Maintaining or changing a drinking behavior? GOKA's short-term outcomes

During the critical neurobiological and social developmental period of adolescence, binge drinking of alcohol increases the risk of mental health problems, school exclusion, convictions, fatal and non-fatal accidents. The present research utilizes a simple cluster randomized control trial design to evaluate a social marketing program, Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA), employing innovative online edutainment games to target binge drinking. Pre and post data were collected for seven program (942 students, mean age: 14.6 years) and five control schools (578 students, mean age: 14.4 years). Significant improvements in alcohol knowledge and affective attitude toward binge drinking was observed for adolescents who participated in GOKA compared to the control group, with maintenance of desirable subjective norms, instrumental attitudes and intentions. Given considerable external competition from messages promoting the benefits of alcohol use, a one-off program that modifies incorrect knowledge and alters perceptions of binge drinking as a fun, recreational activity represents an important step. This research contributes to current understanding of social marketing’s capacity to change drivers and maintain inhibitors of binge drinking intentions of adolescents and provides an important basis for future research in the domain.

Locating Indigenous Australia within community development practice : clients, consumers or change makers?

The philosophical promise of community development to “resource and empower people so that they can collectively control their own destinies” (Kenny 1996:104) is no doubt alluring to Indigenous Australia. Given the historical and contemporary experiences of colonial control and surveillance of Aboriginal bodies, alongside the continuing experiences of socio-economic disadvantage, community development reaffirms the aspirational goal of Indigenous Australians for self-determination. Self-determination as a national policy agenda for Indigenous Australians emerged in the 1970s and saw the establishment of a wide range of Aboriginal community-controlled services (Tsey et al 2012). Sullivan (2010:4) argues that the Aboriginal community controlled service sector during this time has, and continues to be, instrumental to advancing the plight of Indigenous Australians both materially and politically. Yet community development and self-determination remain highly problematic and contested in how they manifest in Indigenous social policy agendas and in practice (Hollinsworth 1996; Martin 2003; McCausland 2005; Moreton-Robinson 2009). Moreton-Robinson (2009:68) argues that a central theme underpinning these tensions is a reading of Indigeneity in which Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, behaviours, cultures, and communities are pathologised as “dysfunctional” thus enabling assertions that Indigenous people are incapable of managing their own affairs. This discourse distracts us from the “strategies and tactics of patriarchal white sovereignty” that inhibit the “state’s earlier policy of self-determination” (Moreton-Robinson 2009:68). We acknowledge the irony of community development espoused by Ramirez above (1990), that the least resourced are expected to be most resourceful.; however, we wish to interrogate the processes that inhibit Indigenous participation and control of our own affairs rather than further interrogate Aboriginal minds as uneducated, incapable and/or impaired...

On the use of optical flow for scene change detection and description

We propose the use of optical flow information as a method for detecting and describing changes in the environment, from the perspective of a mobile camera. We analyze the characteristics of the optical flow signal and demonstrate how robust flow vectors can be generated and used for the detection of depth discontinuities and appearance changes at key locations. To successfully achieve this task, a full discussion on camera positioning, distortion compensation, noise filtering, and parameter estimation is presented. We then extract statistical attributes from the flow signal to describe the location of the scene changes. We also employ clustering and dominant shape of vectors to increase the descriptiveness. Once a database of nodes (where a node is a detected scene change) and their corresponding flow features is created, matching can be performed whenever nodes are encountered, such that topological localization can be achieved. We retrieve the most likely node according to the Mahalanobis and Chi-square distances between the current frame and the database. The results illustrate the applicability of the technique for detecting and describing scene changes in diverse lighting conditions, considering indoor and outdoor environments and different robot platforms.

An external field prior for the hidden Potts model with application to cone-beam computed tomography

In images with low contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), the information gain from the observed pixel values can be insufficient to distinguish foreground objects. A Bayesian approach to this problem is to incorporate prior information about the objects into a statistical model. A method for representing spatial prior information as an external field in a hidden Potts model is introduced. This prior distribution over the latent pixel labels is a mixture of Gaussian fields, centred on the positions of the objects at a previous point in time. It is particularly applicable in longitudinal imaging studies, where the manual segmentation of one image can be used as a prior for automatic segmentation of subsequent images. The method is demonstrated by application to cone-beam computed tomography (CT), an imaging modality that exhibits distortions in pixel values due to X-ray scatter. The external field prior results in a substantial improvement in segmentation accuracy, reducing the mean pixel misclassification rate for an electron density phantom from 87% to 6%. The method is also applied to radiotherapy patient data, demonstrating how to derive the external field prior in a clinical context.

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analysis of passenger group behaviour and its impact on passenger flow using an agent-based model

Group interaction within crowds is a common phenomenon and has great influence on pedestrian behaviour. This paper investigates the impact of passenger group dynamics using an agent-based simulation method for the outbound passenger process at airports. Unlike most passenger-flow models that treat passengers as individual agents, the proposed model additionally incorporates their group dynamics as well. The simulation compares passenger behaviour at airport processes and discretionary services under different group formations. Results from experiments (both qualitative and quantitative) show that incorporating group attributes, in particular, the interactions with fellow travellers and wavers can have significant influence on passengers activity preference as well as the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model also provides a convenient way to investigate the effectiveness of airport space design and service allocations, which can contribute to positive passenger experiences. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Dynamic agent composition for large-scale agent-based models

PURPOSE: This paper describes dynamic agent composition, used to support the development of flexible and extensible large-scale agent-based models (ABMs). This approach was motivated by a need to extend and modify, with ease, an ABM with an underlying networked structure as more information becomes available. Flexibility was also sought after so that simulations are set up with ease, without the need to program. METHODS: The dynamic agent composition approach consists in having agents, whose implementation has been broken into atomic units, come together at runtime to form the complex system representation on which simulations are run. These components capture information at a fine level of detail and provide a vast range of combinations and options for a modeller to create ABMs. RESULTS: A description of the dynamic agent composition is given in this paper, as well as details about its implementation within MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model), a software framework which is applied to the planning of the electricity distribution network. Illustrations of the implementation of the dynamic agent composition are consequently given for that domain throughout the paper. It is however expected that this approach will be beneficial to other problem domains, especially those with a networked structure, such as water or gas networks. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic agent composition has many advantages over the way agent-based models are traditionally built for the users, the developers, as well as for agent-based modelling as a scientific approach. Developers can extend the model without the need to access or modify previously written code; they can develop groups of entities independently and add them to those already defined to extend the model. Users can mix-and-match already implemented components to form large-scales ABMs, allowing them to quickly setup simulations and easily compare scenarios without the need to program. The dynamic agent composition provides a natural simulation space over which ABMs of networked structures are represented, facilitating their implementation; and verification and validation of models is facilitated by quickly setting up alternative simulations.

Superpixel-based appearance change prediction for long-term navigation across seasons

Changing environments pose a serious problem to current robotic systems aiming at long term operation under varying seasons or local weather conditions. This paper is built on our previous work where we propose to learn to predict the changes in an environment. Our key insight is that the occurring scene changes are in part systematic, repeatable and therefore predictable. The goal of our work is to support existing approaches to place recognition by learning how the visual appearance of an environment changes over time and by using this learned knowledge to predict its appearance under different environmental conditions. We describe the general idea of appearance change prediction (ACP) and investigate properties of our novel implementation based on vocabularies of superpixels (SP-ACP). Our previous work showed that the proposed approach significantly improves the performance of SeqSLAM and BRIEF-Gist for place recognition on a subset of the Nordland dataset under extremely different environmental conditions in summer and winter. This paper deepens the understanding of the proposed SP-ACP system and evaluates the influence of its parameters. We present the results of a large-scale experiment on the complete 10 h Nordland dataset and appearance change predictions between different combinations of seasons.

The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine preventable infectious diseases and immunisation service delivery system

Climate change and solar ultraviolet radiation may affect vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPID), the human immune response process and the immunization service delivery system. We systematically reviewed the scientific literature and identified 37 relevant publications. Our study shows that climate variability and ultraviolet radiation may potentially affect VPID and the immunization delivery system through modulating vector reproduction and vaccination effectiveness, possibly influencing human immune response systems to the vaccination, and disturbing immunization service delivery. Further research is needed to determine these affects on climate-sensitive VPID and on human immune response to common vaccines. Such research will facilitate the development and delivery of optimal vaccination programs for target populations, to meet the goal of disease control and elimination.

Reconceptualizing green infrastructure for climate change adaptation: Barriers to adoption and drivers for uptake by spatial planners

Urban green infrastructure can help cities adapt to climate change. Spatial planning can play an important role in utilizing green infrastructure for adaptation. Yet climate change risks represent a different sort of challenge for planning institutions. This paper aims to address two issues arising from this challenge. First, it defines the concept of green infrastructure within the context of climate adaptation. Second, it identifies and puts into perspective institutional barriers to adopting green infrastructure for climate adaptation, including path dependence. We begin by arguing that there is growing confusion among planners and policy makers about what constitutes green infrastructure. Definitional ambiguity may contribute to inaction on climate change adaptation, because it muddies existing programs and initiatives that are to do with green-space more broadly, which in turn feeds path dependency. We then report empirical findings about how planners perceive the institutional challenge arising from climate change and the adoption of green infrastructure as an adaptive response. The paper concludes that spatial planners generally recognize multiple rationales associated with green infrastructure. However they are not particularly keen on institutional innovation and there is a tendency for path dependence. We propose a conceptual model that explicitly recognizes such institutional factors. This paper contributes to the literature by showing that agency and institutional dimensions are a limiting factor in advancing the concept of green infrastructure within the context of climate change adaptation.

An agent-based approach to immune modelling

This study focuses on trying to understand why the range of experience with respect to HIV infection is so diverse, especially as regards to the latency period. The challenge is to determine what assumptions can be made about the nature of the experience of antigenic invasion and diversity that can be modelled, tested and argued plausibly. To investigate this, an agent-based approach is used to extract high-level behaviour which cannot be described analytically from the set of interaction rules at the cellular level. A prototype model encompasses local variation in baseline properties contributing to the individual disease experience and is included in a network which mimics the chain of lymphatic nodes. Dealing with massively multi-agent systems requires major computational efforts. However, parallelisation methods are a natural consequence and advantage of the multi-agent approach. These are implemented using the MPI library.

Considerations for a social and geographical framework for agent-based epidemics

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is of crucial importance, in contexts such as estimating load on medical services to risk assessment and intervention policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the spread itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we investigate the use of agent-based simulations to model such outbreaks in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena.Presented in this paper is the initial framework for such a model, detailing implementation of geographical features and generation of social structures. Preliminary results are a promising step towards large-scale simulations and evaluation of potential intervention policies.

Model refinement through high-performance computing: an agent-based HIV example

Background Recent advances in Immunology highlighted the importance of local properties on the overall progression of HIV infection. In particular, the gastrointestinal tract is seen as a key area during early infection, and the massive cell depletion associated with it may influence subsequent disease progression. This motivated the development of a large-scale agent-based model. Results Lymph nodes are explicitly implemented, and considerations on parallel computing permit large simulations and the inclusion of local features. The results obtained show that GI tract inclusion in the model leads to an accelerated disease progression, during both the early stages and the long-term evolution, compared to a theoretical, uniform model. Conclusions These results confirm the potential of treatment policies currently under investigation, which focus on this region. They also highlight the potential of this modelling framework, incorporating both agent-based and network-based components, in the context of complex systems where scaling-up alone does not result in models providing additional insights.

Agent-based modelling of viral infection

The three phases of the macroscopic evolution of the HIV infection are well known, but it is still difficult to understand how the cellular-level interactions come together to create this characteristic pattern and, in particular, why there are such differences in individual responses. An 'agent-based' approach is chosen as a means of inferring high-level behaviour from a small set of interaction rules at the cellular level. Here the emphasis is on cell mobility and viral mutations.

A parallel approach to social network generation and agent-based epidemic simulation

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is essential in contexts such as estimating load on medical services, as well as risk assessment and interven- tion policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the outbreak itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we report on an agent-based model developed to investigate such epidemic events in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena. Given the scale of the system, efficient parallel computing is required. In this presentation, we focus on aspects related to paralllelisation for large networks generation and massively multi-agent simulations.