999 resultados para forecast evaluation


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A total of 868 (84.89%) patients diagnosed with tetanus were studied, out of the 1,024 tetanus patients hospitalized at Couto Maia Hospital (Salvador, Bahia, Brazil), during the period between 1986 and 1997. Of this group (n = 868), 63.5% (n = 551) were discharged, 35.4% (n = 307) died, and 1.1% (n = 10) were transferred. The average age of the deceased patients (38.73 ± 23.31 years) was significantly greater (p < 0.0001) than the age of those who survived (29.21 ± 20.05 years). Analyzing the variables of the logistic regression model with statistic significance (p £ 0.25) for univariate analysis, we observed a greater association of risk for worst prognosis (death) in patients aged ³ 51 years; time of illness < 48 hours; time of incubation < 168 hours; neck rigidity; spasms; opisthotonos; body temperature ³ 37.7 ºC; heart beat ³ 111 beats/minute; sympathetic hyperactivity and association with pneumonia. Among the group of those who survived, patients with 1 to 5 of those variables (n = 398; 76.8%) were more frequent, while among patients of the group of the deceased, 70.3% (n = 206) presented 6 to 10 of those variables, with a highly significant difference (p < 10-8). In conclusion, the indicators described provide early information that may guide the prognosis and medical and nurse care.

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Based on a retrospective case-control study we evaluated the score system adopted by the Ministry of Health of Brazil (Ministério da Saúde - MS), to diagnose pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in childhood. This system is independent of bacteriological or histopathological data to define a very likely (> or = 40 points), possible (30-35 points) or unlikely (< or = 25 points) diagnosis of tuberculosis. Records of hospitalized non-infected HIV children at the Instituto de Puericultura e Pediatria Martagão Gesteira of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (IPPMG-UFRJ), were reviewed. Patients were adjusted for age and divided in two different groups: 45 subjects in the case group (culture-positive) [mean of age = 10.64 mo; SD 9.66]; and 96 in the control group (culture-negative and clinic criteria that dismissed the disease) [mean of age = 11.79 mo.; SD 11.31]. Among the variables analyzed, the radiological status had the greater impact into the diagnosis (OR = 25.39), followed by exposure to adult with tuberculosis (OR = 10.67), tuberculin skin test >10mm (OR = 8.23). The best cut-off point to the diagnosis of PTB was 30 points, where the score system was more accurate, with sensitivity of 88.9% and specificity of 86.5%.

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This study evaluated the whole blood immunochromatographic card test (ICT card test) in a survey performed in Northeastern Brazil. 625 people were examined by the thick blood film (TBF) and ICT card test. Residents of a non-endemic area were also tested by the whole blood card test and Og4C3. The sensitivity of the ICT card test was 94.7% overall, but lower in females than males, based on the reasonable assumption that TBF is 100% specific. However, since TBF and other methods have unknown sensitivity, the true specificity of the card test is unknown. Nevertheless, it is possible to estimate upper and lower limits for the specificity, and relate it to the prevalence of the disease. In the endemic area, the possible range of the specificity was from 72.4% to 100%. 29.6% of the card tests performed in the non-endemic area exhibited faint lines that were interpreted as positives. Characteristics of the method including high sensitivity, promptness and simplicity justify its use for screening of filariasis. However, detailed information about the correct interpretation in case of extremely faint lines is essential. Further studies designed to consider problems arising from imperfect standards are necessary, as is a sounder diagnostic definition for the card test.

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Signal-to-interference ratio (SIR) performance of a multiband orthogonal frequency division multiplexing ultra-wideband system with residual timing offset is investigated. To do so, an exact mathematical derivation of the SIR of this system is derived. It becomes obvious that, unlike a cyclic prefixing based system, a zero padding based system is sensitive to residual timing offset.

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The formalin-Tween sedimentation method was compared with the formalin-ether sedimentation for parasitic detection. Of a total 297 fecal specimens examined, 72.1% were positive. The formalin-tween technique was effective for ascertaining helminths, particularly Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm eggs; however it has less capability for protozoa detection. This method is simple, inexpensive, less time consuming and highly sensitive when detecting the parasitic infection, particularly when focusing on helminth eggs.

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This article describes the standardization and evaluation of an in-house specific IgG avidity ELISA for distinguishing recent primary from long-term human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection. The test was standardized with the commercial kit ETI-CYTOK G Plus (Sorin Biomedica, Italy) using 8 M urea in phosphate-buffered saline to dissociate low-avidity antibodies after the antigen-antibody interaction. The performance of the in-house assay was compared to that of the commercial automated VIDAS CMV IgG avidity test (bioMérieux, France). Forty-nine sera, 24 from patients with a recent primary HCMV infection and 25 from patients with a long-term HCMV infection and a sustained persistence of specific IgM antibodies, were tested. Similar results were obtained with the two avidity methods. All 24 sera from patients with recently acquired infection had avidity indices compatible with acute HCMV infection by the VIDAS method, whereas with the in-house method, one serum sample had an equivocal result. In the 25 sera from patients with long-term infection, identical results were obtained with the two methods, with only one serum sample having an incompatible value. These findings suggest that our in-house avidity test could be a potentially useful tool for the immunodiagnosis of HCMV infection.

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A total of 110 strains of Streptococcus suis, isolated from diseased pigs in Brazil were serotyped and analyzed for virulence. Serotyping of the strains resulted in the following classification: 42 strains of serotype 2 (38.2%), 10 strains of serotype 14 (9.1%), seven strains of serotype 9 (6.4%), three strains each of serotype 7 and 11 (2.7%), two strains each of serotype 1 and 8 (1.8%) and one strain each of serotypes ½, 3, 5, 6 and 10 (0.9%). Cross reactions among serotypes 1, 14 and 7 were observed in 21 strains (19.1%). Only 41.9% of the strains were lethal for mice using the pathogenicity test.

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The nomination of Guimarães to host the 2012 European Capital of Culture (ECC) has put on the agenda of the city the need of measuring the effects that the implementation of this mega event could have in it and in the municipality a whole. The balance of the benefits and costs and an extended community involvement tend to reduce negative impacts and enhance positive ones. This chapter analyzes the involvement of population and local associations in the planning and organization of the 2012 Guimarães European Capital of Culture, using the coverage made during 2011 by local and national press of the mega event. A content analysis of the news published covering the period between January and December 2011 and using three newspapers was conducted. From those, two were local and weekly newspapers and one was a national daily one. Looking to data results, it can be concluded that it was poor the community involvement and, also, the one of the cultural associations in the organizations of the 2012 ECC. A strong negative reaction to the model choose to plan the mega event conducted by official organizers was found, which has cast doubts on the desirable participation of the residents and, consequently, on the success of the mega event, especially in a perspective of a medium and long term effects.

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On a mobile ad-hoc network environment, where the resources are scarce, the knowledge about the network's link state is essential to optimize the routing procedures. This paper presents a study about different pheromone evaluation models and how they react to possible changes in traffic rate. Observing how the pheromone value on a link changes, it could be possible to identify certain patterns which can indicate the path status. For this study, the behavior of the Ant System evaluation model was compared with a Temporal Active Pheromone model (a biological approach) and a Progressive Pheromone Reduction model with and without a maximum pheromone limit.

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Presented at IEEE 21st International Conference on Embedded and Real-Time Computing Systems and Applications (RTCSA 2015). 19 to 21, Aug, 2015.