Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

The Secret Siphon

Although the siphon has been in use since ancient times, the exact mechanism of operation is still under discussion. For example, most dictionaries assert that atmospheric pressure is essential to the operation of a siphon rather than gravity. Although there is general agreement that gravity is the motivating force in a siphon, there is disagreement on how liquid enters a siphon – is it atmospheric push or tensile pull? This paper describes a classroom experiment that can serve as the basis for discussing how a siphon works. The experiment involves the construction of a siphon in which the water level in the upper reservoir is held constant during the operation of the siphon. Since the atmosphere is not doing any work on the water in the upper reservoir only gravity is at work. The special situation of a bubble-in-a-siphon is also discussed in which both atmospheric pressure and gravity are at work.

Vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete columns subjected to vehicular impacts

Columns are one of the key load bearing elements that are highly susceptible to vehicle impacts. The resulting severe damages to columns may leads to failures of the supporting structure that are catastrophic in nature. However, the columns in existing structures are seldom designed for impact due to inadequacies of design guidelines. The impact behaviour of columns designed for gravity loads and actions other than impact is, therefore, of an interest. A comprehensive investigation is conducted on reinforced concrete column with a particular focus on investigating the vulnerability of the exposed columns and to implement mitigation techniques under low to medium velocity car and truck impacts. The investigation is based on non-linear explicit computer simulations of impacted columns followed by a comprehensive validation process. The impact is simulated using force pulses generated from full scale vehicle impact tests. A material model capable of simulating triaxial loading conditions is used in the analyses. Circular columns adequate in capacity for five to twenty story buildings, designed according to Australian standards are considered in the investigation. The crucial parameters associated with the routine column designs and the different load combinations applied at the serviceability stage on the typical columns are considered in detail. Axially loaded columns are examined at the initial stage and the investigation is extended to analyse the impact behaviour under single axis bending and biaxial bending. The impact capacity reduction under varying axial loads is also investigated. Effects of the various load combinations are quantified and residual capacity of the impacted columns based on the status of the damage and mitigation techniques are also presented. In addition, the contribution of the individual parameter to the failure load is scrutinized and analytical equations are developed to identify the critical impulses in terms of the geometrical and material properties of the impacted column. In particular, an innovative technique was developed and introduced to improve the accuracy of the equations where the other techniques are failed due to the shape of the error distribution. Above all, the equations can be used to quantify the critical impulse for three consecutive points (load combinations) located on the interaction diagram for one particular column. Consequently, linear interpolation can be used to quantify the critical impulse for the loading points that are located in-between on the interaction diagram. Having provided a known force and impulse pair for an average impact duration, this method can be extended to assess the vulnerability of columns for a general vehicle population based on an analytical method that can be used to quantify the critical peak forces under different impact durations. Therefore the contribution of this research is not only limited to produce simplified yet rational design guidelines and equations, but also provides a comprehensive solution to quantify the impact capacity while delivering new insight to the scientific community for dealing with impacts.

Heat strain, hydration status, and symptoms of heat illness in surface mine workers

The aim of the research program was to evaluate the heat strain, hydration status, and heat illness symptoms experienced by surface mine workers. An initial investigation involved 91 surface miners completing a heat stress questionnaire; assessing the work environment, hydration practices, and heat illness symptom experience. The key findings included 1) more than 80 % of workers experienced at least one symptom of heat illness over a 12 month period; and 2) the risk of moderate symptoms of heat illness increased with the severity of dehydration. These findings highlight a health and safety concern for surface miners, as experiencing symptoms of heat illness is an indication that the physiological systems of the body may be struggling to meet the demands of thermoregulation. To illuminate these findings a field investigation to monitor the heat strain and hydration status of surface miners was proposed. Two preliminary studies were conducted to ensure accurate and reliable data collection techniques. Firstly, a study was undertaken to determine a calibration procedure to ensure the accuracy of core body temperature measurement via an ingestible sensor. A water bath was heated to several temperatures between 23 . 51 ¢ªC, allowing for comparison of the temperature recorded by the sensors and a traceable thermometer. A positive systematic bias was observed and indicated a need for calibration. It was concluded that a linear regression should be developed for each sensor prior to ingestion, allowing for a correction to be applied to the raw data. Secondly, hydration status was to be assessed through urine specific gravity measurement. It was foreseeable that practical limitations on mine sites would delay the time between urine collection and analysis. A study was undertaken to assess the reliability of urine analysis over time. Measurement of urine specific gravity was found to be reliable up to 24 hours post urine collection and was suitable to be used in the field study. Twenty-nine surface miners (14 drillers [winter] and 15 blast crew [summer]) were monitored during a normal work shift. Core body temperature was recorded continuously. Average mean core body temperature was 37.5 and 37.4 ¢ªC for blast crew and drillers, with average maximum body temperatures of 38.0 and 37.9 ¢ªC respectively. The highest body temperature recorded was 38.4 ¢ªC. Urine samples were collected at each void for specific gravity measurement. The average mean urine specific gravity was 1.024 and 1.021 for blast crew and drillers respectively. The Heat Illness Symptoms Index was used to evaluate the experience of heat illness symptoms on shift. Over 70 % of drillers and over 80 % of blast crew reported at least one symptom. It was concluded that 1) heat strain remained within the recommended limits for acclimatised workers; and 2) the majority of workers were dehydrated before commencing their shift, and tend to remain dehydrated for the duration. Dehydration was identified as the primary issue for surface miners working in the heat. Therefore continued study focused on investigating a novel approach to monitoring hydration status. The final aim of this research program was to investigate the influence dehydration has on intraocular pressure (IOP); and subsequently, whether IOP could provide a novel indicator of hydration status. Seven males completed 90 minutes of walking in both a cool and hot climate with fluid restriction. Hydration variables and intraocular pressure were measured at baseline and at 30 minute intervals. Participants became dehydrated during the trial in the heat but maintained hydration status in the cool. Intraocular pressure progressively declined in the trial in the heat but remained relatively stable when hydration was maintained. A significant relationship was observed between intraocular pressure and both body mass loss and plasma osmolality. This evidence suggests that intraocular pressure is influenced by changes in hydration status. Further research is required to determine if intraocular pressure could be utilised as an indirect indicator of hydration status.

A note on trader Sharpe Ratios

Traders in the financial world are assessed by the amount of money they make and, increasingly, by the amount of money they make per unit of risk taken, a measure known as the Sharpe Ratio. Little is known about the average Sharpe Ratio among traders, but the Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that traders, like asset managers, should not outperform the broad market. Here we report the findings of a study conducted in the City of London which shows that a population of experienced traders attain Sharpe Ratios significantly higher than the broad market. To explain this anomaly we examine a surrogate marker of prenatal androgen exposure, the second-to-fourth finger length ratio (2D:4D), which has previously been identified as predicting a trader's long term profitability. We find that it predicts the amount of risk taken by traders but not their Sharpe Ratios. We do, however, find that the traders' Sharpe Ratios increase markedly with the number of years they have traded, a result suggesting that learning plays a role in increasing the returns of traders. Our findings present anomalous data for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.

Dynamic texture reconstruction from sparse codes for unusual event detection in crowded scenes

Unusual event detection in crowded scenes remains challenging because of the diversity of events and noise. In this paper, we present a novel approach for unusual event detection via sparse reconstruction of dynamic textures over an overcomplete basis set, with the dynamic texture described by local binary patterns from three orthogonal planes (LBPTOP). The overcomplete basis set is learnt from the training data where only the normal items observed. In the detection process, given a new observation, we compute the sparse coefficients using the Dantzig Selector algorithm which was proposed in the literature of compressed sensing. Then the reconstruction errors are computed, based on which we detect the abnormal items. Our application can be used to detect both local and global abnormal events. We evaluate our algorithm on UCSD Abnormality Datasets for local anomaly detection, which is shown to outperform current state-of-the-art approaches, and we also get promising results for rapid escape detection using the PETS2009 dataset.

Under the carpet : the politics and trauma of patient harm

Few studies have investigated iatrogenic outcomes from the viewpoint of patient experience. To address this anomaly, the broad aim of this research is to explore the lived experience of patient harm. Patient harm is defined as major harm to the patient, either psychosocial or physical in nature, resulting from any aspect of health care. Utilising the method of Consensual Qualitative Research (CQR), in-depth interviews are conducted with twenty-four volunteer research participants who self-report having been severely harmed by an invasive medical procedure. A standardised measure of emotional distress, the Impact of Event Scale (IES), is additionally employed for purposes of triangulation. Thematic analysis of transcript data indicate numerous findings including: (i) difficulties regarding patients‘ prior understanding of risks involved with their medical procedure; (ii) the problematic response of the health system post-procedure; (iii) multiple adverse effects upon life functioning; (iv) limited recourse options for patients; and (v) the approach desired in terms of how patient harm should be systemically handled. In addition, IES results indicate a clinically significant level of distress in the sample as a whole. To discuss findings, a cross-disciplinary approach is adopted that draws upon sociology, medicine, medical anthropology, psychology, philosophy, history, ethics, law, and political theory. Furthermore, an overall explanatory framework is proposed in terms of the master themes of power and trauma. In terms of the theme of power, a postmodernist analysis explores the politics of patient harm, particularly the dynamics surrounding the politics of knowledge (e.g., notions of subjective versus objective knowledge, informed consent, and open disclosure). This analysis suggests that patient care is not the prime function of the health system, which appears more focussed upon serving the interests of those in the upper levels of its hierarchy. In terms of the master theme of trauma, current understandings of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are critiqued, and based on data from this research as well as the international literature, a new model of trauma is proposed. This model is based upon the principle of homeostasis observed in biology, whereby within every cell or organism a state of equilibrium is sought and maintained. The proposed model identifies several bio-psychosocial markers of trauma across its three main phases. These trauma markers include: (i) a profound sense of loss; (ii) a lack of perceived control; (iii) passive trauma processing responses; (iv) an identity crisis; (v) a quest to fully understand the trauma event; (vi) a need for social validation of the traumatic experience; and (vii) posttraumatic adaption with the possibility of positive change. To further explore the master themes of power and trauma, a natural group interview is carried out at a meeting of a patient support group for arachnoiditis. Observations at this meeting and members‘ stories in general support the homeostatic model of trauma, particularly the quest to find answers in the face of distressing experience, as well as the need for social recognition of that experience. In addition, the sociopolitical response to arachnoiditis highlights how public domains of knowledge are largely constructed and controlled by vested interests. Implications of the data overall are discussed in terms of a cultural revolution being needed in health care to position core values around a prime focus upon patients as human beings.

Error analysis and attitude observability of a monocular GPS/visual odometry integrated navigation filter

In this paper, we present a method for the recovery of position and absolute attitude (including pitch, roll and yaw) using a novel fusion of monocular Visual Odometry and GPS measurements in a similar manner to a classic loosely-coupled GPS/INS error state navigation filter. The proposed filter does not require additional restrictions or assumptions such as platform-specific dynamics, map-matching, feature-tracking, visual loop-closing, gravity vector or additional sensors such as an IMU or magnetic compass. An observability analysis of the proposed filter is performed, showing that the scale factor, position and attitude errors are fully observable under acceleration that is non-parallel to velocity vector in the navigation frame. The observability properties of the proposed filter are demonstrated using numerical simulations. We conclude the article with an implementation of the proposed filter using real flight data collected from a Cessna 172 equipped with a downwards-looking camera and GPS, showing the feasibility of the algorithm in real-world conditions.

The Biodex Isokinetic Dynamometer for knee strength assessment in children : advantages and limitations

Objective: To critically appraise the Biodex System 4 isokinetic dynamometer for strength assessment of children. Methods: Appraisal was based on experiences from two independent laboratories involving testing of 213 children. Issues were recorded and the manufacturer was consulted regarding appropriate solutions. Results: The dynamometer had insufficient height adjustment for alignment of the knee for some children, requiring the construction of padding to better fit the child within the dynamometer. Potential for entrapment of the non-testing leg was evident in the passive and eccentric modes and a leg bracket restraint was constructed. Automated gravity correction did not operate when protocols were linked or data was exported to an external device. Conclusions: Limitations were noted, some of which were applicable to knee strength testing in general and others which were specific to use with children. However, most of these obstacles could be overcome, making the Biodex System 4 suitable for assessment of knee strength in children.

Ocular characteristics of anisometropia

Animal models of refractive error development have demonstrated that visual experience influences ocular growth. In a variety of species, axial anisometropia (i.e. a difference in the length of the two eyes) can be induced through unilateral occlusion, image degradation or optical manipulation. In humans, anisometropia may occur in isolation or in association with amblyopia, strabismus or unilateral pathology. Non-amblyopic myopic anisometropia represents an interesting anomaly of ocular growth, since the two eyes within one visual system have grown to different endpoints. These experiments have investigated a range of biometric, optical and mechanical properties of anisometropic eyes (with and without amblyopia) with the aim of improving our current understanding of asymmetric refractive error development. In the first experiment, the interocular symmetry in 34 non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes (31 Asian, 3 Caucasian) was examined during relaxed accommodation. A high degree of symmetry was observed between the fellow eyes for a range of optical, biometric and biomechanical measurements. When the magnitude of anisometropia exceeded 1.75 D, the more myopic eye was almost always the sighting dominant eye. Further analysis of the optical and biometric properties of the dominant and non-dominant eyes was conducted to determine any related factors but no significant interocular differences were observed with respect to best-corrected visual acuity, corneal or total ocular aberrations during relaxed accommodation. Given the high degree of symmetry observed between the fellow eyes during distance viewing in the first experiment and the strong association previously reported between near work and myopia development, the aim of the second experiment was to investigate the symmetry between the fellow eyes of the same 34 myopic anisometropes following a period of near work. Symmetrical changes in corneal and total ocular aberrations were observed following a short reading task (10 minutes, 2.5 D accommodation demand) which was attributed to the high degree of interocular symmetry for measures of anterior eye morphology, and corneal biomechanics. These changes were related to eyelid shape and position during downward gaze, but gave no clear indication of factors associated with near work that might cause asymmetric eye growth within an individual. Since the influence of near work on eye growth is likely to be most obvious during, rather than following near tasks, in the third experiment the interocular symmetry of the optical and biometric changes was examined during accommodation for 11 myopic anisometropes. The changes in anterior eye biometrics associated with accommodation were again similar between the eyes, resulting in symmetrical changes in the optical characteristics. However, the more myopic eyes exhibited slightly greater amounts of axial elongation during accommodation which may be related to the force exerted by the ciliary muscle. This small asymmetry in axial elongation we observed between the eyes may be due to interocular differences in posterior eye structure, given that the accommodative response was equal between eyes. Using ocular coherence tomography a reduced average choroidal thickness was observed in the more myopic eyes compared to the less myopic eyes of these subjects. The interocular difference in choroidal thickness was correlated with the magnitude of spherical equivalent and axial anisometropia. The symmetry in optics and biometrics between fellow eyes which have undergone significantly different visual development (i.e. anisometropic subjects with amblyopia) is also of interest with respect to refractive error development. In the final experiment the influence of altered visual experience upon corneal and ocular higher-order aberrations was investigated in 21 amblyopic subjects (8 refractive, 11 strabismic and 2 form deprivation). Significant differences in aberrations were observed between the fellow eyes, which varied according to the type of amblyopia. Refractive amblyopes displayed significantly higher levels of 4th order corneal aberrations (spherical aberration and secondary astigmatism) in the amblyopic eye compared to the fellow non-amblyopic eye. Strabismic amblyopes exhibited significantly higher levels of trefoil, a third order aberration, in the amblyopic eye for both corneal and total ocular aberrations. The results of this experiment suggest that asymmetric visual experience during development is associated with asymmetries in higher-order aberrations, proportional to the magnitude of anisometropia and dependent upon the amblyogenic factor. This suggests a direct link between the development of higher-order optical characteristics of the human eye and visual feedback. The results from these experiments have shown that a high degree of symmetry exists between the fellow eyes of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes for a range of biomechanical, biometric and optical parameters for different levels of accommodation and following near work. While a single specific optical or biomechanical factor that is consistently associated with asymmetric refractive error development has not been identified, the findings from these studies suggest that further research into the association between ocular dominance, choroidal thickness and higher-order aberrations with anisometropia may improve our understanding of refractive error development.

Drawing the line : the legal status and treatment of the 17-year-old accused in Queensland

Seventeen year olds who come into contact with the police in Queensland are classified as adults and are not afforded the protections available under the Youth Justice Act 1992 (Qld) (YJA). As with any other adult, their offences are dealt with under a raft of legislative provisions including the Criminal Code 1889 (Qld) (the Code), the Police Powers and Responsibilities Act 2000 (Qld) (PPRA) and the Penalties and Sentences Act 1992 (Qld) (PSA). This article argues that this situation is unfair and contravenes international human rights agreements which Australia has ratified, in particular the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (CROC). Article 1 of that Convention defines a child as a person under the age of 18. The youth offences legislation in Queensland only applies to those who have not yet turned 17. This article examines the effects of this anomaly in Queensland, focusing in particular on the pre-adjudication treatment of ‘17 year old adults’.

Interactive axial shortening of columns and walls in high rise buildings

Concrete is commonly used as a primary construction material for tall building construction. Load bearing components such as columns and walls in concrete buildings are subjected to instantaneous and long term axial shortening caused by the time dependent effects of "shrinkage", "creep" and "elastic" deformations. Reinforcing steel content, variable concrete modulus, volume to surface area ratio of the elements and environmental conditions govern axial shortening. The impact of differential axial shortening among columns and core shear walls escalate with increasing building height. Differential axial shortening of gravity loaded elements in geometrically complex and irregular buildings result in permanent distortion and deflection of the structural frame which have a significant impact on building envelopes, building services, secondary systems and the life time serviceability and performance of a building. Existing numerical methods commonly used in design to quantify axial shortening are mainly based on elastic analytical techniques and therefore unable to capture the complexity of non-linear time dependent effect. Ambient measurements of axial shortening using vibrating wire, external mechanical strain, and electronic strain gauges are methods that are available to verify pre-estimated values from the design stage. Installing these gauges permanently embedded in or on the surface of concrete components for continuous measurements during and after construction with adequate protection is uneconomical, inconvenient and unreliable. Therefore such methods are rarely if ever used in actual practice of building construction. This research project has developed a rigorous numerical procedure that encompasses linear and non-linear time dependent phenomena for prediction of axial shortening of reinforced concrete structural components at design stage. This procedure takes into consideration (i) construction sequence, (ii) time varying values of Young's Modulus of reinforced concrete and (iii) creep and shrinkage models that account for variability resulting from environmental effects. The capabilities of the procedure are illustrated through examples. In order to update previous predictions of axial shortening during the construction and service stages of the building, this research has also developed a vibration based procedure using ambient measurements. This procedure takes into consideration the changes in vibration characteristic of structure during and after construction. The application of this procedure is illustrated through numerical examples which also highlight the features. The vibration based procedure can also be used as a tool to assess structural health/performance of key structural components in the building during construction and service life.

Effect of MHD and heat generation on natural convection flow in an open square cavity under microgravity condition

Purpose - Thermo-magnetic convection and heat transfer of paramagnetic fluid placed in a micro-gravity condition (g = 0) and under a uniform vertical gradient magnetic field in an open square cavity with three cold sidewalls have been studied numerically. Design/methodology/approach - This magnetic force is proportional to the magnetic susceptibility and the gradient of the square of the magnetic induction. The magnetic susceptibility is inversely proportional to the absolute temperature based on Curie’s law. Thermal convection of a paramagnetic fluid can therefore take place even in zero-gravity environment as a direct consequence of temperature differences occurring within the fluid due to a constant internal heat generation placed within a magnetic field gradient. Findings - Effects of magnetic Rayleigh number, Ra, Prandtl number, Pr, and paramagnetic fluid parameter, m, on the flow pattern and isotherms as well as on the heat absorption are presented graphically. It is found that the heat transfer rate is suppressed in increased of the magnetic Rayleigh number and the paramagnetic fluid parameter for the present investigation. Originality/value - It is possible to control the buoyancy force by using the super conducting magnet. To the best knowledge of the author no literature related to magnetic convection for this configuration is available.

Utilization of bio-oil for cooking and lighting

Among the available alternative sources of energy in Bangladesh bio-oil is recognized to be a promising alternative energy source. Bio-oil can be extracted by pyrolysis as well as expelling or solvent extractionmethod. In these days bio-oil is merely used in vehicles and power plants after some up gradation .However, it is not used for domestic purposes like cooking and lighting due to its high density and viscosity. This paper outlines the design of a gravity stove to use high dense and viscous bio-oil for cooking purpose. For this, Pongamia pinnata (karanj) oil extracted by solvent extraction method is used as fuel fed under gravity force. Efficiency of gravity stove with high dense and viscous bio-oil (karanj) is 11.81% which of kerosene stove is 17.80% also the discharge of karanj oil through gravity stove is sufficient for continuous burning. Thus, bio-oil can be effective replacement of kerosene for domestic purposes.