Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

Toxicological aspects of treatment to remove cyanobacterial toxins from drinking water determined using the heterozygous P53 transgenic mouse model

The presence of toxic cyanobacteria in drinking water reservoirs renders the need to develop treatment methods for the 'safe' removal of their associated toxins. Chlorine has been shown to successfully remove a range of cyanotoxins including microcystins, cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxins. Each cyanotoxin requires specific treatment parameters, particularly solution pH and free chlorine residual. However, currently there has not been any investigation into the toxicological effect of solutions treated for the removal of these cyanotoxins by chlorine. Using the P53(def) transgenic mouse model mate and female C57BL/6J hybrid mice were used to investigate potential cancer inducing effects from such oral dosing solutions. Both purified cyanotoxins and toxic cell-free extract cyanobacterial solutions were chlorinated and administered over 90 and 170 days (respectively) in drinking water. No increase in cancer was found in any treatment. The parent cyanotoxins, microcystins, cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxins were readily removed by chlorine. There was no significant increase in the disinfection byproducts trihalomethanes or haloacetic acids, levels found were well below guideline values. Histological examination identified no effect of treatment solutions except male mice treated with chlorinated cylindrospermopsin (as a cell free extract). In this instance 40% of males were found to have fatty vacuolation in their livers, cause unknown. It is recommended that further toxicology be undertaken on chlorinated cyanobacterial solutions, particularly for non-genotoxic carcinogenic compounds, for example the Tg. AC transgenic mouse model. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estudo da camada limite atmosférica em regiões metropolitanas costeiras com simulações de brisa marítima

O principal objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar e caracterizar a evolução diária da Camada Limite Atmosférica (CLA) na Região da Grande Vitória (RGV), Estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil e na Região de Dunkerque (RD), Departamento Nord Pas-de-Calais, França, avaliando a acurácia de parametrizações usadas no modelo meteorológico Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) em detectar a formação e atributos da Camada Limite Interna (CLI) que é formada pelas brisas marítimas. A RGV tem relevo complexo, em uma região costeira de topografia acidentada e uma cadeia de montanhas paralela à costa. A RD tem relevo simples, em uma região costeira com pequenas ondulações que não chegam a ultrapassar 150 metros, ao longo do domínio de estudos. Para avaliar os resultados dos prognósticos feitos pelo modelo, foram utilizados os resultados de duas campanhas: uma realizada na cidade de Dunkerque, no norte da França, em Julho de 2009, utilizando um sistema light detection and ranging (LIDAR), um sonic detection and ranging (SODAR) e dados de uma estação meteorológica de superfície (EMS); outra realizada na cidade de Vitória – Espírito Santo, no mês de julho de 2012, também usando um LIDAR, um SODAR e dados de uma EMS. Foram realizadas simulações usando três esquemas de parametrizações para a CLA, dois de fechamento não local, Yonsei University (YSU) e Asymmetric Convective Model 2 (ACM2) e um de fechamento local, Mellor Yamada Janjic (MYJ) e dois esquemas de camada superficial do solo (CLS), Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) e Noah. Tanto para a RGV quanto para a RD, foram feitas simulações com as seis possíveis combinações das três parametrizações de CLA e as duas de CLS, para os períodos em que foram feitas as campanhas, usando quatro domínios aninhados, sendo os três maiores quadrados com dimensões laterais de 1863 km, 891 km e 297 km, grades de 27 km, 9 km e 3 km, respectivamente, e o domínio de estudo, com dimensões de 81 km na direção Norte-Sul e 63 km na Leste-Oeste, grade de 1 km, com 55 níveis verticais, até um máximo de, aproximadamente, 13.400 m, mais concentrados próximos ao solo. Os resultados deste trabalho mostraram que: a) dependendo da configuração adotada, o esforço computacional pode aumentar demasiadamente, sem que ocorra um grande aumento na acurácia dos resultados; b) para a RD, a simulação usando o conjunto de parametrizações MYJ para a CLA com a parametrização Noah produziu a melhor estimativa captando os fenômenos da CLI. As simulações usando as parametrizações ACM2 e YSU inferiram a entrada da brisa com atraso de até três horas; c) para a RGV, a simulação que usou as parametrizações YSU para a CLA em conjunto com a parametrização Noah para CLS foi a que conseguiu fazer melhores inferências sobre a CLI. Esses resultados sugerem a necessidade de avaliações prévias do esforço computacional necessário para determinadas configurações, e sobre a acurácia de conjuntos de parametrizações específicos para cada região pesquisada. As diferenças estão associadas com a capacidade das diferentes parametrizações em captar as informações superficiais provenientes das informações globais, essenciais para determinar a intensidade de mistura turbulenta vertical e temperatura superficial do solo, sugerindo que uma melhor representação do uso de solo é fundamental para melhorar as estimativas sobre a CLI e demais parâmetros usados por modelos de dispersão de poluentes atmosféricos.

Um algoritmo PSO híbrido para planejamento de caminhos em navegação de veículos utilizando A*

Utilizar robôs autônomos capazes de planejar o seu caminho é um desafio que atrai vários pesquisadores na área de navegação de robôs. Neste contexto, este trabalho tem como objetivo implementar um algoritmo PSO híbrido para o planejamento de caminhos em ambientes estáticos para veículos holonômicos e não holonômicos. O algoritmo proposto possui duas fases: a primeira utiliza o algoritmo A* para encontrar uma trajetória inicial viável que o algoritmo PSO otimiza na segunda fase. Por fim, uma fase de pós planejamento pode ser aplicada no caminho a fim de adaptá-lo às restrições cinemáticas do veículo não holonômico. O modelo Ackerman foi considerado para os experimentos. O ambiente de simulação de robótica CARMEN (Carnegie Mellon Robot Navigation Toolkit) foi utilizado para realização de todos os experimentos computacionais considerando cinco instâncias de mapas geradas artificialmente com obstáculos. O desempenho do algoritmo desenvolvido, A*PSO, foi comparado com os algoritmos A*, PSO convencional e A* Estado Híbrido. A análise dos resultados indicou que o algoritmo A*PSO híbrido desenvolvido superou em qualidade de solução o PSO convencional. Apesar de ter encontrado melhores soluções em 40% das instâncias quando comparado com o A*, o A*PSO apresentou trajetórias com menos pontos de guinada. Investigando os resultados obtidos para o modelo não holonômico, o A*PSO obteve caminhos maiores entretanto mais suaves e seguros.

A creative solution for rapid and inexpensive model-making in product design processes

Rapid prototyping (RP) is an approach for automatically building a physical object through solid freeform fabrication. Nowadays, RP has become a vital aspect of most product development processes, due to the significant competitive advantages it offers compared to traditional manual model making. Even in academic environments, it is important to be able to quickly create accurate physical representations of concept solutions. Some of these can be used for simple visual validation, while others can be employed for ergonomic assessment by potential users or even for physical testing. However, the cost of traditional RP methods prevents their use in most academic environments on a regular basis, and even for very preliminary prototypes in many small companies. That results in delaying the first physical prototypes to later stages, or creating very rough mock-ups which are not as useful as they could be. In this paper we propose an approach for rapid and inexpensive model-making, which was developed in an academic context, and which can be employed for a variety of objects.

A generic model for integration of Quality, Environment and Safety Management Systems

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a generic model of Integrated Management System of Quality, Environment and Safety (IMS-QES) that can be adapted and progressively to assimilate various Management Systems, of which highlights: ISO 9001 for Quality; ISO 14001 for Environment; OHSAS 18001 for Occupational Health and Safety. Design/methodology/approach – The model was designed in the real environment of a Portuguese Organization and 160 employees were surveyed. The rate response was equal to 86 percent. The conceived model was implemented in a first phase for the integration of Quality, Environment and Safety Management Systems. Findings – Among the main findings of the survey the paper highlights: the elimination of conflicts between individual systems with resources optimization; creation of added value to the business by eliminating several types of wastes; the integrated management of sustainability components in a global market; the improvement of partnerships with suppliers of goods and services; reducing the number of internal and external audits. Originality/value – This case study is one of the first Portuguese empirical researches about IMS-QES and the paper believes that it can be useful in the creation of a Portuguese guideline for integration, namely the Quality Management Systems; Environmental Management Systems and Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems among others.

Towards a model for the measurement of data quality in websites

Websites are, nowadays, the face of institutions, but they are often neglected, especially when it comes to contents. In the present paper, we put forth an investigation work whose final goal is the development of a model for the measurement of data quality in institutional websites for health units. To that end, we have carried out a bibliographic review of the available approaches for the evaluation of website content quality, in order to identify the most recurrent dimensions and the attributes, and we are currently carrying out a Delphi Method process, presently in its second stage, with the purpose of reaching an adequate set of attributes for the measurement of content quality.

Fast left ventricle tracking in CMR images using localized anatomical affine optical flow

In daily cardiology practice, assessment of left ventricular (LV) global function using non-invasive imaging remains central for the diagnosis and follow-up of patients with cardiovascular diseases. Despite the different methodologies currently accessible for LV segmentation in cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) images, a fast and complete LV delineation is still limitedly available for routine use. In this study, a localized anatomically constrained affine optical flow method is proposed for fast and automatic LV tracking throughout the full cardiac cycle in short-axis CMR images. Starting from an automatically delineated LV in the end-diastolic frame, the endocardial and epicardial boundaries are propagated by estimating the motion between adjacent cardiac phases using optical flow. In order to reduce the computational burden, the motion is only estimated in an anatomical region of interest around the tracked boundaries and subsequently integrated into a local affine motion model. Such localized estimation enables to capture complex motion patterns, while still being spatially consistent. The method was validated on 45 CMR datasets taken from the 2009 MICCAI LV segmentation challenge. The proposed approach proved to be robust and efficient, with an average distance error of 2.1 mm and a correlation with reference ejection fraction of 0.98 (1.9 ± 4.5%). Moreover, it showed to be fast, taking 5 seconds for the tracking of a full 4D dataset (30 ms per image). Overall, a novel fast, robust and accurate LV tracking methodology was proposed, enabling accurate assessment of relevant global function cardiac indices, such as volumes and ejection fraction.

A model of destination competitiveness/sustainability: Brazilian perspectives

This paper reviews the understanding I have gained from several years of research, and from several more years of ongoing discussions with industry leaders regarding the nature of competitiveness among tourism destinations. This understanding has been captured, in summary form, in the model of Destination Competitiveness/Sustainability (Ritchie and Crouch, 2003). This model contains seven (7) components which we have found to play a major role, from a policy perspective, in determining the competitiveness/sustainability of a tourism destination. In addition to the valuable understanding which these seven components provide from a policy perspective, the specific elements of each the major components provide a more useful/practical guidance to those who are responsible for the ongoing management of a DMO (Destination Management Organization). With this overview in mind, this paper will provide a detailed review and explanation of the model that I have developed with colleague, Dr. Geoffrey I. Crouch of Latrobe University in Melbourne, Australia. Based on previous presentations throughout the world, it has proven very helpful to both academics and practitioners who seek to understand the complex nature of tourism destination competitiveness/sustainability.

A System Dynamics-Based Simulation Experiment for Testing Mental Model and Performance Effects of Using the Balanced Scorecard

This study develops a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard approach by means of a system dynamics and feedback learning perspective. Presumably, the balanced scorecard leads to a better understanding of context, allowing managers to externalize and improve their mental models. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of the balanced scorecard approach on mental models and performance. A test based on a simulation experiment that uses a system dynamics model is performed. The experiment included three types of parameters: financial indicators; balanced scorecard indicators; and balanced scorecard indicators with the aid of a strategy map review. Two out of the three hypotheses were confirmed. It was concluded that a strategy map review positively influences mental model similarity, and mental model similarity positively influences performance.

Studies in search of a suitable experimental insect model for xenodiagnosis of hosts with Chagas' disease: 3 - On the interaction of vector species and parasite strain in the reaction of bugs to infection by Trypanosoma cruzi

The reaction of nine vector species of Chagas' disease to infection by seven different Trypanosoma cruzi strains; Berenice, Y, FL, CL, S. Felipe, Colombiana and Gávea, are examined and compared. On the basis of the insects' ability to establish and maintain the infection, vector species could be divided into two distinct groups which differ in their reaction to an acute infection by T. cruzi. While the proportion of positive bugs was found to be low in Triatoma infestans and Triatoma dimidiata it was high, ranging from 96.9% to 100% in the group of wild (Rhodnius neglectus, Triatoma rubrovaria)and essentially sylvatic vectors in process of adaptation to human dwellings, maintained under control following successful insecticidal elimination of Triatoma infestans (Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma sordida and Triatoma pseudomaculata). An intermediate position is held by Triatoma brasiliensis and Rhodnius prolixus. This latter has been found to interchange between domestic and sylvatic environments. The most important finding is the strikingly good reaction between each species of the sylvatic bugs and practically all T. cruzi strains herein studied, thus indicating that the factors responsible for the excellent reaction of P.megistus to infection by Y strain, as previously reported also come into operation in the reaction of the same vector species to acute infections by five of the remaining T.cruzi strains. Comparison or data reported by other investigators with those herein described form the basis of the discussion of Dipetalogaster maximus as regards its superiority as a xenodiagnostic agent.

The Sticky Information Macro Model: Beyond Perfect Foresight

Sticky information monetary models have been used in the macroeconomic literature to explain some of the observed features regarding inflation dynamics. In this paper, we explore the consequences of relaxing the rational expectations assumption usually taken in this type of model; in particular, by considering expectations formed through adaptive learning, it is possible to arrive to results other than the trivial convergence to a fixed point long-term equilibrium. The results involve the possibility of endogenous cyclical motion (periodic and a-periodic), which emerges essentially in scenarios of hyperinflation. In low inflation settings, the introduction of learning implies a less severe impact of monetary shocks that, nevertheless, tend to last for additional time periods relative to the pure perfect foresight setup.

Studies in search of a suitable experimental insect model for xenodiagnosis of hosts with Chagas' disease: 4 - The reflection of parasite stock in the responsiveness of different vector species to chronic infection with different Trypanosoma cruzi stocks

Previous studies (1982,1987) have emphasized the superiority of sylvatic vector species over domestic species as xenodiagnostic agents in testing hosts with acute or chronic infections by T. cruzi "Y" stock. The present study, which is unique in that it contains data on both infectivity rates produced by the same stock in 11 different vector species and also the reaction of the same vector species to seven different parasite stocks, establishes the general validity of linking efficiency of xenodiagnosis to the biotope of its agent. For example, infectivity rates produced by "São Felipe" stock varied from 82.5% to 98.3% in sylvatic vectors but decreased to 42.5% to 71.3% in domestic species. "Colombiana" stock produced in the same sylvatic vectors infectivity rates ranging from 12.5% to 45%. These shrank to 5%-22.5% in domestic bugs. The functional role of the biotope in the vector-parasite interaction has not been eluddated. But since this phenomenon has been observed to be stable and easy to reproduce, it leads us to believe that the results obtained are valid. Data presented also provide increasing evidence that the infectivity rates exhibited by bugs from xenodiagnosis in chronic hosts, are parasite stock specific. For example, infectivity rates produced by "Berenice", "Y", "FL" and "CL" varied in R. neglectus from 26.3% to 75%; in P. megistus from 56.3% to 83.8%; in T. sordida from 28.8% to 58.8% in T. pseudomaculata from 41.3% to 66.3% and in T. rubrovaria from 48.8% to 85%. Data from xenodiagnosis in the same hosts, carrying acute infections by the same parasite stocks, gave the five sylvatic vectors a positive rating of approximately 100%, thus suggesting that the heavy loads of parasites circulating in the acute hosts obscured the characteristic interspecific differences for the parasite stock. Nonetheless these latter were revealed in the same hosts with chronic infections stimulated by very low numbers of the same parasite stocks. Certain observations here described lead us to speculate as to the possibility of further results from other parasite stocks, allowing the association of the infectivity rates produced in bugs by different parasite stocks with the isoenzymic patterns revealed by these stocks.

SAR calculation using FDTD simulations

The main intend of this work, is to determinate the Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) on human head tissues exposed to radiation caused by sources of 900 and 1800MHz, since those are the typical frequencies for mobile communications systems nowadays. In order to determinate the SAR, has been used the FDTD (Finite Difference Time Domain), which is a numeric method in time domain, obtained from the Maxwell equations in differential mode. In order to do this, a computational model from the human head in two dimensions made with cells of the smallest possible size was implemented, respecting the limits from computational processing. It was possible to verify the very good efficiency of the FDTD method in the resolution of those types of problems.

Surgical correction of scoliosis: Numerical analysis and optimization of the procedure

A previously developed model is used to numerically simulate real clinical cases of the surgical correction of scoliosis. This model consists of one-dimensional finite elements with spatial deformation in which (i) the column is represented by its axis; (ii) the vertebrae are assumed to be rigid; and (iii) the deformability of the column is concentrated in springs that connect the successive rigid elements. The metallic rods used for the surgical correction are modeled by beam elements with linear elastic behavior. To obtain the forces at the connections between the metallic rods and the vertebrae geometrically, non-linear finite element analyses are performed. The tightening sequence determines the magnitude of the forces applied to the patient column, and it is desirable to keep those forces as small as possible. In this study, a Genetic Algorithm optimization is applied to this model in order to determine the sequence that minimizes the corrective forces applied during the surgery. This amounts to find the optimal permutation of integers 1, ... , n, n being the number of vertebrae involved. As such, we are faced with a combinatorial optimization problem isomorph to the Traveling Salesman Problem. The fitness evaluation requires one computing intensive Finite Element Analysis per candidate solution and, thus, a parallel implementation of the Genetic Algorithm is developed.