Intra-Euro rebalancing is inevitable, but insufficient. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/15, August 2012

Greece, Portugal and Spain face a serious risk of external solvency due to their close to minus 100 percent of GDP net negative international investment positions, which are largely composed of debt. The perceived inability of these countries to rebalance their external positions is a major root of the euro crisis. Intra-euro rebalancing through declines in unit labour costs (ULC) in southern Europe, and ULC increases in northern Europe should continue, but has limits because: The share of intra-euro trade has declined. Intra-euro trade balances have already adjusted to a great extent. The intra-euro real exchange rates of Greece, Portugal and Spain have also either already adjusted or do not indicate significant appreciations since 2000. There are only two main current account surplus countries, Germany and the Netherlands. A purely intra-euro adjustment strategy would require too-significant wage increases in northern countries and wage declines in southern countries, which do not seem to be feasible. Before the crisis, the euro was significantly overvalued despite the close-to balanced current account position. The euro has depreciated recently, but more is needed to support the extra-euro trade of southern euro-area members. A weaker euro would also boost exports, growth, inflation and wage increases in Germany, thereby helping further intra-euro adjustment and the survival of the euro.

Long-term change, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in climate and glacier mass balance in the Central Greater Caucasus, Russia

Long-term trends, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in the mass-balance record from Djankuat glacier, central Greater Caucasus, Russia, are related to local climate change, synoptic and large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation. A clear warming signal emerged in the central Greater Caucasus in the early 1990s, leading to a strong increase in ablation. In the absence of a compensating change in winter accumulation, the net mass balance of Djankuat has declined. The highest value of seasonal ablation on record was registered in the summer of 2000. At the beginning of the 21st century these trends reversed. Ablation was below average even in the summer of 2003, which was unusually warm in western Europe. Precipitation and winter accumulation were high, allowing for a partial recovery of net mass balance. The interannual variability in the components of mass balance is weakly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian teleconnection patterns, but there is a clear link with the large-scale circulation anomalies represented by the Rossby pattern. Five synoptic categories have been identified for the ablation season of 2005, revealing a strong separation between components of radiation budget, air temperature and daily melt. Air temperature is the main control over melt. The highest values of daily ablation are related to the strongly positive NAO which forces high net radiation, and to the warm and moist advection from the Black Sea.

Factors governing cellular convection in orographic precipitation

The development of shallow cellular convection in warm orographic clouds is investigated through idealized numerical simulations of moist flow over topography using a cloud-resolving numerical model. Buoyant instability, a necessary element for moist convection, is found to be diagnosed most accurately through analysis of the moist Brunt–Väisälä frequency (N_m) rather than the vertical profile of θ_e. In statically unstable orographic clouds (N_m^2) < 0), additional environmental and terrain-related factors are shown to have major effects on the amount of cellularity that occurs in 2D simulations. One of these factors, the basic-state wind shear, may suppress convection in 2D yet allow for longitudinal convective roll circulations in 3D. The presence of convective structures within an orographic cloud substantially enhanced the maximum rainfall rates, precipitation efficiencies, and precipitation accumulations in all simulations.

Metal bioaccumulation and cellular fractionation in an epigeic earthworm (Lumbricus rubellus): the interactive influences of population exposure histories, site-specific geochemistry and mitochondrial genotype

Subcellular fractionation techniques were used to describe temporal changes (at intervals from T0 to T70 days) in the Pb, Zn and P partitioning profiles of Lumbricus rubellus populations from one calcareous (MDH) and one acidic (MCS) geographically isolated Pb/Zn-mine sites and one reference site (CPF). MDH and MCS individuals were laboratory maintained on their native field soils; CPF worms were exposed to both MDH and MCS soils. Site-specific differences in metal partitioning were found: notably, the putatively metal-adapted populations, MDH and MCS, preferentially partitioned higher proportions of their accumulated tissue metal burdens into insoluble CaPO4-rich organelles compared with naive counterparts, CPF. Thus, it is plausible that efficient metal immobilization is a phenotypic trait characterising metal tolerant ecotypes. Mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase II (COII) genotyping revealed that the populations indigenous to mine and reference soils belong to distinct genetic lineages, differentiated by 13%, with 7 haplotypes within the reference site lineage but fewer (3 and 4, respectively) in the lineage common to the two mine sites. Collectively, these observations raise the possibility that site-related genotype differences could influence the toxico-availability of metals and, thus, represent a potential confounding variable in field-based eco-toxicological assessments.

Incorporation of cis-9,trans-11 or trans-10,cis-12 conjugated linoleic acid into plasma and cellular lipids in healthy men

This study investigated the incorporation of cis-9,trans-11 conjugated linoleic acid (c9,t11 CLA) and trans-10,cis-12-CLA (t10,c12 CLA) into plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) lipids when consumed as supplements highly enriched in these isomers. Healthy men (n = 49, age 31 +/- 8 years) consumed one, two, and four capsules containing similar to600 mg of either c9,t11 CIA or t10,c12 CLA per capsule for sequential 8 week periods followed by a 6 week washout before consuming the alternative isomer. Both isomers were incorporated in a dosedependent manner into plasma phosphatidylcholine (PC) (c9,t11 CLA r = 0.779, t10,c12 CLA r = 0.738; P < 0.0001) and cholesteryl ester (CE) (c9,t11 CLA r = 0.706, t10,c12 CLA r = 0.788; P < 0.0001). Only t10,c12 CLA was enriched in plasma nonesterified fatty acids. Both c9,t11 CIA and t10,c12 CLA were incorporated linearly into PBMC total lipids (r = 0.285 and r = 0.273, respectively; P < 0.0005). The highest concentrations of c9,t11 CLA and t10,c12 CLA in PBMC lipids were 3- to 4-fold lower than those in plasma PC and CE. These data suggest that the level of intake is a major determinant of plasma and PBMC CLA content, although PBMCs appear to incorporate both CLA isomers less readily.

Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.

Intra-individual variation of flowers in Gunnera subgenus Panke (Gunneraceae) and proposed apomorphies for Gunnerales

A study of inflorescence and flower development in 12 species from four of the six subgenera of Gunnera (Gunneraceae) was carried out. In the species of subgenus Panke, initiation of floral apices along the partial inflorescences is acropetal but ends up in the late formation of a terminal flower, forming a cyme at maturity. The terminal flower is the largest and the most complete in terms of merosity and number of whorls and thus it is the most diagnostic in terms of species-level taxonomy. The lateral flowers undergo a basipetal gradient of organ reduction along the inflorescence, ranging from bisexual flowers (towards the distal region) to functionally (i.e. with staminodia) and structurally female flowers (towards the proximal region). Our results show that the terminal structure in Gunnera is a flower rather than a pseudanthium. The terminal flower is disymmetric, dimerous and bisexual, representing the common bauplan for Gunnera flowers. It has a differentiated perianth with two sepals and two alternate petals, the latter opposite the stamens and carpels. Comparisons with other members of the core eudicots with labile floral construction are addressed. We propose vegetative and floral putative synapomorphies for the sister-group relationship between Gunneraceae and Myrothamnaceae. (C) 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 160, 262-283.

Intra-specific variation affects the structure of the natural enemy assemblage attacking pea aphid colonies

1. Intra-specific variation in plant defence traits has been shown to profoundly affect herbivore community structure. Here we describe two experiments designed to test whether similar effects occur at higher trophic levels, by studying pea aphid–natural enemy interactions in a disused pasture in southern England. 2. In the first experiment, the numbers and identity of natural enemies attacking different monoclonal pea aphid colonies were recorded in a series of assays throughout the period of pea aphid activity. 3. In the summer assay, there was a significant effect of clone on the numbers of aphidophagous hoverfly larvae and the total number of non-hoverfly natural enemies recruited. Clone also appeared to influence the attack rate suffered by the primary predator in the system, the hoverfly Episyrphus balteatus, by Diplazon laetatorius, an ichneumonid parasitoid. Colonies were generally driven to extinction by hoverfly attack, resulting in the recording of low numbers of parasitoids and entomopathogens, suggesting intense intra-guild predation. 4. To further examine the influence of clonal variation on the recruitment of natural enemies, a second experiment was performed to monitor the temporal dynamics of community development. Colonies were destructively sampled every other day and the numbers of natural enemies attacking aphid colonies were recorded. These data demonstrated that clonal variation influenced the timing, abundance, and identity of natural enemies attacking aphid colonies. 5. Taken together, these data suggest that clonal variation may have a significant influence on the patterns of interactions between aphids and their natural enemies, and that such effects are likely to affect our understanding of the ecology and biological control of these insect herbivores.