Managing and learning with multiple models: Objectives and optimization algorithms

The quality of environmental decisions should be gauged according to managers' objectives. Management objectives generally seek to maximize quantifiable measures of system benefit, for instance population growth rate. Reaching these goals often requires a certain degree of learning about the system. Learning can occur by using management action in combination with a monitoring system. Furthermore, actions can be chosen strategically to obtain specific kinds of information. Formal decision making tools can choose actions to favor such learning in two ways: implicitly via the optimization algorithm that is used when there is a management objective (for instance, when using adaptive management), or explicitly by quantifying knowledge and using it as the fundamental project objective, an approach new to conservation.This paper outlines three conservation project objectives - a pure management objective, a pure learning objective, and an objective that is a weighted mixture of these two. We use eight optimization algorithms to choose actions that meet project objectives and illustrate them in a simulated conservation project. The algorithms provide a taxonomy of decision making tools in conservation management when there is uncertainty surrounding competing models of system function. The algorithms build upon each other such that their differences are highlighted and practitioners may see where their decision making tools can be improved. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Practical implementation of species' recovery plans - Lessons from the White-backed Woodpecker Action Plan in Sweden

Successful biodiversity conservation requires safeguarding viable populations of species. To work with this challenge Sweden has introduced a concept of Action Plans, which focus on the recovery of one or more species; while keeping in mind the philosophy of addressing ecosystems in a more comprehensive way, following the umbrella concept. In this paper we investigate the implementationprocess of the ActionPlanfor one umbrella species, the White-backed Woodpecker (WBW) Dendrocopos leucotos. We describe the plan's organisation and goals, and investigate its implementation and accomplishment of particular targets, based on interviewing and surveying the key actors. The achievement of the targets in 2005-2008 was on average much lower than planned, explained partially by the lack of knowledge/data, experienced workers, and administrative flexibility. Surprisingly, the perceived importance of particular conservation measures, the investment priority accorded to them, the money available and various practical obstacles all failed to kg? explain the target levels achieved. However qualitative data from both the interviews and the survey highlight possible implementation obstacles: competing interests with other conservation actions and the level of engagement of particular implementing actors. Therefore we suggest that for successful implementation of recovery plans, there is aneed for initial and inclusive scoping prior to embarking on the plan, where not only issues like ecological knowledge and practical resources are considered, but also possible conflicts and synergies with other conservation actions. An adaptive approach with regular review of the conservation process is essential, particularly in the case of such complex action plans as the one for the WBW.

Robust conservation decision-making

Decision-making for conservation is conducted within the margins of limited funding. Furthermore, to allocate these scarce resources we make assumptions about the relationship between management impact and expenditure. The structure of these relationships, however, is rarely known with certainty. We present a summary of work investigating the impact of model uncertainty on robust decision-making in conservation and how this is affected by available conservation funding. We show that achieving robustness in conservation decisions can require a triage approach, and emphasize the need for managers to consider triage not as surrendering but as rational decision making to ensure species persistence in light of the urgency of the conservation problems, uncertainty, and the poor state of conservation funding. We illustrate this theory by a specific application to allocation of funding to reduce poaching impact on the Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae in Kerinci Seblat National Park, Indonesia. To conserve our environment, conservation managers must make decisions in the face of substantial uncertainty. Further, they must deal with the fact that limitations in budgets and temporal constraints have led to a lack of knowledge on the systems we are trying to preserve and on the benefits of the actions we have available (Balmford & Cowling 2006). Given this paucity of decision-informing data there is a considerable need to assess the impact of uncertainty on the benefit of management options (Regan et al. 2005). Although models of management impact can improve decision making (e.g.Tenhumberg et al. 2004), they typically rely on assumptions around which there is substantial uncertainty. Ignoring this 'model uncertainty', can lead to inferior decision-making (Regan et al. 2005), and potentially, the loss of the species we are trying to protect. Current methods used in ecology allow model uncertainty to be incorporated into the model selection process (Burnham & Anderson 2002; Link & Barker 2006), but do not enable decision-makers to assess how this uncertainty would change a decision. This is the basis of information-gap decision theory (info-gap); finding strategies most robust to model uncertainty (Ben-Haim 2006). Info-gap has permitted conservation biology to make the leap from recognizing uncertainty to explicitly incorporating severe uncertainty into decision-making. In this paper we present a summary of McDonald-Madden et al (2008a) who use an info-gap framework to address the impact of uncertainty in the functional representations of biological systems on conservation decision-making. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of two key elements limiting conservation decision-making - funding and knowledge - and how they interact to influence the best management strategy for a threatened species. Copyright © ASCE 2011.

Process variability of pollutant build-up on urban road surfaces

Knowledge of the pollutant build-up process is a key requirement for developing stormwater pollution mitigation strategies. In this context, process variability is a concept which needs to be understood in-depth. Analysis of particulate build-up on three road surfaces in an urban catchment confirmed that particles <150µm and >150µm have characteristically different build-up patterns, and these patterns are consistent over different field conditions. Three theoretical build-up patterns were developed based on the size-fractionated particulate build-up patterns, and these patterns explain the variability in particle behavior and the variation in particle-bound pollutant load and composition over the antecedent dry period. Behavioral variability of particles <150µm was found to exert the most significant influence on the build-up process variability. As characterization of process variability is particularly important in stormwater quality modeling, it is recommended that the influence of behavioral variability of particles <150µm on pollutant build-up should be specifically addressed. This would eliminate model deficiencies in the replication of the build-up process and facilitate the accounting of the inherent process uncertainty, and thereby enhance the water quality predictions.

Quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates for stochastic models of collective cell spreading using approximate Bayesian computation

Wound healing and tumour growth involve collective cell spreading, which is driven by individual motility and proliferation events within a population of cells. Mathematical models are often used to interpret experimental data and to estimate the parameters so that predictions can be made. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically assume that these parameters are constants and often ignore any uncertainty in the estimated values. We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ, from a discrete model of collective cell spreading, and we quantify the uncertainty associated with these estimates using Bayesian inference. We use a detailed experimental data set describing the collective cell spreading of 3T3 fibroblast cells. The ABC analysis is conducted for different combinations of initial cell densities and experimental times in two separate scenarios: (i) where collective cell spreading is driven by cell motility alone, and (ii) where collective cell spreading is driven by combined cell motility and cell proliferation. We find that D can be estimated precisely, with a small coefficient of variation (CV) of 2–6%. Our results indicate that D appears to depend on the experimental time, which is a feature that has been previously overlooked. Assuming that the values of D are the same in both experimental scenarios, we use the information about D from the first experimental scenario to obtain reasonably precise estimates of λ, with a CV between 4 and 12%. Our estimates of D and λ are consistent with previously reported values; however, our method is based on a straightforward measurement of the position of the leading edge whereas previous approaches have involved expensive cell counting techniques. Additional insights gained using a fully Bayesian approach justify the computational cost, especially since it allows us to accommodate information from different experiments in a principled way.

Implicating animals: The symbolic power of scapegoating animals in marine pollution debates

Animals are often used as symbols in policy debates and media accounts of marine pollution. Images of miserable oil-soaked marine birds and mammals are prominent following high profile oil spills such as the Exxon Valdez, Prestige and Pacific Adventurer incidents. Portrayed as hapless victims, these animal actors are not only cast as powerful symbols of the effects of anthropogenic pollution but also represent an environment in crisis. Animals, like the broader environment, are seen as something which is acted upon. Less attention has been given to the ways in which animals have been cast as either the cause of marine pollution or as having the potential to actively mitigate the potential impacts of anthropogenic marine pollution. This article explores how animals are constructed with respect to vessel-sourced sewage pollution. Through a process of interpretive policy analysis, drawing on media reports and responses to an Australian regulatory review process this study found that, when defending the perceived right to pollute recreational boaters implicated animals such as dogs, fish, turtles, dolphins and seabirds in their pollution discourses. Scapegoating was an important rhetorical feature of claims-making strategies designed to avoid responsibility for changing sewage disposal practices.

Emotional effort and perceived support in renal nursing: A comparative interview study

Background: Social support is an important moderator of poor well-being outcomes for nurses engaged in emotional labour with patients; however, the most effective support for renal nurses is not well understood compared with other specialties. Objectives: To identify patterns and themes in how renal nurses and two other specialties engage with patients’ emotional expressions, express their own emotion and access and provide support for emotional expenditure. Method: Renal, emergency and palliative care nurses from Perth, Western Australia, were interviewed. Results: Renal nurses engage in significant amounts of emotional labour with patients, and identify co-workers as the most important source of support due to their availability and a sense of shared experience. However, comparative analysis showed that renal nurses do not recognise their emotional expenditure as readily and have less certainty of co-worker support. Conclusions: Because their high levels of emotional engagement with patients are mostly positive, renal nurses are less prepared than other nurses to manage difficult emotional situations. As co-worker support is highly valued, organisations should train renal nurses specifically to support one another.

Promoting pro-environmental action in climate change deniers

A sizeable (and growing) proportion of the public in Western democracies deny the existence of anthropogenic climate change. It is commonly assumed that convincing deniers that climate change is real is necessary for them to act pro-environmentally. However, the likelihood of ‘conversion’ using scientific evidence is limited because these attitudes increasingly reflect ideological positions. An alternative approach is to identify outcomes of mitigation efforts that deniers find important. People have strong interests in the welfare of their society, so deniers may act in ways supporting mitigation efforts where they believe these efforts will have positive societal effects. In Study 1, climate change deniers (N D 155) intended to act more pro-environmentally where they thought climate change action would create a society where people are more considerate and caring, and where there is greater economic/technological development. Study 2 (ND347) replicated this experimentally, showing that framing climate change action as increasing consideration for others, or improving economic/technological development, led to greater pro-environmental action intentions than a frame emphasizing avoiding the risks of climate change. To motivate deniers’ pro-environmental actions, communication should focus on how mitigation efforts can promote a better society, rather than focusing on the reality of climate change and averting its risks.

Mini-Orb : A personal indoor climate preference feedback interface

The control of environmental factors in open-office environments, such as lighting and temperature is becoming increasingly automated. This development means that office inhabitants are losing the ability to manually adjust environmental conditions according to their needs. In this paper we describe the design, use and evaluation of MiniOrb, a system that employs ambient and tangible interaction mechanisms to allow inhabitants of office environments to maintain awareness of environmental factors, report on their own subjectively perceived office comfort levels and see how these compare to group average preferences. The system is complemented by a mobile application, which enables users to see and set the same sensor values and preferences, but using a screen-based interface. We give an account of the system’s design and outline the results of an in-situ trial and user study. Our results show that devices that combine ambient and tangible interaction approaches are well suited to the task of recording indoor climate preferences and afford a rich set of possible interactions that can complement those enabled by more conventional screen-based interfaces.

Feeling left out? The mediating role of perceived rejection on workgroup mistreatment and affective, behavioral, and organizational outcomes and the moderating role of organizational norms

This two-study paper examines the detrimental impact of workgroup mistreatment and the mediating role of perceived rejection. In Study 1, perceived rejection emerged as a mediator between workgroup mistreatment and depression, organization-based self-esteem, organizational deviance, and organizational citizenship behaviors. In Study 2, the role of organizational norms was examined. Employees who experienced supportive organizational norms reported lower levels of perceived rejection, depression and turnover intentions, and higher levels of organization-based self-esteem and job satisfaction. Employees in the supportive norms condition reported that they were more likely to seek reconciliation after experiencing mistreatment than those who experienced low support. Perceived rejection also emerged as a mediator. Results, practical implications, and future research directions are discussed.

Emotional anguish at work: The mediating role of perceived rejection on workgroup mistreatment and affective outcomes

In this study, the authors pay particular attention to mistreatment directed toward an organizational member from fellow workgroup members. The study contributes to the growing body of literature that examines the mistreatment of employees in the workplace. The authors propose that mistreatment by the workgroup would contribute to feelings of rejection, over and above mistreatment by the supervisor. In addition, the authors tested the mediating role of perceived rejection between workgroup mistreatment and affective outcomes such as depression and organization-based self-esteem. Part-time working participants (N = 142) took part in the study, which required them to complete a questionnaire on workplace behaviors. Results indicated that workgroup mistreatment contributed additional variance to perceived rejection over and above supervisory mistreatment when predicting depression and organization-based self-esteem. The results also indicated that perceived rejection mediates the relationship between mistreatment and affective outcomes. Results are discussed and implications for research and practice are considered.

Socio-environmental drivers and suicide in Australia: Bayesian spatial analysis

Background The impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide has been examined in many studies. Few of them, however, have explored these associations from a spatial perspective, especially in assessing the association between meteorological factors and suicide. This study examined the association of meteorological and socio-demographic factors with suicide across small areas over different time periods. Methods Suicide, population and socio-demographic data (e.g., population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI), and unemployment rate (UNE) at the Local Government Area (LGA) level were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period of 1986 to 2005. Information on meteorological factors (rainfall, temperature and humidity) was supplied by Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Model was applied to explore the association of socio-demographic and meteorological factors with suicide across LGAs. Results In Model I (socio-demographic factors), proportion of ATSI and UNE were positively associated with suicide from 1996 to 2000 (Relative Risk (RR)ATSI = 1.0107, 95% Credible Interval (CI): 1.0062-1.0151; RRUNE = 1.0187, 95% CI: 1.0060-1.0315), and from 2001 to 2005 (RRATSI = 1.0126, 95% CI: 1.0076-1.0176; RRUNE = 1.0198, 95% CI: 1.0041-1.0354). Socio-Economic Index for Area (SEIFA) and IND, however, had negative associations with suicide between 1986 and 1990 (RRSEIFA = 0.9983, 95% CI: 0.9971-0.9995; RRATSI = 0.9914, 95% CI: 0.9848-0.9980). Model II (meteorological factors): a 1°C higher yearly mean temperature across LGAs increased the suicide rate by an average by 2.27% (95% CI: 0.73%, 3.82%) in 1996–2000, and 3.24% (95% CI: 1.26%, 5.21%) in 2001–2005. The associations between socio-demographic factors and suicide in Model III (socio-demographic and meteorological factors) were similar to those in Model I; but, there is no substantive association between climate and suicide in Model III. Conclusions Proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, unemployment and temperature appeared to be statistically associated with of suicide incidence across LGAs among all selected variables, especially in recent years. The results indicated that socio-demographic factors played more important roles than meteorological factors in the spatial pattern of suicide incidence.

Can perceptual indices estimate physiological strain across a range of environments and metabolic workloads when wearing explosive ordnance disposal and chemical protective clothing?

Objective Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) often requires technicians to wear multiple protective garments in challenging environmental conditions. The accumulative effect of increased metabolic cost coupled with decreased heat dissipation associated with these garments predisposes technicians to high levels of physiological strain. It has been proposed that a perceptual strain index (PeSI) using subjective ratings of thermal sensation and perceived exertion as surrogate measures of core body temperature and heart rate, may provide an accurate estimation of physiological strain. Therefore, this study aimed to determine if the PeSI could estimate the physiological strain index (PSI) across a range of metabolic workloads and environments while wearing heavy EOD and chemical protective clothing. Methods Eleven healthy males wore an EOD and chemical protective ensemble while walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km·h− 1 at 1% grade in environmental conditions equivalent to wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 21, 30 and 37 °C. WBGT conditions were randomly presented and a maximum of three randomised treadmill walking trials were completed in a single testing day. Trials were ceased at a maximum of 60-min or until the attainment of termination criteria. A Pearson's correlation coefficient, mixed linear model, absolute agreement and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the relationship between the PeSI and PSI. Results A significant moderate relationship between the PeSI and the PSI was observed [r = 0.77; p < 0.001; mean difference = 0.8 ± 1.1 a.u. (modified 95% limits of agreement − 1.3 to 3.0)]. The ROC curves indicated that the PeSI had a good predictive power when used with two, single-threshold cut-offs to differentiate between low and high levels of physiological strain (area under curve: PSI three cut-off = 0.936 and seven cut-off = 0.841). Conclusions These findings support the use of the PeSI for monitoring physiological strain while wearing EOD and chemical protective clothing. However, future research is needed to confirm the validity of the PeSI for active EOD technicians operating in the field.

Environmental contamination and hospital-acquired infection: factors that are easily overlooked

There is an ongoing debate about the reasons for and factors contributing to healthcare-associated infection (HAI). Different solutions have been proposed over time to control the spread of HAI, with more focus on hand hygiene than on other aspects such as preventing the aerial dissemination of bacteria. Yet, it emerges that there is a need for a more pluralistic approach to infection control; one that reflects the complexity of the systems associated with HAI and involves multidisciplinary teams including hospital doctors, infection control nurses, microbiologists, architects, and engineers with expertise in building design and facilities management. This study reviews the knowledge base on the role that environmental contamination plays in the transmission of HAI, with the aim of raising awareness regarding infection control issues that are frequently overlooked. From the discussion presented in the study, it is clear that many unknowns persist regarding aerial dissemination of bacteria, and its control via cleaning and disinfection of the clinical environment. There is a paucity of good-quality epidemiological data, making it difficult for healthcare authorities to develop evidence-based policies. Consequently, there is a strong need for carefully designed studies to determine the impact of environmental contamination on the spread of HAI.