Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination

This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.

Portafolio selection with skewness: a comparison of methods and a generalized two fund separation result

This contribution compares existing and newly developed techniques for geometrically representing mean-variances-kewness portfolio frontiers based on the rather widely adapted methodology of polynomial goal programming (PGP) on the one hand and the more recent approach based on the shortage function on the other hand. Moreover, we explain the working of these different methodologies in detail and provide graphical illustrations. Inspired by these illustrations, we prove a generalization of the well-known two fund separation theorem from traditionalmean-variance portfolio theory.

Is a pre-anaesthetic information form really useful ?

Background: All patients should be fully informed about the risks and benefits of anaesthetic procedures before giving a written consent. Moreover, the satisfaction level may vary in proportion to the information given. We aimed to determine, in a single-blind randomized-controlled study, whether an information form given before the pre-anaesthetic consultation could improve perceived information, information gain and satisfaction level. Methods: Two hundred patients ASA 1-3 scheduled for an elective orthopaedic surgery were randomized into two groups: a group that received an information form before the pre-anaesthetic consultation (IF group) and a control group (no information form). A standardized questionnaire was submitted after the pre-anaesthetic consultation and after the operation. This 17-item questionnaire explored perceived information (five items), information gain (three items) and satisfaction level (nine items). The items of each topic were pooled and compared between groups. Results: One hundred and eighty-five patients (92.5%) completed the study. The IF group had better perceived information (IF group 73% vs. control group 63%, P=0.002), higher information gain (IF group 75% vs. control group 62%, P=0.001) and a higher satisfaction level (IF group 95% vs. control group 92%, P=0.048). Conclusions: Our study suggests that an information form given before the pre-anaesthetic consultation enhances perceived information, information gain and satisfaction level. Méthode Cette étude prospective randomisée en simple aveugle a été conduite à l'hôpital Orthopédique du Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois. Deux cents patients prévus pour une chirurgie élective orthopédique ont été recrutés entre avril et juin 2008 et repartis en deux groupes selon une table de randomisation : un groupe recevait une feuille d'information 30 minutes avant la consultation préanesthésique, et l'autre pas. Les patients des deux groupes étaient ensuite examinés à la consultation preoperatoire par un anesthésiste indépendant de l'étude, puis recevaient un questionnaire standardisé. Ce questionnaire, issu de questionnaires existants, et validé préalablement sur un échantillon de 50 patients, comportait 17 questions qui exploraient la perception- de l'information (5 questions), le gain d'information (3 questions) et le niveau de satisfaction (9 questions) Parmi ces 17 questions, 3 étaient posées 24 h après l'intervention chirurgicale lors d'une visite dans la chambre ou lors d'un contact téléphonique. Les réponses étaient analysées et comparées entre les deux groupes. Résultats Cent huitante-cinq patients ont terminé l'étude. Le groupe qui a reçu la feuille d'information avait une meilleure perception de l'information (73% vs 63% dans le groupe de contrôle, ρ = 0 002) un gain d'information plus élevé (75% vs. 62% dans le groupe de contrôle, ρ = 0.001) et un niveau de satisfaction plus élevé (95% vs. 92% dans le groupe de contrôle, ρ= 0.048). Discussion et conclusion Cette étude a permis de démontrer que la remise d'une feuille d'information explicative avant la consultation préanesthésique était un moyen simple et bon marché pour améliorer la perception de l'information et le niveau de satisfaction.

Kernel-based methods for change detection in remote sensing images

Nowadays, the joint exploitation of images acquired daily by remote sensing instruments and of images available from archives allows a detailed monitoring of the transitions occurring at the surface of the Earth. These modifications of the land cover generate spectral discrepancies that can be detected via the analysis of remote sensing images. Independently from the origin of the images and of type of surface change, a correct processing of such data implies the adoption of flexible, robust and possibly nonlinear method, to correctly account for the complex statistical relationships characterizing the pixels of the images. This Thesis deals with the development and the application of advanced statistical methods for multi-temporal optical remote sensing image processing tasks. Three different families of machine learning models have been explored and fundamental solutions for change detection problems are provided. In the first part, change detection with user supervision has been considered. In a first application, a nonlinear classifier has been applied with the intent of precisely delineating flooded regions from a pair of images. In a second case study, the spatial context of each pixel has been injected into another nonlinear classifier to obtain a precise mapping of new urban structures. In both cases, the user provides the classifier with examples of what he believes has changed or not. In the second part, a completely automatic and unsupervised method for precise binary detection of changes has been proposed. The technique allows a very accurate mapping without any user intervention, resulting particularly useful when readiness and reaction times of the system are a crucial constraint. In the third, the problem of statistical distributions shifting between acquisitions is studied. Two approaches to transform the couple of bi-temporal images and reduce their differences unrelated to changes in land cover are studied. The methods align the distributions of the images, so that the pixel-wise comparison could be carried out with higher accuracy. Furthermore, the second method can deal with images from different sensors, no matter the dimensionality of the data nor the spectral information content. This opens the doors to possible solutions for a crucial problem in the field: detecting changes when the images have been acquired by two different sensors.

Evaluation of four whole-plant inoculation methods to analyze the pathogenicity of Erwinia amylovora under quarantine conditions

Four methods were tested to assess the fire-blight disease response on grafted pear plants. The leaves of the plants were inoculated with Erwinia amylovora suspensions by pricking with clamps, cutting with scissors, local infiltration, and painting a bacterial suspension onto the leaves with a paintbrush. The effects of the inoculation methods were studied in dose-time-response experiments carried out in climate chambers under quarantine conditions. A modified Gompertz model was used to analyze the disease-time relatiobbnships and provided information on the rate of infection progression (rg) and time delay to the start of symptoms (t0). The disease-pathogen-dose relationships were analyzed according to a hyperbolic saturation model in which the median effective dose (ED50) of the pathogen and maximum disease level (ymax) were determined. Localized infiltration into the leaf mesophile resulted in the early (short t0) but slow (low rg) development of infection whereas in leaves pricked with clamps disease symptoms developed late (long t0) but rapidly (high rg). Paintbrush inoculation of the plants resulted in an incubation period of medium length, a moderate rate of infection progression, and low ymax values. In leaves inoculated with scissors, fire-blight symptoms developed early (short t0) and rapidly (high rg), and with the lowest ED50 and the highest ymax

Body composition: overview of methods and future directions of research.

A short overview is given on the most important analytical body composition methods. Principles of the methods and advantages and limitations of the methods are discussed also in relation to other fields of research such as energy metabolism. Attention is given to some new developments in body composition research such as chemical multiple-compartment models, computerized tomography or nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (tissue level), and multifrequency bioelectrical impedance. Possible future directions of body composition research in the light of these new developments are discussed.

Surgical management of hemorrhage from rupture of the aortic arch.

BACKGROUND: Control of hemorrhage in patients with active bleeding from rupture of the aortic arch is difficult, because of the location of the bleeding and the impossibility of cross-clamping the aorta without interfering with cerebral perfusion. A precise and swift plan of management helped us salvage some patients and prompted us to review our experience. METHODS: Six patients with active bleeding of the aortic arch in the mediastinum and pericardial cavity (5 patients) or left pleural cavity (1 patient), treated between 1992 and 1996, were reviewed. Bleeding was reduced by keeping the mediastinum under local tension (3 patients) or by applying compression on the bleeding site (2 patients), or both (1 patient) while circulatory support, retransfusion of aspirated blood, and hypothermia were established. The diseased aortic arch was replaced during deep hypothermic circulatory arrest, which ranged from 25 to 40 minutes. In 3 patients, the brain was further protected by retrograde (2 patients) or antegrade (1 patient) cerebral perfusion. RESULTS: Hemorrhage from the aortic arch was controlled in all patients. Two patients died postoperatively, one of respiratory failure and the other of abdominal sepsis. Recovery of neurologic function was assessed and complete in all patients. The 4 survivors are well 8 to 49 months after operation. CONCLUSIONS: An approach relying on local tamponade to reduce bleeding, rapid establishment of circulatory support and hypothermia, retransfusion of aspirated blood, and swift repair of the aortic arch under circulatory arrest allows salvage of patients with active bleeding from an aortic arch rupture.

A comparative analysis of two methods for the calculation of electric-field-induced perturbations to molecular vibration

Two common methods of accounting for electric-field-induced perturbations to molecular vibration are analyzed and compared. The first method is based on a perturbation-theoretic treatment and the second on a finite-field treatment. The relationship between the two, which is not immediately apparent, is made by developing an algebraic formalism for the latter. Some of the higher-order terms in this development are documented here for the first time. As well as considering vibrational dipole polarizabilities and hyperpolarizabilities, we also make mention of the vibrational Stark effec

A comparative analysis by means of quantum molecular similarity measures of density distributions derived from conventional ab initio and density functional methods

A procedure based on quantum molecular similarity measures (QMSM) has been used to compare electron densities obtained from conventional ab initio and density functional methodologies at their respective optimized geometries. This method has been applied to a series of small molecules which have experimentally known properties and molecular bonds of diverse degrees of ionicity and covalency. Results show that in most cases the electron densities obtained from density functional methodologies are of a similar quality than post-Hartree-Fock generalized densities. For molecules where Hartree-Fock methodology yields erroneous results, the density functional methodology is shown to yield usually more accurate densities than those provided by the second order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory

Two complementary molecular energy decomposition schemes: the Mayer and Ziegler-Rauk methods in comparison

In the present paper we discuss and compare two different energy decomposition schemes: Mayer's Hartree-Fock energy decomposition into diatomic and monoatomic contributions [Chem. Phys. Lett. 382, 265 (2003)], and the Ziegler-Rauk dissociation energy decomposition [Inorg. Chem. 18, 1558 (1979)]. The Ziegler-Rauk scheme is based on a separation of a molecule into fragments, while Mayer's scheme can be used in the cases where a fragmentation of the system in clearly separable parts is not possible. In the Mayer scheme, the density of a free atom is deformed to give the one-atom Mulliken density that subsequently interacts to give rise to the diatomic interaction energy. We give a detailed analysis of the diatomic energy contributions in the Mayer scheme and a close look onto the one-atom Mulliken densities. The Mulliken density ρA has a single large maximum around the nuclear position of the atom A, but exhibits slightly negative values in the vicinity of neighboring atoms. The main connecting point between both analysis schemes is the electrostatic energy. Both decomposition schemes utilize the same electrostatic energy expression, but differ in how fragment densities are defined. In the Mayer scheme, the electrostatic component originates from the interaction of the Mulliken densities, while in the Ziegler-Rauk scheme, the undisturbed fragment densities interact. The values of the electrostatic energy resulting from the two schemes differ significantly but typically have the same order of magnitude. Both methods are useful and complementary since Mayer's decomposition focuses on the energy of the finally formed molecule, whereas the Ziegler-Rauk scheme describes the bond formation starting from undeformed fragment densities

Treatment of advanced ovarian cancer with surgery, chemotherapy, and consolidation of response by whole-abdominal radiotherapy.

Between April 1981 and June 1985, 195 patients with ovarian cancer, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) Stages IIB, IIC, III, and IV, entered a trial that consisted of surgery and chemotherapy with cisplatin (P) and melphalan (PAM) with or without hexamethylmelamine (HexaPAMP or PAMP regimens) every 4 weeks for 6 cycles. Because the intent was to study the outcome by treatment after evaluation of first-line chemotherapy, patients were evaluable only if the response was assessed by a second-look operation or if measurable disease progression was documented. One hundred fifty-eight patients (81%) were evaluable for response. Forty-five (28%) achieved pathologically confirmed complete remissions (pCR), and 24 of these patients received whole-abdominal radiation (WAR) for consolidation of response. Five patients with complete remission after WAR relapsed, as did nine of the 21 with complete remission who had not undergone WAR. The 3-year time to progression percentage (TTP +/- SE) from second-look operation was 70% +/- 7% for all patients who achieved pCR, 83% +/- 8% for those who received WAR, and 49% +/- 15% for those who did not receive WAR (this was not a randomized comparison). The 3-year TTP percentage for the 49 partial responders was 21% +/- 6%, identical for the 19 who had WAR and the 30 who had no radiation therapy. Additional or alternative methods for consolidation of pCR are needed since patients continue to relapse despite optimal initial response to therapy.

Pseudophakic Retinal Detachment Surgery by 23 G Vitrectomy using Slit-Lamp and Non-Contact 90 D Lens.

Background: The purpose of this study is to report the anatomic and functional results of primary 23 G vitrectomy using slit-lamp and non-contact 90 D lens for the treatment of pseudophakic rhegmatogenous retinal detachment. Patients and Methods: Pseudophakic eyes were operated by 23 G vitrectomy using slit-lamp and non-contact 90 D lens, internal subretinal fluid drainage, cryopexy and internal gas tamponade. The preoperative and postoperative characteristics were analysed. Main outcome measures were anatomic success rates after initial surgical intervention and after reoperation for primary failures, visual outcome at the last follow-up visit, and complications. Results: 46 pseudophakic eyes were included in this retrospective study (October 2013- January 2014). In 40 cases, sulfur hexafluoride 23 % gastamponade was used, silicone oil in 6 cases (13 %). The retina was reattached successfully after a single surgery in 44 eyes (96 %). Recurrence of retinal detachment occurred in 2 eyes. Final anatomic reattachment was obtained in 100 % after a second operation. Silicone oil was removed in all eyes. Visual acuity improved significantly from logMAR 0 (IQR 0 - 0.9) to logMAR 0 (IQR 0 - 0.2) (p < 0.005). Conclusions: Primary 23 G vitrectomy using slit-lamp and non contact 90 D lens for the treatment of pseudophakic rhegmatogenous retinal detachment provides a high anatomic and functional success rate and is associated with few complications.

Simulation methods with extended stability for stiff biochemical kinetics

Background: With increasing computer power, simulating the dynamics of complex systems in chemistry and biology is becoming increasingly routine. The modelling of individual reactions in (bio)chemical systems involves a large number of random events that can be simulated by the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The key quantity is the step size, or waiting time, τ, whose value inversely depends on the size of the propensities of the different channel reactions and which needs to be re-evaluated after every firing event. Such a discrete event simulation may be extremely expensive, in particular for stiff systems where τ can be very short due to the fast kinetics of some of the channel reactions. Several alternative methods have been put forward to increase the integration step size. The so-called τ-leap approach takes a larger step size by allowing all the reactions to fire, from a Poisson or Binomial distribution, within that step. Although the expected value for the different species in the reactive system is maintained with respect to more precise methods, the variance at steady state can suffer from large errors as τ grows. Results: In this paper we extend Poisson τ-leap methods to a general class of Runge-Kutta (RK) τ-leap methods. We show that with the proper selection of the coefficients, the variance of the extended τ-leap can be well-behaved, leading to significantly larger step sizes.Conclusions: The benefit of adapting the extended method to the use of RK frameworks is clear in terms of speed of calculation, as the number of evaluations of the Poisson distribution is still one set per time step, as in the original τ-leap method. The approach paves the way to explore new multiscale methods to simulate (bio)chemical systems.