Is Information Power? Using Mobile Phones and Free Newspapers during an Election in Mozambique*

African elections often reveal low levels of political accountability. We assess different forms of voter education during an election in Mozambique. Three interventions providing information to voters and calling for their electoral participation were randomized; an SMS-based information campaign, an SMS hotline for electoral misconduct, and the distribution of a free newspaper. To measure impact, we look at official electoral results, reports by electoral observers, behavioral and survey data. We find positive effects of all treatments on voter turnout. We observe that the distribution of the newspaper led to more accountability-based participation and to a decrease in electoral problems.

Design of future distribution grids

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Tegumentary leishmaniasis in Northern Argentina: distribution of infection and disease, in three municipalities of Salta, 1990-1992

This work describes the epidemiological pattern of tegumentary leishmaniasis in an area north of Salta, Argentina. The prevalence and incidence were estimated by means of a cross-sectional study and two follow-up studies during two consecutive years. The Montenegro Skin Test (MST) was administered to 7336 subjects at baseline. The prevalence and incidence between 1990 and 1992 of infection (MST reactive) was 38‰ persons and 4.5‰ persons/year respectively. The prevalence and incidence of tegumentary leishmaniasis (presence of clinical signs) was 1.8‰ and 0.8‰ persons/year, respectively. A physical examination performed on 264 patients with MST reactive during three years revealed that 130 cases (49.2%) had some evident sign of infection (scar and/or lesion), with a clinical presentation compatible with leishmaniasis. Our study demonstrated that after the epidemic outbreak of 1985 the transmission in the study area returned to endemic levels in 1992, and also demonstrated the presence of the asymptomatic infection in the area.

Using GIS to map the spatial and temporal occurrence of cholera epidemic in Camaroon

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

Hedging in a discontinuous market: the barrier option

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Positive self-image over time

This paper incorporates egocentric comparisons into a human capital accumulation model and studies the evolution of positive self image over time. The paper shows that the process of human capital accumulation together with egocentric comparisons imply that positive self image of a cohort is first increasing and then decreasing over time. Additionally, the paper finds that positive self image: (1) peaks earlier in activities where skill depreciation is higher, (2) is smaller in activities where the distribution of income is more dispersed, (3) is not a stable characteristic of an individual, and (4) is higher for more patient individuals.

First record on Loxosceles laeta (Nicolet, 1849) (Araneae, Sicariidae) in the West Zone of São Paulo City, São Paulo, Brazil, and considerations regarding its geographic distribution

Loxosceles laeta spiders were captured in the West zone of São Paulo City, this being the first record of the specie in this area. Since loxoscelism is an important public health problem in the South region of Brazil, it is necessary to investigate the presence of this spider in São Paulo City.

Prevalence and monthly distribution of head lice using two diagnostic procedures in several age groups in Uberlândia, State of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil

Some epidemiological characteristics of head lice, Pediculus capitis, were studied using two procedures: cut hair analysis and head inspection. Higher prevalence rates were observed in the middle and at the end of the school terms. Both procedures indicated that children were the main reservoir for this type of pediculosis in Uberlândia.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation of endemic forest land snails of Madeira Island

Climate change is emerging as one of the major threats to natural communities of the world’s ecosystems; and biodiversity hotspots, such as Madeira Island, might face a challenging future in the conservation of endangered land snails’ species. With this thesis, progresses have been made in order to properly understand the impact of climate on these vulnerable taxa; and species distribution models coupled with GIS and climate change scenarios have become crucial to understand the relations between species distribution and environmental conditions, identifying threats and determining biodiversity vulnerability. With the use of MaxEnt, important changes in the species suitable areas were obtained. Laurel forest species, highly dependent on precipitation and relative humidity, may face major losses on their future suitable areas, leading to the possible extinction of several endangered species, such as Leiostyla heterodon. Despite the complexity of the biological systems, the intrinsic uncertainty of species distribution models and the lack of information about land snails’ functional traits, this analysis contributed to a pioneer study on the impacts of climate change on endemic species of Madeira Island. The future inclusion of predictions of the effect of climate change on species distribution as part of IUCN assessments could contribute to species prioritizing, promoting specific management actions and maximizing conservation investment.

State detection in a financial portfolio: a self-organizing maps approach for financial time series

This study analyses financial data using the result characterization of a self-organized neural network model. The goal was prototyping a tool that may help an economist or a market analyst to analyse stock market series. To reach this goal, the tool shows economic dependencies and statistics measures over stock market series. The neural network SOM (self-organizing maps) model was used to ex-tract behavioural patterns of the data analysed. Based on this model, it was de-veloped an application to analyse financial data. This application uses a portfo-lio of correlated markets or inverse-correlated markets as input. After the anal-ysis with SOM, the result is represented by micro clusters that are organized by its behaviour tendency. During the study appeared the need of a better analysis for SOM algo-rithm results. This problem was solved with a cluster solution technique, which groups the micro clusters from SOM U-Matrix analyses. The study showed that the correlation and inverse-correlation markets projects multiple clusters of data. These clusters represent multiple trend states that may be useful for technical professionals.

Decline in prevalence and asymmetric distribution of human T cell lymphotropic virus 1 and 2 in blood donors, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, 1993 to 2007

INTRODUCTION: Human T cell lymphotropic virus types 1 and 2 (HTLV-1/2) are endemic in Brazil and are screened for in transfusion services since 1993. This study evaluated the evolution of the prevalence of HTLV-1 and 2 in blood donors of the Hemominas Foundation from 1993 to 2007, and its geographical distribution in State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. METHODS: The Hemominas Foundation is a centralized blood center in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The sources of data were the Hemominas Foundation Technical Bulletin and files from the centralized serological laboratory. Donors were tested in the period using enzyme linked immuno sorbent assays (ELISA), followed by Western blot, when repeatedly reactive. The data were analyzed by EPIINFO 6.2 and TABWIN 3.5 softwares. RESULTS: The average seroprevalence in the period 1993-2007 was 0.1%. A steady decline occurred from 0.4% in 1993 to below 0.1% in 2002 and later, with a transient peak of 0.5% in 1994. HTLV reactivity distribution was asymmetrical in the state, with regions of higher prevalence, interspersed with low prevalence areas. Comparison of positive and negative donors verified that increasing age was proportional to virus positivity. Odds ratio for age ranged from 1.43 (30 to 39 years-old) to 3.09 (50 to 65 years-old). Women had a greater chance of being positive (OR-1.64), as previously described. CONCLUSIONS: Possible explanations for HTLV-1/2 prevalence decline are the exclusion of positive donors from the donor pool, an increase in repeat donors and ELISA test improvement, with reduction in the number of false positive results.

How to optimize Lipton’s business model in order to stimulate tea consumption in Portugal and increase Lipton Leaf tea market share?: The importance of distribution and sales channels management in a B2B2C market

Field Lab Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

Distribution of hepatitis C virus genotypes among different exposure categories in the State of Pará, Brazilian Amazon

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies concerning HCV genotypic distribution in the Brazilian Amazon are scarce. Thus, this study determined the patterns of distribution of HCV genotypes among different exposure categories in the State of Pará, Brazilian Amazon. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 312 HCV-infected individuals belonging to different categories of exposure, who were attended at the HEMOPA, CENPREN and a private hemodialysis clinic in Belém. They were tested for HCV antibodies using an immunoenzymatic test, RNA-HCV, using real-time PCR and HCV genotyping through phylogenetic analysis of the 5' UTR. The population groups were epidemiologically characterized according to data collected in a brief interview or medical consultation. RESULTS: Genotype 1 predominated in all the different categories of HCV exposure. HCV genotypic distribution among blood donors comprised genotypes 1 (94%) and 3 (6%). All patients with chronic hematologic diseases had HCV genotype 1. The genotypic distribution in illicit-drug users comprised genotypes 1 (59.6%) and 3 (40.4%). In patients under hemodialysis, genotypes 1 (90.1%), 2 (3.3%), and 3 (6.6%) were detected. Finally, the frequency of genotypes 1 and 3 was significantly different between the groups: BD and DU, PUH and DU, PUH and PCHD and PCHD and DU. CONCLUSIONS: The genotypic frequency and distribution of HCV in different categories of exposure in the State of Pará showed a predominance of genotype 1, regardless of the possible risk of infection.