Analysis of damage to buildings following the 2010–11 Eastern Australia floods

This research analyses the extent of damage to buildings in Brisbane, Ipswich and Grantham during the recent Eastern Australia flooding and explore the role planning and design/construction regulations played in these failures. It highlights weaknesses in the current systems and propose effective solutions to mitigate future damage and financial loss under current or future climates. 2010 and early 2011 saw major flooding throughout much of Eastern Australia. Queensland and Victoria were particularly hard hit, with insured losses in these states reaching $2.5 billion and many thousands of homes inundated. The Queensland cities of Brisbane and Ipswich were the worst affected; around two-thirds of all inundated property/buildings were in these two areas. Other local government areas to record high levels of inundation were Central Highlands and Rockhampton Regional Councils in Queensland, and Buloke, Campaspe, Central Gold Fields and Loddon in Victoria. Flash flooding was a problem in a number of Victorian councils, but the Lockyer Valley west of Ipswich suffered the most extensive damage with 19 lives lost and more than 100 homes completely destroyed. In all more than 28,000 properties were inundated in Queensland and around 2,500 buildings affected in Victoria. Of the residential properties affected in Brisbane, around 90% were in areas developed prior to the introduction of floodplain development controls, with many also suffering inundation during the 1974 floods. The project developed a predictive model for estimating flood loss and occupant displacement. This model can now be used for flood risk assessments or rapid assessment of impacts following a flood event.

Periprosthetic fracture torque for short versus standard cemented hip stems : an experimental in vitro study

In an attempt to preserve proximal femoral bone stock and achieve a better fit in smaller femora, especially in the Asian population, several new shorter stem designs have become available. We investigated the torque to periprosthetic femoral fracture of the Exeter short stem compared with the conventional length Exeter stem in a Sawbone model. 42 stems; 21 shorter and 21 conventional stems both with three different offsets were cemented in a composite Sawbone model and torqued to fracture. Results showed that Sawbone femurs break at a statistically significantly lower torque to failure with a shorter compared to conventional length Exeter stem of the same offset. Both standard and short stem designs are safe to use as the torque to failure is 7-10 times that seen in activities of daily living.

The effects of flexible fixation on early stage bone fracture healing

The mechanical microenvironment at a fracture site could potentially influence the outcomes of bone fracture healing. It is known that, should the fixation construct be too stiff, or the gap between the fracture ends be too large, bones are less likely to heal. Flexible fixation or so-called “biological fixation” has been shown to encourage the formation of fracture callus, and therefore result in better healing outcomes. However, till date the nature of the relationship between the degree of mechanical stability provided by a flexible fixation and optimal healing fracture healing outcomes has not been fully understood. This paper presents a computational model that can predict healing out-comes from early stage healing data under various fixation configurations. The results of the simulations demonstrate that the change of mechanical microenvironment of fracture site resulting from the different fixation configurations is of importance for the healing outcomes.

Effect of crack depth and specimen width on fracture toughness of a carbon steel in the ductile-brittle transition region

The effects of crack depth (a/W) and specimen width W on the fracture toughness and ductile±brittle transition have been investigated using three-point bend specimens. Finite element analysis is employed to obtain the stress-strain fields ahead of the crack tip. The results show that both normalized crack depth (a/W) and specimen width (W) affect the fracture toughness and ductile±brittle fracture transition. The measured crack tip opening displacement decreases and ductile±brittle transition occurs with increasing crack depth (a/W) from 0.1 to 0.2 and 0.3. At a fixed a/W (0.2 or 0.3), all specimens fail by cleavage prior to ductile tearing when specimen width W increases from 25 to 40 and 50 mm. The lower bound fracture toughness is not sensitive to crack depth and specimen width. Finite element analysis shows that the opening stress in the remaining ligament is elevated with increasing crack depth or specimen width due to the increase of in-plane constraint. The average local cleavage stress is dependent on both crack depth and specimen width but its lower bound value is not sensitive to constraint level. No fixed distance can be found from the cleavage initiation site to the crack tip and this distance increases gradually with decreasing inplane constraint.

The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha—a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0–3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10–25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0–2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%–8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%–7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

Numerical investigation on stable crack growth in plane stress

Large deformation finite element analysis has been carried out to investigate the stress-strain fields ahead of a growing crack for compact tension .a=W D 0:5/ and three-point bend .a=W D 0:1 and 0:5/ specimens under plane stress condition. The crack growth is controlled by the experimental J -integral resistance curves measured by Sun et al. The results indicate that the distributions of opening stress, equivalent stress and equivalent strain ahead of a growing crack are not sensitive to specimen geometry. For both stationary and growing cracks, similar distributions of opening stress and triaxiality can be found along the ligament. During stable crack growth, the crack-tip opening displacement (CTOD) resistance curve and the cohesive fracture energy in the fracture process zone are independent of specimen geometry and may be suitable criteria for characterizing stable crack growth in plane stress.

Effect of constraint on ductile crack growth and ductile-brittle fracture transition of a carbon steel

Ductile-brittle fracture transition was investigated using compact tension (CT) specimens from -70oC to 40oC for a carbon steel. Large deformation finite element analysis has been carried out to simulate the stable crack growth in the compact tension (CT, a/W=0.6), three point-point bend (SE(B), a/W=0.1) and centre-cracked tension (M(T), a/W=0.5) specimens. Experimental crack tip opening displacement (CTOD) resistance curve was employed as the crack growth criterion. Ductile tearing is sensitive to constraint and tearing modulus increases with reduced constraint level. The finite element analysis shows that path-dependence of J-integral occurs from the very beginning of crack growth and ductile crack growth elevates the opening stress on the remaining ligament. Cleavage may occur after some ductile crack growth due to the increase of opening stress. For both stationary and growing cracks, the magnitude of opening stress increases with increasing in-plane constraint. The ductile-brittle transition takes place when the opening stress ahead of the crack tip reaches the local cleavage stress as the in-plane constraint of the specimen increases.

Development and application of a predictive model of freshwater fish assemblage composition to evaluate river health in eastern Australia

Multivariate predictive models are widely used tools for assessment of aquatic ecosystem health and models have been successfully developed for the prediction and assessment of aquatic macroinvertebrates, diatoms, local stream habitat features and fish. We evaluated the ability of a modelling method based on the River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) to accurately predict freshwater fish assemblage composition and assess aquatic ecosystem health in rivers and streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. The predictive model was developed, validated and tested in a region of comparatively high environmental variability due to the unpredictable nature of rainfall and river discharge. The model was concluded to provide sufficiently accurate and precise predictions of species composition and was sensitive enough to distinguish test sites impacted by several common types of human disturbance (particularly impacts associated with catchment land use and associated local riparian, in-stream habitat and water quality degradation). The total number of fish species available for prediction was low in comparison to similar applications of multivariate predictive models based on other indicator groups, yet the accuracy and precision of our model was comparable to outcomes from such studies. In addition, our model developed for sites sampled on one occasion and in one season only (winter), was able to accurately predict fish assemblage composition at sites sampled during other seasons and years, provided that they were not subject to unusually extreme environmental conditions (e.g. extended periods of low flow that restricted fish movement or resulted in habitat desiccation and local fish extinctions).

Pleistocene climate fluctuations influence phylogeographical patterns in Melomys cervinipes across the mesic forests of eastern Australia

Aim Our aim was to clarify the lineage-level relationships for Melomys cervinipes and its close relatives and investigate whether the patterns of divergence observed for these wet-forest-restricted mammals may be associated with recognized biogeographical barriers. Location Mesic closed forest along the east coast of Australia, from north Queensland to mid-eastern New South Wales. Methods To enable rigorous phylogenetic reconstruction, divergence-date estimation and phylogeographical inference, we analysed DNA sequence and microsatellite data from 307 specimens across the complete distribution of M. cervinipes (45 localities). Results Three divergent genetic lineages were found within M. cervinipes, corresponding to geographically delineated northern, central and southern clades. Additionally, a fourth lineage, comprising M. rubicola and M. capensis, was identified and was most closely related to the northern M. cervinipes lineage. Secondary contact of the northern and central lineages was identified at one locality to the north of the Burdekin Gap. Main conclusions Contemporary processes of repeated habitat fragmentation and contraction, local extinction events and subsequent re-expansion across both small and large areas, coupled with the historical influence of the Brisbane Valley Barrier, the St Lawrence Gap and the Burdekin Gap, have contributed to the present phylogeographical structure within M. cervinipes. Our study highlights the need to sample close to the periphery of putative biogeographical barriers or risk missing vital phylogeographical information that may significantly alter the interpretation of biogeographical hypotheses.

Cybercrime attribution : an Eastern European case study

Phishing and related cybercrime is responsible for billions of dollars in losses annually. Gartner reported more than 5 million U.S. consumers lost money to phishing attacks in the 12 months ending in September 2008 (Gartner 2009). This paper asks whether the majority of organised phishing and related cybercrime originates in Eastern Europe rather than elsewhere such as China or the USA. The Russian “Mafiya” in particular has been popularised by the media and entertainment industries to the point where it can be hard to separate fact from fiction but we have endeavoured to look critically at the information available on this area to produce a survey. We take a particular focus on cybercrime from an Australian perspective, as Australia was one of the first places where Phishing attacks against Internet banks were seen. It is suspected these attacks came from Ukrainian spammers. The survey is built from case studies both where individuals from Eastern Europe have been charged with related crimes or unsolved cases where there is some nexus to Eastern Europe. It also uses some earlier work done looking at those early Phishing attacks, archival analysis of Phishing attacks in July 2006 and new work looking at correlation between the Corruption Perception Index, Internet penetration and tertiary education in Russia and the Ukraine. The value of this work is to inform and educate those charged with responding to cybercrime where a large part of the problem originates and try to understand why.

Fracture load for short versus standard cemented hip stems : an experimental in vitro study

Introduction: In an attempt to reduce stress shielding in the proximal femur multiple new shorter stem design have become available. We investigated the load to fracture of a new polished tapered cemented short stem in comparison to the conventional polished tapered Exeter stem. Method: A total of forty-two stems, twenty-one short stems and twenty-one conventional stems both with three different offsets were cemented in a composite sawbone model and loaded to fracture. Results: study showed that femurs will break at a significantly lower load to failure with a shorter compared to conventional length Exeter stem. Conclusion: This Both standard and short stem design are safe to use as the torque to failure is 7–10 times as much as the torques seen in activities of daily living.

Investigating the effect of internal fixation stiffness on metaphyseal fracture healing in a mouse model

This project examined the differences in healing of metaphyseal bone, when the implants of variable stiffness are used for fracture fixation. This knowledge is important in development of novel orthopaedic implants, used in orthopaedic surgery to stabilise the fractures. Dr Koval used a mouse model to create a fracture, and then assessed its healing with a combination of mechanical testing, microcomputed tomography and histomorphometric examination.

Clinically-based automatic implant fitting for shape optimization of fracture fixation plates

Complex bone contour and anatomical variations between individual bones complicate the process of deriving an implant shape that fits majority of the population. This thesis proposes an automatic fitting method for anatomically-precontoured plates based on clinical requirements, and investigated if 100% anatomical fit for a group of bone is achievable through manual bending of one plate shape. It was found that, for the plate used, 100% fit is impossible to achieve through manual bending alone. Rather, newly-developed shapes are also required to obtain anatomical fit in areas with more complex bone contour.

Development and validation of the ankle fracture outcome of rehabilitation measure (A-FORM)

Study Design Delphi panel and cohort study. Objective To develop and refine a condition-specific, patient-reported outcome measure, the Ankle Fracture Outcome of Rehabilitation Measure (A-FORM), and to examine its psychometric properties, including factor structure, reliability, and validity, by assessing item fit with the Rasch model. Background To our knowledge, there is no patient-reported outcome measure specific to ankle fracture with a robust content foundation. Methods A 2-stage research design was implemented. First, a Delphi panel that included patients and health professionals developed the items and refined the item wording. Second, a cohort study (n = 45) with 2 assessment points was conducted to permit preliminary maximum-likelihood exploratory factor analysis and Rasch analysis. Results The Delphi panel reached consensus on 53 potential items that were carried forward to the cohort phase. From the 2 time points, 81 questionnaires were completed and analyzed; 38 potential items were eliminated on account of greater than 10% missing data, factor loadings, and uniqueness. The 15 unidimensional items retained in the scale demonstrated appropriate person and item reliability after (and before) removal of 1 item (anxious about footwear) that had a higher-than-ideal outfit statistic (1.75). The “anxious about footwear” item was retained in the instrument, but only the 14 items with acceptable infit and outfit statistics (range, 0.5–1.5) were included in the summary score. Conclusion This investigation developed and refined the A-FORM (Version 1.0). The A-FORM items demonstrated favorable psychometric properties and are suitable for conversion to a single summary score. Further studies utilizing the A-FORM instrument are warranted. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2014;44(7):488–499. Epub 22 May 2014. doi:10.2519/jospt.2014.4980