Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Incremental attribute evaluation through recursive procedures

Incremental semantic analysis in a programming environment based on Attribute Grammars is performed by an Incremental Attribute Evaluator (IAE). Current IAEs are either table-driven or make extensive use of graph structures to schedule reevaluation of attributes. A method of compiling an Ordered Attribute Grammar into mutually recursive procedures is proposed. These procedures form an optimal time Incremental Attribute Evaluator for the attribute grammar, which does not require any graphs or tables.

Consumer Evaluation of Hybrid Innovations (summary section only)

Hybrid innovations, or new products that combine two existing product categories into one, are increasingly popular in today’s marketplace. Despite this proliferation, few studies address them. The purpose of this thesis is to examine consumer evaluation of hybrid innovations by focusing on consumer categorization of such innovations and on factors contributing positively and negatively to their evaluation. This issue is examined by means of three studies. The first study addresses the proportion of consumers categorizing hybrid products as single- versus dual-purpose, what contributes to such a categorization, what differences can be found between the two groups, and if categorization can and should be included in models of innovation adoption. The second study expands on the scope by including motivation as a predictor of consumer evaluation and examines two cognitive and affective factors and their differential impact on innovation evaluation. Finally, the third study examines the product comparisons single- versus dual-purpose categorization induce. These three essays together build up a broader understanding of hybrid innovation evaluation. The thesis uses theories from both psychology and marketing to examine the issues at hand. Conceptual combination and analogical learning theories from psychology are used to comprehend categorization and knowledge transfer. From marketing, consumer behavior and innovation adoption studies are addressed to better understand the link between categorization and product evaluation and the factors contributing to product evaluation. The main results of the current thesis are that (1) most consumers categorize hybrid products as single- and not as dual-purpose products, (2) consumers that categorize them as dual-purpose find them more attractive (3) motivation has a significant effect on consumer evaluation of innovations; cognitive factors promote an emphasis on product net benefits, whereas affective factors induce consumers to consider product meaning in the form of categorization and perceived product complexity, (4) categorization constrains subsequent product evaluation, and (5) categorization can and should be included to models of innovation adoption. Maria Sääksjärvi is associated with CERS, the Center for Relationship Marketing and Service Management at the Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration

An analytical model for capacity evaluation of VoIP on HCCA and TCP file transfers over EDCA in an IEEE 802.11e WLAN

In the context of the IEEE 802.11e standard for WLANs, we provide an analytical model for obtaining the maximum number of VoIP calls that can be supported on HCCA, such that the delay QoS constraint of the accepted calls is met, when TCP downloads are coexistent on EDCA. In this scenario, we derive the TCP download throughput by using an analytical model for the case where only TCP sessions are present in the WLAN. We show that the analytical model for combined voice and TCP transfers provides accurate results in comparison with simulations (using ns-2).

Performance evaluation of an integrated solar water heater as an option for building energy conservation

Since a majority of residential and industrial building hot water needs are around 50 degrees C, an integrated solar water heater could provide a bulk source that blends collection and storage into one unit. This paper describes the design, construction and performance test results of one such water-heating device. The test unit has an absorber area of 1.3 m(2) and can hold 1701 of water, of which extractable volume per day is 1001. Its performance was evaluated under various typical operating conditions. Every morning at about 7:00 a.m., 1001 of hot water were drawn from the sump and replaced with cold water from the mains. Although, during most of the days, the peak temperatures of water obtained are between 50 and 60 degrees C, the next morning temperatures were lower at 45-50 degrees C. Daytime collection efficiencies of about 60% and overall efficiencies of about 40% were obtained. Tests were conducted with and without stratification. Night radiation losses were reduced by use of a screen insulation.

Design and performance evaluation of a systolic architecture for hidden-surface removal

In this paper, we propose a systolic architecture for hidden-surface removal. Systolic architecture is a kind of parallel architecture best known for its easy VLSI implementability. After discussing the design details of the architecture, we present the results of the simulation experiments conducted in order to evaluate the performance of the architecture.

Molecular Complexes of Alprazolam with Carboxylic Acids, Boric Acid, Boronic Acids, and Phenols. Evaluation of Supramolecular Heterosynthons Mediated by a Triazole Ring

A series of molecular complexes, both co-crystals and salts, of a triazole drug-alprazolam-with carboxylic acids, boric acid, boronic acids, and phenols have been analyzed with respect to heterosynthons present in the crystal structures. In all cases, the triazole ring behaves as an efficient hydrogen bond acceptor with the acidic coformers. The hydrogen bond patterns exhibited with aromatic carboxylic acids were found to depend on the nature and position of the substituents. Being a strong acid, 2,6-dihydroxybenzoic acid forms a salt with alprazolam. With aliphatic dicarboxylic acids alprazolam forms hydrates and the water molecules play a central role in synthon formation and crystal packing. The triazole ring makes two distinct heterosynthons in the molecular complex with boric acid. Boronic acids and phenols form consistent hydrogen bond patterns, and these are seemingly independent of the substitutional effects. Boronic acids form noncentrosymmetric cyclic synthons, while phenols form O-H center dot center dot center dot N hydrogen bonds with the triazole ring. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association J Pharm Sci 99:3743-3753, 2010.

ILS glideslope evaluation for imperfect terrain

Instrument landing systems (ILS) are normally designed assuming the site around them to be flat. Uneven terrain results in undulations in the glidescope. In recent years, models have been evolved for predicting such aberrations as a simpler alternative to experimental methods. Such modeling normally assumes the ground to be fully conducting. A method is presented for considering imperfect terrain conductivity within the framework of the uniform theory of diffraction (UTD). A single impedance wedge formulation is developed to a form that resembles the standard form of UTD, with only one extra term in the diffraction coefficient. This extends the applicability of the standard UTD formulation and software packages to the case of the imperfectly conducting terrain. The method has been applied to a real airport site in India and improved agreement with measured glidescope parameters is demonstrated

Direct stability evaluation of power systems with detailed generator models using structure-preserving energy functions

Energy-based direct methods for transient stability analysis are potentially useful both as offline tools for planning purposes as well as for online security assessment. In this paper, a novel structure-preserving energy function (SPEF) is developed using the philosophy of structure-preserving model for the system and detailed generator model including flux decay, transient saliency, automatic voltage regulator (AVR), exciter and damper winding. A simpler and yet general expression for the SPEF is also derived which can simplify the computation of the energy function. The system equations and the energy function are derived using the centre-of-inertia (COI) formulation and the system loads are modelled as arbitrary functions of the respective bus voltages. Application of the proposed SPEF to transient stability evaluation of power systems is illustrated with numerical examples.

Effect of Neutralization of Endogenous Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH) or Luteinizing Hormone (LH) on Ovarian Lipids in the Hamster: A Histochemical and Biochemical Evaluation

The effect of neutralizing FSH or LH on ovarian lipids in the cycling hamster was studied. In the normal cycling hamster on the day of proestrus, histochemical examination revealed the presence of sudanophilic lipids in the granulosa cells of the follicles and in the interstitium. A clear reduction in the intensity of lipid staining was observed on proestrus in the ovary of hamsters treated with FSH antiserum on the previous proestrus. Similar treatment with antiserum to LH, on the other hand, caused an accumulation of lipids in these structures. Estimation of the free and esterified fractions of cholesterol and triglycerides in the nonluteal tissue of the ovary of hamsters on proestrus following treatment with FSH antiserum on the previous proestrus revealed a significant reduction in all 3 lipid components. Even a short term deprivation of FSH caused a similar reduction in these lipids in the ovary. In contrast, treatment with LH antiserum either on the previous proestrus or on the previous day (diestrus-2) resulted in an enhancement in esterified cholesterol and triglycerides, while it caused a reduction in the free cholesterol fraction of the ovary on proestrus.It is suggested that though treatment with antisera to either FSH or LH causes a disruption in follicular maturation, their effect on lipid metabolism is different. A positive role for FSH and LH in maintaining normal sterol and triglyceride levels in the nonluteal ovarian tissue of cycling hamster is indicated.