Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities worked together on ‘end-to-end’ uncertainty assessments of climate change and its impacts. Here, we use an experiment in peer review amongst project members to assess variation in the assessment of uncertainties between EQUIP researchers. We find overall agreement on key sources of uncertainty but a large variation in the assessment of the methods used for uncertainty assessment. Results show that communication aimed at specialists makes the methods used harder to assess. There is also evidence of individual bias, which is partially attributable to disciplinary backgrounds. However, varying views on the methods used to quantify uncertainty did not preclude consensus on the consequential results produced using those methods. Based on our analysis, we make recommendations for developing and presenting statements on climate and its impacts. These include the use of a common uncertainty reporting format in order to make assumptions clear; presentation of results in terms of processes and trade-offs rather than only numerical ranges; and reporting multiple assessments of uncertainty in order to elucidate a more complete picture of impacts and their uncertainties. This in turn implies research should be done by teams of people with a range of backgrounds and time for interaction and discussion, with fewer but more comprehensive outputs in which the range of opinions is recorded.

On the validity of single-parcel energetics to assess the importance of internal energy and compressibility effects in stratified fluids

It is often assumed on the basis of single-parcel energetics that compressible effects and conversions with internal energy are negligible whenever typical displacements of fluid parcels are small relative to the scale height of the fluid (defined as the ratio of the squared speed of sound over gravitational acceleration). This paper shows that the above approach is flawed, however, and that a correct assessment of compressible effects and internal energy conversions requires considering the energetics of at least two parcels, or more generally, of mass conserving parcel re-arrangements. As a consequence, it is shown that it is the adiabatic lapse rate and its derivative with respect to pressure, rather than the scale height, which controls the relative importance of compressible effects and internal energy conversions when considering the global energy budget of a stratied fluid. Only when mass conservation is properly accounted for is it possible to explain why available internal energy can account for up to 40 percent of the total available potential energy in the oceans. This is considerably larger than the prediction of single-parcel energetics, according to which this number should be no more than about 2 percent.

A mechanism of internal decadal atlantic ocean variability in a high-resolution coupled climate model

The North Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre (NA SPG) is an important region for initialising decadal climate forecasts. Climate model simulations and palaeo climate reconstructions have indicated that this region could also exhibit large, internally generated variability on decadal timescales. Understanding these modes of variability, their consistency across models, and the conditions in which they exist, is clearly important for improving the skill of decadal predictions — particularly when these predictions are made with the same underlying climate models. Here we describe and analyse a mode of internal variability in the NA SPG in a state-of-the-art, high resolution, coupled climate model. This mode has a period of 17 years and explains 15–30% of the annual variance in related ocean indices. It arises due to the advection of heat content anomalies around the NA SPG. Anomalous circulation drives the variability in the southern half of the NA SPG, whilst mean circulation and anomalous temperatures are important in the northern half. A negative feedback between Labrador Sea temperatures/densities and those in the North Atlantic Current is identified, which allows for the phase reversal. The atmosphere is found to act as a positive feedback on to this mode via the North Atlantic Oscillation which itself exhibits a spectral peak at 17 years. Decadal ocean density changes associated with this mode are driven by variations in temperature, rather than salinity — a point which models often disagree on and which we suggest may affect the veracity of the underlying assumptions of anomaly-assimilating decadal prediction methodologies.

Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land

A theoretically expected consequence of the intensification of the hydrological cycle under global warming is that on average, wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier (WWDD). Recent studies, however, have found significant discrepancies between the expected pattern of change and observed changes over land. We assess the WWDD theory in four climate models. We find that the reported discrepancy can be traced to two main issues: (1) unforced internal climate variability strongly affects local wetness and dryness trends and can obscure underlying agreement with WWDD, and (2) dry land regions are not constrained to become drier by enhanced moisture divergence since evaporation cannot exceed precipitation over multiannual time scales. Over land, where the available water does not limit evaporation, a “wet gets wetter” signal predominates. On seasonal time scales, where evaporation can exceed precipitation, trends in wet season becoming wetter and dry season becoming drier are also found.

Capillary assay device with internal hydrophilic coating

The present invention provides assay devices having a unitary body with an exterior surface, the unitary body being substantially transparent to visible light and formed from a material having a refractive index in the range 1.26 to 1.40, the refractive index being measured at 20 °C with light of wavelength 589 nm, and wherein the unitary body is formed from a hydrophobic material, and at least two capillary bores extending internally along the unitary body, wherein at least a portion of the surface of each capillary bore includes a hydrophilic layer for retaining an assay reagent, and wherein the hydrophilic layer is also substantially transparent to visible light to allow optical interrogation of the capillary bores through the capillary wall. The present invention also provides assay systems including such assay devices, methods of performing an assay using such assay devices and method of method for manufacturing such assay devices.

Novel European free-living, non-diazotrophic Bradyrhizobium isolates from contrasting soils that lack nodulation and nitrogen fixation genes - a genome comparison

The slow-growing genus Bradyrhizobium is biologically important in soils, with different representatives found to perform a range of biochemical functions including photosynthesis, induction of root nodules and symbiotic nitrogen fixation and denitrification. Consequently, the role of the genus in soil ecology and biogeochemical transformations is of agricultural and environmental significance. Some isolates of Bradyrhizobium have been shown to be non-symbiotic and do not possess the ability to form nodules. Here we present the genome and gene annotations of two such free-living Bradyrhizobium isolates, named G22 and BF49, from soils with differing long-term management regimes (grassland and bare fallow respectively) in addition to carbon metabolism analysis. These Bradyrhizobium isolates are the first to be isolated and sequenced from European soil and are the first free-living Bradyrhizobium isolates, lacking both nodulation and nitrogen fixation genes, to have their genomes sequenced and assembled from cultured samples. The G22 and BF49 genomes are distinctly different with respect to size and number of genes; the grassland isolate also contains a plasmid. There are also a number of functional differences between these isolates and other published genomes, suggesting that this ubiquitous genus is extremely heterogeneous and has roles within the community not including symbiotic nitrogen fixation.

Internal nanoparticle structure of temperature-responsive self-assembled PNIPAM-b-PEG-b-PNIPAM triblock copolymers in aqueous solutions: NMR, SANS and light scattering studies

In this study we report detailed information on the internal structure of PNIPAM-b-PEG-b-PNIPAM nanoparticles formed from self-assembly in aqueous solutions upon increase in temperature. NMR spectroscopy, light scattering and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) were used to monitor different stages of nanoparticle formation as a function of temperature, providing insight into the fundamental processes involved. The presence of PEG in a copolymer structure significantly affects the formation of nanoparticles, making their transition to occur over a broader temperature range. The crucial parameter that controls the transition is the ratio of PEG/PNIPAM. For pure PNIPAM, the transition is sharp; the higher the PEG/PNIPAM ratio results in a broader transition. This behavior is explained by different mechanisms of PNIPAM block incorporation during nanoparticle formation at different PEG/PNIPAM ratios. Contrast variation experiments using SANS show that the structure of nanoparticles above cloud point temperatures for PNIPAM-b-PEG-b-PNIPAM copolymers is drastically different from the structure of PNIPAM mesoglobules. In contrast with pure PNIPAM mesoglobules, where solid-like particles and chain network with a mesh size of 1-3 nm are present; nanoparticles formed from PNIPAM-b-PEG-b-PNIPAM copolymers have non-uniform structure with “frozen” areas interconnected by single chains in Gaussian conformation. SANS data with deuterated “invisible” PEG blocks imply that PEG is uniformly distributed inside of a nanoparticle. It is kinetically flexible PEG blocks which affect the nanoparticle formation by prevention of PNIPAM microphase separation.

Use of checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization to evaluate the internal contamination of dental implants and comparison of bacterial leakage with cast or pre-machined abutments

To evaluate the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method for detection and quantitation of bacteria from the internal parts of dental implants and to compare bacterial leakage from implants connected either to cast or to pre-machined abutments. Nine plastic abutments cast in a Ni-Cr alloy and nine pre-machined Co-Cr alloy abutments with plastic sleeves cast in Ni-Cr were connected to Branemark-compatible implants. A group of nine implants was used as control. The implants were inoculated with 3 mu l of a solution containing 10(8) cells/ml of Streptococcus sobrinus. Bacterial samples were immediately collected from the control implants while assemblies were completely immersed in 5 ml of sterile Tripty Soy Broth (TSB) medium. After 14 days of anaerobic incubation, occurrence of leakage at the implant-abutment interface was evaluated by assessing contamination of the TSB medium. Internal contamination of the implants was evaluated with the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method. DNA-DNA hybridization was sensitive enough to detect and quantify the microorganism from the internal parts of the implants. No differences in leakage and in internal contamination were found between cast and pre-machined abutments. Bacterial scores in the control group were significantly higher than in the other groups (P < 0.05). Bacterial leakage through the implant-abutment interface does not significantly differ when cast or pre-machined abutments are used. The checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization technique is suitable for the evaluation of the internal contamination of dental implants although further studies are necessary to validate the use of computational methods for the improvement of the test accuracy. To cite this article:do Nascimento C, Barbosa RES, Issa JPM, Watanabe E, Ito IY, Albuquerque Junior RF. Use of checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization to evaluate the internal contamination of dental implants and comparison of bacterial leakage with cast or pre-machined abutments.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 20, 2009; 571-577.doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0501.2008.01663.x.

Fracture Resistance of the Implant-Abutment Connection in Implants with Internal Hex and Internal Conical Connections Under Oblique Compressive Loading: An In Vitro Study

The objective of this study was to verify if differences in the design of internal hex (IH) and internal conical (IC) connection implant systems influence fracture resistance under oblique compressive forces. Twenty implant-abutment assemblies were utilized: 10 with IH connections and 10 with IC connections. Maximum deformation force for IC implants (90.58 +/- 6.72 kgf) was statistically higher than that for IH implants (83.73 +/- 4.94 kgf) (P = .0182). Fracture force for the IH implants was 79.86 +/- 4.77 kgf. None of the IC implants fractured. The friction-locking mechanics and the solid design of the IC abutments provided greater resistance to deformation and fracture under oblique compressive loading when compared to the IH abutments. Int J Prosthodont 2009;22:283-286.

Treatment of Zygomatic Arch Fracture With Lag Screws

Zygomatic arch fractures often occur as part of a zygoma fracture or Le Fort type III fractures of the maxillary. Isolated fractures of the zygomatic arch comprise around 10% of all zygoma fractures. The main etiologic factors are traffic accidents, falls, assaults, and sport accidents. Treatment may involve minimally invasive surgical procedures for slightly dislocated fractures or surgery with more extensive access for large dislocations of bone segments. This article reports the case of a 41-year-old male victim of physical aggression to the face with a steel sickle with an exposed, unstable fracture of the zygomatic arch. The patient underwent general anesthesia, and after the reduction of the fractures, the bone segments were fixed with 2.0-mm screws.

Internal and External Time Conflicts in Adolescents: Sleep Characteristics and Interventions

Daytime fatigue and lack of sleep seem to increase throughout adolescent years. Several environmental, psychological, and biological factors have been associated with the development of sleep across adolescence. The aim of the present article is to summarize these factors and to give examples of various outcomes in sleep patterns among adolescents studied in different cultural settings. It is obvious from earlier work that many adolescents have displaced circadian rhythms and lack of adaptation to school hours due to an early school start or additional burdens for work. Several interventions have aimed to help the adaptation process by supporting sleep processes and changing scheduling, in this way promoting classroom alertness. In summary, adolescents worldwide shorten their sleep due to schoolwork hours and additional work, especially by disturbing their sleep due to circadian misalignment.

Objective Assessment of Internal Nasal Dimensions and Speech Resonance in Individuals With Repaired Unilateral Cleft Lip and Palate After Rhinoseptoplasty

The objective of the current study was to analyze the effects of rhinoseptoplasty on internal nasal dimensions and speech resonance of individuals with unilateral cleft lip and palate, estimated by acoustic rhinometry and nasometry, respectively. Twenty-one individuals (aged 15-46 years) with previously repaired unilateral cleft lip and palate were analyzed before (PRE), and 6 to 9 (POST1) and 12 to 18 months (POST2) after surgery. Acoustic rhinometry was used to measure the cross-sectional areas (CSAs) of segments corresponding to the nasal valve (CSA1), anterior portion (CSA2), and posterior portion (CSA3) of the lower turbinate, and the volumes at the nasal valve (V1) and turbinate (V2) regions at cleft and noncleft sides, before and after nasal decongestion with a topical vasoconstrictor. Nasometry was used to evaluate speech nasalance during the reading of a set of sentences containing nasal sounds and other devoid of nasal sounds. At the cleft side, before nasal decongestion, there was a significant increase (P < 0.05) in mean CSA1 and V1 values at POST1 and POST2 compared with PRE. After decongestion, increased values were also observed for CSA2 and V2 at POST2. No significant changes were observed at the noncleft side. Mean nasalance values at PRE, POST1, an POST2 were not different from each other in both oral and nasal sentences. The measurement of CSAs and volumes by acoustic rhinometry revealed that rhinoseptoplasty provided, in most cases analyzed, a significant increase in nasal patency, without concomitant changes in speech resonance, as estimated by nasalance assessment.

On the use of rotational splitting asymmetries to probe the internal rotation profile of stars: Application to beta Cephei stars

Rotationally-split modes can provide valuable information about the internal rotation profile of stars. This has been used for years to infer the internal rotation behavior of the Sun. The present work discusses the potential additional information that rotationally splitting asymmetries may provide when studying the internal rotation profile of stars. We present here some preliminary results of a method, currently under development, which intends: 1) to understand the variation of the rotational splitting asymmetries in terms of physical processes acting on the angular momentum distribution in the stellar interior, and 2) how this information can be used to better constrain the internal rotation profile of the stars. The accomplishment of these two objectives should allow us to better use asteroseismology as a test-bench of the different theories describing the angular momentum distribution and evolution in the stellar interiors. (C) 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH&Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Comparative Internal Structure of Dorsal Lips and Radiolar Appendages in Sabellidae (Polychaeta) and Phylogenetic Implications

Fan worms (Sabellidae) possess paired modified prostomial structures at the base of the radiolar crown, dorso-lateral to the mouth, called dorsal lips. The dorsal lips are involved in the sorting of particles collected by the radiolar crown. The range of variation in the morphology of dorsal lips is extensive, and probably this is not only due to adaptations to different environments and feeding preferences but also due to phylogenetic constraints. In this study, we describe and compare the morphology of dorsal lips in a range of sabellid taxa based on histological cross-sections of these structures, and compare our data and terminology with those of previous studies. Dorsal lips are maintained erect in most taxa by a modified radiole fused to them known as dorsal radiolar appendage. We suggest that dorsal radiolar appendages with an internal supporting axis (cellular or acellular) and probably also the ventral lips are synapomorphies of the family. J. Morphol. 272: 302-319, 2011. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.