Effectively Selecting a Target Population for a Future Comparative Study

When comparing a new treatment with a control in a randomized clinical study, the treatment effect is generally assessed by evaluating a summary measure over a specific study population. The success of the trial heavily depends on the choice of such a population. In this paper, we show a systematic, effective way to identify a promising population, for which the new treatment is expected to have a desired benefit, using the data from a current study involving similar comparator treatments. Specifically, with the existing data we first create a parametric scoring system using multiple covariates to estimate subject-specific treatment differences. Using this system, we specify a desired level of treatment difference and create a subgroup of patients, defined as those whose estimated scores exceed this threshold. An empirically calibrated group-specific treatment difference curve across a range of threshold values is constructed. The population of patients with any desired level of treatment benefit can then be identified accordingly. To avoid any ``self-serving'' bias, we utilize a cross-training-evaluation method for implementing the above two-step procedure. Lastly, we show how to select the best scoring system among all competing models. The proposals are illustrated with the data from two clinical trials in treating AIDS and cardiovascular diseases. Note that if we are not interested in designing a new study for comparing similar treatments, the new procedure can also be quite useful for the management of future patients who would receive nontrivial benefits to compensate for the risk or cost of the new treatment.

ASSESSING THE UNRELIABILITY OF THE MEDICAL LITERATURE: A RESPONSE TO "WHY MOST PUBLISHED RESEARCH FINDINGS ARE FALSE"

A recent article in this journal (Ioannidis JP (2005) Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Med 2: e124) argued that more than half of published research findings in the medical literature are false. In this commentary, we examine the structure of that argument, and show that it has three basic components: 1)An assumption that the prior probability of most hypotheses explored in medical research is below 50%. 2)Dichotomization of P-values at the 0.05 level and introduction of a “bias” factor (produced by significance-seeking), the combination of which severely weakens the evidence provided by every design. 3)Use of Bayes theorem to show that, in the face of weak evidence, hypotheses with low prior probabilities cannot have posterior probabilities over 50%. Thus, the claim is based on a priori assumptions that most tested hypotheses are likely to be false, and then the inferential model used makes it impossible for evidence from any study to overcome this handicap. We focus largely on step (2), explaining how the combination of dichotomization and “bias” dilutes experimental evidence, and showing how this dilution leads inevitably to the stated conclusion. We also demonstrate a fallacy in another important component of the argument –that papers in “hot” fields are more likely to produce false findings. We agree with the paper’s conclusions and recommendations that many medical research findings are less definitive than readers suspect, that P-values are widely misinterpreted, that bias of various forms is widespread, that multiple approaches are needed to prevent the literature from being systematically biased and the need for more data on the prevalence of false claims. But calculating the unreliability of the medical research literature, in whole or in part, requires more empirical evidence and different inferential models than were used. The claim that “most research findings are false for most research designs and for most fields” must be considered as yet unproven.

Whole-body MRI of multiple myeloma: comparison of different MRI sequences in assessment of different growth patterns

PURPOSE: To determine sensitivity, specificity and inter-observer variability of different whole-body MRI (WB-MRI) sequences in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). METHODS AND MATERIALS: WB-MRI using a 1.5T MRI scanner was performed in 23 consecutive patients (13 males, 10 females; mean age 63+/-12 years) with histologically proven MM. All patients were clinically classified according to infiltration (low-grade, n=7; intermediate-grade, n=7; high-grade, n=9) and to the staging system of Durie and Salmon PLUS (stage I, n=12; stage II, n=4; stage III, n=7). The control group consisted of 36 individuals without malignancy (25 males, 11 females; mean age 57+/-13 years). Two observers independently evaluated the following WB-MRI sequences: T1w-TSE (T1), T2w-TIRM (T2), and the combination of both sequences, including a contrast-enhanced T1w-TSE with fat-saturation (T1+/-CE/T2). They had to determine growth patterns (focal and/or diffuse) and the MRI sequence that provided the highest confidence level in depicting the MM lesions. Results were calculated on a per-patient basis. RESULTS: Visual detection of MM was as follows: T1, 65% (sensitivity)/85% (specificity); T2, 76%/81%; T1+/-CE/T2, 67%/88%. Inter-observer variability was as follows: T1, 0.3; T2, 0.55; T1+/-CE/T2, 0.55. Sensitivity improved depending on infiltration grade (T1: 1=60%; 2=36%; 3=83%; T2: 1=70%; 2=71%; 3=89%; T1+/-CE/T2: 1=50%; 2=50%; 3=89%) and clinical stage (T1: 1=58%; 2=63%; 3=79%; T2: 1=58%; 2=88%; 3=100%; T1+/-CE/T2: 1=50%; 2=63%; 3=100%). T2w-TIRM sequences achieved the best reliability in depicting the MM lesions (65% in the mean of both readers). CONCLUSIONS: T2w-TIRM sequences achieved the highest level of sensitivity and best reliability, and thus might be valuable for initial assessment of MM. For an exact staging and grading the examination protocol should encompass unenhanced and enhanced T1w-MRI sequences, in addition to T2w-TIRM.

Copper and human health: biochemistry, genetics, and strategies for modeling dose-response relationships

Copper (Cu) and its alloys are used extensively in domestic and industrial applications. Cu is also an essential element in mammalian nutrition. Since both copper deficiency and copper excess produce adverse health effects, the dose-response curve is U-shaped, although the precise form has not yet been well characterized. Many animal and human studies were conducted on copper to provide a rich database from which data suitable for modeling the dose-response relationship for copper may be extracted. Possible dose-response modeling strategies are considered in this review, including those based on the benchmark dose and categorical regression. The usefulness of biologically based dose-response modeling techniques in understanding copper toxicity was difficult to assess at this time since the mechanisms underlying copper-induced toxicity have yet to be fully elucidated. A dose-response modeling strategy for copper toxicity was proposed associated with both deficiency and excess. This modeling strategy was applied to multiple studies of copper-induced toxicity, standardized with respect to severity of adverse health outcomes and selected on the basis of criteria reflecting the quality and relevance of individual studies. The use of a comprehensive database on copper-induced toxicity is essential for dose-response modeling since there is insufficient information in any single study to adequately characterize copper dose-response relationships. The dose-response modeling strategy envisioned here is designed to determine whether the existing toxicity data for copper excess or deficiency may be effectively utilized in defining the limits of the homeostatic range in humans and other species. By considering alternative techniques for determining a point of departure and low-dose extrapolation (including categorical regression, the benchmark dose, and identification of observed no-effect levels) this strategy will identify which techniques are most suitable for this purpose. This analysis also serves to identify areas in which additional data are needed to better define the characteristics of dose-response relationships for copper-induced toxicity in relation to excess or deficiency.

Fluctuation analysis of lung function as a predictor of long-term response to beta2-agonists

The response to beta(2)-agonists differs between asthmatics and has been linked to subsequent adverse events, even death. Possible determinants include beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype at position 16, lung function and airway hyperresponsiveness. Fluctuation analysis provides a simple parameter alpha measuring the complex correlation properties of day-to-day peak expiratory flow. The present study investigated whether alpha predicts clinical response to beta(2)-agonist treatment, taking into account other conventional predictors. Analysis was performed on previously published twice-daily peak expiratory flow measurements in 66 asthmatic adults over three 6-month randomised order treatment periods: placebo, salbutamol and salmeterol. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the association between alpha during the placebo period and response to treatment (change in the number of days with symptoms), taking into account other predictors namely beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype, lung function and its variability, and airway hyperresponsiveness. The current authors found that alpha measured during the placebo period considerably improved the prediction of response to salmeterol treatment, taking into account genotype, lung function or its variability, or airway hyperresponsiveness. The present study provides further evidence that response to beta(2)-agonists is related to the time correlation properties of lung function in asthma. The current authors conclude that fluctuation analysis of lung function offers a novel predictor to identify patients who may respond well or poorly to treatment.

Review of assessment, design, and mitigation of multiple hazards

Large parts of the world are subjected to one or more natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons), costal inundation and flooding. Virtually the entire world is at risk of man-made hazards. In recent decades, rapid population growth and economic development in hazard-prone areas have greatly increased the potential of multiple hazards to cause damage and destruction of buildings, bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure; thus posing a grave danger to the community and disruption of economic and societal activities. Although an individual hazard is significant in many parts of the United States (U.S.), in certain areas more than one hazard may pose a threat to the constructed environment. In such areas, structural design and construction practices should address multiple hazards in an integrated manner to achieve structural performance that is consistent with owner expectations and general societal objectives. The growing interest and importance of multiple-hazard engineering has been recognized recently. This has spurred the evolution of multiple-hazard risk-assessment frameworks and development of design approaches which have paved way for future research towards sustainable construction of new and improved structures and retrofitting of the existing structures. This report provides a review of literature and the current state of practice for assessment, design and mitigation of the impact of multiple hazards on structural infrastructure. It also presents an overview of future research needs related to multiple-hazard performance of constructed facilities.

Energy harvesting from body motion using rotational micro-generation

Autonomous system applications are typically limited by the power supply operational lifetime when battery replacement is difficult or costly. A trade-off between battery size and battery life is usually calculated to determine the device capability and lifespan. As a result, energy harvesting research has gained importance as society searches for alternative energy sources for power generation. For instance, energy harvesting has been a proven alternative for powering solar-based calculators and self-winding wristwatches. Thus, the use of energy harvesting technology can make it possible to assist or replace batteries for portable, wearable, or surgically-implantable autonomous systems. Applications such as cardiac pacemakers or electrical stimulation applications can benefit from this approach since the number of surgeries for battery replacement can be reduced or eliminated. Research on energy scavenging from body motion has been investigated to evaluate the feasibility of powering wearable or implantable systems. Energy from walking has been previously extracted using generators placed on shoes, backpacks, and knee braces while producing power levels ranging from milliwatts to watts. The research presented in this paper examines the available power from walking and running at several body locations. The ankle, knee, hip, chest, wrist, elbow, upper arm, side of the head, and back of the head were the chosen target localizations. Joints were preferred since they experience the most drastic acceleration changes. For this, a motor-driven treadmill test was performed on 11 healthy individuals at several walking (1-4 mph) and running (2-5 mph) speeds. The treadmill test provided the acceleration magnitudes from the listed body locations. Power can be estimated from the treadmill evaluation since it is proportional to the acceleration and frequency of occurrence. Available power output from walking was determined to be greater than 1mW/cm³ for most body locations while being over 10mW/cm³ at the foot and ankle locations. Available power from running was found to be almost 10 times higher than that from walking. Most energy harvester topologies use linear generator approaches that are well suited to fixed-frequency vibrations with sub-millimeter amplitude oscillations. In contrast, body motion is characterized with a wide frequency spectrum and larger amplitudes. A generator prototype based on self-winding wristwatches is deemed to be appropriate for harvesting body motion since it is not limited to operate at fixed-frequencies or restricted displacements. Electromagnetic generation is typically favored because of its slightly higher power output per unit volume. Then, a nonharmonic oscillating rotational energy scavenger prototype is proposed to harness body motion. The electromagnetic generator follows the approach from small wind turbine designs that overcome the lack of a gearbox by using a larger number of coil and magnets arrangements. The device presented here is composed of a rotor with multiple-pole permanent magnets having an eccentric weight and a stator composed of stacked planar coils. The rotor oscillations induce a voltage on the planar coil due to the eccentric mass unbalance produced by body motion. A meso-scale prototype device was then built and evaluated for energy generation. The meso-scale casing and rotor were constructed on PMMA with the help of a CNC mill machine. Commercially available discrete magnets were encased in a 25mm rotor. Commercial copper-coated polyimide film was employed to manufacture the planar coils using MEMS fabrication processes. Jewel bearings were used to finalize the arrangement. The prototypes were also tested at the listed body locations. A meso-scale generator with a 2-layer coil was capable to extract up to 234 µW of power at the ankle while walking at 3mph with a 2cm³ prototype for a power density of 117 µW/cm³. This dissertation presents the analysis of available power from walking and running at different speeds and the development of an unobtrusive miniature energy harvesting generator for body motion. Power generation indicates the possibility of powering devices by extracting energy from body motion.

Vibro-acoustical analysis and design of a multiple-layer constrained viscoelastic damping structure

The goal of this research is to provide a framework for vibro-acoustical analysis and design of a multiple-layer constrained damping structure. The existing research on damping and viscoelastic damping mechanism is limited to the following four mainstream approaches: modeling techniques of damping treatments/materials; control through the electrical-mechanical effect using the piezoelectric layer; optimization by adjusting the parameters of the structure to meet the design requirements; and identification of the damping material’s properties through the response of the structure. This research proposes a systematic design methodology for the multiple-layer constrained damping beam giving consideration to vibro-acoustics. A modeling technique to study the vibro-acoustics of multiple-layered viscoelastic laminated beams using the Biot damping model is presented using a hybrid numerical model. The boundary element method (BEM) is used to model the acoustical cavity whereas the Finite Element Method (FEM) is the basis for vibration analysis of the multiple-layered beam structure. Through the proposed procedure, the analysis can easily be extended to other complex geometry with arbitrary boundary conditions. The nonlinear behavior of viscoelastic damping materials is represented by the Biot damping model taking into account the effects of frequency, temperature and different damping materials for individual layers. A curve-fitting procedure used to obtain the Biot constants for different damping materials for each temperature is explained. The results from structural vibration analysis for selected beams agree with published closed-form results and results for the radiated noise for a sample beam structure obtained using a commercial BEM software is compared with the acoustical results of the same beam with using the Biot damping model. The extension of the Biot damping model is demonstrated to study MDOF (Multiple Degrees of Freedom) dynamics equations of a discrete system in order to introduce different types of viscoelastic damping materials. The mechanical properties of viscoelastic damping materials such as shear modulus and loss factor change with respect to different ambient temperatures and frequencies. The application of multiple-layer treatment increases the damping characteristic of the structure significantly and thus helps to attenuate the vibration and noise for a broad range of frequency and temperature. The main contributions of this dissertation include the following three major tasks: 1) Study of the viscoelastic damping mechanism and the dynamics equation of a multilayer damped system incorporating the Biot damping model. 2) Building the Finite Element Method (FEM) model of the multiple-layer constrained viscoelastic damping beam and conducting the vibration analysis. 3) Extending the vibration problem to the Boundary Element Method (BEM) based acoustical problem and comparing the results with commercial simulation software.

The growth response of planted red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) to alternative thinning regimes

Red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) plantations have been established in Michigan with expectations of mixed final product goals: pulpwood, boltwood and possibly sawlogs. The effects of alternative treatments on tree and stand attributes were examined in: the Atlantic Mine trial, thinned in spring 2006 with three alternatives: (1) every fifth row removal plus crown thinning, (2) every third row removal plus crown thinning and (3) every third row removal plus thinning from below; the Crane Lake trial, thinned in fall 2004 with two alternatives: (1) every third row removal and (2) every third row removal plus thinning from above; the Middle Branch East trial, thinned in fall 2004 with two alternatives: (1) every third row removal plus one in three remaining trees and (2) every third row removal plus one in five remaining trees. All trials included control plots where no thinning was applied. The trials were established in the field as a randomized complete block experiments, in which individual trees were measured in 3-4 fixed-area plots located within each treatment unit. Growth responses of diameter at breast height, height, live crown length, stand basal area and stand volume were examined along with their increments. The Tukey multiple comparison test was used to detect significant differences between treatments in their effect on tree growth response. The results showed that diameter increment increased with increasing thinning intensity and was significantly larger in thinned plots compared to unthinned. Treatments did not substantially affect average tree height increment. Stand basal area increment was significantly larger in the control plot only the year after the harvest. Volume increment was significantly larger in controls, but did not differ considerably among remaining treatments. However, the ratio of volume increment to standing volume was significantly smaller in unthinned plots compared to thinned. Since thinning treatments in all trials hardly ever differed significantly in their effect on stand growth response, mainly due to the relatively short time of the evaluation, heavier thinnings should be favored due to higher volume increment rates and shorter time needed to reach desirable diameters. Nevertheless, economic evaluation based on obtained results will be conducted in the future in order to make final decisions about the most profitable treatment.

Micro-fabrication of bio-MEMS based force sensor to measure the force response of living cells

Understanding how a living cell behaves has become a very important topic in today’s research field. Hence, different sensors and testing devices have been designed to test the mechanical properties of these living cells. This thesis presents a method of micro-fabricating a bio-MEMS based force sensor which is used to measure the force response of living cells. Initially, the basic concepts of MEMS have been discussed and the different micro-fabrication techniques used to manufacture various MEMS devices have been described. There have been many MEMS based devices manufactured and employed for testing many nano-materials and bio-materials. Each of the MEMS based devices described in this thesis use a novel concept of testing the specimens. The different specimens tested are nano-tubes, nano-wires, thin film membranes and biological living cells. Hence, these different devices used for material testing and cell mechanics have been explained. The micro-fabrication techniques used to fabricate this force sensor has been described and the experiments preformed to successfully characterize each step in the fabrication have been explained. The fabrication of this force sensor is based on the facilities available at Michigan Technological University. There are some interesting and uncommon concepts in MEMS which have been observed during this fabrication. These concepts in MEMS which have been observed are shown in multiple SEM images.

IDENTIFICATION OF GENES CONTROLLING BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES AND PATHWAYS THROUGH STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND NETWORK RECONSTRUCTION

The developmental processes and functions of an organism are controlled by the genes and the proteins that are derived from these genes. The identification of key genes and the reconstruction of gene networks can provide a model to help us understand the regulatory mechanisms for the initiation and progression of biological processes or functional abnormalities (e.g. diseases) in living organisms. In this dissertation, I have developed statistical methods to identify the genes and transcription factors (TFs) involved in biological processes, constructed their regulatory networks, and also evaluated some existing association methods to find robust methods for coexpression analyses. Two kinds of data sets were used for this work: genotype data and gene expression microarray data. On the basis of these data sets, this dissertation has two major parts, together forming six chapters. The first part deals with developing association methods for rare variants using genotype data (chapter 4 and 5). The second part deals with developing and/or evaluating statistical methods to identify genes and TFs involved in biological processes, and construction of their regulatory networks using gene expression data (chapter 2, 3, and 6). For the first part, I have developed two methods to find the groupwise association of rare variants with given diseases or traits. The first method is based on kernel machine learning and can be applied to both quantitative as well as qualitative traits. Simulation results showed that the proposed method has improved power over the existing weighted sum method (WS) in most settings. The second method uses multiple phenotypes to select a few top significant genes. It then finds the association of each gene with each phenotype while controlling the population stratification by adjusting the data for ancestry using principal components. This method was applied to GAW 17 data and was able to find several disease risk genes. For the second part, I have worked on three problems. First problem involved evaluation of eight gene association methods. A very comprehensive comparison of these methods with further analysis clearly demonstrates the distinct and common performance of these eight gene association methods. For the second problem, an algorithm named the bottom-up graphical Gaussian model was developed to identify the TFs that regulate pathway genes and reconstruct their hierarchical regulatory networks. This algorithm has produced very significant results and it is the first report to produce such hierarchical networks for these pathways. The third problem dealt with developing another algorithm called the top-down graphical Gaussian model that identifies the network governed by a specific TF. The network produced by the algorithm is proven to be of very high accuracy.

Effect of interferon-beta and atorvastatin on Th1/Th2 cytokines in multiple sclerosis

Beneficial effects by both interferon-beta and statin treatment in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) may be linked to interference with the Th1/Th2 cytokine balance. We determined patterns of Th1/Th2 cytokines (interleukin (IL)-1beta, IL-2, IL-6, IL-12p70, tumor-necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha and interferon-gamma, and IL-4, IL-5 and IL-10, respectively) in the serum of patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with 250microg interferon-beta 1b or with interferon-beta plus 40mg atorvastatin. In treatment naïve patients with MS, a trend for lower TNF-alpha serum levels compared to controls was detected (P=0.08). Interferon-beta treatment increased TNF-alpha levels, while a trend for lowering of IL-5 serum levels was found (P=0.07). Addition of atorvastatin raised IL-12p70 serum levels (P<0.05). Mean levels of two Th2 cytokines (IL-4, IL-10) showed a non-significant increase after addition of atorvastatin. We conclude that interferon-beta and atorvastatin exert divergent action on Th1/Th2 serum cytokines levels in MS. Supplemental atorvastatin might promote a Th1-type response by raising IL-12p70. Further studies are required to support a Th2 cytokine shift by atorvastatin in patients with MS.

PTH and 1.25 vitamin D response to a low-calcium diet is associated with bone mineral density in renal stone formers

BACKGROUND: Renal calcium stones and hypercalciuria are associated with a reduced bone mineral density (BMD). Therefore, the effect of changes in calcium homeostasis is of interest for both stones and bones. We hypothesized that the response of calciuria, parathyroid hormone (PTH) and 1.25 vitamin D to changes in dietary calcium might be related to BMD. METHODS: A single-centre prospective interventional study of 94 hyper- and non-hypercalciuric calcium stone formers consecutively retrieved from our stone clinic. The patients were investigated on a free-choice diet, a low-calcium diet, while fasting and after an oral calcium load. Patient groups were defined according to lumbar BMD (z-score) obtained by dual X-ray absorptiometry (group 1: z-score <-0.5, n = 30; group 2: z-score -0.5-0.5, n = 36; group 3: z-score >0.5, n = 28). The effect of the dietary interventions on calciuria, 1.25 vitamin D and PTH in relation to BMD was measured. RESULTS: An inverse relationship between BMD and calciuria was observed on all four calcium intakes (P = 0.009). On a free-choice diet, 1.25 vitamin D and PTH levels were identical in the three patient groups. However, the relative responses of 1.25 vitamin D and PTH to the low-calcium diet were opposite in the three groups with the highest increase of 1.25 vitamin D in group 1 and the lowest in group 3, whereas PTH increase was most pronounced in group 3 and least in group 1. CONCLUSION: Calcium stone formers with a low lumbar BMD exhibit a blunted response of PTH release and an apparently overshooting production of 1.25 vitamin D following a low-calcium diet.

Predictors of inflammation in response to anthracycline-based chemotherapy for breast cancer

Although chemotherapy for breast cancer can increase inflammation, few studies have examined predictors of this phenomenon. This study examined potential contributions of demographics, disease characteristics, and treatment regimens to markers of inflammation in response to chemotherapy for breast cancer. Thirty-five women with stage I-III-A breast cancer (mean age 50 years) were studied prior to cycle 1 and prior to cycle 4 of anthracycline-based chemotherapy. Circulating levels of inflammatory markers with high relevance to breast cancer were examined, including C-reactive protein (CRP), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), Interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL1-RA), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), Interleukin- (IL-6), soluble P-selectin (sP-selectin), and von Willebrand factor (vWf). Chemotherapy was associated with elevations in VEGF (p < or = 0.01), sICAM-1 (p < or = 0.01), sP-selectin (p < or = 0.02) and vWf (p < or = 0.05). Multiple regression analysis controlling for age and body mass index (BMI) showed that higher post-chemotherapy levels of inflammation were consistently related to higher pre-chemotherapy levels of inflammation (ps < or =0.05) as well as to certain disease characteristics. Post-chemotherapy IL-6 levels were higher in patients who had larger tumors (p < or = 0.05) while post-chemotherapy VEGF levels were higher in patients who had smaller tumors (p < or = 0.05). Post-chemotherapy sP-selectin levels were highest in women who had received epirubicin, cytoxan, 5-fluorouracil chemotherapy (p < or = 0.01). These findings indicate that chemotherapy treatment can be associated with elevations in certain markers of inflammation, particularly markers of endothelial and platelet activation. Inflammation in response to chemotherapy is most significantly related to inflammation that existed prior to chemotherapy but also potentially to treatment regimen and to certain disease characteristics.