FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Local Understandings of Soil Fertility, Rainfall and Conservation Agriculture in Laikipia, Kenya: A Qualitative Analysis.

Conservation Agriculture (CA) is mostly referred to in the literature as having three principles at the core of its identity: minimum soil disturbance, permanent organic soil cover and crop diversity. This farming package has been described as suitable to improve yields and livelihoods of smallholders in semi-arid regions of Kenya, which since the colonial period have been heavily subjected to tillage. Our study is based on a qualitative approach that followed local meanings and understandings of soil fertility, rainfall and CA in Ethi and Umande located in the semi-arid region of Laikipia, Kenya. Farm visits, 53 semistructured interviews, informal talks were carried out from April to June 2015. Ethi and Umande locations were part of a resettlement programme after the independence of Kenya that joined together people coming from different farming contexts. Since the 1970–80s, state and NGOs have been promoting several approaches to control erosion and boost soil fertility. In this context, CA has also been promoted preferentially since 2007. Interviewees were well acquainted with soil erosion and the methods to control it. Today, rainfall amount and distribution are identified as major constraints to crop performance. Soil fertility is understood as being under control since farmers use several methods to boost it (inorganic fertilisers, manure, terraces, agroforestry, vegetation barriers). CA is recognised to deliver better yields but it is not able to perform well under severe drought and does not provide yields as high as ‘promised’ in promotion campaigns. Moreover, CA is mainly understood as “cultivating with chemicals”, “kulima na dawa”, in kiswahili. A dominant view is that CA is about minimum tillage and use of pre-emergence herbicides. It is relevant to reflect about what kind of CA is being promoted and if elements like soil cover and crop rotation are given due attention. CA based on these two ideas, minimum tillage and use of herbicides, is hard to stand as a programme to be promoted and up-scaled. Therefore CA appears not to be recognised as a convincing approach to improve the livelihoods in Laikipia.

Role of entomopathogenic fungi in the control of Tetranychus evansi and Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Tetranychidae), pests of horticultural crops

The spider mites Tetranychus urticae Koch and Tetranychus evansi Baker and Pritchard are important pests of horticultural crops. They are infected by entomopathogenic fungi naturally or experimentally. Fungal pathogens known to cause high infection in spider mite populations belong to the order Entomophthorales and include Neozygites spp. Studies are being carried out to develop some of these fungi as mycoacaricides, as standalone control measures in an inundative strategy to replace the synthetic acaricides currently in use or as a component of integrated mite management. Although emphasis has been put on inundative releases, entomopathogenic fungi can also be used in classical, conservation and augmentative biological control. Permanent establishment of an exotic agent in a new area of introduction may be possible in the case of spider mites. Conservation biological control can be achieved by identifying strategies to promote any natural enemies already present within crop ecosystems, based on a thorough understanding of their biology, ecology and behaviour. Further research should focus on development of efficient mass production systems, formulation, and delivery systems of fungal pathogens.

Nature-based tourism and the valuation of its environmental resources: Economic and other aspects

Nature-based tourism has grown in importance in recent decades, and strong links have been established between it and ecotourism. This reflects rising incomes, greater levels of educational attainment and changing values, especially in the Western world. Nature-based tourism is quite varied. Different types of such tourism are identified and their consequences for sustainability of their resource-base are briefly considered. The development and management of nature-based tourism involves many economic aspects, several of which are discussed. For example, one must consider the economics of reserving or protecting land for this type of tourism. What economic factors should be taken into account? Economists stress the importance of taking into account the opportunity costs involved in such a decision. This concept is explained. However, determining the net economic value of an area used for tourism is not straightforward. Techniques for doing this, such as the travel cost method and stated value methods, are introduced. Natural areas reserved for tourism may have economic value not only for tourism but also jointly for other purposes, such as conserving wildlife, maintaining hydrological cycles and so on. These other purposes, should be taken into account when considering the use of land for nature-based tourism. According to one economic point of view, land should be used in a way that maximises its total economic value. While this approach has its merits, it does not take into account the distribution of benefits from land use and its local impacts on income and employment. These can be quite important politically and for nature conservation, and are discussed. Finally, there is some discussion of whether fees charged to tourists for access to environmental resources should discriminate between domestic tourists and foreigners.

Knowledge and willingness to pay for the conservation of wildlife species: Experimental results evaluating Australian tropical species

The nature of an experiment involving 204 residents is outlined and the results are reported and analysed. Two consecutive surveys of the respondents provide data about their stated knowledge of 23 wildlife species present in tropical Australia, most of which exclusively occur there. In addition, these surveys provide data about the willingness of respondents to pay for the conservation of those species belonging to three taxa; reptiles, mammals, and birds. Thus it is possible to compare the respondents’ stated knowledge of the species with their willingness to pay for their conservation, and to draw relevant inferences from this. From the initial survey and these associations, interesting relationships can be observed between those variables (knowledge and willingness to pay). The second survey was completed after the respondents’ knowledge of the species was experimentally increased and became more balanced. This is shown to result in increased dispersion (greater discrimination) in willingness to contribute to conservation of the different species in the set of wildlife species considered. Both theoretical and policy conclusions are drawn from the results.

Are a health advocacy diary and health assessment welcomed by those who use them?

Aim: To determine acceptability of a health advocacy intervention, the Ask Diary and the comprehensive health assessment program (CHAP). Method: We performed a two by two designed randomised controlled trial of the Ask Diary and the CHAP tool in  adults with intellectual disability. Results of interviews of self-advocates and caregiver advocates, both families and paid carers, will be presented. Results: The interviews found strong support for the Ask Diary and the CHAP tool among selfadvocates and family caregivers. There was clear indication that the Ask Diary improved advocacy, aided in the organisation of health matters and was easy to use. It was reported that the health assessment resulted in benefits for the person’s health and high acceptability by carers. There was less support for the interventions where the person was supported through government services. Conclusions: Self-advocates and family caregivers welcome and use a personalised health advocacy diary and also a health assessment. However paid carers used the diary less but were supportive of the health assessment.

An evaluation of the evidence for linkages between mangroves and fisheries: A synthesis of the literature and identification of research directions

There is a widely held paradigm that mangroves are critical for sustaining production in coastal fisheries through their role as important nursery areas for fisheries species. This paradigm frequently forms the basis for important management decisions on habitat conservation and restoration of mangroves and other coastal wetlands. This paper reviews the current status of the paradigm and synthesises the information on the processes underlying these potential links. In the past, the paradigm has been supported by studies identifying correlations between the areal and linear extent of mangroves and fisheries catch. This paper goes beyond the correlative approach to develop a new framework on which future evaluations can be based. First, the review identifies what type of marine animals are using mangroves and at what life stages. These species can be categorised as estuarine residents, marine-estuarine species and marine stragglers. The marine-estuarine category includes many commercial species that use mangrove habitats as nurseries. The second stage is to determine why these species are using mangroves as nurseries. The three main proposals are that mangroves provide a refuge from predators, high levels of nutrients and shelter from physical disturbances. The recognition of the important attributes of mangrove nurseries then allows an evaluation of how changes in mangroves will affect the associated fauna. Surprisingly few studies have addressed this question. Consequently, it is difficult to predict how changes in any of these mangrove attributes would affect the faunal communities within them and, ultimately, influence the fisheries associated with them. From the information available, it seems likely that reductions in mangrove habitat complexity would reduce the biodiversity and abundance of the associated fauna, and these changes have the potential to cause cascading effects at higher trophic levels with possible consequences for fisheries. Finally, there is a discussion of the data that are currently available on mangrove distribution and fisheries catch, the limitations of these data and how best to use the data to understand mangrove-fisheries links and, ultimately, to optimise habitat and fisheries management. Examples are drawn from two relatively data-rich regions, Moreton Bay (Australia) and Western Peninsular Malaysia, to illustrate the data needs and research requirements for investigating the mangrove-fisheries paradigm. Having reliable and accurate data at appropriate spatial and temporal scales is crucial for mangrove-fisheries investigations. Recommendations are made for improvements to data collection methods that would meet these important criteria. This review provides a framework on which to base future investigations of mangrove-fisheries links, based on an understanding of the underlying processes and the need for rigorous data collection. Without this information, the understanding of the relationship between mangroves and fisheries will remain limited. Future investigations of mangrove-fisheries links must take this into account in order to have a good ecological basis and to provide better information and understanding to both fisheries and conservation managers.

Contributions of Non-consumptive Wildlife Tourism to Conservation

Wildlife tourism has the potential to contribute to conservation through a variety of mechanisms. This chapter presents a preliminary assessment of the extent to which this potential is currently being realised, comparing tourism based on viewing of animals in captive settings (with a focus on federated zoos) with that in free-ranging situations (wildlife watching). The key mechanisms involved are: direct wildlife management and research; use of income derived from wildlife tourism to fund conservation; education of visitors to behave in a more conservation-friendly manner; political lobbying in support of conservation; and provision of a socio-economic incentive for conservation. All of these occur in at least some zoos and wildlife-watching situations, and collectively the contribution of non-consumptive wildlife tourism to conservation is significant, though impossible to quantify. The key strengths of the zoo sector in this regard are its inputs into captive breeding and its potential to educate large numbers of people. in contrast, wildlife watching provides significant socio-economic incentives for conservation of natural habitats. There seem to be significant opportunities for expanding the role of non-consumptive wildlife tourism in conservation.

Elephants and polity in ancient India as exemplified by Kautilya's Arthasastra (Science of Polity)

After providing some background on the domestication and use of elephants in ancient India, this article concentrates on the role of the elephant in Indian statescraft as outlined in Kautilya’s Arthasastra, reputed to have been written in the fourth century BC (over 2300 years ago). The body of this essay is presented as follows: first background on the nature of Kautilya’s Arthasastra is provided and then his advice is outlined and discussed about the care of elephants. This care involves the duty of the King, the duties of the superintendent of elephants and the law relating to the treatment of elephants. Subsequently, Kautilya’s views about the use of elephants in war are considered. The essay concludes with an overall assessment of the role of the elephant in the polity of ancient India as portrayed by Kautilya. It is argued that the high use value of elephants to ancient Indian rulers, especially in war, had a significant positive impact on the conservation of Asian wild elephants, and incidentally other wildlife in India as well. Today, the conservation of the Asian elephant depends mostly on its use for tourism and its non-use economic values which reflect human empathy with it and which are reinforced in India by social and cultural values.

Patch dynamics and metapopulation theory: the case of successional species

We present a mathematical framework that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of patch succession. We draw an analogy between the epidemiological categorization of individuals (infected, susceptible, latent and resistant) and the patch structure of a spatially heterogeneous landscape (occupied-suitable, empty-suitable, occupied-unsuitable and empty-unsuitable). This approach allows one to consider life-history attributes that influence persistence in patchy environments (e.g., longevity, colonization ability) in concert with extrinsic processes (e.g., disturbances, succession) that lead to spatial heterogeneity in patch suitability. It also allows the incorporation of seed banks and other dormant life forms, thus broadening patch occupancy dynamics to include sink habitats. We use the model to investigate how equilibrium patch occupancy is influenced by four critical parameters: colonization rate? extinction rate, disturbance frequency and the rate of habitat succession. This analysis leads to general predictions about how the temporal scaling of patch succession and extinction-colonization dynamics influences long-term persistence. We apply the model to herbaceous, early-successional species that inhabit open patches created by periodic disturbances. We predict the minimum disturbance frequency required far viable management of such species in the Florida scrub ecosystem. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Disease, habitat fragmentation and conservation

Habitat loss and the resultant fragmentation of remaining habitat is the primary cause of loss of biological diversity. How do these processes affect the dynamics of parasites and pathogens? Hess has provided some important insights into this problem using metapopulation models for pathogens that exhibit 'S-I' dynamics; for example, pathogens such as rabies in which the host population may be divided into susceptible and infected individuals. A major assumption of Hess's models is that infected patches become extinct, rather than recovering and becoming resistant to future infections. In this paper, we build upon this framework in two different ways: first, we examine the consequences of including patches that are resistant to infection; second, we examine the consequences of including a second species of host that can act as a reservoir for the pathogen. Both of these effects are likely to be important from a conservation perspective. The results of both sets of analysis indicate that the benefits of corridors and other connections that allow species to disperse through the landscape far outweigh the possible risks of increased pathogen transmission. Even in the commonest case, where harmful pathogens are maintained by a common reservoir host, increased landscape connectance still allows greater coexistence and persistence of a threatened or endangered host.