982 resultados para choice modelling


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Publishers of academic journals can be seen as service providers to authors, in addition to the traditional role of providers of research results to readers. The purpose of this study was to analyse how author choices of journal in construction management are affected by quality and service perceptions. Seven journals were identified and for each 2006 article, one author e-mail address was extracted. A web based questionnaire was sent to 397 authors and 35% responded. It was found that there were three journals regularly followed by at least half the respondents. Most of the other four journals have scopes broader than construction management and receive lower scores for characteristics such as impact on researchers. No open access journals were included, and authors in the field of construction management rarely post openly accessible copies of their manuscripts or publications on the web. Author ranking of journals for their next submission is found to be related to general criteria such as academic status, circulation figures and ISI indexation.

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Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

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The radial current density on an MPD arcjet cathode surface is theoretically investigated for five propellants. It is found that excessive current concentration at the upstream end of the cathode occurs in the case of hydrogen. This undesirable effect is traced to the higher electrical conductivity of hydrogen plasma.

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The purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of uncertainty in a model of real estate investment in Finland during the hihhly cyclical period of 1975 to 1998. We use two alternative measures of uncertainty. The first measure is the volatility of stock market returns and the second measure is the heterogeneity in the answers of the quarterly business survey of the Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers. The econometric analysis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model and the paper applies a 'general-to-specific' modelling approach. We find that the measure of heterogeneity is significant in the model, but the volatility of stock market returns is not. The empirical results give some evidence of an uncertainty-induced threshold slowing down real estate investment in Finland.

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This paper deals with the simulation-driven study of the impact of hardened steel projectiles on thin aluminium target plates using explicit finite element analysis as implemented in LS-DYNA. The evaluation of finite element modelling includes a comprehensive mesh convergence study using shell elements for representing target plates and the solid element-based representation of ogivalnosed projectiles. A user-friendly automatic contact detection algorithm is used for capturing interaction between the projectile and the target plate. It is shown that the proper choice of mesh density and strain rate-dependent material properties is crucial as these parameters significantly affect the computed residual velocity. The efficacy of correlation with experimental data is adjudged in terms of a 'correlation index' defined in the present study for which values close to unity are desirable.By simulating laboratory impact tests on thin aluminium plates carried out by earlier investigators, extremely good prediction of experimental ballistic limits has been observed with correlation indices approaching unity. Additional simulation-based parametric studies have been carried out and results consistent with test data have been obtained. The simulation procedures followed in the present study can be applied with confidence in designing thin aluminium armour plates for protection against low calibre projectiles.

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Males of several acoustically communicating orthopteran species form spatially and temporally structured choruses. We investigated whether male field crickets of the species Plebeiogryllus guttiventris formed choruses in the field. Males formed spatial aggregations and showed fidelity to a calling site within a night, forming stable choruses. Within aggregations, the acoustic ranges of males overlapped considerably. We tested whether males within hearing range of each other interacted acoustically. The chirps of simultaneously calling males were aphasic with respect to each other and showed no significant alternation or synchrony of calls. Some individuals changed temporal features of their calling songs such as chirp durations and chirp rates in response to a simultaneously calling neighbour. The implications of these results for female mate choice are discussed

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The modes of binding of alpha- and beta-anomers of D-galactose, D-fucose and D-glucose to L-arabinose-binding protein (ABP) have been studied by energy minimization using the low resolution (2.4 A) X-ray data of the protein. These studies suggest that these sugars preferentially bind in the alpha-form to ABP, unlike L-arabinose where both alpha- and beta-anomers bind almost equally. The best modes of binding of alpha- and beta-anomers of D-galactose and D-fucose differ slightly in the nature of the possible hydrogen bonds with the protein. The residues Arg 151 and Asn 232 of ABP from bidentate hydrogen bonds with both L-arabinose and D-galactose, but not with D-fucose or D-glucose. However in the case of L-arabinose, Arg 151 forms hydrogen bonds with the hydroxyl group at the C-4 atom and the ring oxygen, whereas in case of D-galactose it forms bonds with the hydroxyl groups at the C-4 and C-6 atoms of the pyranose ring. The calculated conformational energies also predict that D-galactose is a better inhibitor than D-fucose and D-glucose, in agreement with kinetic studies. The weak inhibitor D-glucose binds preferentially to one domain of ABP leading to the formation of a weaker complex. Thus these studies provide information about the most probable binding modes of these sugars and also provide a theoretical explanation for the observed differences in their binding affinities.

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Yhteenveto: Laajan merialueen dynamiikan mallintaminen

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Void breaking and formation in a packed bed are important phenomena in stabilising and optimising the performance of reactors such as the blast furnace, spouted bed and catalytic regenerator. These phenomena have been studied using a mathematical model. The model is based on a previously published force balance approach to predict the cavity size. Limited numbers of experiments, at room temperature, have been carried out in order to compare the experimental results with theory. A good agreement has been found between the experimental and theoretical results. In addition, the predictions have been compared with published data, which give reasonable agreement. The role of various forces (friction, pressure and bed weight) on void initiation and breaking has been investigated. The effect of bed height, particle diameter and density, void fraction, as well as gas flow rate on void formation and breaking has also been studied.

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The Government of India has announced the Greening India Mission (GIM) under the National Climate Change Action Plan. The Mission aims to restore and afforest about 10 mha over the period 2010-2020 under different sub-missions covering moderately dense and open forests, scrub/grasslands, mangroves, wetlands, croplands and urban areas. Even though the main focus of the Mission is to address mitigation and adaptation aspects in the context of climate change, the adaptation component is inadequately addressed. There is a need for increased scientific input in the preparation of the Mission. The mitigation potential is estimated by simply multiplying global default biomass growth rate values and area. It is incomplete as it does not include all the carbon pools, phasing, differing growth rates, etc. The mitigation potential estimated using the Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process model for the GIM for the year 2020 has the potential to offset 6.4% of the projected national greenhouse gas emissions, compared to the GIM estimate of only 1.5%, excluding any emissions due to harvesting or disturbances. The selection of potential locations for different interventions and species choice under the GIM must be based on the use of modelling, remote sensing and field studies. The forest sector provides an opportunity to promote mitigation and adaptation synergy, which is not adequately addressed in the GIM. Since many of the interventions proposed are innovative and limited scientific knowledge exists, there is need for an unprecedented level of collaboration between the research institutions and the implementing agencies such as the Forest Departments, which is currently non-existent. The GIM could propel systematic research into forestry and climate change issues and thereby provide global leadership in this new and emerging science.

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A higher-order theory of laminated composites under in-plane loads is developed. The displacement field is expanded in terms of the thickness co-ordinate, satisfying the zero shear stress condition at the surfaces of the laminate. Using the principle of virtual displacement, the governing equations and boundary conditions are established. Numerical results for interlaminar stresses arising in the case of symmetric laminates under uniform extension have been obtained and are compared with similar results available in the literature.