Causal Inference in Observational Studies with Outcome-Dependent Sampling

In this paper, we consider estimation of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome from observational data collected in two phases. In the first phase, a simple random sample of individuals are drawn from a population. On these individuals, information is obtained on treatment, outcome, and a few low-dimensional confounders. These individuals are then stratified according to these factors. In the second phase, a random sub-sample of individuals are drawn from each stratum, with known, stratum-specific selection probabilities. On these individuals, a rich set of confounding factors are collected. In this setting, we introduce four estimators: (1) simple inverse weighted, (2) locally efficient, (3) doubly robust and (4)enriched inverse weighted. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of these estimators in a simulation study. We also use our methodology to estimate the causal effect of trauma care on in-hospital mortality using data from the National Study of Cost and Outcomes of Trauma.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. DESIGN: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. METHODS: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. RESULTS: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone. CONCLUSION: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

Healthcare and patient costs of a proactive chlamydia screening programme: the Chlamydia Screening Studies project

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Most economic evaluations of chlamydia screening do not include costs incurred by patients. The objective of this study was to estimate both the health service and private costs of patients who participated in proactive chlamydia screening, using mailed home-collected specimens as part of the Chlamydia Screening Studies project. METHODS: Data were collected on the administrative costs of the screening study, laboratory time and motion studies and patient-cost questionnaire surveys were conducted. The cost for each screening invitation and for each accepted offer was estimated. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effects of variations in patient costs and the number of patients accepting the screening offer. RESULTS: The time and costs of processing urine specimens and vulvo-vaginal swabs from women using two nucleic acid amplification tests were similar. The total cost per screening invitation was 20.37 pounds (95% CI 18.94 pounds to 24.83). This included the National Health Service cost per individual screening invitation 13.55 pounds (95% CI 13.15 pounds to 14.33) and average patient costs of 6.82 pounds (95% CI 5.48 pounds to 10.22). Administrative costs accounted for 50% of the overall cost. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of proactive chlamydia screening is comparable to those of opportunistic screening. Results from this study, which is the first to collect private patient costs associated with a chlamydia screening programme, could be used to inform future policy recommendations and provide unique primary cost data for economic evaluations.

Prediction of first coronary events with the Framingham score: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty exists about the performance of the Framingham risk score when applied in different populations. OBJECTIVE: We assessed calibration of the Framingham risk score (ie, relationship between predicted and observed coronary event rates) in US and non-US populations free of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We reviewed studies that evaluated the performance of the Framingham risk score to predict first coronary events in a validation cohort, as identified by Medline, EMBASE, BIOSIS, and Cochrane library searches (through August 2005). Two reviewers independently assessed 1496 studies for eligibility, extracted data, and performed quality assessment using predefined forms. RESULTS: We included 25 validation cohorts of different population groups (n = 128,000) in our main analysis. Calibration varied over a wide range from under- to overprediction of absolute risk by factors of 0.57 to 2.7. Risk prediction for 7 cohorts (n = 18658) from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand was well calibrated (corresponding figures: 0.87-1.08; for the 5 biggest cohorts). The estimated population risks for first coronary events were strongly associated (goodness of fit: R2 = 0.84) and in good agreement with observed risks (coefficient for predicted risk: beta = 0.84; 95% CI 0.41-1.26). In 18 European cohorts (n = 109499), the corresponding figures indicated close association (R2 = 0.72) but substantial overprediction (beta = 0.58, 95% CI 0.39-0.77). The risk score was well calibrated on the intercept for both population clusters. CONCLUSION: The Framingham score is well calibrated to predict first coronary events in populations from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. Overestimation of absolute risk in European cohorts requires recalibration procedures.

Drug treatment is superior to allografting as first-line therapy in chronic myeloid leukemia

Early allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) has been proposed as primary treatment modality for patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). This concept has been challenged by transplantation mortality and improved drug therapy. In a randomized study, primary HSCT and best available drug treatment (IFN based) were compared in newly diagnosed chronic phase CML patients. Assignment to treatment strategy was by genetic randomization according to availability of a matched related donor. Evaluation followed the intention-to-treat principle. Six hundred and twenty one patients with chronic phase CML were stratified for eligibility for HSCT. Three hundred and fifty four patients (62% male; median age, 40 years; range, 11-59 years) were eligible and randomized. One hundred and thirty five patients (38%) had a matched related donor, of whom 123 (91%) received a transplant within a median of 10 months (range, 2-106 months) from diagnosis. Two hundred and nineteen patients (62%) had no related donor and received best available drug treatment. With an observation time up to 11.2 years (median, 8.9 years), survival was superior for patients with drug treatment (P = .049), superiority being most pronounced in low-risk patients (P = .032). The general recommendation of HSCT as first-line treatment option in chronic phase CML can no longer be maintained. It should be replaced by a trial with modern drug treatment first.

Decision-making dysregulation in first-episode schizophrenia

Studies with chronic schizophrenia patients have demonstrated that patients fluctuate between rigid and unpredictable responses in decision-making situations, a phenomenon which has been called dysregulation. The aim of this study was to investigate whether schizophrenia patients already display dysregulated behavior at the beginning of their illness. Thirty-two first-episode schizophrenia or schizophreniform patients and 30 healthy controls performed the two-choice prediction task. The decision-making behavior of first-episode patients was shown to be characterized by a high degree of dysregulation accompanied by low metric entropy and a tendency towards increased mutual information. These results indicate that behavioral abnormalities during the two-choice prediction task are already present during the early stages of the illness.

[Exposure of the Swiss population to radiation from diagnostic x-ray studies]

A new study is presently being conducted on the exposure of the Swiss population to radiation by diagnostic measures. This study is performed by the Department of Medical Radiation Physics of the University of Berne in collaboration with the Federal Health Bureau and the Swiss Institute for Health and Hospital Matters. In earlier studies the genetically significant exposure of the population and subsequently the median exposure of the red bone marrow had been investigated, whereas now the risk exposure to radiation of as far as possible practically all the risk-relevant organs will be studied. Prior to the initiation of the study, all results of earlier investigations during 1957, 1971 and 1978 were collected and analysed. It was found that the published results are hardly comparable, since the first study was based on individual X-ray examinations and the two subsequent studies on the localised X-ray examinations. To ensure that all data are now comparable, the results of the three studies were appropriately recalculated. Although certain assumptions had to be made that cannot be fully verified any more in view of the time that has elapsed, the collected results will provide a fairly reliable overview of the present-day state of knowledge in this particular field.

Restoration of forest wetlands: Case studies in Michigan and Finland

Forested wetlands throughout the world are valuable habitats; especially in relatively species-poor northern regions, they can be considered biological hotspots. Unfortunately, these areas have been degraded and destroyed. In recent years, however, the biological importance of wetlands has been increasingly recognized, resulting in the desire to restore disturbed habitats or create in place of destroyed ones. Restoration work is taking place across the globe in a diversity of wetland types, and research must be conducted to determine successful techniques. As a result, two studies of the effects of wetland restoration and creation were conducted in forested wetlands in northern Michigan and southern Finland. In North America, northern white-cedar wetlands have been declining in area, despite attempts to regenerate them. Improved methods for successfully establishing northern white-cedar are needed; as a result, the target of the first study was to determine if creating microtopography could be beneficial for white-cedar recruitment and growth. In northern Europe, spruce swamp forests have become a threatened ecosystem due to extensive drainage for forestry. As part of the restoration of these habitats, i.e. rewetting through ditch blocking, Sphagnum mosses are considered to be a critical element to re-establish, and an in-depth analysis of how Sphagnum is responding to restoration in spruce swamp forests has not been previously done. As a result, the aim of the second study was to investigate the ecophysiological functioning of Sphagnum and feather mosses across a gradient of pristine, drained, and restored boreal spruce swamp forests.

Charge and spin transport in nanoscale junction from first principles

Recently nanoscale junctions consisting of 0-D nanostructures (single molecule) or 1-D nanostructures (semiconducting nanowire) sandwiched between two metal electrodes are successfully fabricated and characterized. What lacks in the recent developments is the understanding of the mechanism behind the observed phenomena at the level of atoms and electrons. For example, the origin of observed switching effect in a semiconducting nanowire due to the influence of an external gate bias is not yet understood at the electronic structure level. On the same context, different experimental groups have reported different signs in tunneling magneto-resistance for the same organic spin valve structure, which has baffled researchers working in this field. In this thesis, we present the answers to some of these subtle questions by investigating the charge and spin transport in different nanoscale junctions. A parameter-free, single particle Green’s function approach in conjunction with a posteriori density functional theory (DFT) involving a hybrid orbital dependent functional is used to calculate the tunneling current in the coherent transport limit. The effect of spin polarization is explicitly incorporated to investigate spin transport in a nanoscale junction. Through the electron transport studies in PbS nanowire junction, a new orbital controlled mechanism behind the switching of the current is proposed. It can explain the switching behavior, not only in PbS nanowire, but in other lead-chalcogenide nanowires as well. Beside this, the electronic structure properties of this nanowire are studied using periodic DFT. The quantum confinement effect was investigated by calculating the bandgap of PbS nanowires with different diameters. Subsequently, we explain an observed semiconducting to metallic phase transition of this nanowire by calculating the bandgap of the nanowire under uniform radial strain. The compressive radial strain on the nanowire was found to be responsible for the metallic to semiconducting phase transition. Apart from studying one dimensional nanostructure, we also present transport properties in zero dimensional single molecular junctions. We proposed a new codoping approach in a single molecular carborane junction, where a cation and an anion are simultaneously doped to find the role of a single atom in the device. The main purpose was to build a molecular junction where a single atom can dictate the flow of electrons in a circuit. Recent observations of both positive and negative sign in tunneling magnetoresistance (TMR) the using same organic spin-valve structure hasmystified researchers. From our spin dependent transport studies in a prototypical organic molecular tunneling device, we found that a 3% change in metal-molecule interfacial distance can alter the sign of TMR. Changing the interfacial distance by 3%, the number of participating eigenstates as well as their orbital characteristic changes for anti-parallel configuration of the magnetization at the two electrodes, leading to the sign reversal of the TMR. Apart from this, the magnetic proximity effect under applied bias is investigated quantitatively, which can be used to understand the observed unexpectedmagnetismin carbon basedmaterials when they are in close proximity with magnetic substrates.

The international spine registry SPINE TANGO: status quo and first results

With an official life time of over 5 years, Spine Tango can meanwhile be considered the first international spine registry. In this paper we present an overview of frequency statistics of Spine Tango for demonstrating the genesis of questionnaire development and the constantly increasing activity in the registry. Results from two exemplar studies serve for showing concepts of data analysis applied to a spine registry. Between 2002 and 2006, about 6,000 datasets were submitted by 25 centres. Descriptive analyses were performed for demographic, surgical and follow-up data of three generations of the Spine Tango surgery and follow-up forms. The two exemplar studies used multiple linear regression models to identify potential predictor variables for the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion, and to evaluate which covariates influenced the length of hospital stay. Over the study period there was a rise in median patient age from 52.3 to 58.6 years in the Spine Tango data pool and an increasing percentage of degenerative diseases as main pathology from 59.9 to 71.4%. Posterior decompression was the most frequent surgical measure. About one-third of all patients had documented follow-ups. The complication rate remained below 10%. The exemplar studies identified "centre of intervention" and "number of segments of fusion" as predictors of the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion surgery. Length of hospital stay among patients with posterior fusion was significantly influenced by "centre of intervention", "surgeon credentials", "number of segments of fusion", "age group" and "sex". Data analysis from Spine Tango is possible but complicated by the incompatibility of questionnaire generations 1 and 2 with the more recent generation 3. Although descriptive and also analytic studies at evidence level 2++ can be performed, findings cannot yet be generalised to any specific country or patient population. Current limitations of Spine Tango include the low number and short duration of follow-ups and the lack of sufficiently detailed patient data on subgroup levels. Although the number of participants is steadily growing, no country is yet represented with a sufficient number of hospitals. Nevertheless, the benefits of the project for the whole spine community become increasingly visible.

Inhibition of L-type amino acid transport with non-physiological amino acids in the Pahenu2 mouse model of phenylketonuria

Phenylketonuria, an autosomal recessive Mendelian disorder, is one of the most common inborn errors of metabolism. Although currently treated by diet, many suboptimal outcomes occur for patients. Neuropathological outcomes include cognitive loss, white matter abnormalities, and hypo- or demyelination, resulting from high concentrations and/or fluctuating levels of phenylalanine. High phenylalanine can also result in competitive exclusion of other large neutral amino acids from the brain, including tyrosine and tryptophan (essential precursors of dopamine and serotonin). This competition occurs at the blood brain barrier, where the L-type amino acid transporter, LAT1, selectively facilitates entry of large neutral amino acids. The hypothesis of these studies is that certain non-physiological amino acids (NPAA; DL-norleucine (NL), 2-aminonorbornane (NB; 2-aminobicyclo-(2,1,1)-heptane-2-carboxylic acid), α-aminoisobutyrate (AIB), and α-methyl-aminoisobutyrate (MAIB)) would competitively inhibit LAT1 transport of phenylalanine (Phe) at the blood-brain barrier interface. To test this hypothesis, Pah-/- mice (n=5, mixed gender; Pah+/-(n=5) as controls) were fed either 5% NL, 0.5% NB, 5% AIB or 3% MAIB (w/w 18% protein mouse chow) for 3 weeks. Outcome measurements included food intake, body weight, brain LNAAs, and brain monoamines measured via LCMS/MS or HPLC. Brain Phe values at sacrifice were significantly reduced for NL, NB, and MAIB, verifying the hypothesis that these NPAAs could inhibit Phe trafficking into the brain. However, concomitant reductions in tyrosine and methionine occurred at the concentrations employed. Blood Phe levels were not altered indicating no effect of NPAA competitors in the gut. Brain NL and NB levels, measured with HPLC, verified both uptake and transport of NPAAs. Although believed predominantly unmetabolized, NL feeding significantly increased blood urea nitrogen. Pah-/-disturbances of monoamine metabolism were exacerbated by NPAA intervention, primarily with NB (the prototypical LAT inhibitor). To achieve the overarching goal of using NPAAs to stabilize Phe transport levels into the brain, a specific Phe-reducing combination and concentration of NPAAs must be found. Our studies represent the first in vivo use of NL, NB and MAIB in Pah-/- mice, and provide proof-of-principle for further characterization of these LAT inhibitors. Our data is the first to document an effect of MAIB, a specific system A transport inhibitor, on large neutral amino acid transport.

Prognostic importance of anaemia in HIV type-1-infected patients starting antiretroviral therapy: collaborative analysis of prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND: In HIV type-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the prognostic value of haemoglobin when starting HAART, and of changes in haemoglobin levels, are not well defined. METHODS: We combined data from 10 prospective studies of 12,100 previously untreated individuals (25% women). A total of 4,222 patients (35%) were anaemic: 131 patients (1.1%) had severe (<8.0 g/dl), 1,120 (9%) had moderate (male 8.0-<11.0 g/dl and female 8.0- < 10.0 g/dl) and 2,971 (25%) had mild (male 11.0- < 13.0 g/ dl and female 10.0- < 12.0 g/dl) anaemia. We separately analysed progression to AIDS or death from baseline and from 6 months using Weibull models, adjusting for CD4+ T-cell count, age, sex and other variables. RESULTS: During 48,420 person-years of follow-up 1,448 patients developed at least one AIDS event and 857 patients died. Anaemia at baseline was independently associated with higher mortality: the adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for mild anaemia was 1.42 (1.17-1.73), for moderate anaemia 2.56 (2.07-3.18) and for severe anaemia 5.26 (3.55-7.81). Corresponding figures for progression to AIDS were 1.60 (1.37-1.86), 2.00 (1.66-2.40) and 2.24 (1.46-3.42). At 6 months the prevalence of anaemia declined to 26%. Baseline anaemia continued to predict mortality (and to a lesser extent progression to AIDS) in patients with normal haemoglobin or mild anaemia at 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Anaemia at the start of HAART is an important factor for short- and long-term prognosis, including in patients whose haemoglobin levels improved or normalized during the first 6 months of HAART.

Genetic association studies under the population stratification, family pedigree and application to genome-wide association studies

This dissertation has three separate parts: the first part deals with the general pedigree association testing incorporating continuous covariates; the second part deals with the association tests under population stratification using the conditional likelihood tests; the third part deals with the genome-wide association studies based on the real rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease data sets from Genetic Analysis Workshop 16 (GAW16) problem 1. Many statistical tests are developed to test the linkage and association using either case-control status or phenotype covariates for family data structure, separately. Those univariate analyses might not use all the information coming from the family members in practical studies. On the other hand, the human complex disease do not have a clear inheritance pattern, there might exist the gene interactions or act independently. In part I, the new proposed approach MPDT is focused on how to use both the case control information as well as the phenotype covariates. This approach can be applied to detect multiple marker effects. Based on the two existing popular statistics in family studies for case-control and quantitative traits respectively, the new approach could be used in the simple family structure data set as well as general pedigree structure. The combined statistics are calculated using the two statistics; A permutation procedure is applied for assessing the p-value with adjustment from the Bonferroni for the multiple markers. We use simulation studies to evaluate the type I error rates and the powers of the proposed approach. Our results show that the combined test using both case-control information and phenotype covariates not only has the correct type I error rates but also is more powerful than the other existing methods. For multiple marker interactions, our proposed method is also very powerful. Selective genotyping is an economical strategy in detecting and mapping quantitative trait loci in the genetic dissection of complex disease. When the samples arise from different ethnic groups or an admixture population, all the existing selective genotyping methods may result in spurious association due to different ancestry distributions. The problem can be more serious when the sample size is large, a general requirement to obtain sufficient power to detect modest genetic effects for most complex traits. In part II, I describe a useful strategy in selective genotyping while population stratification is present. Our procedure used a principal component based approach to eliminate any effect of population stratification. The paper evaluates the performance of our procedure using both simulated data from an early study data sets and also the HapMap data sets in a variety of population admixture models generated from empirical data. There are one binary trait and two continuous traits in the rheumatoid arthritis dataset of Problem 1 in the Genetic Analysis Workshop 16 (GAW16): RA status, AntiCCP and IgM. To allow multiple traits, we suggest a set of SNP-level F statistics by the concept of multiple-correlation to measure the genetic association between multiple trait values and SNP-specific genotypic scores and obtain their null distributions. Hereby, we perform 6 genome-wide association analyses using the novel one- and two-stage approaches which are based on single, double and triple traits. Incorporating all these 6 analyses, we successfully validate the SNPs which have been identified to be responsible for rheumatoid arthritis in the literature and detect more disease susceptibility SNPs for follow-up studies in the future. Except for chromosome 13 and 18, each of the others is found to harbour susceptible genetic regions for rheumatoid arthritis or related diseases, i.e., lupus erythematosus. This topic is discussed in part III.

EXPERIMENTAL AND COMPUTATIONAL STUDIES OF ELECTROMAGNETIC CLOAKING AT MICROWAVES

An invisibility cloak is a device that can hide the target by enclosing it from the incident radiation. This intriguing device has attracted a lot of attention since it was first implemented at a microwave frequency in 2006. However, the problems of existing cloak designs prevent them from being widely applied in practice. In this dissertation, we try to remove or alleviate the three constraints for practical applications imposed by loosy cloaking media, high implementation complexity, and small size of hidden objects compared to the incident wavelength. To facilitate cloaking design and experimental characterization, several devices and relevant techniques for measuring the complex permittivity of dielectric materials at microwave frequencies are developed. In particular, a unique parallel plate waveguide chamber has been set up to automatically map the electromagnetic (EM) field distribution for wave propagation through the resonator arrays and cloaking structures. The total scattering cross section of the cloaking structures was derived based on the measured scattering field by using this apparatus. To overcome the adverse effects of lossy cloaking media, microwave cloaks composed of identical dielectric resonators made of low loss ceramic materials are designed and implemented. The effective permeability dispersion was provided by tailoring dielectric resonator filling fractions. The cloak performances had been verified by full-wave simulation of true multi-resonator structures and experimental measurements of the fabricated prototypes. With the aim to reduce the implementation complexity caused by metamaterials employment for cloaking, we proposed to design 2-D cylindrical cloaks and 3-D spherical cloaks by using multi-layer ordinary dielectric material (εr>1) coating. Genetic algorithm was employed to optimize the dielectric profiles of the cloaking shells to provide the minimum scattering cross sections of the cloaked targets. The designed cloaks can be easily scaled to various operating frequencies. The simulation results show that the multi-layer cylindrical cloak essentially outperforms the similarly sized metamaterials-based cloak designed by using the transformation optics-based reduced parameters. For the designed spherical cloak, the simulated scattering pattern shows that the total scattering cross section is greatly reduced. In addition, the scattering in specific directions could be significantly reduced. It is shown that the cloaking efficiency for larger targets could be improved by employing lossy materials in the shell. At last, we propose to hide a target inside a waveguide structure filled with only epsilon near zero materials, which are easy to implement in practice. The cloaking efficiency of this method, which was found to increase for large targets, has been confirmed both theoretically and by simulations.

Maximum principle preserving high order schemes for convection-dominated diffusion equations

The maximum principle is an important property of solutions to PDE. Correspondingly, it's of great interest for people to design a high order numerical scheme solving PDE with this property maintained. In this thesis, our particular interest is solving convection-dominated diffusion equation. We first review a nonconventional maximum principle preserving(MPP) high order finite volume(FV) WENO scheme, and then propose a new parametrized MPP high order finite difference(FD) WENO framework, which is generalized from the one solving hyperbolic conservation laws. A formal analysis is presented to show that a third order finite difference scheme with this parametrized MPP flux limiters maintains the third order accuracy without extra CFL constraint when the low order monotone flux is chosen appropriately. Numerical tests in both one and two dimensional cases are performed on the simulation of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in vorticity stream-function formulation and several other problems to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.