Wind farm power uncertainty quantification using a mean-variance estimation method

This paper proposes an innovative optimized parametric method for construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for uncertainty quantification. The mean-variance estimation (MVE) method employs two separate neural network (NN) models to estimate the mean and variance of targets. A new training method is developed in this study that adjusts parameters of NN models through minimization of a PI-based cost functions. A simulated annealing method is applied for minimization of the nonlinear non-differentiable cost function. The performance of the proposed method for PI construction is examined using monthly data sets taken from a wind farm in Australia. PIs for the wind farm power generation are constructed with five confidence levels between 50% and 90%. Demonstrated results indicate that valid PIs constructed using the optimized MVE method have a quality much better than the traditional MVE-based PIs.

Running in a minimalist and lightweight shoe is not the same as running barefoot : a biomechanical study

Aim The purpose of this study was to determine the changes in running mechanics that occur when highly trained runners run barefoot and in a minimalist shoe, and specifically if running in a minimalist shoe replicates barefoot running.

Methods Ground reaction force data and kinematics were collected from 22 highly trained runners during overground running while barefoot and in three shod conditions (minimalist shoe, racing flat and the athlete's regular shoe). Three-dimensional net joint moments and subsequent net powers and work were computed using Newton-Euler inverse dynamics. Joint kinematic and kinetic variables were statistically compared between barefoot and shod conditions using a multivariate analysis of variance for repeated measures and standardised mean differences calculated.

Results There were significant differences between barefoot and shod conditions for kinematic and kinetic variables at the knee and ankle, with no differences between shod conditions. Barefoot running demonstrated less knee flexion during midstance, an 11% decrease in the peak internal knee extension and abduction moments and a 24% decrease in negative work done at the knee compared with shod conditions. The ankle demonstrated less dorsiflexion at initial contact, a 14% increase in peak power generation and a 19% increase in the positive work done during barefoot running compared with shod conditions.

Conclusions Barefoot running was different to all shod conditions. Barefoot running changes the amount of work done at the knee and ankle joints and this may have therapeutic and performance implications for runners.

An approach for wind power integration using demand side resources

Renewable energy resources, especially wind power, are expected to provide a considerable portion of the world energy requirements in the near future. Large-scale wind power penetration impacts the electricity industry in many aspects and raises a number of technical challenges for the electricity network. A day-ahead network-constrained market clearing formulation is proposed which considers demand side resources. The proposed approach can provide flexible load profile and reduce the need for ramp up/down services by the conventional generators. This method can potentially facilitate a large penetration of wind power by shifting the wind power generation from the off-peak periods to the high-peak hours. The validity of the proposed approach has been verified using the IEEE 30 bus and 57 bus test systems.

Effect of weighted vest suit worn during daily activities on running speed, jumping power, and agility in young men

Effect of weighted vest suit worn during daily activities on running speed, jumping power, and agility in young men. J Strength Cond Res 26(11): 3030-3035, 2012-Previous weighted vest interventions using exercise in addition to hypergravity have been successful in improving postural balance and power production capacity. The purpose of this study was to investigate if hypergravity alone in daily activities excluding sporting activities is effective in improving neuromuscular performance in young adults. Eight male subjects (age = 32 [SD: 6] years, height = 178 [5] cm, and body mass = 81 [8] kg) wore weighted vests 3 d.wk-1 for 3 weeks during waking hours, excluding sporting activities. Control group comprised 9 male subjects (age = 32 [6] years, height = 179 [5] cm, and body mass = 83 [9] kg). Performance was assessed with countermovement jump (body mass normalized peak power), figure-of-8 running test (running time), and running velocity test at baseline and at the end of the intervention. At baseline, the groups did not differ from each other (multivariate analysis of variance [MANOVA] p = 0.828). A significant group × time interaction (MANOVA F = 5.1, p = 0.015) was observed for performance variables. Analysis of covariance indicated that the intervention improved the figureof- 8 running time (p = 0.016) (22.2 vs. 0.5%), whereas normalized peak power (0.0 vs. 1.6%) and running velocity (1.3 vs. 0.1%) were unaffected (p ≥ 0.095). Wearing weighted vests was effective in slightly improving agility-related performance in young men. Because the effect was small, applying hypergravity only during exercise probably suffices. It appears that a proper volume and intensity of hypergravity could be in the order of 5-10% body weight vest worn during up to 50% of the training sessions for a period of 3-4 weeks.

Distribution grid codes : opportunities and challenges

Traditional distribution networks were not originally designed to accommodate power generation facilities. The installation of distributed generation (DG) units with significatn capacity in these passive networks can cause reverse power flows which will result in some conflicts with the operation of the existing protection system. In this context, utilities around the world have started establishing requirements to ensure safe and reliable interconnection of generators in low- and medium-voltage networks. Grid interconnection is presently one of the most important issues involving DG. This paper presents a critical review of the requirements adopted by distribution companies in selected countries such as the USA, the UK, germany and Australia to facilitate the connection of DG. Critical issues such as voltage regulation, islanding operation, dynamic interactions among DG and loads are discussed to identify a few points where attention is still needed to improve the reliability of distribution systems

Performance study of a wind-grid system in a semi- arid region and major integration issues

The phenomenal growth in economy experienced in developed countries throughout the 20th century has largely been driven by the availability of conventional energy sources for electricity generation. However, increased concern about fossil fuels and adverse effect of carbon dioxide emission in to atmosphere changed the conventional power system to a viable one by integrating renewable energy sources into the existing system. Among the Renewable Energy (RE) sources, wind energy is one of the fastest growing technologies in reducing the Green House Gas (GHG) emissions in to the atmosphere due to its continuous availability throughout a period. Hence, this paper discusses the performance of a wind-grid connected system in a semi-arid region by conducting a case study. Wilson promontory, one of the best locations for wind generation in Victoria is considered as a case study. Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER) is used as a simulating tool for this analysis. This study also presents the influences of storage system in the proposed Hybrid Power System (HPS) allowing energy to be stored during higher generations or lower load demands. In addition this paper also discusses the major integration issues to facilitate the large scale wind energy into the grid for reliable power generation and distribution.

An optimized mean variance estimation method for uncertainty quantification of wind power forecasts

A statistical optimized technique for rapid development of reliable prediction intervals (PIs) is presented in this study. The mean-variance estimation (MVE) technique is employed here for quantification of uncertainties related with wind power predictions. In this method, two separate neural network models are used for estimation of wind power generation and its variance. A novel PI-based training algorithm is also presented to enhance the performance of the MVE method and improve the quality of PIs. For an in-depth analysis, comprehensive experiments are conducted with seasonal datasets taken from three geographically dispersed wind farms in Australia. Five confidence levels of PIs are between 50% and 90%. Obtained results show while both traditional and optimized PIs are hypothetically valid, the optimized PIs are much more informative than the traditional MVE PIs. The informativeness of these PIs paves the way for their application in trouble-free operation and smooth integration of wind farms into energy systems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum power point tracking of partial shaded photovoltaic array using an evolutionary algorithm: a particle swarm optimization technique

 Partial shading is one of the unavoidable complications in the field of solar power generation. Although the most common approach in increasing a photovoltaic (PV) array’s efficiency has always been to introduce a bypass diode to the said array, this poses another problem in the form of multi-peaks curves whenever the modules are partially shaded. To further complicate matters, most conventional Maximum Power Point Tracking methods develop errors under certain circumstances (for example, they detect the local Maximum Power Point (MPP) instead of the global MPP) and reduce the efficiency of PV systems even further. Presently, much research has been undertaken to improve upon them. This study aims to employ an evolutionary algorithm technique, also known as particle swarm optimization, in MPP detection. VC 2014 Author(s).

A novel fuzzy multi-objective framework to construct optimal prediction intervals for wind power forecast

The forecasting behavior of the high volatile and unpredictable wind power energy has always been a challenging issue in the power engineering area. In this regard, this paper proposes a new multi-objective framework based on fuzzy idea to construct optimal prediction intervals (Pis) to forecast wind power generation more sufficiently. The proposed method makes it possible to satisfy both the PI coverage probability (PICP) and PI normalized average width (PINAW), simultaneously. In order to model the stochastic and nonlinear behavior of the wind power samples, the idea of lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method is used here. Regarding the optimization tool, an improved version of particle swam optimization (PSO) is proposed. In order to see the feasibility and satisfying performance of the proposed method, the practical data of a wind farm in Australia is used as the case study.

A novel distributed algorithm for power loss minimizing in Smart Grid

Because power generation of renewable resources are unstable and demands of the customers are time-varying, the supply power and demands of the customers are always unequal. To meet the demands of the customers, power is transmitted from primary power generation to secondary power generation. It will cause high power loss. To solve this problem, a distributed algorithm is proposed in this paper. By using the algorithm, the micro-grids are able to exchange power with their neighbors so as to minimize the total power losses of the smart grid. Moreover, communication overhead (bandwidth) is reduced, comparing with centralized algorithm. Through computer simulations, we demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can lead to near-optimal result for alleviating the average power loss per micro-grid and reduce the communication overhead significantly in contrast with the centralized approach.

Rationale for the use of DC microgrids: feasibility, efficiency and protection analysis

Electrical power systems are undergoing highly significant changes in their structures. The emergence of renewable energy units in the power generation sector, the use of high-voltage DC in the power transmission sector, and the prevalence of islanded or integrated microgrids in the distribution sector are the strongest evidence supporting this claim. These changes are mostly the consequences of the increasing energy demand rate, climate change, and environmental challenges, as well as the high investment and maintenance cost of the previous structures. Considering these new conditions and according to the recent development in DC/DC conversion topologies and control techniques, different studies have been conducted on how and why DC microgrids outperform AC microgrids. This study discusses the feasibility of the DC microgrid system according to recent developments in power systems. The efficiency and power loss reduction in DC distribution systems are then analyzed, some of the common strategies and devices for protection systems in such networks are reviewed, and the possible and existing challenges in developing the DC microgrids are highlighted. The mathematical calculations and theories for this evaluation are presented to determine the reliable justification for selecting the appropriate microgrid systems.

Neoconservatism as discourse: virtue, power and US foreign policy

Neoconservatism in US foreign policy is a hotly contested subject, yet most scholars broadly agree on what it is and where it comes from. From a consensus that it first emerged around the 1960s, these scholars view neoconservatism through what we call the ‘3Ps’ approach, defining it as a particular group of people (‘neocons’), an array of foreign policy preferences and/or an ideological commitment to a set of principles. While descriptively intuitive, this approach reifies neoconservatism in terms of its specific and often static ‘symptoms’ rather than its dynamic constitutions. These reifications may reveal what is emblematic of neoconservatism in its particular historical and political context, but they fail to offer deeper insights into what is constitutive of neoconservatism. Addressing this neglected question, this article dislodges neoconservatism from itsperceived home in the ‘3Ps’ and ontologically redefines it as a discourse. Adopting aFoucauldian approach of archaeological and genealogical discourse analysis, we trace itsdiscursive formations primarily to two powerful and historically enduring discourses ofthe American self — virtue and power — and illustrate how these discourses produce aparticular type of discursive fusion that is ‘neoconservatism’. We argue that to betterappreciate its continued effect on contemporary and future US foreign policy, we needto pay close attention to those seemingly innocuous yet deeply embedded discoursesabout the US and its place in the world, as well as to the people, policies and principlesconventionally associated with neoconservatism.