Application of the direct Liapunov method to the problem of symmetric stability in the atmosphere

The problem of symmetric stability is examined within the context of the direct Liapunov method. The sufficient conditions for stability derived by Fjørtoft are shown to imply finite-amplitude, normed stability. This finite-amplitude stability theorem is then used to obtain rigorous upper bounds on the saturation amplitude of disturbances to symmetrically unstable flows.By employing a virial functional, the necessary conditions for instability implied by the stability theorem are shown to be in fact sufficient for instability. The results of Ooyama are improved upon insofar as a tight two-sided (upper and lower) estimate is obtained of the growth rate of (modal or nonmodal) symmetric instabilities.The case of moist adiabatic systems is also considered.

Nonlinear wave-activity conservation laws and Hamiltonian structure for the two-dimensional anelastic equations

Exact, finite-amplitude, local wave-activity conservation laws are derived for disturbances to steady flows in the context of the two-dimensional anelastic equations. The conservation laws are expressed entirely in terms of Eulerian quantities, and have the property that, in the limit of a small-amplitude, slowly varying, monochromatic wave train, the wave-activity density A and flux F, when averaged over phase, satisfy F = cgA where cg is the group velocity of the waves. For nonparallel steady flows, the only conserved wave activity is a form of disturbance pseudoenergy; when the steady flow is parallel, there is in addition a conservation law for the disturbance pseudomomentum. The above results are obtained not only for isentropic background states (which give the so-called “deep form” of the anelastic equations), but also for arbitrary background potential-temperature profiles θ0(z) so long as the variation in θ0(z) over the depth of the fluid is small compared with θ0 itself. The Hamiltonian structure of the equations is established in both cases, and its symmetry properties discussed. An expression for available potential energy is also derived that, for the case of a stably stratified background state (i.e., dθ0/dz > 0), is locally positive definite; the expression is valid for fully three-dimensional flow. The counterparts to results for the two-dimensional Boussinesq equations are also noted.

Wave activity in the tropical tropopause layer in seven reanalysis and four chemistry climate model data sets

Sub-seasonal variability including equatorial waves significantly influence the dehydration and transport processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). This study investigates the wave activity in the TTL in 7 reanalysis data sets (RAs; NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA40, ERA-Interim, JRA25, MERRA, and CFSR) and 4 chemistry climate models (CCMs; CCSRNIES, CMAM, MRI, and WACCM) using the zonal wave number-frequency spectral analysis method with equatorially symmetric-antisymmetric decomposition. Analyses are made for temperature and horizontal winds at 100 hPa in the RAs and CCMs and for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), which is a proxy for convective activity that generates tropopause-level disturbances, in satellite data and the CCMs. Particular focus is placed on equatorial Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The wave activity is defined as the variance, i.e., the power spectral density integrated in a particular zonal wave number-frequency region. It is found that the TTL wave activities show significant difference among the RAs, ranging from ∼0.7 (for NCEP1 and NCEP2) to ∼1.4 (for ERA-Interim, MERRA, and CFSR) with respect to the averages from the RAs. The TTL activities in the CCMs lie generally within the range of those in the RAs, with a few exceptions. However, the spectral features in OLR for all the CCMs are very different from those in the observations, and the OLR wave activities are too low for CCSRNIES, CMAM, and MRI. It is concluded that the broad range of wave activity found in the different RAs decreases our confidence in their validity and in particular their value for validation of CCM performance in the TTL, thereby limiting our quantitative understanding of the dehydration and transport processes in the TTL.

The responsibility to record civilian casualties

The responsibility to record civilian casualties in both armed conflict and civil disturbances must be an integral element of the responsibility to protect, particularly in the application of the just cause principles. The first part of this article examines the threshold issue of the possibility of large-scale civilian casualties which triggers the international community’s responsibility to react. The reports recommending the responsibility to protect emphasise the need to establish the actuality or risk of ‘large scale’ loss of life which is not possible in the current context without a civilian casualty recording structure. The second part of the article outlines the international legal obligation to record civilian casualties based on international humanitarian law and international human rights law. Thirdly, the responsibility to protect and the legal obligation to record casualties are brought together within the framework of Ban Ki-moon’s reports on implementation of the Responsibility to Protect. The fourth and final part of the article reviews the situations in Sri Lanka and Syria. Both states represent egregious examples of governments hiding the existence of casualties, resulting in paralysis within the international community. These situations establish, beyond doubt, that the national obligation to record civilian casualties must be part and parcel of the responsibility to protect.

Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: a dynamic coherence framework

This paper analyzes the dynamic interactions between real estate markets, in the US and the UK and their macroeconomic environments. We apply a new approach based on a dynamic coherence function (DCF) to study these interactions bringing together different real estate markets (the securitized market, the commercial market and the residential market). The results suggest that there is a common trend that drives the different real estate markets in the UK and the US, particularly in the long run, since they have a similar shape of the DCF. We also find that, in the US, wealth and housing expenditure channels are very conductive during real estate crises. However, in the UK, only the wealth effect is significant as a transmission channel during real estate market downturns. In addition, real estate markets in the UK and the US react differently to institutional shocks. This brings some insights on the conduct of monetary policy in order to avoid disturbances in real estate markets.

Terrestrial ecosystems from space: a review of earth observation products for macroecology applications

Aim Earth observation (EO) products are a valuable alternative to spectral vegetation indices. We discuss the availability of EO products for analysing patterns in macroecology, particularly related to vegetation, on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Location Global. Methods We discuss four groups of EO products: land cover/cover change, vegetation structure and ecosystem productivity, fire detection, and digital elevation models. We address important practical issues arising from their use, such as assumptions underlying product generation, product accuracy and product transferability between spatial scales. We investigate the potential of EO products for analysing terrestrial ecosystems. Results Land cover, productivity and fire products are generated from long-term data using standardized algorithms to improve reliability in detecting change of land surfaces. Their global coverage renders them useful for macroecology. Their spatial resolution (e.g. GLOBCOVER vegetation, 300 m; MODIS vegetation and fire, ≥ 500 m; ASTER digital elevation, 30 m) can be a limiting factor. Canopy structure and productivity products are based on physical approaches and thus are independent of biome-specific calibrations. Active fire locations are provided in near-real time, while burnt area products show actual area burnt by fire. EO products can be assimilated into ecosystem models, and their validation information can be employed to calculate uncertainties during subsequent modelling. Main conclusions Owing to their global coverage and long-term continuity, EO end products can significantly advance the field of macroecology. EO products allow analyses of spatial biodiversity, seasonal dynamics of biomass and productivity, and consequences of disturbances on regional to global scales. Remaining drawbacks include inter-operability between products from different sensors and accuracy issues due to differences between assumptions and models underlying the generation of different EO products. Our review explains the nature of EO products and how they relate to particular ecological variables across scales to encourage their wider use in ecological applications.

Making an effort to feel positive: insecure attachment in infancy predicts the neural underpinnings of emotion regulation in adulthood

Background: Animal research indicates that the neural substrates of emotion regulation may be persistently altered by early environmental exposures. If similar processes operate in human development then this is significant, as the capacity to regulate emotional states is fundamental to human adaptation. Methods: We utilised a 22-year longitudinal study to examine the influence of early infant attachment to the mother, a key marker of early experience, on neural regulation of emotional states in young adults. Infant attachment status was measured via objective assessment at 18-months, and the neural underpinnings of the active regulation of affect were studied using fMRI at age 22 years. Results: Infant attachment status at 18-months predicted neural responding during the regulation of positive affect 20-years later. Specifically, while attempting to up-regulate positive emotions, adults who had been insecurely versus securely attached as infants showed greater activation in prefrontal regions involved in cognitive control and reduced co-activation of prefrontal cortex and nucleus accumbens, consistent with relative inefficiency in the neural regulation of positive affect. Conclusions: Disturbances in the mother-infant relationship may persistently alter the neural circuitry of emotion regulation, with potential implications for adjustment in adulthood.

A longitudinal study of child sleep in high and low risk families: relationship to early maternal settling strategies and child psychological functioning

Objectives To investigate whether sleep disturbances previously found to characterise high risk infants: (a) persist into childhood; (b) are influenced by early maternal settling strategies and (c) predict cognitive and emotional/behavioural functioning. Methods Mothers experiencing high and low levels of psychosocial adversity (risk) were recruited antenatally and longitudinally assessed with their children. Mothers completed measures of settling strategies and infant sleep postnatally, and at 12 and 18 months, infant age. At five years, child sleep characteristics were measured via an actigraphy and maternal report; IQ and child adjustment were also assessed. Results Sleep disturbances observed in high-risk infants persisted at five years. Maternal involvement in infant settling was greater in high risk mothers, and predicted less optimal sleep at five years. Poorer five year sleep was associated with concurrent child anxiety/depression and aggression, but there was limited evidence for an influence of early sleep problems. Associations between infant/child sleep characteristics and IQ were also limited. Conclusions Early maternal over-involvement in infant settling is associated with less optimal sleep in children, which in turn, is related to child adjustment. The findings highlight the importance of supporting parents in the early development of good settling practices, particularly in high-risk populations.

The population dynamics of disease on short and long time-scales

Observational evidence is scarce concerning the distribution of plant pathogen population sizes or densities as a function of time-scale or spatial scale. For wild pathosystems we can only get indirect evidence from evolutionary patterns and the consequences of biological invasions.We have little or no evidence bearing on extermination of hosts by pathogens, or successful escape of a host from a pathogen. Evidence over the last couple of centuries from crops suggest that the abundance of particular pathogens in the spectrum affecting a given host can vary hugely on decadal timescales. However, this may be an artefact of domestication and intensive cultivation. Host-pathogen dynamics can be formulated mathematically fairly easily–for example as SIR-type differential equation or difference equation models, and this has been the (successful) focus of recent work in crops. “Long-term” is then discussed in terms of the time taken to relax from a perturbation to the asymptotic state. However, both host and pathogen dynamics are driven by environmental factors as well as their mutual interactions, and both host and pathogen co-evolve, and evolve in response to external factors. We have virtually no information about the importance and natural role of higher trophic levels (hyperpathogens) and competitors, but they could also induce long-scale fluctuations in the abundance of pathogens on particular hosts. In wild pathosystems the host distribution cannot be modelled as either a uniform density or even a uniform distribution of fields (which could then be treated as individuals). Patterns of short term density-dependence and the detail of host distribution are therefore critical to long-term dynamics. Host density distributions are not usually scale-free, but are rarely uniform or clearly structured on a single scale. In a (multiply structured) metapopulation with coevolution and external disturbances it could well be the case that the time required to attain equilibrium (if it exists) based on conditions stable over a specified time-scale is longer than that time-scale. Alternatively, local equilibria may be reached fairly rapidly following perturbations but the meta-population equilibrium be attained very slowly. In either case, meta-stability on various time-scales is a more relevant than equilibrium concepts in explaining observed patterns.

Prebiotic feeding elevates central brain derived neurotrophic factor, N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor subunits and D-serine

The influence of the gut microbiota on brain chemistry has been convincingly demonstrated in rodents. In the absence of gut bacteria, the central expression of brain derived neurotropic factor, (BDNF), and N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) subunits are reduced, whereas, oral probiotics increase brain BDNF, and impart significant anxiolytic effects. We tested whether prebiotic compounds, which increase intrinsic enteric microbiota, also affected brain BDNF and NMDARs. In addition, we examined whether plasma from prebiotic treated rats released BDNF from human SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells, to provide an initial indication of mechanism of action. Rats were gavaged with fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS), galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS) or water for five weeks, prior to measurements of brain BDNF, NMDAR subunits and amino acids associated with glutamate neurotransmission (glutamate, glutamine, and serine and alanine enantiomers). Prebiotics increased hippocampal BDNF and NR1 subunit expression relative to controls. The intake of GOS also increased hippocampal NR2A subunits, and frontal cortex NR1 and d-serine. Prebiotics did not alter glutamate, glutamine, l-serine, l-alanine or d-alanine concentrations in the brain, though GOSfeeding raised plasma d-alanine. Elevated levels of plasma peptide YY (PYY) after GOS intake was observed. Plasma from GOS rats increased the release of BDNF from SH-SY5Y cells, but not in the presence of PYY antisera. The addition of synthetic PYY to SH-SY5Y cell cultures, also elevated BDNF secretion. We conclude that prebiotic-mediated proliferation of gut microbiota in rats, like probiotics, increases brain BDNF expression, possibly through the involvement of gut hormones. The effect of GOS on components of central NMDAR signalling was greater than FOS, and may reflect the proliferative potency of GOS on microbiota. Our data therefore, provide a sound basis to further investigate the utility of prebiotics in the maintenance of brain health and adjunctive treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders.

Effects of noise and by-catch on a Danish harbour porpoise population

Ships and wind turbines generate noise, which can have a negative impact on marine mammal populations by scaring animals away. Effective modelling of how this affects the populations has to take account of the location and timing of disturbances. Here we construct an individual-based model of harbour porpoises in the Inner Danish Waters. Individuals have their own energy budgets constructed using established principles of physiological ecology. Data are lacking on the spatial distribution of food which is instead inferred from knowledge of time-varying porpoise distributions. The model produces plausible patterns of population dynamics and matches well the age distribution of porpoises caught in by-catch. It estimates the effect of existing wind farms as a 10% reduction in population size when food recovers fast (after two days). Proposed new wind farms and ships do not result in further population declines. The population is however sensitive to variations in mortality resulting from by-catch and to the speed at which food recovers after being depleted. If food recovers slowly the effect of wind turbines becomes negligible, whereas ships are estimated to have a significant negative impact on the population. Annual by-catch rates ≥10% lead to monotonously decreasing populations and to extinction, and even the estimated by-catch rate from the adjacent area (approximately 4.1%) has a strong impact on the population. This suggests that conservation efforts should be more focused on reducing by-catch in commercial gillnet fisheries than on limiting the amount of anthropogenic noise. Individual-based models are unique in their ability to take account of the location and timing of disturbances and to show their likely effects on populations. The models also identify deficiencies in the existing database and can be used to set priorities for future field research.

Coordinated Cluster and ground-based instrument observations of transient changes in the magnetopause boundary layer during an interval of predominantly northward IMF: relation to reconnection pulses and FTE signatures

We study a series of transient entries into the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of all four Cluster spacecraft during an outbound pass through the mid-afternoon magnetopause ([X(GSM), Y(GSM), Z(GSM)] approximate to [2, 7, 9] R(E)). The events take place during an interval of northward IMF, as seen in the data from the ACE satellite and lagged by a propagation delay of 75 min that is well-defined by two separate studies: (1) the magnetospheric variations prior to the northward turning (Lockwood et al., 2001, this issue) and (2) the field clock angle seen by Cluster after it had emerged into the magnetosheath (Opgenoorth et al., 2001, this issue). With an additional lag of 16.5 min, the transient LLBL events cor-relate well with swings of the IMF clock angle (in GSM) to near 90degrees. Most of this additional lag is explained by ground-based observations, which reveal signatures of transient reconnection in the pre-noon sector that then take 10-15 min to propagate eastward to 15 MLT, where they are observed by Cluster. The eastward phase speed of these signatures agrees very well with the motion deduced by the cross-correlation of the signatures seen on the four Cluster spacecraft. The evidence that these events are reconnection pulses includes: transient erosion of the noon 630 nm (cusp/cleft) aurora to lower latitudes; transient and travelling enhancements of the flow into the polar cap, imaged by the AMIE technique; and poleward-moving events moving into the polar cap, seen by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR). A pass of the DMSP-F15 satellite reveals that the open field lines near noon have been opened for some time: the more recently opened field lines were found closer to dusk where the flow transient and the poleward-moving event intersected the satellite pass. The events at Cluster have ion and electron characteristics predicted and observed by Lockwood and Hapgood (1998) for a Flux Transfer Event (FTE), with allowance for magnetospheric ion reflection at Alfvenic disturbances in the magnetopause reconnection layer. Like FTEs, the events are about 1 R(E) in their direction of motion and show a rise in the magnetic field strength, but unlike FTEs, in general, they show no pressure excess in their core and hence, no characteristic bipolar signature in the boundary-normal component. However, most of the events were observed when the magnetic field was southward, i.e. on the edge of the interior magnetic cusp, or when the field was parallel to the magnetic equatorial plane. Only when the satellite begins to emerge from the exterior boundary (when the field was northward), do the events start to show a pressure excess in their core and the consequent bipolar signature. We identify the events as the first observations of FTEs at middle altitudes.

Predicting solar disturbance effects on navigation systems

A variety of operational systems are vulnerable to disruption by solar disturbances brought to the Earth by the solar wind. Of particular importance to navigation systems are energetic charged particles which can generate temporary malfunctions and permanent damage in satellites. Modern spacecraft technology may prove to be particularly at risk during the next maximum of the solar cycle. In addition, the associated ionospheric disturbances cause phase shifts of transionospheric and ionosphere-reflected signals, giving positioning errors and loss of signal for GPS and Loran-C positioning systems and for over-the-horizon radars. We now have sufficient understanding of the solar wind, and how it interacts with the Earth's magnetic field, to predict statistically the likely effects on operational systems over the next solar cycle. We also have a number of advanced ways of detecting and tracking these disturbances through space but we cannot, as yet, provide accurate forecasts of individual disturbances that could be used to protect satellites and to correct errors. In addition, we have recently discovered long-term changes in the Sun, which mean that the number and severity of the disturbances to operational systems are increasing.

Ionospheric and geomagnetic responses to changes in IMF B_Z: a superposed epoch study

Superposed epoch studies have been carried out in order to determine the ionospheric response at mid-latitudes to southward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This is compared with the geomagnetic response, as seen in the indices K p, AE and Dst. The solar wind, IMF and geomagnetic data used were hourly averages from the years 1967–1989 and thus cover a full 22-year cycle in the solar magnetic field. These data were divided into subsets, determined by the magnitudes of the southward turnings and the concomitant increase in solar wind pressure. The superposed epoch studies were carried out using the time of the southward turning as time zero. The response of the mid-latitude ionosphere is studied by looking at the F-layer critical frequencies, f o F2, from hourly soundings by the Slough ionosonde and their deviation from the monthly median values, δf o F2. For the southward turnings with a change in B z of δB z > 11.5 nT accompanied by a solar wind dynamic pressure P exceeding 5 nPa, the F region critical frequency, f o F2, shows a marked decrease, reaching a minimum value about 20 h after the southward turning. This recovers to pre-event values over the subsequent 24 h, on average. The Dst index shows the classic storm-time decrease to about −60 nT. Four days later, the index has still to fully recover and is at about −25 nT. Both the K p and AE indices show rises before the southward turnings, when the IMF is strongly northward but the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced. The average AE index does register a clear isolated pulse (averaging 650 nT for 2 h, compared with a background peak level of near 450 nT at these times) showing enhanced energy deposition at high latitudes in substorms but, like K p, remains somewhat enhanced for several days, even after the average IMF has returned to zero after 1 day. This AE background decays away over several days as the Dst index recovers, indicating that there is some contamination of the currents observed at the AE stations by the continuing enhanced equatorial ring current. For data averaged over all seasons, the critical frequencies are depressed at Slough by 1.3 MHz, which is close to the lower decile of the overall distribution of δf o Fl values. Taking 30-day periods around summer and winter solstice, the largest depression is 1.6 and 1.2 MHz, respectively. This seasonal dependence is confirmed by a similar study for a Southern Hemisphere station, Argentine Island, giving peak depressions of 1.8 MHz and 0.5 MHz for summer and winter. For the subset of turnings where δB z > 11.5 nT and P ≤ 5 nPa, the response of the geomagnetic indices is similar but smaller, while the change in δf o F2 has all but disappeared. This confirms that the energy deposited at high latitudes, which leads to the geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances following a southward turning of the IMF, increases with the energy density (dynamic pressure) of the solar wind flow. The magnitude of all responses are shown to depend on δB z . At Slough, the peak depression always occurs when Slough rotates into the noon sector. The largest ionospheric response is for southward turnings seen between 15–21 UT.

Pressure-driven magnetopause motions and attendant response on the ground

The terrestrial magnetopause suffered considerable sudden changes in its location on 9–10 September 1978. These magnetopause motions were accompanied by disturbances of the geomagnetic field on the ground. We present a study of the magnetopause motions and the ground magnetic signatures using, for the latter, 10 s averaged data from 14 high latitude ground magnetometer stations. Observations in the solar wind (from IMP 8) are employed and the motions of the magnetopause are monitored directly by the spacecraft ISEE 1 and 2. With these coordinated observations we are able to show that it is the sudden changes in the solar wind dynamic pressure that are responsible for the disturbances seen on the ground. At some ground stations we see evidence of a “ringing” of the magnetospheric cavity, while at others only the initial impulse is evident. We note that at some stations field perturbations closely match the hypothesized ground signatures of flux transfer events. In accordance with more recent work in the area (e.g. Potemra et al., 1989, J. geophys. Res., in press), we argue that causes other than impulsive reeonnection may produce the twin ionospheric flow vortex originally proposed as a flux transfer even signature.