Log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data: Sensitivity and residual analysis

This paper proposes a regression model considering the modified Weibull distribution. This distribution can be used to model bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. Assuming censored data, we consider maximum likelihood and Jackknife estimators for the parameters of the model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and we also present some ways to perform global influence. Besides, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed and the empirical distribution of the modified deviance residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for a martingale-type residual in log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-modified Weibull regression models. A diagnostic analysis and a model checking based on the modified deviance residual are performed to select appropriate models. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for zero-inflated negative binomial regression models

The zero-inflated negative binomial model is used to account for overdispersion detected in data that are initially analyzed under the zero-Inflated Poisson model A frequentist analysis a jackknife estimator and a non-parametric bootstrap for parameter estimation of zero-inflated negative binomial regression models are considered In addition an EM-type algorithm is developed for performing maximum likelihood estimation Then the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and some ways to perform global influence analysis are derived In order to study departures from the error assumption as well as the presence of outliers residual analysis based on the standardized Pearson residuals is discussed The relevance of the approach is illustrated with a real data set where It is shown that zero-inflated negative binomial regression models seems to fit the data better than the Poisson counterpart (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

General results for the beta-modified Weibull distribution

We study in detail the so-called beta-modified Weibull distribution, motivated by the wide use of the Weibull distribution in practice, and also for the fact that the generalization provides a continuous crossover towards cases with different shapes. The new distribution is important since it contains as special sub-models some widely-known distributions, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among several others. It also provides more flexibility to analyse complex real data. Various mathematical properties of this distribution are derived, including its moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are also derived for the chf, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and entropies. The estimation of parameters is approached by two methods: moments and maximum likelihood. We compare by simulation the performances of the estimates from these methods. We obtain the expected information matrix. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution.

The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data

A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.

Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

Spatial portability of numerical models of leaf wetness duration based on empirical approaches

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models based on empirical approaches offer practical advantages over physically based models in agricultural applications, but their spatial portability is questionable because they may be biased to the climatic conditions under which they were developed. In our study, spatial portability of three LWD models with empirical characteristics - a RH threshold model, a decision tree model with wind speed correction, and a fuzzy logic model - was evaluated using weather data collected in Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Italy and the USA. The fuzzy logic model was more accurate than the other models in estimating LWD measured by painted leaf wetness sensors. The fraction of correct estimates for the fuzzy logic model was greater (0.87) than for the other models (0.85-0.86) across 28 sites where painted sensors were installed, and the degree of agreement k statistic between the model and painted sensors was greater for the fuzzy logic model (0.71) than that for the other models (0.64-0.66). Values of the k statistic for the fuzzy logic model were also less variable across sites than those of the other models. When model estimates were compared with measurements from unpainted leaf wetness sensors, the fuzzy logic model had less mean absolute error (2.5 h day(-1)) than other models (2.6-2.7 h day(-1)) after the model was calibrated for the unpainted sensors. The results suggest that the fuzzy logic model has greater spatial portability than the other models evaluated and merits further validation in comparison with physical models under a wider range of climate conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Root Water Extraction under Combined Water and Osmotic Stress

Using a numerical implicit model for root water extraction by a single root in a symmetric radial flow problem, based on the Richards equation and the combined convection-dispersion equation, we investigated some aspects of the response of root water uptake to combined water and osmotic stress. The model implicitly incorporates the effect of simultaneous pressure head and osmotic head on root water uptake, and does not require additional assumptions (additive or multiplicative) to derive the combined effect of water and salt stress. Simulation results showed that relative transpiration equals relative matric flux potential, which is defined as the matric flux potential calculated with an osmotic pressure head-dependent lower bound of integration, divided by the matric flux potential at the onset of limiting hydraulic conditions. In the falling rate phase, the osmotic head near the root surface was shown to increase in time due to decreasing root water extraction rates, causing a more gradual decline of relative transpiration than with water stress alone. Results furthermore show that osmotic stress effects on uptake depend on pressure head or water content, allowing a refinement of the approach in which fixed reduction factors based on the electrical conductivity of the saturated soil solution extract are used. One of the consequences is that osmotic stress is predicted to occur in situations not predicted by the saturation extract analysis approach. It is also shown that this way of combining salinity and water as stressors yields results that are different from a purely multiplicative approach. An analytical steady state solution is presented to calculate the solute content at the root surface, and compared with the outputs of the numerical model. Using the analytical solution, a method has been developed to estimate relative transpiration as a function of system parameters, which are often already used in vadose zone models: potential transpiration rate, root length density, minimum root surface pressure head, and soil theta-h and K-h functions.

Macroscopic root water uptake distribution using a matric flux potential approach

Hydrological models featuring root water uptake usually do not include compensation mechanisms such that reductions in uptake from dry layers are compensated by an increase in uptake from wetter layers. We developed a physically based root water uptake model with an implicit compensation mechanism. Based on an expression for the matric flux potential (M) as a function of the distance to the root, and assuming a depth-independent value of M at the root surface, uptake per layer is shown to be a function of layer bulk M, root surface M, and a weighting factor that depends on root length density and root radius. Actual transpiration can be calculated from the sum of layer uptake rates. The proposed reduction function (PRF) was built into the SWAP model, and predictions were compared to those made with the Feddes reduction function (FRF). Simulation results were tested against data from Canada (continuous spring wheat [(Triticum aestivum L.]) and Germany (spring wheat, winter barley [Hordeum vulgare L.], sugarbeet [Beta vulgaris L.], winter wheat rotation). For the Canadian data, the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for water content in the upper soil layers was very similar for FRF and PRF; for the deeper layers, RMSEP was smaller for PRF. For the German data, RMSEP was lower for PRF in the upper layers and was similar for both models in the deeper layers. In conclusion, but dependent on the properties of the data sets available for testing,the incorporation of the new reduction function into SWAP was successful, providing new capabilities for simulating compensated root water uptake without increasing the number of input parameters or degrading model performance.

Alternative Analytical Expressions for the General van Genuchten-Mualem and van Genuchten-Burdine Hydraulic Conductivity Models

The van Genuchten expressions for the unsaturated soil hydraulic properties, first published in 1980, are used frequently in various vadose zone flow and transport applications assuming a specific relationship between the m and n soil hydraulic parameters. By comparison, probably because of the complexity of the hydraulic conductivity equations, the more general solutions with independent m and n values are rarely used. We expressed the general van Genuchten-Mualem and van Genuchten-Burdine hydraulic conductivity equations in terms of hypergeometric functions, which can be approximated by infinite series that converge rapidly for relatively large values of the van Genuchten-Mualem parameter n but only very slowly when n is close to one. Alternative equations were derived that provide very close approximations of the analytical results. The newly proposed equations allow the use of independent values of the parameters m and n in the soil water retention model of van Genuchten for subsequent prediction of the van Genuchten-Mualem and van Genuchten-Burdine hydraulic conductivity models, thus providing more flexibility in fitting experimental pressure-head-dependent water content, theta(h), and hydraulic conductivity, K(h), or K(theta) data.

Simulation of irrigated Thanzania grass growth based on photothermal units, nitrogen fertilization and water availability

Simulation of irrigated Thanzania grass growth based on photothermal units, nitrogen fertilization and water availability. The mathematical model to predict the forage yield using photothennal units was utilized with success in Elephant grass, Thanzania and Brachiaria niziziensis in the absence of water stress and nitrogen stress. The aim of this study was to propose models to estimate the forage yield of Thanzania grass under different irrigation (25, 50,75, 100 e 125% of ETc) and nitrogen level in various regions of Brazil. As such, models were developed to estimate the dry matter production of Panicum maximum Jacq. frass cv Thanzania in different irrigation and nitrogen levels, using photothermal units. The models were adjusted to doses of 0, 30, 60, 110 and 270 kg of N ha(-1), doses were divided in applications after each evaluation, with a rest cycle of 35 days. The adjusted model presented good performance in predicting dry matter production of Thanzania grass, with r(2) = 0.9999. The results made it possible to verify that the proposed model can be used to predict forage production in different regions of Brazil. It can be estimated, with good precision. The production of Thanzania grass dry matter can be accurately estimated in specific places (in function of latitude and time of year), with the maximum and minimum temperature values.

Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

Does using stepwise variable selection to build sequential path analysis models make sense?

Causal inference methods - mainly path analysis and structural equation modeling - offer plant physiologists information about cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits. Recently, an unusual approach to causal inference through stepwise variable selection has been proposed and used in various works on plant physiology. The approach should not be considered correct from a biological point of view. Here, it is explained why stepwise variable selection should not be used for causal inference, and shown what strange conclusions can be drawn based upon the former analysis when one aims to interpret cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits.

Development of Ramulosis Disease of Cotton Under Controlled Environment and Field Conditions

Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis disease of cotton, is widespread in Brazil and can cause severe yield loss. Because weather conditions greatly affect disease development, the objective of this work was to develop weather-based models to assess disease favorability. Latent period, incidence, and severity of ramulosis symptoms were evaluated in controlled environment experiments using factorial combinations of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 h after inoculation). Severity was modeled as an exponential function of leaf wetness duration and temperature. At the optimum temperature of disease development, 27 degrees C, average latent period was 10 days. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30 degrees C, with sharp decreases at lower and higher temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. In field experiments at Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, cotton plots were inoculated (10(5) conidia ml(-1)) and ramulosis severity was evaluated weekly. The model obtained from the controlled environment study was used to generate a disease favorability index for comparison with disease progress rate in the field. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables. Both the disease favorability model and a model based on rainfall explained ramulosis growth rate well, with R(2) of 0.89 and 0.91, respectively. They are proposed as models of ramulosis development rate on cotton in Brazil, and weather-disease relationships revealed by this work can form the basis of a warning system for ramulosis development.

Ovarian function in cows submitted to acute stress during proestrus

Studies in which ACTH was administrated in heifers after the occurrence of luteolysis showed a delay in the onset of estrus and the estrus duration was shortened. This study evaluated the effect of acute stress by road transportation on estrous behavior and ovulation, monitored by serum progesterone and cortisol concentrations in cows at the periovulatory period, using a crossover design. Eleven crossbred cows, divided into Control and Transport groups had their estrus cycle synchronized with GnRH, an intravaginal progesterone device, and cloprostenol. Thirty hours after withdrawal of the device, the animals of the Transport group were transported for 60 min by truck and those from the Control group remained at pasture. Ovarian ultrasound examination was performed every 12 h from device withdrawal until ovulation in every cow. From the day after removal of the device until ovulation estrous behavior was monitored 24 h a day. Blood samples for serum cortisol and progesterone concentrations were taken at -90, -60, 0, 30, 60 and 180 min in relation to the end of transportation. Transportation during the estrous period induced stress in cows as reflected by changes in serum concentrations of progesterone and cortisol. However, we did not detect impairment in estrus expression, estrus duration or ovulation (P>0.05). (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Log-Linear Regression Model for the Beta-Weibull Distribution

We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.