A cross-sectional study of reproductive performance of smallholder dairy cows in coastal Tanzania

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted on 200 randomly selected smallholder farms from a mixed dairy farming system in Tanga, Tanzania, between January and April 1999. We estimated the frequency and determinants of long calving interval (LCI), retention of fetal membrane (RFM), dystocia, and abortion in smallholder crossbred cattle and explored birth trends. The mean calving interval was 500 days and birth rate was 65 per 100 cow-years. Dystocia was reported to affect 58% of calvings, and 17.2% of animals suffered RFM. Using mixed effect models, the variables associated with LCI, RFM and dystocia were breed, level of exotic blood and condition score. Zebu breeding was associated with LCI (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3, p = 0.041) and Friesian breeding with lower odds for RF (OR = 0.26, p = 0.020). Animals with higher levels of exotic blood had lower odds for evidence of dystocia (OR = 0.45, p = 0.021). Evidence of dystocia was significantly associated with poor condition score (beta = -1.10, p = 0.001). Our observations suggest that LCIs are common in smallholder dairy farms in this region and a likely source of economic loss. Dystocia, RFM, poor condition score and mineral deficiency were common problems and were possibly linked to LCI.

Climate change and coastal waterbird populations - past declines and future impacts

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of Twite Carduelis flavirostris wintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa islandica that shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes.

Age relationships beteen low level rock platforms and the high coastal slopes in Jersey and the surrounding area.

Recent research along the coastal cliffs and embayments of Jersey has revealed new aspects of the geomorphology of the rocky shore platform and its relationship with the steep slopes that link it to the island plateau above. Specifically, a rockhead platform meets a 10-30 m high, near vertical cliff at approximately 8-10 m above Jersey Datum (J.D.= ±0 m Ordnance Datum; likewise Guernsey Datum: G.D.), slopes down-towards mid-tide levels becoming ever more deeply dissected. Generalised contours of this platform show it to be distinct from a lower tidal rockhead platform which is comparatively smooth over large areas as it undergoes continuing contemporary abrasion. This lower platform is generally separated from the higher one by low cliffs, less than a metre high at mid-tidal levels, but two to three metres at the base of the backing cliffs. Both of these platforms are shown to antedate the Last Cold Stage (Devensian) head at a number of localities and this relationship is taken to represent the general situation, not only in Jersey, but throughout the other Channel Islands and adjacent coasts of Armorica. Whether either, or both, of these two platforms are older than Marine Oxygen Isotope Substage (MOIS) 5e (Ipswichian) as well is not known. However the considerable age of the numerous and wide intertidal shore platforms of the Channel Islands and adjacent coasts of Amorica makes a greater age quite possible.

An ECOOP web portal for visualising and comparing distributed coastal oceanography model and in situ data

As part of a large European coastal operational oceanography project (ECOOP), we have developed a web portal for the display and comparison of model and in situ marine data. The distributed model and in situ datasets are accessed via an Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) respectively. These services were developed independently and readily integrated for the purposes of the ECOOP project, illustrating the ease of interoperability resulting from adherence to international standards. The key feature of the portal is the ability to display co-plotted timeseries of the in situ and model data and the quantification of misfits between the two. By using standards-based web technology we allow the user to quickly and easily explore over twenty model data feeds and compare these with dozens of in situ data feeds without being concerned with the low level details of differing file formats or the physical location of the data. Scientific and operational benefits to this work include model validation, quality control of observations, data assimilation and decision support in near real time. In these areas it is essential to be able to bring different data streams together from often disparate locations.

The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we assess the impact of this uncertainty when calibrating a flood inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for a flood event in December 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK. The flood extent is delineated from an ERS-2 SAR image of the event using an active contour model (snake), and water levels at the flood margin calculated through intersection of the shoreline vector with LiDAR topographic data. Gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. Residuals between the satellite observed data points and those from the reference line are spatially clustered into groups of similar values. We show that model calibration achieved using pattern matching of observed and predicted flood extent is negatively influenced by this spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, model calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. To test the impact of removing spatial dependency a new method of evaluating flood inundation model performance is developed by using multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation data points. By testing for spatial dependency using Moran’s I, multiple subsamples of water elevations that have no significant spatial dependency are selected. The model is then calibrated against these data and the results averaged. This gives a near identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data, but has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Moreover, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess the effects of observational uncertainty on the assessment of flooding risk.

Integration of a 3D Variational data assimilation scheme with a coastal area morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay

This paper describes the implementation of a 3D variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme for a morphodynamic model applied to Morecambe Bay, UK. A simple decoupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model is combined with a data assimilation scheme to investigate the ability of such methods to improve the accuracy of the predicted bathymetry. The inverse forecast error covariance matrix is modelled using a Laplacian approximation which is calibrated for the length scale parameter required. Calibration is also performed for the Soulsby-van Rijn sediment transport equations. The data used for assimilation purposes comprises waterlines derived from SAR imagery covering the entire period of the model run, and swath bathymetry data collected by a ship-borne survey for one date towards the end of the model run. A LiDAR survey of the entire bay carried out in November 2005 is used for validation purposes. The comparison of the predictive ability of the model alone with the model-forecast-assimilation system demonstrates that using data assimilation significantly improves the forecast skill. An investigation of the assimilation of the swath bathymetry as well as the waterlines demonstrates that the overall improvement is initially large, but decreases over time as the bathymetry evolves away from that observed by the survey. The result of combining the calibration runs into a pseudo-ensemble provides a higher skill score than for a single optimized model run. A brief comparison of the Optimal Interpolation assimilation method with the 3D-Var method shows that the two schemes give similar results.

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters Executive summary Nature of the problem • Most regional watersheds in Europe constitute managed human territories importing large amounts of new reactive nitrogen. • As a consequence, groundwater, surface freshwater and coastal seawater are undergoing severe nitrogen contamination and/or eutrophication problems. Approaches • A comprehensive evaluation of net anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen (NANI) through atmospheric deposition, crop N fixation,fertiliser use and import of food and feed has been carried out for all European watersheds. A database on N, P and Si fluxes delivered at the basin outlets has been assembled. • A number of modelling approaches based on either statistical regression analysis or mechanistic description of the processes involved in nitrogen transfer and transformations have been developed for relating N inputs to watersheds to outputs into coastal marine ecosystems. Key findings/state of knowledge • Throughout Europe, NANI represents 3700 kgN/km2/yr (range, 0–8400 depending on the watershed), i.e. five times the background rate of natural N2 fixation. • A mean of approximately 78% of NANI does not reach the basin outlet, but instead is stored (in soils, sediments or ground water) or eliminated to the atmosphere as reactive N forms or as N2. • N delivery to the European marine coastal zone totals 810 kgN/km2/yr (range, 200–4000 depending on the watershed), about four times the natural background. In areas of limited availability of silica, these inputs cause harmful algal blooms. Major uncertainties/challenges • The exact dimension of anthropogenic N inputs to watersheds is still imperfectly known and requires pursuing monitoring programmes and data integration at the international level. • The exact nature of ‘retention’ processes, which potentially represent a major management lever for reducing N contamination of water resources, is still poorly understood. • Coastal marine eutrophication depends to a large degree on local morphological and hydrographic conditions as well as on estuarine processes, which are also imperfectly known. Recommendations • Better control and management of the nitrogen cascade at the watershed scale is required to reduce N contamination of ground- and surface water, as well as coastal eutrophication. • In spite of the potential of these management measures, there is no choice at the European scale but to reduce the primary inputs of reactive nitrogen to watersheds, through changes in agriculture, human diet and other N flows related to human activity.

Immune factors and fatty acid composition in human milk from river/lake, coastal and inland regions of China

Breast milk fatty acid composition may be affected by maternal diet during gestation and lactation. The influence of dietary and breast milk fatty acids on breast milk immune factors is poorly defined. We determined the fatty acid composition and immune factor concentrations of breast milk from women residing in river & lake, coastal, and inland regions of China, which differ in their consumption of lean fish and oily fish. Breast milk samples were collected on days 3 to 5 (colostrum), 14 and 28 post-partum and analysed for soluble CD14 (sCD14), transforming growth factor (TGF)-β1, TGF-β2, secretory immunoglobulin A (sIgA) and fatty acids. The fatty acid composition of breast milk differed between regions and with time post-partum. The concentrations of all four immune factors in breast milk decreased over time, with sCD14, sIgA and TGF-β1 being highest in colostrum in the river & lake region. Breast milk DHA and arachidonic acid (AA) were positively associated, and γ-linolenic acid and EPA negatively associated, with the concentrations of each of the four immune factors. In conclusion, breast milk fatty acids and immune factors differ between regions in China characterised by different patterns of fish consumption and change during the course of lactation. A higher breast milk DHA and AA concentration is associated with higher concentrations of immune factors in breast milk, suggesting a role for these fatty acids in promoting gastrointestinal and immune maturation of the infant.