Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

Investigation on the development of bidding strategies for a wind farm owner

In this paper, the development of bidding strategies is investigated for a wind farm owner. The optimization model is characterized by making the analysis of scenarios. The proposed approach allows evaluating alternative production strategies in order to submit bids to the electricity market with the goal of maximizing profits. The problem is formulated as a linear programming problem. An application to a case study is presented

Epidemiological methods for research with drug misusers: review of methods for studying prevalence and morbidity

Epidemiological studies of drug misusers have until recently relied on two main forms of sampling: probability and convenience. The former has been used when the aim was simply to estimate the prevalence of the condition and the latter when in depth studies of the characteristics, profiles and behaviour of drug users were required, but each method has its limitations. Probability samples become impracticable when the prevalence of the condition is very low, less than 0.5% for example, or when the condition being studied is a clandestine activity such as illicit drug use. When stratified random samples are used, it may be difficult to obtain a truly representative sample, depending on the quality of the information used to develop the stratification strategy. The main limitation of studies using convenience samples is that the results cannot be generalised to the whole population of drug users due to selection bias and a lack of information concerning the sampling frame. New methods have been developed which aim to overcome some of these difficulties, for example, social network analysis, snowball sampling, capture-recapture techniques, privileged access interviewer method and contact tracing. All these methods have been applied to the study of drug misuse. The various methods are described and examples of their use given, drawn from both the Brazilian and international drug misuse literature.

Return premiums of sustainable companies listed on the Spanish stock market

The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether companies with a greater commitment to corporate social responsibility (SRI companies) perform differently on the stock market compared to companies that disregard SRI. Over recent years, this relationship has been taken up at both a theoretical and practical level, and has led to extensive scientific research of an empirical nature involving the examination of the relationships existing between the financial and social, environmental and corporate governance performance of a company and the relationship between SRI and investment decisions in the financial market. More specifically, this work provides empirical evidence for the Spanish market as to whether or not belonging to a group of companies the market classes as sustainable results in return premiums that set them apart from companies classed as conventional, and finds no differences in the stock market performance of companies considered to be SRI or conventional.

Is stock market volatility persistent? A fractionally integrated approach

This paper seeks to study the persistence in the G7’s stock market volatility, which is carried out using the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH models. The data set consists of the daily returns of the S&P/TSX 60, CAC 40, DAX 30, MIB 30, NIKKEI 225, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 indexes over the period 1999-2009. The results evidences long memory in volatility, which is more pronounced in Germany, Italy and France. On the other hand, Japan appears as the country where this phenomenon is less obvious; nevertheless, the persistence prevails but with minor intensity.

What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market

This paper studies the evolution of the default risk premia for European firms during the years surrounding the recent credit crisis. We employ the information embedded in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Moody’s KMV EDF default probabilities to analyze the common factors driving this risk premia. The risk premium is characterized in several directions: Firstly, we perform a panel data analysis to capture the relationship between CDS spreads and actual default probabilities. Secondly, we employ the intensity framework of Jarrow et al. (2005) in order to measure the theoretical effect of risk premium on expected bond returns. Thirdly, we carry out a dynamic panel data to identify the macroeconomic sources of risk premium. Finally, a vector autoregressive model analyzes which proportion of the co-movement is attributable to financial or macro variables. Our estimations report coefficients for risk premium substantially higher than previously referred for US firms and a time varying behavior. A dominant factor explains around 60% of the common movements in risk premia. Additionally, empirical evidence suggests a public-to-private risk transfer between the sovereign CDS spreads and corporate risk premia.

Evidence of portuguese stock market abnormal returns

According to the stock market efficiency theory, it is not possible to consistently beat the market. However, technical analysis is more and more spread as an efficient way to achieve abnormal returns. In fact there is evidence that momentum investing strategies provide abnormal returns in different stock markets, Jegadeesh, N. and Titman, S. (1993), George, T. and Hwang, C. (2004) and Du, D. (2009). In this work we study if like other markets, the Portuguese stock market also allows to obtain abnormal returns, using a strategy that consists in picking stocks according to their past performance. Our work confirms the results of Soares, J. and Serra, A. (2005) and Pereira, P. (2009), showing that an investor can get abnormal returns investing in momentum portfolios. The Portuguese stock market evidences momentum returns in short term, exhibiting reversal in long term.

Industry concentration and market volatility

In this paper our aim is to gain a better understanding of the relationship between market volatility and industrial structure. As conflicting results have been documented regarding the relationship between market industry concentration and market volatility, this study investigates this relationship in the time series. We have found that this relationship is only significant and positive for Spain. Our results suggest that we cannot generalize across different countries that market industrial structure (concentration) is a significant factor in explaining market volatility.

The role of an illiquidity factor in the Portuguese stock market

This study examines the role of illiquidity (proxied by the proportion of zero returns) as an additional risk factor in asset pricing. We use Portuguese monthly data, covering the period between January 1988 and December 2008. We compute an illiquidity factor using the Fama and French [Fama, E. F., and K. R. French (1993), "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds", Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 33, Nº. 1, pp. 3-56] procedure and analyze the performance of CAPM, Fama-French three-factor model and illiquidity-augmented versions of these models in explaining both the time-series and the cross-section of returns. Our results reveal that the effect of characteristic liquidity is subsumed by the models considered, but the risk of illiquidity is not priced in the Portuguese stock market.

The Interpretation of Verbal Probability Expressions Used in the IAS/IFRS: the auditors Rrgistered with the portuguese securities market commission

One of the main arguments in favour of the adoption and convergence with the international accounting standards published by the IASB (i.e. IAS/IFRS) is that these will allow comparability of financial reporting across countries. However, because these standards use verbal probability expressions (v.g. “probable”) when establishing the recognition and disclosure criteria for accounting elements, they require professional accountants to interpret and classify the probability of an outcome or event taking into account those terms and expressions and to best decide in terms of financial reporting. This paper reports part of a research we carried out on the interpretation of “in context” verbal probability expressions used in the IAS/IFRS by the auditors registered with the Portuguese Securities Market Commission, the Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (CMVM). Our results provide support for the hypothesis that culture affects the CMVM registered auditors’ interpretation of verbal probability expressions through its influence on the accounting value (or attitude) of conservatism. Our results also suggest that there are significant differences in their interpretation of the term “probable”, which is consistent with literature in general. Since “probable” is the most frequent verbal probability expression used in the IAS/IFRS, this may have a negative impact on financial statements comparability.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abordagem ao risco de crédito no âmbito do acordo de Basileia III em Portugal

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

O Processo de gestão de risco nas organizações

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientada por Mestre Carlos Manuel Antunes Mendes