Swapping space for time and unfair tests of ecological models

Testing ecological models for management is an increasingly important part of the maturation of ecology as an applied science. Consequently, we need to work at applying fair tests of models with adequate data. We demonstrate that a recent test of a discrete time, stochastic model was biased towards falsifying the predictions. If the model was a perfect description of reality, the test falsified the predictions 84% of the time. We introduce an alternative testing procedure for stochastic models, and show that it falsifies the predictions only 5% of the time when the model is a perfect description of reality. The example is used as a point of departure to discuss some of the philosophical aspects of model testing.

Feed intake and liveweight responses to nitrogen and/or protein supplements by steers of Bos taurus, Bos indicus and Bos taurus x Bos indicus breed types offered a low quality grass hay

Thirty steers were used in two pen experiments (Expts 1 and 2). and 27 of these in a third (Expt 3), to quantify their responses of hay intake, rumen ammonia nitrogen (RAN) concentrations, and liveweight to inputs of rumen soluble nitrogen (urea) and rumen undegradable protein (formaldehyde-treated casein; F-casein) when added to a basal diet of low quality hays. The hays were made From unimproved native pastures typical of those grazed by cattle in the subtropics of Australia and contained 7.8 g N/kg dry matter (DM) with coefficient of organic matter digestibility of 0.503 in Expts 1 and 2, and 5.2 g N/kg DM with a digestibility range from 0.385 to 0.448 in Expt 3. The steers (15 months old) were either Brahman (B), Hereford (H) or the F-1 Brahman x Hereford (BH) cross. Steers were offered supplementary minerals with the hays in each experiment. In Expt 1 (35 days) urea was sprayed on part of the hay, allowing for daily urea intakes (g/steer) of either 0, 5, 11, 16 or 26. In Expt 2 (42 days), F-casein was offered daily (g/steer) at either 0, 75, 150, 225 or 300 and in Expt 3 (56 days) discrete offerings were made of soluble casein (225 g/day), of urea (18 g/day) + F-casein (225 g/day) or of nil. There were significant linear effects of urea intake upon hay intake and liveweight change of steers. However, B steers had smaller increases in intake and liveweight change than did H steers, and B steers did not have a linear increase in RAN concentrations with increasing urea intake as did H and SH steers. In Expt 2 there were significant linear effects of F-casein supplements on hay intake and liveweight change of steers and a significant improvement in their feed conversion ratio (i.e. DM intake:liveweight change). The B steers did not differ from H and BH steers in liveweight change but had significantly lower hay intakes and non-significantly smaller increases in RAN with increasing F-casein intake. In Expt 3, hay intake of the steers increased with soluble casein (by 16.8 %) and with urea + F-casein (24.5 %). Only steers given urea + F-casein had a high RAN concentration (94 mg/l) and a high liveweight gain. The B steers had a liveweight loss and a lower hay intake than H or BH steers in Expt 3 but a higher RAN concentration. These studies have indicated the importance of the form and quantity of additional N required by cattle of differing breed types to optimize their feed intake and liveweight gain when offered low-N, low-digestible hays.

Determination of activation energy distributions for chemisorption of oxygen on carbon: an improved approach

The present paper proposes an approach to obtaining the activation energy distribution for chemisorption of oxygen onto carbon surfaces, while simultaneously allowing for the activation energy dependence of the pre-exponential factor of the rate constant. Prior studies in this area have considered this factor to be uniform, thereby biasing estimated distributions. The results show that the derived activation energy distribution is not sensitive to the chemisorption mechanism because of the step function like property of the coverage. The activation energy distribution is essentially uniform for some carbons, and has two or possibly more discrete stages, suggestive of at least two types of sites, each with its own uniform distribution. The pre-exponential factors of the reactions are determined directly from the experimental data, and are found not to be constant as assumed in earlier work, but correlated with the activation energy. The latter results empirically follow an exponential function, supporting some earlier statistical and experimental work. The activation energy distribution obtained in the present paper permits improved correlation of chemisorption data in comparison to earlier studies. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hybrid modelling of coupled pore fluid-solid deformation problems

A hybrid formulation for coupled pore fluid-solid deformation problems is proposed. The scheme is a hybrid in the sense that we use a vertex centered finite volume formulation for the analysis of the pore fluid and a particle method for the solid in our model. The pore fluid formally occupies the same space as the solid particles. The size of the particles is not necessarily equal to the physical size of materials. A finite volume mesh for the pore fluid flow is generated by Delaunay triangulation. Each triangle possesses an initial porosity. Changes of the porosity are specified by the translations of the mass centers of particles. Net pore pressure gradients are applied to the particle centers and are considered in the particle momentum balance. The potential of our model is illustrated by means of a simulation of coupled fracture and fluid flow developed in porous rock under biaxial compression condition.

Extensive chromosomal variation associated with taxon divergence and host specificity in the gall-inducing scale insect Apiomorpha munita (Schrader) (Hemiptera : Sternorrhyncha : Coccoidea : Eriococcidae)

Apiomorpha Rubsaamen (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Eriococcidae) is one of the most chromosomally diverse of all animal genera. There is extensive karyotypic variation within many of the morphologically defined species, including A. munita (Schrader) which is here reported to have diploid chromosome counts ranging from 6 to more than 100. Each of the three morphologically defined subspecies of A. munita also displays considerable chromosomal variation: A. m. tereticornuta Gullan (2n =6, 8, 20, 22 or 24), A. m. malleensis Gullan (2n =6, 20, 22, 24 or 26), and A. m. munita (Schrader) (2n=54 or >100). Apiomorpha munita appears to occur only on eucalypts of the informal subgenus Symphyomyrtus, with each of the subspecies of A. munita restricted to discrete symphyomyrt sections. Several different karyotypic forms within each subspecies of A. munita appear to be restricted to only one or a few eucalypt species or series. The association between apparent host specificity and chromosomal rearrangements in A. munita suggests that both may be playing an active role in taxon divergence in Apiomorpha. (C) 2001 The Linnean Society of London.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic algorithms for design of liquid retaining structure

In this paper, genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to the optimum design of reinforced concrete liquid retaining structures, which comprise three discrete design variables, including slab thickness, reinforcement diameter and reinforcement spacing. GA, being a search technique based on the mechanics of natural genetics, couples a Darwinian survival-of-the-fittest principle with a random yet structured information exchange amongst a population of artificial chromosomes. As a first step, a penalty-based strategy is entailed to transform the constrained design problem into an unconstrained problem, which is appropriate for GA application. A numerical example is then used to demonstrate strength and capability of the GA in this domain problem. It is shown that, only after the exploration of a minute portion of the search space, near-optimal solutions are obtained at an extremely converging speed. The method can be extended to application of even more complex optimization problems in other domains.

The incidence of schizophrenia: A systematic review

There has been a debate on whether or not the incidence of schizophrenia varies across time and place. In order to optimise the evidence upon which this debate is based, we have undertaken a systematicsystematic review of the literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the methods of the review and a preliminary analysis of the studies identified to date. Electronic databases (Medline, Psychlnfo, Embase, LILAC) were systematically searched for articles published between January 1965 and December 2001. The search terms were: (schizo* OR psycho*)AND (incidence OR prevalence). References were also identified from review articles, reference list and by writing to authors. To date we have identified 137 papers drawn from 33 nations. 37 papers in language other than English await translation. The currently included papers have generated 1413 different items of rate information data. In order to analyze these data we have undertaken several sequential filters in order to identify (a) non-overlapping data, (b) birth cohort study versus noncohort studies, (c) overall and sex-specific rates, (d) diagnostic criteria, (e) age ranges, (f) epoch of study, and (g) data on migrant or other special interest groups. In addition, we will examine the impact of urbanicity of site, age and/or sex standardization, and quality score on the incidence rates. The various discrete incidence rates will be presented graphically and the impact of various filters on these rates will be inspected using meta-analytic techniques. The use of meta-analysis may help elucidate the epidemiological landscape with respect to the incidence of schizophrenia and aid in the generation of new hypothesis. Acknowledgements: The Stanley Medical Research Institute supported project

Group theory and quasiprobability integrals of Wigner functions

The integral of the Wigner function of a quantum-mechanical system over a region or its boundary in the classical phase plane, is called a quasiprobability integral. Unlike a true probability integral, its value may lie outside the interval [0, 1]. It is characterized by a corresponding selfadjoint operator, to be called a region or contour operator as appropriate, which is determined by the characteristic function of that region or contour. The spectral problem is studied for commuting families of region and contour operators associated with concentric discs and circles of given radius a. Their respective eigenvalues are determined as functions of a, in terms of the Gauss-Laguerre polynomials. These polynomials provide a basis of vectors in a Hilbert space carrying the positive discrete series representation of the algebra su(1, 1) approximate to so(2, 1). The explicit relation between the spectra of operators associated with discs and circles with proportional radii, is given in terms of the discrete variable Meixner polynomials.

EDD, the human orthologue of the hyperplastic discs tumour suppressor gene, is amplified and overexpressed in cancer

EDD (E3 isolated by differential display), located at chromosome 8q22.3, is the human orthologue of the Drosophila melanogaster tumour suppressor gene 'hyperplastic discs' and encodes a HECT domain E3 ubiquitin protein-ligase. To investigate the possible involvement of EDD in human cancer, several cancers from diverse tissue sites were analysed for allelic gain or loss (allelic imbalance, AI) at the EDD locus using an EDD-specific microsatellite, CEDD, and other polymorphic microsatellites mapped in the vicinity of the 8q22.3 locus. Of 143 cancers studied, 38 had AI at CEDD (42% of 90 informative cases). In 14 of these cases, discrete regions of imbalance encompassing 8q22.3 were present, while the remainder had more extensive 8q aberrations. AI of CEDD was most frequent in ovarian cancer (22/47 informative cases, 47%), particularly in the serous subtype (16/22, 73%), but was rare in benign and borderline ovarian tumours. AI was also common in breast cancer (31%), hepatocellular carcinoma (46%), squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue (50%) and metastatic melanoma (18%). AI is likely to represent amplification of the EDD gene locus rather than loss of heterozygosity, as quantitative RT-PCR and immunohistochemistry showed that EDD mRNA and protein are frequently overexpressed in breast and ovarian cancers, while among breast cancer cell lines EDD overexpression and increased gene copy number were correlated. These results demonstrate that AI at the EDD locus is common in a diversity of carcinomas and that the EDD gene is frequently overexpressed in breast and ovarian cancer, implying a potential role in cancer progression.

Phylogeny and evolution of anomalous roots in Daviesia (Fabaceae : Mirbelieae)

The phylogeny of the Australian legume genus Daviesia was estimated using sequences of the internal transcribed spacers of nuclear ribosomal DNA. Partial congruence was found with previous analyses using morphology, including strong support for monophyly of the genus and for a sister group relationship between the clade D. pachyloma and the rest of the genus. A previously unplaced bird-pollinated species, anceps + D. D. epiphyllum, was well supported as sister to the only other bird-pollinated species in the genus, D. speciosa, indicating a single origin of bird pollination in their common ancestor. Other morphological groups within Daviesia were not supported and require reassessment. A strong and previously unreported sister clade of Daviesia consists of the two monotypic genera Erichsenia and Viminaria. These share phyllode-like leaves and indehiscent fruits. The evolutionary history of cord roots, which have anomalous secondary thickening, was explored using parsimony. Cord roots are limited to three separate clades but have a complex history involving a small number of gains (most likely 0-3) and losses (0-5). The anomalous structure of cord roots ( adventitious vascular strands embedded in a parenchymatous matrix) may facilitate nutrient storage, and the roots may be contractile. Both functions may be related to a postfire resprouting adaptation. Alternatively, cord roots may be an adaptation to the low-nutrient lateritic soils of Western Australia. However, tests for association between root type, soil type, and growth habit were equivocal, depending on whether the variables were treated as phylogenetically dependent (insignificant) or independent ( significant).

Flex cars and the alcohol price

We build a model that incorporates the effect of the innovative ""flex"" car, an automobile that is able to run with either gasoline or alcohol, on the dynamics of fuel prices in Brazil. Our model shows that differences regarding fuel prices will now depend on the proportions of alcohol, gasoline and flex cars in the total stock. Conversely, the demand for each type of car will also depend on the expected future prices of alcohol and gasoline (in addition to the car prices). The model reflects our findings that energy prices are tied in the long run and that causality runs stronger from gasoline to alcohol. The estimated error correction parameter is stable, implying that the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium remains unchanged. The latter result is probably due to a still small fraction of flex cars in the total stock (approx. 5%), despite the fact that its sales nearly reached 100% in 2006. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-diagonal solutions of the reflection equation for the trigonometric A((1)) (n-1) vertex model

We obtain a class of non-diagonal solutions of the reflection equation for the trigonometric A(n-1)((1)) vertex model. The solutions can be expressed in terms of intertwinner matrix and its inverse, which intertwine two trigonometric R-matrices. In addition to a discrete (positive integer) parameter l, 1 less than or equal to l less than or equal to n, the solution contains n + 2 continuous boundary parameters.

Asymptotic behaviour of two-dimensional time-delayed Navier-Stokes equations

We consider the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations with a time-delayed convective term and a forcing term which contains some hereditary features. Some results on existence and uniqueness of solutions are established. We discuss the asymptotic behaviour of solutions and we also show the exponential stability of stationary solutions.

C(alpha)-HOLDER CLASSICAL SOLUTIONS FOR NON-AUTONOMOUS NEUTRAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

In this paper we discuss the existence of alpha-Holder classical solutions for non-autonomous abstract partial neutral functional differential equations. An application is considered.