thirteenth century. This was accompanied by a second wave of colonization, which resulted in the settlement pattern that is still visible in the landscape of north-central Poland today. However, not all colonies were destroyed or abandoned in between the two phases of colonization. The recently excavated site of Biała Góra, situated on the western side of the Forest of Sztum overlooking the River Nogat, represents a unique example of a transitional settlement that included both Pomeranian and Teutonic Order phases. The aim of this paper is to situate the site within its broader landscape context which can be characterized as a militarized frontier, where, from the later twelfth century and throughout much of the thirteenth century, political and economic expansion was combined with the ideology of Christian holy war and missionary activity. This paper considers how the colonists provisioned and sustained themselves in comparison to other sites within the region, and how Biała Góra may be tentatively linked to a documented but otherwise lost outpost in this volatile borderland.