Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

Investigating mineralocorticoid hypertension.

About 3% of our hypertensive patients have high blood pressure induced by corticosteroids. Muscle weakness, tiredness, polyuria and polydipsia may indicate hypokalaemia. Hypokalaemic hypertension in the presence of a low plasma renin activity is the typical finding of corticosteroid hypertension. The most frequent cause of corticosteroid hypertension is primary aldosteronism (Conn's syndrome) due to an adrenal adenoma or bilateral hyperplasia of the adrenal glands. The plasma concentration of aldosterone and the ratio between plasma aldosterone and renin concentrations are high, and the kaliuresis exceeds 30 mmol/24 h in the presence of hypokalaemia. Adrenal carcinomas are rare and very malignant. The localization of an adrenal tumour is made by computer tomography (CT-scan) or nuclear magnetic resonance imaging and by measurement of the aldosterone/cortisol concentrations in the adrenal venous blood. Adenomas are removed under laparoscopy, and adrenal hyperplasias are treated with spironolactone (50-400 mg daily) or amiloride (5-30 mg daily). In rare cases (<1%), excessive stimulation of the mineralocorticoid receptor is due to cortisol (apparent mineralocorticoid excess, Cushing's disease, liquorice, or hereditary deficiency of 11beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase) or to a chimeric gene coding for 11beta-hydroxylase (CYP11B1/CYP11B2). In these rare cases, the synthesis of aldosterone is under the control of the adrenocorticotrophic hormone, so treatment with glucocorticoids (dexamethasone 0.25-1.0 mg daily) is therefore possible (glucocorticoid-remediable aldosteronism). Excessive deoxycorticosterone (DOC) causes the same symptoms and signs as hyperaldosteronism. Excessive DOC is found in patients with adrenal tumours that secrete DOC, in those with hereditary or acquired disorders with dysfunctioning glucocorticoid receptors, or in those with congenital hyperplasia of the adrenal glands (deficiency of 17alpha-hydroxylase or 11beta-hydroxylase). Liddle's syndrome is a constitutive hyperactivity of the transepithelial transport of sodium, which under normal conditions is controlled by the mineralocorticoid receptor. Plasma renin and aldosterone concentrations are suppressed and the plasma potassium concentration may be normal. In contrast, plasma aldosterone and renin concentrations are increased in patients with hypokalaemic hypertension which represents secondary aldosteronism. The increased aldosterone is the consequence of stimulated renin activity due to renal or renovascular or other disorders, antihypertensive drugs or other medications. In conclusion, a work-up for corticosteroid-induced hypertension is indicated in patients with hypokalaemic hypertension and in those with severe hypertension even in the absence of hypokalaemia, and in hypertensive patients with a family history of cardiovascular diseases.

Statistical analysis of maximum likelihood estimator images of human brain FDG PET studies

The work presented evaluates the statistical characteristics of regional bias and expected error in reconstructions of real positron emission tomography (PET) data of human brain fluoro-deoxiglucose (FDG) studies carried out by the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) method with a robust stopping rule, and compares them with the results of filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstructions and with the method of sieves. The task of evaluating radioisotope uptake in regions-of-interest (ROIs) is investigated. An assessment of bias and variance in uptake measurements is carried out with simulated data. Then, by using three different transition matrices with different degrees of accuracy and a components of variance model for statistical analysis, it is shown that the characteristics obtained from real human FDG brain data are consistent with the results of the simulation studies.

Infrequent transmission of HIV-1 drug-resistant variants.

Transmission of drug-resistant variants is influenced by several factors, including the prevalence of drug resistance in the population of HIV-1-infected patients, HIV-1 RNA levels and transmission by recently infected patients. In order to evaluate the impact of these factors on the transmission of drug-resistant variants, we have defined the population of potential transmitters and compared their resistance profiles to those of newly infected patients. Sequencing of pol gene was performed in 220 recently infected patients and in 373 chronically infected patients with HIV-1 RNA >1000 copies/ml. Minimal and maximal drug-resistance profiles of potential transmitters were estimated by weighting resistance profiles of chronically infected patients with estimates of the Swiss HIV-1-infected population, the prevalence of exposure to antiviral drugs and the proportion of infections attributed to primary HIV infections. The drug-resistance prevalence in recently infected patients was 10.5% (one class drug resistance: 9.1%; two classes: 1.4%; three classes: 0%). Phylogenetic analysis revealed significant clustering for 30% of recent infections. The drug-resistance prevalence in chronically infected patients was 72.4% (one class: 29%; two classes: 27.6%; three classes: 15.8%). After adjustment, the risk of transmission relative to wild-type was reduced both for one class drug resistance (minimal and maximal estimates: odds ratio: 0.39, P<0.001; and odds ratio: 0.55, P=0.011, respectively), and for two to three class drug resistance (odds ratios: 0.05 and 0.07, respectively, P<0.001). Neither sexual behaviour nor HIV-1 RNA levels explained the low transmission of drug-resistant variants. These data suggest that drug-resistant variants and in particular multidrug-resistant variants have a substantially reduced transmission capacity.

Critères de diagnostic de la fibromyalgie [Fibromyalgia diagnostic criteria].

Fibromyalgia is nowadays an object of controversy. It is the most significant painful and chronic pathology, with a prevalence of 2 to 4% in the general population and a ratio of 3.5% of women for 0.5% of men. Since 1990, fibromyalgia has been defined according to the criteria of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR). The use of these criteria in practice has proved to be controversial and a wide range of studies has shown that an important percentage of patients with fibromyalgia are diagnosed without the criteria of the ACR. This article describes an alternative method for the diagnosis of fibromyalgia.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Evaluation of Electronic Speed Limit Signs on US 30, September, 2011

This study documents the speed reduction impacts of two dynamic, electronic school zone speed limit signs at United Community Schools between Ames and Boone, Iowa. The school facility is situated along US Highway 30, a rural four-lane divided expressway. Due to concerns about high speeds in the area, the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) decided to replace the original static school zone speed limit signs, which had flashing beacons during school start and dismissal times (Figure 1), with electronic speed signs that only display the reduced school speed limit of 55 mph during school arrival and dismissal times (Figure 2). The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) at Iowa State University (ISU) conducted a speed evaluation study one week before and 1 month, 7 months, and 14 or 15 months after the new signs were installed. Overall, the new dynamic school zone speed limit signs were more effective in reducing speeds than the original static signs with flashing beacons in the 1 month after period. During the 7 and 14 month after period, speeds increased slightly for the eastbound direction of traffic. However, the increases were consistent with overall speed increases that occurred independent of the signs. The dynamic, electronic signs were effective for the westbound direction of traffic for all time periods and for both start and dismissal times. Even though only modest changes in mean and 85th percentile speeds occurred, with the speed decreases, the number of vehicles exceeding the school speed limit decreased significantly, indicating the signs had a significant impact on high-end speeders.

Main-Channel Slopes of Selected Streams in Iowa for Estimation of Flood-Frequency Discharges, November 2004

This report describes a statewide study conducted to develop main-channel slope (MCS) curves for 138 selected streams in Iowa with drainage areas greater than 100 square miles. MCS values determined from the curves can be used in regression equations for estimating flood frequency discharges. Multi-variable regression equations previously developed for two of the three hydrologic regions defined for Iowa require the measurement of MCS. Main-channel slope is a difficult measurement to obtain for large streams using 1:24,000-scale topographic maps. The curves developed in this report provide a simplified method for determining MCS values for sites located along large streams in Iowa within hydrologic Regions 2 and 3. The curves were developed using MCS values quantified for 2,058 selected sites along 138 selected streams in Iowa. A geographic information system (GIS) technique and 1:24,000-scale topographic data were used to quantify MCS values for the stream sites. The sites were selected at about 5-mile intervals along the streams. River miles were quantified for each stream site using a GIS program. Data points for river-mile and MCS values were plotted and a best-fit curve was developed for each stream. An adjustment was applied to all 138 curves to compensate for differences in MCS values between manual measurements and GIS quantification. The multi-variable equations for Regions 2 and 3 were developed using manual measurements of MCS. A comparison of manual measurements and GIS quantification of MCS indicates that manual measurements typically produce greater values of MCS compared to GIS quantification. Median differences between manual measurements and GIS quantification of MCS are 14.8 and 17.7 percent for Regions 2 and 3, respectively. Comparisons of percentage differences between flood-frequency discharges calculated using MCS values of manual measurements and GIS quantification indicate that use of GIS values of MCS for Region 3 substantially underestimate flood discharges. Mean and median percentage differences for 2- to 500-year recurrence-interval flood discharges ranged from 5.0 to 5.3 and 4.3 to 4.5 percent, respectively, for Region 2 and ranged from 18.3 to 27.1 and 12.3 to 17.3 percent for Region 3. The MCS curves developed from GIS quantification were adjusted by 14.8 percent for streams located in Region 2 and by 17.7 percent for streams located in Region 3. Comparisons of percentage differences between flood discharges calculated using MCS values of manual measurements and adjusted-GIS quantification for Regions 2 and 3 indicate that the flood-discharge estimates are comparable. For Region 2, mean percentage differences for 2- to 500-year recurrence-interval flood discharges ranged between 0.6 and 0.8 percent and median differences were 0.0 percent. For Region 3, mean and median differences ranged between 5.4 to 8.4 and 0.0 to 0.3 percent, respectively. A list of selected stream sites presented with each curve provides information about the sites including river miles, drainage areas, the location of U.S. Geological Survey stream flowgage stations, and the location of streams Abstract crossing hydro logic region boundaries or the Des Moines Lobe landforms region boundary. Two examples are presented for determining river-mile and MCS values, and two techniques are presented for computing flood-frequency discharges.

Evaluation of Hot Mix Asphalt Moisture Sensitivity Using the Nottingham Asphalt Test Equipment, July 2005

Moisture sensitivity of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) mixtures, generally called stripping, is a major form of distress in asphalt concrete pavement. It is characterized by the loss of adhesive bond between the asphalt binder and the aggregate (a failure of the bonding of the binder to the aggregate) or by a softening of the cohesive bonds within the asphalt binder (a failure within the binder itself), both of which are due to the action of loading under traffic in the presence of moisture. The evaluation of HMA moisture sensitivity has been divided into two categories: visual inspection test and mechanical test. However, most of them have been developed in pre-Superpave mix design. This research was undertaken to develop a protocol for evaluating the moisture sensitivity potential of HMA mixtures using the Nottingham Asphalt Tester (NAT). The mechanisms of HMA moisture sensitivity were reviewed and the test protocols using the NAT were developed. Different types of blends as moisture-sensitive groups and non-moisture-sensitive groups were used to evaluate the potential of the proposed test. The test results were analyzed with three parameters based on performance character: the retained flow number depending on critical permanent deformation failure (RFNP), the retained flow number depending on cohesion failure (RFNC), and energy ratio (ER). Analysis based on energy ratio of elastic strain (EREE ) at flow number of cohesion failure (FNC) has higher potential to evaluate the HMA moisture sensitivity than other parameters. If the measurement error in data-acquisition process is removed, analyses based on RFNP and RFNC would also have high potential to evaluate the HMA moisture sensitivity. The vacuum pressure saturation used in AASHTO T 283 and proposed test has a risk to damage specimen before the load applying.

Geometric morphometric analyses provide evidence for the adaptive character of the Tanganyikan cichlid fish radiations.

The cichlids of East Africa are renowned as one of the most spectacular examples of adaptive radiation. They provide a unique opportunity to investigate the relationships between ecology, morphological diversity, and phylogeny in producing such remarkable diversity. Nevertheless, the parameters of the adaptive radiations of these fish have not been satisfactorily quantified yet. Lake Tanganyika possesses all of the major lineages of East African cichlid fish, so by using geometric morphometrics and comparative analyses of ecology and morphology, in an explicitly phylogenetic context, we quantify the role of ecology in driving adaptive speciation. We used geometric morphometric methods to describe the body shape of over 1000 specimens of East African cichlid fish, with a focus on the Lake Tanganyika species assemblage, which is composed of more than 200 endemic species. The main differences in shape concern the length of the whole body and the relative sizes of the head and caudal peduncle. We investigated the influence of phylogeny on similarity of shape using both distance-based and variance partitioning methods, finding that phylogenetic inertia exerts little influence on overall body shape. Therefore, we quantified the relative effect of major ecological traits on shape using phylogenetic generalized least squares and disparity analyses. These analyses conclude that body shape is most strongly predicted by feeding preferences (i.e., trophic niches) and the water depths at which species occur. Furthermore, the morphological disparity within tribes indicates that even though the morphological diversification associated with explosive speciation has happened in only a few tribes of the Tanganyikan assemblage, the potential to evolve diverse morphologies exists in all tribes. Quantitative data support the existence of extensive parallelism in several independent adaptive radiations in Lake Tanganyika. Notably, Tanganyikan mouthbrooders belonging to the C-lineage and the substrate spawning Lamprologini have evolved a multitude of different shapes from elongated and Lamprologus-like hypothetical ancestors. Together, these data demonstrate strong support for the adaptive character of East African cichlid radiations.

Portal vein embolization: what do we know?

Portal vein embolization (PVE) has been developed to increase the size of the future remnant liver (FRL) left in place after major hepatectomy, thus reducing the risk of postoperative liver insufficiency. PVE consist in embolizing preoperatively portal branches of the segments that will be resected. Indication is based on preoperative measurements of the FRL by computed tomography and its ratio with either the theoretical liver volume or by direct measurement of the functional liver volume. After PVE, the volume and function of the FRL increases in 3 to 6 weeks, permitting extensive resections in patients otherwise contraindicated for liver resection. The PVE technique is variable from one center to another; however n-butyl-cyano-acrylate provides an interesting compromise between hypertrophy rate and procedure risk.

Aggregate stability by the "high energy moisture characteristic" method in an oxisol under differentiated management

Studies testing the High Energy Moisture Characteristic (HEMC) technique in tropical soils are still incipient. By this method, the effects of different management systems can be evaluated. This study investigated the aggregation state of an Oxisol under coffee with Brachiaria between crop rows and surface-applied gypsum rates using HEMC. Soil in an experimental area in the Upper São Francisco region, Minas Gerais, was studied at depths of 0.05 and 0.20 m in coffee rows. The treatments consisted of 0, 7, and 28 Mg ha-1 of agricultural gypsum rates distributed on the soil surface of the coffee rows, between which Brachiaria was grown and periodically cut, and compared with a treatment without Brachiaria between coffee rows and no gypsum application. To determine the aggregation state using the HEMC method, soil aggregates were placed in a Büchner funnel (500 mL) and wetted using a peristaltic pump with a volumetric syringe. The wetting was applied increasingly at two pre-set speeds: slow (2 mm h-1) and fast (100 mm h-1). Once saturated, the aggregates were exposed to a gradually increasing tension by the displacement of a water column (varying from 0 to 30 cm) to obtain the moisture retention curve [M = f (Ψ) ], underlying the calculation of the stability parameters: modal suction, volume of drainable pores (VDP), stability index (slow and fast), VDP ratio, and stability ratio. The HEMC method conferred sensitivity in quantifying the aggregate stability parameters, and independent of whether gypsum was used, the soil managed with Brachiaria between the coffee rows, with regular cuts discharged in the crop row direction, exhibited a decreased susceptibility to disaggregation.

Intrathecal drug delivery systems for cancer pain

Introduction: A substantial number of patients with cancer suffer considerable pain at some point during their disease, and approximately 25% of cancer patients die in pain. In cases of uncontrolled pain or intolerable side effects, intrathecal drug delivery system (IDDS) is a recognised management option. Indeed, IDDS offer rapid and effective pain relief with less drug side effects compared to oral or parenteral administration. The aim of this study is to retrospectively review our series of cancer patients treated with IDDS. Method: Data was extracted from the institutional neuromodulation registry. Patients with cancer pain treated with IDDS from 01.01.1997 to 30.12.2009 were analysed for subjective improvement, changes in pain intensity (VAS) and survival time after implantation. Measurements were available for a decreasing number of patients as time since baseline increased. Results: During the studied period, 78 patients were implanted with IDDS for cancer pain. The mean survival time was 11.1 months (median: 3.8 months) and 14 patients (18%) were still alive at the end of the studied period. Subjective improvement was graded between 55 and 83% during the first year. Mean VAS during the first year remained lower than VAS at baseline. Discussion: IDDS has been shown to be cost-effective in several studies. Although initial costs of implantation are high, the cost benefits favour analgesia with implanted intrathecal pumps over epidural external systems after 3 to 6 months in cancer patients. Improved survival has been associated with IDDS and in this series both the mean and median survival times were above the cut-off value of three months. The mean subjective improvement was above 50% during the whole first year, suggesting a good efficacy of the treatment, a finding that is consistent with the results from other groups. Changes in pain intensity are difficult to interpret in the context of rapidly progressive disease such as in terminal cancer. However, mean VAS from 1 thru12 months were lower than baseline, suggesting improved pain control with IDDS, or at least a stabilisation of the pain symptoms. Conclusion: Our retrospective series suggests IDDS is effective in intractable cancer pain and we believe it should be considered even in terminally ill patients with limited life expectancies.

Ranking of HMA Moisture Sensitivity Tests in Iowa, RB00-012, 2012

Several agencies specify AASHTO T283 as the primary test for field acceptance of moisture susceptibility in hot mix asphalt. When used in this application, logistical difficulties challenge its practicality, while repeatability is routinely scrutinized by contractors. An alternative test is needed which can effectively demonstrate the ability to screen mixtures based on expected performance. The ideal replacement can be validated with field performance, is repeatable, and allows for prompt reporting of results. Dynamic modulus, flow number, AASHTO T283, Hamburg wheel tracking device (HWTD), and the moisture induced sensitivity test (MIST) were performed on plant produced surface mixes in Iowa. Follow-up distress surveys were used to rank the mixes by their performance. The rankings indicate both the quantity of swelling from MIST conditioning and submersed flow number matched the performance ranking of all but one mixture. Hamburg testing parameters also appear effective, namely the stripping inflection point and the ratio between stripping slope and the creep slope. Dynamic modulus testing was ineffective, followed by AASHTO T283 and ratios produced from flow number results of conditioned samples.