Biomarker distributions in sediment core PS2767-4

Here, we present a first (low-resolution) biomarker sea-ice proxy record from the High Arctic (southern Lomonosov Ridge), going back in time to about 60 ka (MIS 3 to MIS 1). Variable concentrations of the sea-ice diatom specific highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) with 25 carbon atoms ("IP25"), in combination with the phytoplankton biomarker brassicasterol, suggest variable seasonal sea-ice coverage and open-water productivity during MIS 3. During most of MIS 2, the spring to summer sea-ice margin significantly extended towards the south, resulting in a drastic decrease in phytoplankton productivity. During the Early Holocene Climate Optimum, brassicasterol reached its maximum, interpreted as signal for elevated phytoplankton productivity due to a significantly reduced sea-ice cover. During the mid-late Holocene, IP25 increased and brassicasterol decreased, indicating extended sea-ice cover and reduced phytoplankton productivity, respectively. The HBI diene/IP25 ratios probably reached maximum values during the Bølling-Allerød warm period and decreased during the Holocene, suggesting a correlation with sea-surface temperature.

Impact of salinity and growth phase on alkenone distributions in coastal haptophytes

Batch cultures of Isochrysis galbana (strain CCMP 1323) and Chrysotila lamellosa (strain CCMP 1307) were grown at salinity ca. 10 to ca. 35 and the alkenone distributions determined for different growth phases. UK'37 values decreased slightly with salinity for C. lamellosa but were largely unaffected for I. galbana except during the decline phase. The values decreased with incubation time in both species. The proportion of C37:4, used as proxy for salinity, increased in both species at 0.16-0.20% per salinity unit, except during the stationary phase for I. galbana. C37:4 was much more abundant in C. lamellosa (30-44%) than in I. galbana (4-12%). Although our results suggest that salinity has a direct effect on alkenone distributions, growth phase and species composition will also have a marked impact, complicating the use of alkenone distributions as a proxy for salinity in the marine environment.

Multivariate Appoximations to Portfolio Return Distribution

This article proposes a three-step procedure to estimate portfolio return distributions under the multivariate Gram-Charlier (MGC) distribution. The method combines quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation for conditional means and variances and the method of moments (MM) estimation for the rest of the density parameters, including the correlation coefficients. The procedure involves consistent estimates even under density misspecification and solves the so-called ‘curse of dimensionality’ of multivariate modelling. Furthermore, the use of a MGC distribution represents a flexible and general approximation to the true distribution of portfolio returns and accounts for all its empirical regularities. An application of such procedure is performed for a portfolio composed of three European indices as an illustration. The MM estimation of the MGC (MGC-MM) is compared with the traditional maximum likelihood of both the MGC and multivariate Student’s t (benchmark) densities. A simulation on Value-at-Risk (VaR) performance for an equally weighted portfolio at 1% and 5% confidence indicates that the MGC-MM method provides reasonable approximations to the true empirical VaR. Therefore, the procedure seems to be a useful tool for risk managers and practitioners.

Effects of a harmful algal bloom on the community ecology, movements and spatial distributions of fishes in a microtidal estuary

Harmful algal blooms can adversely affect fish communities, though their impacts are highly context-dependent and typically differ between fish species. Various approaches, comprising univariate and multivariate analyses and multimetric Fish Community Indices (FCI), were employed to characterise the perceived impacts of a Karlodinium veneficum bloom on the fish communities and ecological condition of the Swan Canning Estuary, Western Australia. The combined evidence suggests that a large proportion of the more mobile fish species in the offshore waters of the bloom-affected area relocated to other regions during the bloom. This was indicated by marked declines in mean species richness, catch rates and FCI scores in the bloom region but concomitant increases in these characteristics in more distal regions, and by pronounced and atypical shifts in the pattern of inter-regional similarities in fish community composition during the bloom. The lack of any significant changes among the nearshore fish communities revealed that bloom impacts were less severe there than in deeper, offshore waters. Nearshore habitats, which generally are in better ecological condition than adjacent offshore waters in this system, may provide refuges for fish during algal blooms and other perturbations, mirroring similar observations of fish avoidance responses to such stressors in estuaries worldwide.

Effects of a harmful algal bloom on the community ecology, movements and spatial distributions of fishes in a microtidal estuary

Harmful algal blooms can adversely affect fish communities, though their impacts are highly context-dependent and typically differ between fish species. Various approaches, comprising univariate and multivariate analyses and multimetric Fish Community Indices (FCI), were employed to characterise the perceived impacts of a Karlodinium veneficum bloom on the fish communities and ecological condition of the Swan Canning Estuary, Western Australia. The combined evidence suggests that a large proportion of the more mobile fish species in the offshore waters of the bloom-affected area relocated to other regions during the bloom. This was indicated by marked declines in mean species richness, catch rates and FCI scores in the bloom region but concomitant increases in these characteristics in more distal regions, and by pronounced and atypical shifts in the pattern of inter-regional similarities in fish community composition during the bloom. The lack of any significant changes among the nearshore fish communities revealed that bloom impacts were less severe there than in deeper, offshore waters. Nearshore habitats, which generally are in better ecological condition than adjacent offshore waters in this system, may provide refuges for fish during algal blooms and other perturbations, mirroring similar observations of fish avoidance responses to such stressors in estuaries worldwide.

Climate-driven shifts in species' distributions may exacerbate the impacts of storm disturbances on North-east Atlantic kelp forests

Physical disturbance through wave action is a major determinant of kelp forest structure. The North-east Atlantic storm season of 2013–14 was unusually severe; the south coast of the UK was subjected to 6 of the 12 most intense storms recorded in the past 5 years. Inshore significant wave heights and periods exceeded 7 m and 13 s with two storms classified as ‘1-in-30 year’ events. We examined the impacts of the storm season on kelp canopies at three study sites. Monospecific canopies comprising Laminaria hyperborea were unaffected by storm disturbance. However, at one study site a mixed canopy comprising Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima and L. hyperborea was significantly altered by the storms, due to decreased abundances of the former two species. Quantification of freshly severed stipes suggested that the ‘warm water’ kelp L. ochroleuca was more susceptible to storm damage than L. hyperborea. Overall, kelp canopies were highly resistant to storm disturbance because of the low vulnerability of L. hyperborea to intense wave action. However, if climate-driven shifts in kelp species distributions result in more mixed canopies, as predicted, then resistance to storm disturbance may be eroded.

Climate-driven shifts in species' distributions may exacerbate the impacts of storm disturbances on North-east Atlantic kelp forests

Physical disturbance through wave action is a major determinant of kelp forest structure. The North-east Atlantic storm season of 2013–14 was unusually severe; the south coast of the UK was subjected to 6 of the 12 most intense storms recorded in the past 5 years. Inshore significant wave heights and periods exceeded 7 m and 13 s with two storms classified as ‘1-in-30 year’ events. We examined the impacts of the storm season on kelp canopies at three study sites. Monospecific canopies comprising Laminaria hyperborea were unaffected by storm disturbance. However, at one study site a mixed canopy comprising Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima and L. hyperborea was significantly altered by the storms, due to decreased abundances of the former two species. Quantification of freshly severed stipes suggested that the ‘warm water’ kelp L. ochroleuca was more susceptible to storm damage than L. hyperborea. Overall, kelp canopies were highly resistant to storm disturbance because of the low vulnerability of L. hyperborea to intense wave action. However, if climate-driven shifts in kelp species distributions result in more mixed canopies, as predicted, then resistance to storm disturbance may be eroded.

Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas

European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years1. In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change2, 3. We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species4, 5, we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations.

Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas

European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years1. In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change2, 3. We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species4, 5, we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations.

Modelling responses to spatially fractionated radiation fields using preclinical image-guided radiotherapy

OBJECTIVES: Radiotherapy is planned to achieve the optimal physical dose distribution to the target tumour volume whilst minimising dose to the surrounding normal tissue. Recent in vitro experimental evidence has demonstrated an important role for intercellular communication in radiobiological responses following non-uniform exposures. This study aimed to model the impact of these effects in the context of techniques involving highly modulated radiation fields or spatially fractionated treatments such as GRID therapy.

METHODS: Using the small animal radiotherapy research platform (SARRP) as a key enabling technology to deliver precision imaged-guided radiotherapy, it is possible to achieve spatially modulated dose distributions that model typical clinical scenarios. In this work, we planned uniform and spatially fractionated dose distributions using multiple isocentres with beam sizes of 0.5 - 5 mm to obtain 50% volume coverage in a subcutaneous murine tumour model, and applied a model of cellular response that incorporates intercellular communication to assess the potential impact of signalling effects with different ranges.

RESULTS: Models of GRID treatment plans which incorporate intercellular signalling showed increased cell killing within the low dose region. This results in an increase in the Equivalent Uniform Dose (EUD) for GRID exposures compared to standard models, with some GRID exposures being predicted to be more effective than uniform delivery of the same physical dose.

CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the potential impact of radiation induced signalling on tumour cell response for spatially fractionated therapies and identifies key experiments to validate this model and quantify these effects in vivo.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: This study highlights the unique opportunities now possible using advanced preclinical techniques to develop a foundation for biophysical optimisation in radiotherapy treatment planning.

The effects of transients on photospheric and chromospheric power distributions

We have observed a quiet Sun region with the Swedish 1-meter Solar Telescope (SST) equipped with CRISP Imaging SpectroPolarimeter. High-resolution, high-cadence, H-alpha line scanning images were taken to observe different layers of the solar atmosphere from the photosphere to upper chromosphere. We study the distribution of power in different period-bands at different heights. Power maps of the upper photosphere and the lower chromosphere show suppressed power surrounding the magnetic-network elements, known as "magnetic shadows". These also show enhanced power close to the photosphere, traditionally referred to as"power halos". The interaction between acoustic waves and inclined magnetic fields is generally believed to be responsible for these two effects. In this study we explore if small-scale transients can influence the distribution of power at different heights. We show that the presence of transients, like mottles, Rapid Blueshifted Excursions (RBEs) and Rapid Redshifted Excursions (RREs), can strongly influence the power-maps. The short and finite lifetime of these events strongly affects all powermaps, potentially influencing the observed power distribution. We show that Doppler-shifted transients like RBEs and RREs that occur ubiquitously, can have a dominant effect on the formation ofthe power halos in the quiet Sun. For magnetic shadows, transients like mottles do not seem to have a significant effect in the power suppression around 3 minutes and wave interaction may play a key role here. Our high cadence observations reveal that flows, waves and shocks manifest in presence of magnetic fields to form a non-linear magnetohydrodynamic system.